Friday, October 26, 2012

Medium Term Goal Forecast

The mechanics of the new model were expanded on here, so check that out specific questions on how the below forecasts differ from the old goals based system (clue: the differences are varied and significant!). While the weekly forecast is more related to line-up decisions, the below chart should hopefully help with transfer decisions and longer term planning.

Attacking Forecast

Defensive Forecast
Weekly Forecast Predicted goals per game scored for the next eight gameweeks, based on shot data and team conversion rates
Avg Average goals per game forecast for the next eight gameweeks
Gr The percentage of 'green light' games over the next eight gameweeks, currently defined as a forecast goal tally equal or greater than two for attacking sides and less than one for defensive teams.
Am The percentage of 'amber' games over the next eight gameweeks, currently defined as a forecast goal tally between 1 and 2.
Rd The percentage of 'red light' games over the next eight gameweeks, currently defined as a forecast goal tally less than or equal to 1 for attacking teams or more than two for defensive teams.

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