Tuesday, August 31, 2010
REAL MADRID TRANSFER VAN DER VAART TO TOTTENHAM
REAL MADRID has come to an agreement with English Club TOTTENHAM for the transfer of midfielder RAFAEL VAN DER VAART. The operation is speculated to be around 11M€However there could be a problem with the shutting of the English transfer market period. Both Clubs insist that the agreement was finalized before zero hour - shutting time. The paper work on the otherhand may have arrive late & here
Undervalued Teammates
One of the easiest ways to save money without losing too much production is to look for players that are cheaper than their teammates but still play similar levels of minutes. This is a hallowed strategy in fantasy circles and needs no further explanation here.
What I do want to discuss is (a) which players allow us to execute this strategy and (b) is this strategy always reliable.
Undervalued teammates
How comfortable would you be picking your weekly defence from Richard Dunne, John Terry, Nemanja Vidic, Roger Johnson and Jody Craddock? Last season these players ranked 1st, 3rd, 8th, 18th, and 35th (Vidic was injured) among all defenders in the game and totalled 657 points between them. At the same PPG rates this year they would amass 630 points even if they each played in a conservative 32 games each (or an incredible 749 points if they each played every week). At the time of writing this group of players will set you back 31.0m which means you would receive a PPMS of 0.636. Solid numbers but not amazing value when you consider that no less than 17 defenders delivered a PPMS above 0.800 last season (only taking those players who played more than 1,000 minutes).
Now how would you like to have this group for 25.1m (and bag a PPMS of 0.784)? You could select Luke Young (saving 2.0m), Alex (saving 0.9m), John O’Shea (saving 1.5m), Scott Dann (saving 0.5m) and Steve Foley (saving 1.0m) and still get the same clean sheet points as the aforementioned star lineup. After all, the raison d’être of defenders is to defend and win clean sheets, doing so as a unit and hence rising and falling as a team. With that in mind, my favourite undervalued teammates are below (keep reading below them for the caveat of this analysis):
Alex (6.1m)
Barring injury or an unexpected signing by Chelsea I think Alex will finish the season as one the highest value players available. The issue of who will partner Terry appears to have been settled and Ferreira’s performance at right back have been shaky suggesting that Ivanovic will lock down that spot, making this one of the more settled backlines around. Sure, he might lose the odd game for Champions League rotation but I think Alex tops 30 games easily this term. Also, consider his love for the occasional long shot and free kick and he may even outscore Terry in the non-defensive point rankings .Alex is no more risky than any top level player and deserves to be held by substantially more than his current 6% holding.
Luke Young (5.0m)
I am not as confident on Young as Alex for two fairly obvious reasons:
Paul Koncesky (5.0m)
Though not always true, you have to assume that a manager brings in new players to play each week, a scenario that would make Konchesky outstanding value at 5.0m. Available for 2.5m less than Glen Johnson (8% owned), this difference would represent the largest discrepancy among all teammates this season. True, Liverpool do not appear to be a defensive force this season but Hodgson made Fulham very solid in his time there and you have to think that this unit will improve at some point. Remember too that they have already faced Arsenal and City, while recording a clean sheet against West Brom in GW3. Watch this situation closely and jump on Konchesky as soon as it becomes evident he will start at LB (perhaps even wait until after the trip to Birmingham in GW4 to be sure).
John O’Shea (5.5m)
Many owners were on Johnny Evans early and he has delivered good value with two clean sheets in the first 3 weeks. However, the return of Ferdinand is imminent and that should put pay to Evans run in the side. O’Shea however is a different story. Rafael, Neville and Smalling were supposed to be threats to his minutes but so far they have not managed to wrestle a single one from him (Vidic and Evans meanwhile have both been subbed this season). An added bonus is that if Ferguson wishes to give Rafael a run out, O’Shea still has a chance to start elsewhere in the team due to his versatility. I think it is safe to target O’Shea now so long as you can handle the games he will occasionally miss by having a decent bench.
Steve Foley (4.0m)
Wolves have been become a useful unit and are very hard to beat. They have conceded a goal in each of their three games this year against okay opposition but I can see them getting a few clean sheets when all is said and done. At 4m Foley is as cheap as you get for your backline and as an every week player he represents good value, ahead of the higher owned Berra and Ward, and the ridiculously overpriced Craddock.
There are a couple of other candidates that could be thrown onto this list, including Micah Richards, Martin Skrtel, Tony Hibbert, and Steve GohouriBoateng) or they are the cheapest player on a garbage team (Gohouri).
Testing the theory
I noted above that there is a caveat to the above picks and it needs elaborating here. While defenders’ main job is to defend (and keep clean sheets) you cannot ignore the fact that they do score attacking points in the form of goals, assists and, crucially, bonus points.
I am going to largely discount goals here as for all but a handful of players they are almost totally unpredictable and should not be a major factor in picking a player. Consider that last year there were 107 defensive goals (excluding Graham Alexander’s penalties which now reside back in the Championship), which in itself sounds a lot. However, assuming most teams play four defenders in most games, there were 3,040 appearances by defenders, giving the average defender a score once every 28 appearances. Trying to catch this lightning in a bottle is pretty futile as you need to target a player then play him every week (even in bad matchups) if you want to maximise your chances of netting a goal.
Assists are a bit different and can be targeted by picking certain players (i.e. attacking full backs). Twelve players managed to notch four assists or more last season and nine of these would be considered premium players (Mears, Berra and Scharner being the exceptions). It is for that reason that I was careful to compare Alex to Terry earlier rather than Ashley Cole who has been enjoying great freedom down the Chelsea left side (though even he only has one assist to show for his work this season).
The place where this theory can fall down is with the awarding of bonus points. Two factors conspire to ensure that the more expensive players gain more bonus points in general. Firstly, they are expensive for a reason: they are good players playing on good teams. Second, and crucially, the pundits tend to get one player stuck in their head as being the leading man in a defense’s success and reward him when the team plays well, regardless of who actually makes the most tackles, blocks, interceptions etc. This was evidenced last year by Richard Dunne (who played well but not more than twice as well as Collins) and Nemanja Vidic in the preceding year.
The awarding of ‘phantom’ bonus points can tip the advantage in the premium players favour and hence sometimes make them worth the extra investment but so far this season, this does not appear to be the case. Indeed the 9 most expensive players available have yet to notch a bonus point between them (32 have been awarded to defenders in total) and just Agger (3 points) and Carragher (2 points) have gained bonus recognition among all defenders valued at over 6.0m. Consider the situation for midfielders where 31 points have been gained by those valued at over 7m (a smaller population that the aforementioned defender pool). This could indicate that the pundits are no longer levelling the playing field and the likes of Konchesky, Young and Alex could deliver not only better value than their more expensive teammates but even similar levels of actual production (which is what we are actually looking for at he end of the day).
I have preached my loyalty to budget defenders in the past and suggested that the linkage between money spent and points earned is not that strong. I am therefore targeting the aforementioned players (particularly Alex, O’Shea and Konchesky) to give me access to top teams at a budget price. I invite you to discuss below if you are thinking of following suit.
What I do want to discuss is (a) which players allow us to execute this strategy and (b) is this strategy always reliable.
Undervalued teammates
How comfortable would you be picking your weekly defence from Richard Dunne, John Terry, Nemanja Vidic, Roger Johnson and Jody Craddock? Last season these players ranked 1st, 3rd, 8th, 18th, and 35th (Vidic was injured) among all defenders in the game and totalled 657 points between them. At the same PPG rates this year they would amass 630 points even if they each played in a conservative 32 games each (or an incredible 749 points if they each played every week). At the time of writing this group of players will set you back 31.0m which means you would receive a PPMS of 0.636. Solid numbers but not amazing value when you consider that no less than 17 defenders delivered a PPMS above 0.800 last season (only taking those players who played more than 1,000 minutes).
Now how would you like to have this group for 25.1m (and bag a PPMS of 0.784)? You could select Luke Young (saving 2.0m), Alex (saving 0.9m), John O’Shea (saving 1.5m), Scott Dann (saving 0.5m) and Steve Foley (saving 1.0m) and still get the same clean sheet points as the aforementioned star lineup. After all, the raison d’être of defenders is to defend and win clean sheets, doing so as a unit and hence rising and falling as a team. With that in mind, my favourite undervalued teammates are below (keep reading below them for the caveat of this analysis):
Alex (6.1m)
Barring injury or an unexpected signing by Chelsea I think Alex will finish the season as one the highest value players available. The issue of who will partner Terry appears to have been settled and Ferreira’s performance at right back have been shaky suggesting that Ivanovic will lock down that spot, making this one of the more settled backlines around. Sure, he might lose the odd game for Champions League rotation but I think Alex tops 30 games easily this term. Also, consider his love for the occasional long shot and free kick and he may even outscore Terry in the non-defensive point rankings .Alex is no more risky than any top level player and deserves to be held by substantially more than his current 6% holding.
Luke Young (5.0m)
I am not as confident on Young as Alex for two fairly obvious reasons:
- His job is not quite as safe with Cuellar and Beye waiting in the wings, and
- Villa’s defence has been wildly inconsistent to date this year.
Paul Koncesky (5.0m)
Though not always true, you have to assume that a manager brings in new players to play each week, a scenario that would make Konchesky outstanding value at 5.0m. Available for 2.5m less than Glen Johnson (8% owned), this difference would represent the largest discrepancy among all teammates this season. True, Liverpool do not appear to be a defensive force this season but Hodgson made Fulham very solid in his time there and you have to think that this unit will improve at some point. Remember too that they have already faced Arsenal and City, while recording a clean sheet against West Brom in GW3. Watch this situation closely and jump on Konchesky as soon as it becomes evident he will start at LB (perhaps even wait until after the trip to Birmingham in GW4 to be sure).
John O’Shea (5.5m)
Many owners were on Johnny Evans early and he has delivered good value with two clean sheets in the first 3 weeks. However, the return of Ferdinand is imminent and that should put pay to Evans run in the side. O’Shea however is a different story. Rafael, Neville and Smalling were supposed to be threats to his minutes but so far they have not managed to wrestle a single one from him (Vidic and Evans meanwhile have both been subbed this season). An added bonus is that if Ferguson wishes to give Rafael a run out, O’Shea still has a chance to start elsewhere in the team due to his versatility. I think it is safe to target O’Shea now so long as you can handle the games he will occasionally miss by having a decent bench.
Steve Foley (4.0m)
Wolves have been become a useful unit and are very hard to beat. They have conceded a goal in each of their three games this year against okay opposition but I can see them getting a few clean sheets when all is said and done. At 4m Foley is as cheap as you get for your backline and as an every week player he represents good value, ahead of the higher owned Berra and Ward, and the ridiculously overpriced Craddock.
There are a couple of other candidates that could be thrown onto this list, including Micah Richards, Martin Skrtel, Tony Hibbert, and Steve GohouriBoateng) or they are the cheapest player on a garbage team (Gohouri).
Testing the theory
I noted above that there is a caveat to the above picks and it needs elaborating here. While defenders’ main job is to defend (and keep clean sheets) you cannot ignore the fact that they do score attacking points in the form of goals, assists and, crucially, bonus points.
I am going to largely discount goals here as for all but a handful of players they are almost totally unpredictable and should not be a major factor in picking a player. Consider that last year there were 107 defensive goals (excluding Graham Alexander’s penalties which now reside back in the Championship), which in itself sounds a lot. However, assuming most teams play four defenders in most games, there were 3,040 appearances by defenders, giving the average defender a score once every 28 appearances. Trying to catch this lightning in a bottle is pretty futile as you need to target a player then play him every week (even in bad matchups) if you want to maximise your chances of netting a goal.
Assists are a bit different and can be targeted by picking certain players (i.e. attacking full backs). Twelve players managed to notch four assists or more last season and nine of these would be considered premium players (Mears, Berra and Scharner being the exceptions). It is for that reason that I was careful to compare Alex to Terry earlier rather than Ashley Cole who has been enjoying great freedom down the Chelsea left side (though even he only has one assist to show for his work this season).
The place where this theory can fall down is with the awarding of bonus points. Two factors conspire to ensure that the more expensive players gain more bonus points in general. Firstly, they are expensive for a reason: they are good players playing on good teams. Second, and crucially, the pundits tend to get one player stuck in their head as being the leading man in a defense’s success and reward him when the team plays well, regardless of who actually makes the most tackles, blocks, interceptions etc. This was evidenced last year by Richard Dunne (who played well but not more than twice as well as Collins) and Nemanja Vidic in the preceding year.
The awarding of ‘phantom’ bonus points can tip the advantage in the premium players favour and hence sometimes make them worth the extra investment but so far this season, this does not appear to be the case. Indeed the 9 most expensive players available have yet to notch a bonus point between them (32 have been awarded to defenders in total) and just Agger (3 points) and Carragher (2 points) have gained bonus recognition among all defenders valued at over 6.0m. Consider the situation for midfielders where 31 points have been gained by those valued at over 7m (a smaller population that the aforementioned defender pool). This could indicate that the pundits are no longer levelling the playing field and the likes of Konchesky, Young and Alex could deliver not only better value than their more expensive teammates but even similar levels of actual production (which is what we are actually looking for at he end of the day).
I have preached my loyalty to budget defenders in the past and suggested that the linkage between money spent and points earned is not that strong. I am therefore targeting the aforementioned players (particularly Alex, O’Shea and Konchesky) to give me access to top teams at a budget price. I invite you to discuss below if you are thinking of following suit.
ATLETICO DE MADRID TRANSFERS MIDFIELDER JURADO TO SCHALKE 04
Hi guys. Was invited yesterday to watch Atletico de Madrid & Sporting de Gijon at the Vicente Calderon stadium & had a great time watching Atletico win 4-0. I also watched Atletico player JURADO play his last game with Atletico, as it is official that he has been transferred to SCHALKE 04The German Club pays 13M€ & offers the player 4 seasons with a 4.5M€ salary per year. An offer dificult to
Sunday, August 29, 2010
SPANISH FOOTBALL | SOCCER - SPANISH LEAGUE - LA LIGA 2010 - 2011 | SUNDAY ROUND 1 RESULTS
More SPANISH FOOTBALL with the scheduled Sunday games of Round 1º of the SPANISH LEAGUE - LA LIGA - in action with 6 matches. Note that tomorrow Atletico de Madrid & Sporting Gijon will play the last scheduled match of Round 1º at 22.00. Sp time.FC BARCELONA travelled to RACING DE SANTANDER & basically continued were they left things last season as Spanish Champions winning very comfortably 0-3.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
SPANISH FOOTBALL | SOCCER - SPANISH LEAGUE - LA LIGA 2010 - 2011 | SATURDAY ROUND 1 RESULTS
SPANISH FOOTBALL officially kicked off tonight with three matches of the SPANISH LEAGUE - LA LIGA - season 2010 - 2011. Many of us were going through Football "cold turkey" & welcome this start to ease the nerves. Three matches that were not disappointing & sets it further up nicely for the remaining ROUND 1 games tomorrow & Monday.Newly promoted HERCULES de Alicante hosted ATHLETIC DE BILBAO in
AC MILAN MAKES OFFICIAL THE SIGNING - TRANSFER OF ZLATAN IBRAHIMOVIC FROM FC BARCELONA
FC BARCELONA has transferred forward ZLATAN IBRAHIMOVIC to AC MILAN after 5 hours of intense negotiations this afternoon with all parties involved. A year ago Barça paid Inter Milan 45M€ + Samuel Eto´o (= 75M€) to sell him tonight for 24M€. Surreal turn of events in 24 hours as yesterday the price was 40M€, but there is more to this than first meets the eyes. In the future we may really know what
UEFA SUPER CUP 2010 | ATLETICO DE MADRID TEAM PHOTO
Managed to find this image of the ATLETICO DE MADRID TEAM PHOTO season 2010 - 2011, or better said, the UEFA Super Cup 2010 starting line-up team photo against Inter Milan & that won the trophy 0-2.
FC BARCELONA AC MILAN RETURN TO LOAN OPTION ( WITH TWIST) FOR IBRAHIMOVIC
The ZLATAN IBRAHIMOVIC situation with FC BARCELONA & negotiations with AC MILAN continue with new developments according the Barcelona based Sports papers. Apparently all sides have returned to the original formula of a LOAN, but with a twist.The idea now is that Barça LOAN Ibrahimovic to AC Milan this year with an obligatory clause that forces Milan to buy the player at the end of the season.
Friday, August 27, 2010
2010 UEFA SUPER CUP | INTER MILAN 0 ATLETICO DE MADRID 2
SPANISH FOOTBALL has another title via ATLETICO DE MADRID who defeated the current Champions League Champions INTER MILAN 0 - 2 to take the 2010 UEFA SUPER CUP. Its the first time ever that the Spanish Club wins this trophy & in the process stops Inter in achieving the possibility of equaling the FC Barcelona record breaking 6 titles in one single season.It was a brilliant & complete match from
EUROPA LEAGUE 2010 - 2011 GROUP DRAW | ATLETICO DE MADRID SEVILLA FC IN TOUGH GROUPS
GROUP A: Juventus, Manchester City, Salzburgo & KKS Lech Poznan.GROUP B: ATLETICO DE MADRID, Bayer Leverkusen, Rosenborg & Aris Salonica.GROUP C: Sporting Lisboa, Lille, Levski Sofía & Gante.GROUP D: VILLARREAL, Brujas, Dynamo Zagreb & PAOK.GROUP E: AZ Alkmaar, Dynamo Kiev, BATE Borisov & FC Sheriff.GROUP F: CSKA Moscow, Palermo, Sparta Praga & Lausanne-Sport,GROUP G: Zenit St Petersburg,
FC BARCELONA LIVERPOOL FC COME TO AN AGREEMENT TO TRANSFER JAVIER MASCHERANO
FC BARCELONA & LIVERPOOL FC have come to an initial agreement for the transfer of midfielder JAVIER MASCHERANO. The English Club has "given" official permission for Barça to talk with their player so they can shut an agreement. It is expected that this part will have very little problems & that Javier Mascherano will fly to Barcelona this weekend to pass the medical exams & sign.The deal is
Thursday, August 26, 2010
FC BARCELONA 2010 | AC MILAN WILLING TO PAY 40M€ FOR IBRAHIMOVIC?
The news comes out of Italy, from a Silvio Berlusconi owned “Mediaset” website, which informs that what was originally a LOAN option negotiation yesterday for FC BARCELONA player ZLATAN IBRAHIMOVIC has now become a BUY option with a price of 40M€. Things changed today as negotiations continued between AC MILAN & FC BARCELONA to find a way to make a Ibrahimovic transfer operation
EUROPA LEAGUE 2010 PRELIMANARY GAMES | VILLAREAL GETAFE GO THROUGH TO QUALIFY
Spanish Football Teams VILLAREAL & GETAFE join Atletico de Madrid & Sevilla FC in the draw tomorrow for the 2010 - 2011 EUROPA LEAGUE Group match ups. VILLAREAL went into their 2ºleg match with a 5 goal advantage with a B - side which managed to win 1-2 DNEPR MOGILEV. The home team scored first via YURCHENKO, but Villareal cancelled any "hopes" of a comeback with two goals from NILMAR &
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2010 - 2011 GROUP DRAW | REAL MADRID TOUGH ROAD AHEAD
The 2010 - 2011 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Group draw has been celebrated in Monaco with the 3 Spanish representatives placed in their respective groups along with their respective opponents. Current Spanish Champions FC Barcelona will be happy with their Group D outcome which is relatively more easier than the Groups of Valencia CF & Real Madrid CF.In fact, Real Madrid got the short end of the stick being
Gameweek 3 Preview
This week's preview is going to be a bit condensed as my internet access has been limited while still on my travels. After the long rambling piece from GW2 was done I had enough time to throw together the below rankings which will hopefully help with lineup and transfer questions for the week:
Clean Sheet Rankings
Captain Rankings
Apologies for this being a bit short this week but I wanted to get it up quickly rather than writing too much and posting it on Friday night. As always thanks for reading and I look forward to hearing your comments and questions below or @plfantasy.
Clean Sheet Rankings
- Chelsea (0.27)
- Man United (0.36)
- Tottenham (0.40)
- Liverpool (0.55)
- Blackpool (0.63)
- Aston Villa (0.70)
- Wolves (0.79)
- Newcastle (0.81)
- Blackburn (1.13)
- Bolton (1.13)
- Sunderland (1.17)
- Arsenal (1.36)
- Fulham (1.44)
- Man City (1.48)
- Everton (1.61)
- Birmingham (1.63)
- West Brom (3.39)
- Stoke (3.73)
- West Ham (3.83)
- Wigan (4.03)
Captain Rankings
- Gareth Bale
- Didier Drogba
- Fernando Torres
- Ashley Cole
- Florent Malouda
- Steve Gerrard
- Wayne Rooney
- Aaron Lennon
- Nemanja Vidic
- John Terry
Apologies for this being a bit short this week but I wanted to get it up quickly rather than writing too much and posting it on Friday night. As always thanks for reading and I look forward to hearing your comments and questions below or @plfantasy.
Ramble On: Gameweek 2
The below is a bit late due to my lack of internet access. The GW3 preview will also be up shortly.
Seeing as these gameweek roundups invariably descend into random thoughts from the football world, I thought I would rename the segment as both a nod to the nature of my posts and to the greatest rock band of all time (see how even the introductions are now rambling . . . good luck to the reader!).
This week is one in which my concise writing would be especially beneficial given the goals (38) and fantasy excitement of this past week. Without further ado then I will start with a few big performances that require our attention:
Theo Walcott (7.1m) - I included Walcott in my 'under the radar' piece before the season started so while Walcott enjoying success is not a total surprise, the timing is much earlier than I expected. It is pleasing to see him flourish early in the season as this performance should buy him some patience for when he inevitably has one of those inconsistent days that have dogged his Arsenal career to date. I managed to watch the whole Arsenal game and Walcott played better than I have ever seen (though admittedly against a weak Blackpool side). As Wenger pointed out after the game, the impressive part of his performance was not the pacey runs and tricks we all know he has, but the composure he showed in front of goal and the decision making he used when deciding whether to pass or shoot. The way he took his first goal reminded me of certain other number 14 that once graced the Emirates field. While on that, Arsenal's team was full of throwback performances with Rosicky looking like a rejuvenated Robert Pires (wearing number 7) and Abou Diaby doing his best Patrick Vieira impression (though wearing number 2 instead of 4 - again this called a ramble for a reason).
I am still not ready to buy Walcott given his likelihood of being rotated (the front three of Van Persie, Arshavin and Chamakh are all likely to get substantial minutes) but he is definitely on my radar and if he seems to be becoming a fixture in the Arsenal side he might just become a very useful fantasy prospect.
Florent Malouda (9.7m) - No analysis needed here. The best midfielder so far this season and better value than Lampard, Gerrard or Fabregas right now. His value is up to 9.7m and I can see if hitting 10m before September is done as his ownership approaches 30%.
Gareth Bale (6.7m) - Probably my worst pre-season prediction so far was classifying Bale as overvalued. I even went so far as to question if the Welshman would play every week. After Malouda, he has impressed me the most so far this year and Redknapp has described his as undroppable. Tremendous value at 6.7m, he appears to have caught the eye of the pundits which should see a healthy flow of bonus points. By far the most owned player (39%) he has become a must own player as even when his form cools down, you cannot afford to lose double digit points a week in the mean time. Spurs play Wigan this week and Bale will be in running for the best captain pick for GW3.
Andy Caroll (5.1m) - Caroll was brilliant against Villa both in terms of fantasy production and target man play. I don't see him as a consistent every week scorer but I think he will generate bonus points better than his fellow sub-6m strikers, making him better value than the likes of Boselli, Kalinic and N'Gog. Newcastle have a very nice run of fixtures coming up and if you get on board now (at 5.1m) you can be sure of another price rise if he scores again soon as there are few things managers love more than a cheap striker.
Kevin Nolan (5.5m) - Also played well against Villa and his role behind Caroll has intrigued me. He showed a good goalscoring touch at Bolton (almost breaking into the England side) and my issue with him was always his lack of tracking back, an issue that is not a problem in fantasy teams or indeed for the pivotal central midfielder in Newcastle's 4-5-1. At 5.5m he is only okay value, as other good options like Lee, Malbranque, Adam and Gutierrez are available, but he definitely deserves to be in the discussion with these players and leads the pack so far.
Didier Drogba (12.8m) - Apparently it still needs to be said that Drogba is a must own player with Rooney and Torres both struggling for fitness. Owned by 34% this should be close to 50% given the way he has outperformed all other premium players so far. Chelsea face Stoke, West Ham and Blackpool in the next three weeks and the only thing stopping the best player in the league right now is injury or rotation.
Odemwingie (5.0m) - I tweeted that I liked the Odenwingie deal when it went through and this was confirmed after a debut goal for the Nigerian international in GW2. I have only seen him play for Nigeria but he always looked useful and I think he has the talents necessary to be a decent EPL forward. He will probably only ever be a spot starter but with Caroll up to 5.1m I think he's the best way to spend 5m, along with Ebanks-Blake.
Nemanja Vidic (7.0m) - Disappointing gameweek for United players but one thing that stood out was the number of chances Vidic had from set pieces. He managed 4 goals in 2008/09 and I can see him meeting or exceeding that if United keep supplying the balls to him. Could wind up the top scoring defender this season.
City defenders - This defense is for real. With two or three strong midfielders in front of them, this unit is going to be extremely hard to break down and has to rated up there with anyone but Chelsea in terms of clean sheet potential. Joe Hart has been phenomenal but you know my thoughts on expensive keepers so I am targeting Toure as the safest way to access this team's potential until Boateng is fit.
Alex (6.0m) - The second centre back job appears to be Alex's which makes him great value at 6m. I haven't seen too much to illustrate that Terry is worth 1m more so that transfer made perfect sense to me in order to free up some extra spending money. With Ivanovic and Ferreira being subbed on the hour I think Alex is the best Chelsea defender for those who find Cole a bit too pricey.
Frank Lampard - (13.0m) - Lampard has been pretty successful in fantasy terms this year (14 points) but I am still concerned that he is playing too deep compared with last season to be as dominant. I am certainly not suggesting writing off the English star yet, but, considering the opposition he has faced (Wig and WB) I would start to be concerned about his lack of explosive scoring.
Steve Gerrard (11.5m) - Despite Liverpool looking somewhat underwhelming, I am actually less concerned with Gerrard than Lampard in terms of his positional play this year. Gerrard was clearly more involved with Cole not in the side but there are of course questions over how this will play out in the season. If Cole comes back into the free role then I think Gerrard is massively overvalued in the EPL game. If however Cole is pushed to the wing then I think Gerrard can be a useful contributor this season, though I still prefer the likes of Malouda and Milner for 2m less.
As the title says, the above is a quick ramble through the week's action and departs somewhat from my usual statistical framework. The weekly preview will be back very soon in time for the weekend's games (again delayed because of traveling).
Seeing as these gameweek roundups invariably descend into random thoughts from the football world, I thought I would rename the segment as both a nod to the nature of my posts and to the greatest rock band of all time (see how even the introductions are now rambling . . . good luck to the reader!).
This week is one in which my concise writing would be especially beneficial given the goals (38) and fantasy excitement of this past week. Without further ado then I will start with a few big performances that require our attention:
Theo Walcott (7.1m) - I included Walcott in my 'under the radar' piece before the season started so while Walcott enjoying success is not a total surprise, the timing is much earlier than I expected. It is pleasing to see him flourish early in the season as this performance should buy him some patience for when he inevitably has one of those inconsistent days that have dogged his Arsenal career to date. I managed to watch the whole Arsenal game and Walcott played better than I have ever seen (though admittedly against a weak Blackpool side). As Wenger pointed out after the game, the impressive part of his performance was not the pacey runs and tricks we all know he has, but the composure he showed in front of goal and the decision making he used when deciding whether to pass or shoot. The way he took his first goal reminded me of certain other number 14 that once graced the Emirates field. While on that, Arsenal's team was full of throwback performances with Rosicky looking like a rejuvenated Robert Pires (wearing number 7) and Abou Diaby doing his best Patrick Vieira impression (though wearing number 2 instead of 4 - again this called a ramble for a reason).
I am still not ready to buy Walcott given his likelihood of being rotated (the front three of Van Persie, Arshavin and Chamakh are all likely to get substantial minutes) but he is definitely on my radar and if he seems to be becoming a fixture in the Arsenal side he might just become a very useful fantasy prospect.
Florent Malouda (9.7m) - No analysis needed here. The best midfielder so far this season and better value than Lampard, Gerrard or Fabregas right now. His value is up to 9.7m and I can see if hitting 10m before September is done as his ownership approaches 30%.
Gareth Bale (6.7m) - Probably my worst pre-season prediction so far was classifying Bale as overvalued. I even went so far as to question if the Welshman would play every week. After Malouda, he has impressed me the most so far this year and Redknapp has described his as undroppable. Tremendous value at 6.7m, he appears to have caught the eye of the pundits which should see a healthy flow of bonus points. By far the most owned player (39%) he has become a must own player as even when his form cools down, you cannot afford to lose double digit points a week in the mean time. Spurs play Wigan this week and Bale will be in running for the best captain pick for GW3.
Andy Caroll (5.1m) - Caroll was brilliant against Villa both in terms of fantasy production and target man play. I don't see him as a consistent every week scorer but I think he will generate bonus points better than his fellow sub-6m strikers, making him better value than the likes of Boselli, Kalinic and N'Gog. Newcastle have a very nice run of fixtures coming up and if you get on board now (at 5.1m) you can be sure of another price rise if he scores again soon as there are few things managers love more than a cheap striker.
Kevin Nolan (5.5m) - Also played well against Villa and his role behind Caroll has intrigued me. He showed a good goalscoring touch at Bolton (almost breaking into the England side) and my issue with him was always his lack of tracking back, an issue that is not a problem in fantasy teams or indeed for the pivotal central midfielder in Newcastle's 4-5-1. At 5.5m he is only okay value, as other good options like Lee, Malbranque, Adam and Gutierrez are available, but he definitely deserves to be in the discussion with these players and leads the pack so far.
Didier Drogba (12.8m) - Apparently it still needs to be said that Drogba is a must own player with Rooney and Torres both struggling for fitness. Owned by 34% this should be close to 50% given the way he has outperformed all other premium players so far. Chelsea face Stoke, West Ham and Blackpool in the next three weeks and the only thing stopping the best player in the league right now is injury or rotation.
Odemwingie (5.0m) - I tweeted that I liked the Odenwingie deal when it went through and this was confirmed after a debut goal for the Nigerian international in GW2. I have only seen him play for Nigeria but he always looked useful and I think he has the talents necessary to be a decent EPL forward. He will probably only ever be a spot starter but with Caroll up to 5.1m I think he's the best way to spend 5m, along with Ebanks-Blake.
Nemanja Vidic (7.0m) - Disappointing gameweek for United players but one thing that stood out was the number of chances Vidic had from set pieces. He managed 4 goals in 2008/09 and I can see him meeting or exceeding that if United keep supplying the balls to him. Could wind up the top scoring defender this season.
City defenders - This defense is for real. With two or three strong midfielders in front of them, this unit is going to be extremely hard to break down and has to rated up there with anyone but Chelsea in terms of clean sheet potential. Joe Hart has been phenomenal but you know my thoughts on expensive keepers so I am targeting Toure as the safest way to access this team's potential until Boateng is fit.
Alex (6.0m) - The second centre back job appears to be Alex's which makes him great value at 6m. I haven't seen too much to illustrate that Terry is worth 1m more so that transfer made perfect sense to me in order to free up some extra spending money. With Ivanovic and Ferreira being subbed on the hour I think Alex is the best Chelsea defender for those who find Cole a bit too pricey.
Frank Lampard - (13.0m) - Lampard has been pretty successful in fantasy terms this year (14 points) but I am still concerned that he is playing too deep compared with last season to be as dominant. I am certainly not suggesting writing off the English star yet, but, considering the opposition he has faced (Wig and WB) I would start to be concerned about his lack of explosive scoring.
Steve Gerrard (11.5m) - Despite Liverpool looking somewhat underwhelming, I am actually less concerned with Gerrard than Lampard in terms of his positional play this year. Gerrard was clearly more involved with Cole not in the side but there are of course questions over how this will play out in the season. If Cole comes back into the free role then I think Gerrard is massively overvalued in the EPL game. If however Cole is pushed to the wing then I think Gerrard can be a useful contributor this season, though I still prefer the likes of Malouda and Milner for 2m less.
As the title says, the above is a quick ramble through the week's action and departs somewhat from my usual statistical framework. The weekly preview will be back very soon in time for the weekend's games (again delayed because of traveling).
SPANISH NATIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM | LIST OF 21 PLAYERS ANNOUNCED FOR LIECHTENSTEIN - ARGENTINA
Spanish National Football Team Selector & Coach Vicente del Bosque has announced the list of 21 Spanish Players to make up the Spanish Team squad that will play Liechtenstein in the Euro 2012 Group qualifier the 3rd of September, & later Argentina the 7th of September in a Friendly International match in Buenos Aires.The observations are that Raul Albiol (Real Madrid) is out due to his injury,
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
JOAN GAMPER TROPHY 2010 | FC BARCELONA 1 (3) DEFEATS AC MILAN 1 (1)
FC BARCELONA has defeated AC MILAN 3-1 on penalties AFTER the match finished in a 1-1 draw, to take the "JOAN GAMPER TROPHY" which traditionally showcases to all the Barça members the new season squad.FC Barcelona took the opportunity to thank its appreciated ex-player & star RONALDINHO who returned to the ground, City & Club that made him the World Nº1 & gave him so many titles, as he did to
SPANISH FOOTBALL | 10 YOUNG PROMISES TO WATCH THIS 2010 - 2011 SEASON
SPANISH FOOTBALL magazine "Don Balon" has written an interesting article were they advise their readers to keep a close eye out for 10 promising young players they believe could make a "jump" this new season 2010 - 2011 in the SPANISH LEAGUE.Here are their names:CALE (Sevilla FC) - Central DefenderJ MONTERO (Villareal) - Forward from EcuadorTHIAGO (FC Barcelona) - MidfielderURRETA (Deportivo) -
REAL MADRID | "OPERATION EXIT" 2010
According to Spanish Sports daily “AS”, REAL MADRID is negotiating with LIVERPOOL FC the possible transfer of MAHAMADOU DIARRA, while Italian Club JUVENTUS has entered the picture in talks for Dutch player RAFAEL VAN DER VAART.In reference to the last name, Juventus offers 14M€ while Real Madrid wishes 16M€, plus to complicate things, Coach Mourinho is hesitant to let go Van Der Vaart because he
REAL MADRID TEAM PHOTO | SEASON 2010 - 2011
As promised, managed to find a better REAL MADRID TEAM PHOTO for season 2010-2011. This is the starting line-up against Peñerol yesterday & could be the starting line-up for the start of the SPANISH FOOTBALL season - LA LIGA. Top (L to R): Casillas, Ramos, Khedira, Alonso, Carvalho, RonaldoBottom (L to R): Marcelo, Canales, Higuain, Lass Diarra, Ozil.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
REAL MADRID CF 2010 - 2011 TEAM PHOTO
Not many REAL MADRID 2010-2011 TEAM PHOTOS circulating at this moment, so I managed to find this one taken tonight ater winning 2-0 the "Santiago Bernabeu Trophy" against Uruguayan Club Peñarol.
This should ease the demands of the REAL MADRID fans & I will be alert if any "proper" Team photos pop up in the near future of Real Madrid & other teams. Cheers!
This should ease the demands of the REAL MADRID fans & I will be alert if any "proper" Team photos pop up in the near future of Real Madrid & other teams. Cheers!
FRIENDLY GAME 2010 | REAL MADRID 2 PEÑAROL 0 | DI MARIA GOAL VIDEO
REAL MADRID played its annual presentation "Friendly game" in front of its home fans in the "Santiago Bernabeu Trophy" with Uruguayian guests PEÑAROL. The final result was a 2-0 win for the home team which was deceiving as it gave more doubts than confidence with just under 5 days left to the start of the new 2010-2011 LIGA season.The 1ºst half line up was:Casillas; Lass, Sergio Ramos, Carvalho,
PRELIMINARY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2010 | SEVILLA FC 3 SPORTING BRAGA 4 | BRAGA KNOCKS OUT SEVILLA FC 3-5 AGG
Big surprise tonight at Sevilla with the home team being knocked out of the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE competition for season 2010 -2011 by Portuguese Club BRAGA. The final score was 3-4 with Braga winning with a 3-5 aggregate tally.While SEVILLA FC go into the EUROPA LEAGUE competitition as a consolation the blow has been heavy especially in the financial pocket area as this loss supposes that 20% of the
Monday, August 23, 2010
FC BARCELONA 2010 | MASCHERANO CLOSER IBRAHIMOVIC UP IN THE AIR
The key message is that LIVERPOOL FC Argentine midfielder JAVIER MASCHERANO will not play in tonight’s Premier League game against Manchester City, instead of the official Club announcement that Liverpool has rejected the initial offer from FC BARCELONA. The offer is said to be 15M€ + variables + player Hleb which is estimated to be around 20M€ +/-, an offer that Liverpool has rejected “for the
SEVILLA FC TRANSFERS FRENCH DEFENDER SQUILLACI TO ARSENAL FC
SEVILLA FC & ARSENAL FC have come to an agreement for the former to transfer to the latter 30 year old French International defender SQUILLACI. The Frenchmen flew yesterday to London to undergo the medical examinations before signing for the “Gunners”. The transfer price has not been given but speculations in the Spanish press comment that it could be between 6.5 – 7M€, amount that Sevilla paid
Sunday, August 22, 2010
FRIENDLY GAME 2010 | HERCULES 1 REAL MADRID 3
REAL MADRID defeated newly ascended Club HERCULES of Alicante 1-3 in a friendly game that served to celebrate the home teams welcome back to the Spanish League & newly renovated Football ground to introduce the season 2010-2011 squad to their home fans.Real Madrid travelled without Casillas, Ramos, Xabi Alonso & Cristiano Ronaldo which gave more time to the younger players & Ozil who debuted in
SPANISH FOOTBALL HISTORY | FC BARCELONA CLOSES IN ON REAL MADRID IN OVERALL TITLES
bSpanish Sports daily “Marca” makes an interesting observation today in its online edition; that FC BARECLONA is close to overtaking REAL MADRID in overall historical titles. With yesterdays Spanish Super Cup title FC Barcelona has 70 historical total titles as compared with 72 that belong to Real Madrid.Here below is a very good descriptive diagram taken from the mentioned source that depicts
SPANISH FOOTBALL | TRANSFERS SIGNINGS SEASON 2010 - 2011
Spanish Football Sports Blog thought that its global readers may be interested to see how all the SPANISH LEAGUE - LA LIGA - Clubs have reinforced their teams with new signings for season 2010 - 2011Below is a list of SPANISH FOOTBALL Clubs & their new signings to date. Take note that there is still time for new transfers & incorporations, apart from the possibilities that some players listed
Saturday, August 21, 2010
2010 SPANISH SUPER CUP RESULT | FC BARCELONA 4 SEVILLA FC 0 ( 5 - 3 AGG)
FC BARCELONA put in a magnificent performance tonight to turn around the 1º leg 1- 3 deficit result & win the 2 ºleg match against SEVILLA FC 4-0 to take another title, the 2010 SPANISH SUPER CUP, with a 5-3 aggregate total. In fact, I ask myself, why did Sevilla bother turning up at all, as they clearly had their minds in next Tuesdays "do or die" Champions League 2º leg qualifier against Braga
REAL MADRID FC BARCELONA 2010/2011 LIGA MATCH SCHEDULE
This post specifically replies to the many requests via emails that Spanish Football Sports Blog has been receiving in the past days from readers solicitating the REAL MADRID & FC BARCELONA "LIGA" season 2010 - 2011 match schedule / calendar. Below are the full 38 Rounds match schedules for both teams. Just a couple of points:They´re in Spanish, but easy to figure out without any translationThe
Is the grass going to be greener for Milner?
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| "James Milner might think the grass is greener at Manchester City. He may be in for a shock." (Stephen Ireland) |
Seeing as I'm on Malaysia time, I have several hours to burn before the Saturday news starts rolling in so I thought I would lay down some random thoughts on the Milner / Ireland trade that could have fantasy impact immediately and throughout the season.
James Milner
The general consensus seems to be that City have been mugged by Villa and overpaid for the services of Milner. 43% of Goal.com readers think that the move is a bad one for Milner personally which implies they think he won't get enough playing time at City in the coming months and years. I disagree. I think people often underestimate the effect that it has on a manager's team selection when he signed a player - which is not the case for De Jong, Barry, Wright Phillips and Johnson. If any of these players are dropped by Mancini, and hence considered busts, it is Hughes' fault but if Milner does not play that Mancini will be blamed.
He may not like it, having stated his desire to play inside for both club and country, but Milner's ability to play on the right gives him an even better chance to feature most weeks as he is only really competing with Wright Phillips as a pure right-sided player which is great news given SWP's ineffective performances at the end of last season and against Spurs last week.
The BBC suggest that Milner will fit in a 3 man midfield with Barry and Toure and I totally agree. I think Mancini will go with 4-5-1 with Tevez and Silva behind Balotelli allowing Tevez to slide forward and Milner to slide right to give the team a 4-4-2 shape if required. Of course, players like Johnson, Adebayor, De Jong and Wright Phillips might come and go but I think this is his best team and Milner will feature as much as anyone from here on out. I'd set the line for the number of Premier League appearances he ends the season on at 28-30 and I'd still be buying that total.
As for his fantasy impact, that is slightly trickier. I have generally cautioned against players who move clubs due to the time required to settle in, get to know your teammates, possibly learn the language etc. These factors are less troubling with Milner than say David Silva but still a concern. I am personally going to watch this situation through GW3 and GW4 after which City have some dynamite fixtures that will make Milner very appealing if he is playing the right role. I am hoping for an advanced role in that 3 man midfield (think Iniesta) with Barry (Xavi) and Toure (Busquets) providing the protection. If this is the case then Milner has top 5 midfielder potential and is a steal at 9m. The development here could be one of the key things to watch in the next couple of weeks so stay tuned for some chalkboard analysis when the games have been played.
Stephen Ireland
I'll put my cards on the table: I like Stephen Ireland a lot. Trawling through my blog archives you can find comparisons to Steve Gerrard and general admiration which has not wavered even if his status at City did. I thought he was desperately unlucky to be pushed out at City, and even if his recent comments are a little arrogant, he is probably not far wrong. At Villa he should slot right into Milner's role, flanked by talented players in Young, Downing and Petrov which should present plenty of attacking opportunities. There are also Milner's 35 bonus points to go around, which Ireland should have a decent shot at winning (he won 16 of his own in his landmark 2008/09 season).
When the season is done I think Ireland has the chance to be the best player available for under 8m and will give some of the 8m+ players a run for their money (not bad for 6.5m).
I am very high on Malouda and Valencia so I have tough choices ahead of me if I want to get Milner in too. Ireland however, is only 0.5 more than N'Zogbia so I plan to make a double swap next week, losing Vidic or Terry for one of their cheaper teammates allowing me to bring in Ireland in time for 3 decent home games (Eve, Sto and Bol).
I imagine this will be somewhat controversial as everyone has an opinion on City's transfer dealings so why not post your thoughts below to spark the EPL debates for another weekend.
SPANISH FOOTBALL EXPORTING PLAYERS MORE THAN EVER
SPANISH FOOTBALL a decade ago was more about importing players. Over time & with the grand success of the 2008 EURO Championship title & the recent FIFA World Cup victory, Spanish Football is now exporting Spanish born players.Spanish paper "ABC" has illustrated this with this interesting diagram which shows the country & which Spanish player/s is/are participating this season in their local
Friday, August 20, 2010
FIFA GOLDEN BALL 2010 | 3 CANDIDATES INIESTA SNEIJDER FORLAN
It is that time of the year when 208 National Team selectors, 208 National Team Captains & 208 World journalists send in their votes for whom they consider deserves to win the 2010 FIFA Golden Ball. As you may already know, France Football with its Golden Ball Award has joined FIFA with its World Player Award to hand in one single trophy.Those in the “know” - specialist media journalists -
ATLETICO DE MADRID | SIMAO SABROSA | TWITTER
Atletico de Madrid Portuguese forward SIMAO SABROSA takes this picture of his team-mates returning from Cadiz this morning. The player placed it in his Twitter account "simao20sabrosa"
Thursday, August 19, 2010
EUROPA LEAGUE 2010 PRELIMANARY GAMES | GETAFE 1 APOEL 0 VILLAREAL 5 DNEPR MOGILER 0
Two Spanish Football teams were involved tonight in the 1ºst leg of the preliminary games for the upcoming 2010 - 2011 EUROPA LEAGUE competition. Madrid Club GETAFE managed a slim 1-0 victory over the competitive APOEL NICOSIA team from Cyprus. Getafe midfielder PAREJO (above) managed the only goal & the winner in the 42th min. Entertaining match which saw chances at both ends, but was
Gameweek 2 Preview
The pessimist in me is wondering where I go from here after a very successful first week in which my predictions did well and my team dominated to a three digit score. However, I am going to be positive and look to have another good week of predictions and hope to show that last week was no fluke (in reality it was probably was a fluke, as my countless failed predictions in the past show).
One thing I didn't focus on last week, which I now wish I had, is the prediction tool I use to create my clean sheet rankings. Without getting too bogged down in Excel nonsense, the basic idea is to break down teams historic performance at home/away, against other teams and against certain types of team along with the corresponding data for their opponents. To get the historic data for the promoted sides I used a historic relationship between teams' performance in the EPL and the Championship to try and gross up/net down the expected goals conceded/scored.
Anyway, the point being is that along with some somewhat easier predictions that were correct, the spreadsheet also spat out the following:
Clean Sheet Rankings
I wouldn't go anywhere near the bottom six sides given their opponents and historic performance. True, West Brom looks like an easy game for Sunderland but the Mackems had the 4th worst road defense last season and conceded twice to a Birmingham side at home who managed just 19 all last season.
In all I think it's a decent defensive week but not as promising as last week. It might be worth considering a three man defense if you are loaded up on mid-price options from teams like Spurs, Blackburn or Villa who face tricky road trips this week.
Captain Rankings
The Mirror (not quite the Wall Street Journal but it's all I have right now) claim that Fabregas will be rushed back this week in time to play the mouth watering tie against Blackpool. Given that Cesc didn't play at all last week, this seems a bit suspect and we know the Wenger has alot of time for Wilshere so I am not that confident that Fabregas features here, especially in light of the fact that Wenger will surely back his team to beat Blackpool without their Spanish genius. I am more confident that Van Persie will play having come on late last week. Needless to say, they are both great options and it is worth checking the newswires (or following me over at @plfantasy) to see if any breaking news emerges on this pair.
Darren Bent, Mikel Arteta (or is that Michael Alpha now that the Everton man is being tipped for an England call) and Dimitar Berbatov are three somewhat cheaper options who I like this week if your star men don't excite you. Arteta has a very good fixture (Wol) while Bent and Berbatov are in top form, though facing away trips to West Brom and Fulham respectively. Finally, I am unconvinced by the final pair due to their tricky ties and inconsistent form, but I was running out of options and you really need to try and get one of the Chelsea or Arsenal boys in this week if you.
In case you missed it, I had some rambling thoughts on a successful week one here which I urge you to take a skim through in your own time. As always thanks for reading and good luck for GW2. Continue to check back here and on Twitter for last minute injury news and it's fantasy impact.
One thing I didn't focus on last week, which I now wish I had, is the prediction tool I use to create my clean sheet rankings. Without getting too bogged down in Excel nonsense, the basic idea is to break down teams historic performance at home/away, against other teams and against certain types of team along with the corresponding data for their opponents. To get the historic data for the promoted sides I used a historic relationship between teams' performance in the EPL and the Championship to try and gross up/net down the expected goals conceded/scored.
Anyway, the point being is that along with some somewhat easier predictions that were correct, the spreadsheet also spat out the following:
- Man Utd 3-0 Newcastle
- Chelsea 5-0 West Brom
- Wigan 1-2 Blackpool
Clean Sheet Rankings
- Birmingham (0.33)
- Arsenal (0.56)
- Chelsea (0.63)
- Man City (0.70)
- West Brom (0.70)
- Newcastle (0.77)
- Everton (0.78)
- Man United (0.84)
- West Ham (0.90)
- Fulham (0.99)
- Stoke (1.10)
- Tottenham (1.35)
- Blackburn (1.37)
- Aston Villa (1.38)
- Liverpool (1.59)
- Wigan (1.81)
- Sunderland (2.08)
- Bolton (2.10)
- Wolves (2.31)
- Blackpool (4.11)
I wouldn't go anywhere near the bottom six sides given their opponents and historic performance. True, West Brom looks like an easy game for Sunderland but the Mackems had the 4th worst road defense last season and conceded twice to a Birmingham side at home who managed just 19 all last season.
In all I think it's a decent defensive week but not as promising as last week. It might be worth considering a three man defense if you are loaded up on mid-price options from teams like Spurs, Blackburn or Villa who face tricky road trips this week.
Captain Rankings
- Didier Drogba
- Florent Malouda
- Robin van Persie
- Frank Lampard
- Cesc Fabregas
- Darren Bent
- Mikel Arteta
- Dimitar Berbatov
- Ashley Young
- Wayne Rooney
The Mirror (not quite the Wall Street Journal but it's all I have right now) claim that Fabregas will be rushed back this week in time to play the mouth watering tie against Blackpool. Given that Cesc didn't play at all last week, this seems a bit suspect and we know the Wenger has alot of time for Wilshere so I am not that confident that Fabregas features here, especially in light of the fact that Wenger will surely back his team to beat Blackpool without their Spanish genius. I am more confident that Van Persie will play having come on late last week. Needless to say, they are both great options and it is worth checking the newswires (or following me over at @plfantasy) to see if any breaking news emerges on this pair.
Darren Bent, Mikel Arteta (or is that Michael Alpha now that the Everton man is being tipped for an England call) and Dimitar Berbatov are three somewhat cheaper options who I like this week if your star men don't excite you. Arteta has a very good fixture (Wol) while Bent and Berbatov are in top form, though facing away trips to West Brom and Fulham respectively. Finally, I am unconvinced by the final pair due to their tricky ties and inconsistent form, but I was running out of options and you really need to try and get one of the Chelsea or Arsenal boys in this week if you.
In case you missed it, I had some rambling thoughts on a successful week one here which I urge you to take a skim through in your own time. As always thanks for reading and good luck for GW2. Continue to check back here and on Twitter for last minute injury news and it's fantasy impact.
REAL MADRID 2010 NEWS | OVERBOOKING | PLAYERS NEED TO LEAVE
With the arrival of German midfielder Ozil, REAL MADRID has “overbooking” in the midfield & with their squad. Currently there are 26 players that make up the list under the instructions of Coach José Mourinho & the Club wishes to lower the figure to 23 players. Obviously this means that three players will be “asked” to find other Clubs before the start of the new season.During yesterday’s media
Week One Roundup: Lessons learned
Well that went well. One of my better week of predictions is in the bag and Pure Juice sit 113th out of close to 2 million managers having managed six goals and four clean sheets on opening weekend. Unfortunately I don't think I have struck some sort of fantasy blueprint to be applied in all future weeks - more than I got a bit lucky and applied some fundamental principles that hold true for the coming weeks too:
One of the hardest parts at the start of the season is knowing what trends are for real and what are aberrations. Didier Drogba probably won't continue his form and end the season on 114 goals but his dominant play is, as will all know, for real and he is a legitimate stud going forward. But what about someone like Marc Albrighton who shone for Villa and can be had for a measly 4.6m (his value has already gone up). Here's my take on the headline makers from week one in no particular order:
Steve Gerrard / Frank Lampard: I am concerned for this pair's ability to generate top level returns given the positions they took in their team's gameweek one games. Looking at the chalkboards below, we can see that both players took up rather deep positions and despite Lampard completing almost all his passes against weak opposition, most of them were not in dangerous positions.
Gerrard v Lampard chalkboard: too deep to dominate?
I voiced my approval for the premium strikers before the season and I am even further on board this strategy after watching the games this week. In the 4-5-1 formation there is room for the Mezhut Ozil / Kaka type 'trequartista' who could dominate the fantasy scoring charts but neither Lampard nor Gerrard are being deployed in this way, possibly due to the inclusion of natural forwards in the wide right position (Anelka and Kuyt) who often push the formation into somewhat of a lopsided 4-4-2.
There aren't any other players who fit this mold either but if you make Lampard/Gerrard just a very good central midfielder then give me James Milner and 4m any day. I am not willing to give up on this pair yet but I stick by my pursuit of premium strikers for the time being.
Gareth Bale: I wasn't particularly high on Bale before the season and I felt that most people were overvaluing him due to the clean sheet points he earned last year while classified as a defender. However, he looked very dangerous against a good City side, and seems locked into the first team lineup.
I am still concerned with how wasteful his passing is sometimes (see below) but the pundits didn't seem to be bothered when handing out the bonus points and so long as you can handle some inconsistency in his points, I think Bale should represent good value for the foreseeable future.
Bale chalkboard: wasteful in possession
Marc Albrighton: The Villa youngster looked very good in his debut and the fantasy managers have already reacted to the 4.5m player pushing his price up to 4.6m. However, the return of Gabby Agbonlahor will limit Albrighton's playing time and I think whoever the manager is at Villa will be keen to not put too much pressure on the teenager. I am currently filing him as one for the future and I think you'll spend more time frustrated by him giving you 12 minutes and 1 point than counting the points you won by being the first on the kid's bandwagon.
Paul Scholes / Darren Fletcher: This pair played tremendously well for United against Newcastle and I was particularly intrigued by Fletcher's forward runs and attacking influence. Scholes has developed into a Pirlo-like deep lying playmaker which allows Fletcher the room to run forward more, knowing that he has a few bodies protecting him. I'm not ready to buy either of these players yet but they have turned a somewhat fantasy-sparse United team into an intriguing squad of players, along with:
Nani: I am a proud Valencia owner and I have stated that I think he has a shot at being a top 5 midfielder this year. However, for me, Nani was the more dangerous player on Monday and his pass to Evra for Fletcher's goal was pure class. I cannot believe I have now championed both Nani and Walcott in the past few weeks but I think they have the chance to take the next steps to being mature wingers this season. I'm not buying yet but if Nani keeps this up he could develop into a very useful squad player.
Dimitar Berbatov / Javier Hernandez: I hate to ride the United bandwagon too much but I think there are goals in this team and one of these two players are going to get a chunk of them. I absolutely love Berbatov when he's "on"and during his best spell at Spurs I would have put him in the top 3 or 4 strikers in England. He actually had a good fantasy season last year (5.59 PPG and 0.607 PPMS - Rooney's was just 0.620) and he has started the season on fire in the Community Shield and in gameweek 1. He looked very hungry and seemed to be enjoying his football and the chalkboard below shows how involved he was, with touches all over the pitch.
Berbatov chalkboard: involved in the action all over the field
My concern is the presence of another player who has impressed - Javier Hernandez or "Chicarito". He plays like a goalscorer and looked fresh when he came on against Newcastle. While Rooney is getting back to fitness there are minutes for both these players but once fit, Rooney will take 90 minutes every week and the fantasy value of Berbatov and Hernandez may be limited. United have a pretty awesome set of fixtures through week 11 with only @Ful @Eve, Liv and Tot looking even vaguely threatening and so I think I will stick with Berbatov for now, but if Ferguson starts getting too happy with his rotation it's time to move on as 8.5m is simply too much money to have on the bench. Monitor this situation closely.
David Stockdale: Stockdale did okay in Schwarzer's absence and Fulham look like they are still a decent defensive side under Mark Hughes. If Schwarzer finally completes his drawn out move to Arsenal or somewhere else then Stockdale becomes a 4m starting keeper which are hard to come by and he would become a very useful asset for all teams, either in a rotation strategy or as the best 4m keeper around (no I'm not on board the Gilks / Mignolet or Carson trains just yet).
Phil Jones / Paul Robinson: Blackburn managed an opening day clean sheet against a decent Everton side, though ranked as the 9th best clean sheet bet for the week, it was hardly a huge surprise. I rated Blackburn's defense coming into the season and mentioned both Paul Robinson and Phil Jones before the season, however, Blackburn enjoyed very little possession against Everton - Yaya Toure completed more passes for City than the entire Rovers team - and against better teams that formula will not lead to clean sheets.
This week's trip to Birmingham is a good test for Allardyce's unit and if they get through it okay I think we can safely put Rovers into the decent mid-level defensive unit options. However, if they struggle to hold the ball again and look vulnerable it might be time to cut loose now given that they face Arsenal and City in GW3 and GW4. A quick note on Jones that may have been missed: he is lining up in midfield and was given man of the match by the pundits this week. That is a valuable combination and if Blackburn can show more defensive strength I think he is one of the best 4.5m options around.
Benoit Assou Ekotto: I held BAE for long chunks of last season and I was fairly satisfied with his performances for a while (3.20 PPG and 0.68 PPMS) though he never really excelled as I hoped. I feared for his place in the starting lineup this year as I wondered if either Bale or one of Spurs' several CBs would take the LB spot leaving BAE out in the fantasy wilderness. In fact he looked very good in GW1 and his left field partnership with Bale looked extremely promising. He was handed 2 bonus points which puts him in the pundit's eyes early on and opens the way for more rewards in the future. Spurs' defensive fixtures are good but not great so I wouldn't jump all over BAE per se, but if, like me, you are a Dawson owner, you might consider a switch if you have a spare transfer to allow for a bit of differentiation in your side (Dawson 25% owned, BAE 5%).
Marlon Harewood: Don't even think about it. There is a reason Harewood had no team until about a week before the season. Wigan are horrible and my Sunday league team may have scored 3 or 4 past them on Saturday.
James Milner: I wasn't expecting a big performance from the want-away midfielder but Milner played well by all accounts (I haven't seen the game) and grabbed the 3 bonus points. For all City's spending they don't really have any pundit favorites so Milner should be able to continue his bonus grabbing at Eastlands. I think Milner becomes a viable 9m option at City and should not only feature in most games, but also be protected by some very good players in Barry, Yaya Toure and De Jong. Assuming one of these makes way for Milner, you get a 4-2-3-1 shape with Milner playing alongside Silva and Tevez behind Balotelli with few defensive responsibilities. You can make a case that there is more talent there than that which surrounds either Lampard or Gerrard and thus Milner looks very interesting at 9m. He would currently by my 5th pick in midfielder regardless of price (Lampard, Gerrard, Cesc and Malouda still look very good) but when you take into account his lower price tag he might be ahead of anyone. I'm waiting a week or two for him to bed in, but then he will be very near the top of my transfer list, right around the time City play Bla, @Wig, New and @Bll in a 5 week spell.
Emmanuel Adebayor: Sell. I was on Ade before the season but he is far too expensive to ever be rested or rotated. Anelka, Bent and Defoe are much safer options who should finish the season with more points.
Mario Balotelli: I am excited by the arrival of Super Mario who dazzled me a couple of times in cameo appearances in the Champions League. As with most new arrivals I am staying away for now but as noted for Milner above, City have a good run of fixtures from GW4 on so if he can get into the team and prove his worth somewhere in that run he might be a nice option for anyone who is sick of Defoe/Anelka/Bent/Berbatov by that point. You have to think that Mancini plans to play Balotelli (that is of course if he had any say in who the board signed) so he should get plenty of chances to shine and his talent is undeniable. One to watch but hold off for now.
Wayne Rooney: Rooney looked a bit laboured against Newcastle and was clearly lacking both sharpness and confidence. I have little doubt that both of these will return but in the next 2 or 3 weeks the returns could be limited to the odd goal. His bonus points will be hurt by an inability to pursue his trademark closing down and passionate play and United have other strong options on the bench (Hernandez, Owen, Macheda) to pull Rooney off if he is struggling. For the immediate future I think Torres, Van Persie, Defoe and of course Drogba are all better options.
That round up turned into a bit of a random ramble so apologies if I lost any of you halfway through. I will be back very shortly with the GW2 preview include the usual clean sheet and captain rankings.
- While I cautioned earlier about using minutes played as a sure fire barometer for future success, during these opening weeks when team selections are unsettled from prior season, it is essential to go with the sure things and try and avoid trying to discover the next big thing too early. That is why - as some of you have correctly pointed out - I somewhat deviated from my normal strategy of cheaper defenders and brought in Vidic and Terry for opening weekend (this was also due to saving some cash swapping Van Persie to Berbatov quite late on after it became apparent that Van Persie would not start this week). My big mistake of the week was sticking with N'Zogbia despite the warnings that he was upset and might not feature in Martinez's side. I was lucky this time as Chaz Adam came off the bench with 6 points but this was a careless risk and I must now burn a transfer this week to remove N'Zogbia and lose 0.1m in the process. Many managers got burned with either big name arrivals failing to excite (Silva, Hernandez, K.Jones, J.Cole, Boselli) or players failing to make the first team (Adebayor, Lescott, N'Zogbia, Ivanovic).
- Playing the fixtures is still one of the safest strategies. It might not work every time (Wolves conceding to Stoke was a blow to my clean sheet rankings) but those who jumped on the solid defensive fixtures of United, Villa, Chelsea, Bolton, Spurs and Blackburn were rewarded with clean sheets this week and the only game that really went against the defensive trends was the 2-2 Sunderland-Birmingham game which looked more like a 0-0 before kick off.
One of the hardest parts at the start of the season is knowing what trends are for real and what are aberrations. Didier Drogba probably won't continue his form and end the season on 114 goals but his dominant play is, as will all know, for real and he is a legitimate stud going forward. But what about someone like Marc Albrighton who shone for Villa and can be had for a measly 4.6m (his value has already gone up). Here's my take on the headline makers from week one in no particular order:
Steve Gerrard / Frank Lampard: I am concerned for this pair's ability to generate top level returns given the positions they took in their team's gameweek one games. Looking at the chalkboards below, we can see that both players took up rather deep positions and despite Lampard completing almost all his passes against weak opposition, most of them were not in dangerous positions.
Gerrard v Lampard chalkboard: too deep to dominate?
I voiced my approval for the premium strikers before the season and I am even further on board this strategy after watching the games this week. In the 4-5-1 formation there is room for the Mezhut Ozil / Kaka type 'trequartista' who could dominate the fantasy scoring charts but neither Lampard nor Gerrard are being deployed in this way, possibly due to the inclusion of natural forwards in the wide right position (Anelka and Kuyt) who often push the formation into somewhat of a lopsided 4-4-2.
There aren't any other players who fit this mold either but if you make Lampard/Gerrard just a very good central midfielder then give me James Milner and 4m any day. I am not willing to give up on this pair yet but I stick by my pursuit of premium strikers for the time being.
Gareth Bale: I wasn't particularly high on Bale before the season and I felt that most people were overvaluing him due to the clean sheet points he earned last year while classified as a defender. However, he looked very dangerous against a good City side, and seems locked into the first team lineup.
I am still concerned with how wasteful his passing is sometimes (see below) but the pundits didn't seem to be bothered when handing out the bonus points and so long as you can handle some inconsistency in his points, I think Bale should represent good value for the foreseeable future.
Bale chalkboard: wasteful in possession
Marc Albrighton: The Villa youngster looked very good in his debut and the fantasy managers have already reacted to the 4.5m player pushing his price up to 4.6m. However, the return of Gabby Agbonlahor will limit Albrighton's playing time and I think whoever the manager is at Villa will be keen to not put too much pressure on the teenager. I am currently filing him as one for the future and I think you'll spend more time frustrated by him giving you 12 minutes and 1 point than counting the points you won by being the first on the kid's bandwagon.
Paul Scholes / Darren Fletcher: This pair played tremendously well for United against Newcastle and I was particularly intrigued by Fletcher's forward runs and attacking influence. Scholes has developed into a Pirlo-like deep lying playmaker which allows Fletcher the room to run forward more, knowing that he has a few bodies protecting him. I'm not ready to buy either of these players yet but they have turned a somewhat fantasy-sparse United team into an intriguing squad of players, along with:
Nani: I am a proud Valencia owner and I have stated that I think he has a shot at being a top 5 midfielder this year. However, for me, Nani was the more dangerous player on Monday and his pass to Evra for Fletcher's goal was pure class. I cannot believe I have now championed both Nani and Walcott in the past few weeks but I think they have the chance to take the next steps to being mature wingers this season. I'm not buying yet but if Nani keeps this up he could develop into a very useful squad player.
Dimitar Berbatov / Javier Hernandez: I hate to ride the United bandwagon too much but I think there are goals in this team and one of these two players are going to get a chunk of them. I absolutely love Berbatov when he's "on"and during his best spell at Spurs I would have put him in the top 3 or 4 strikers in England. He actually had a good fantasy season last year (5.59 PPG and 0.607 PPMS - Rooney's was just 0.620) and he has started the season on fire in the Community Shield and in gameweek 1. He looked very hungry and seemed to be enjoying his football and the chalkboard below shows how involved he was, with touches all over the pitch.
Berbatov chalkboard: involved in the action all over the field
My concern is the presence of another player who has impressed - Javier Hernandez or "Chicarito". He plays like a goalscorer and looked fresh when he came on against Newcastle. While Rooney is getting back to fitness there are minutes for both these players but once fit, Rooney will take 90 minutes every week and the fantasy value of Berbatov and Hernandez may be limited. United have a pretty awesome set of fixtures through week 11 with only @Ful @Eve, Liv and Tot looking even vaguely threatening and so I think I will stick with Berbatov for now, but if Ferguson starts getting too happy with his rotation it's time to move on as 8.5m is simply too much money to have on the bench. Monitor this situation closely.
David Stockdale: Stockdale did okay in Schwarzer's absence and Fulham look like they are still a decent defensive side under Mark Hughes. If Schwarzer finally completes his drawn out move to Arsenal or somewhere else then Stockdale becomes a 4m starting keeper which are hard to come by and he would become a very useful asset for all teams, either in a rotation strategy or as the best 4m keeper around (no I'm not on board the Gilks / Mignolet or Carson trains just yet).
Phil Jones / Paul Robinson: Blackburn managed an opening day clean sheet against a decent Everton side, though ranked as the 9th best clean sheet bet for the week, it was hardly a huge surprise. I rated Blackburn's defense coming into the season and mentioned both Paul Robinson and Phil Jones before the season, however, Blackburn enjoyed very little possession against Everton - Yaya Toure completed more passes for City than the entire Rovers team - and against better teams that formula will not lead to clean sheets.
This week's trip to Birmingham is a good test for Allardyce's unit and if they get through it okay I think we can safely put Rovers into the decent mid-level defensive unit options. However, if they struggle to hold the ball again and look vulnerable it might be time to cut loose now given that they face Arsenal and City in GW3 and GW4. A quick note on Jones that may have been missed: he is lining up in midfield and was given man of the match by the pundits this week. That is a valuable combination and if Blackburn can show more defensive strength I think he is one of the best 4.5m options around.
Benoit Assou Ekotto: I held BAE for long chunks of last season and I was fairly satisfied with his performances for a while (3.20 PPG and 0.68 PPMS) though he never really excelled as I hoped. I feared for his place in the starting lineup this year as I wondered if either Bale or one of Spurs' several CBs would take the LB spot leaving BAE out in the fantasy wilderness. In fact he looked very good in GW1 and his left field partnership with Bale looked extremely promising. He was handed 2 bonus points which puts him in the pundit's eyes early on and opens the way for more rewards in the future. Spurs' defensive fixtures are good but not great so I wouldn't jump all over BAE per se, but if, like me, you are a Dawson owner, you might consider a switch if you have a spare transfer to allow for a bit of differentiation in your side (Dawson 25% owned, BAE 5%).
Marlon Harewood: Don't even think about it. There is a reason Harewood had no team until about a week before the season. Wigan are horrible and my Sunday league team may have scored 3 or 4 past them on Saturday.
James Milner: I wasn't expecting a big performance from the want-away midfielder but Milner played well by all accounts (I haven't seen the game) and grabbed the 3 bonus points. For all City's spending they don't really have any pundit favorites so Milner should be able to continue his bonus grabbing at Eastlands. I think Milner becomes a viable 9m option at City and should not only feature in most games, but also be protected by some very good players in Barry, Yaya Toure and De Jong. Assuming one of these makes way for Milner, you get a 4-2-3-1 shape with Milner playing alongside Silva and Tevez behind Balotelli with few defensive responsibilities. You can make a case that there is more talent there than that which surrounds either Lampard or Gerrard and thus Milner looks very interesting at 9m. He would currently by my 5th pick in midfielder regardless of price (Lampard, Gerrard, Cesc and Malouda still look very good) but when you take into account his lower price tag he might be ahead of anyone. I'm waiting a week or two for him to bed in, but then he will be very near the top of my transfer list, right around the time City play Bla, @Wig, New and @Bll in a 5 week spell.
Emmanuel Adebayor: Sell. I was on Ade before the season but he is far too expensive to ever be rested or rotated. Anelka, Bent and Defoe are much safer options who should finish the season with more points.
Mario Balotelli: I am excited by the arrival of Super Mario who dazzled me a couple of times in cameo appearances in the Champions League. As with most new arrivals I am staying away for now but as noted for Milner above, City have a good run of fixtures from GW4 on so if he can get into the team and prove his worth somewhere in that run he might be a nice option for anyone who is sick of Defoe/Anelka/Bent/Berbatov by that point. You have to think that Mancini plans to play Balotelli (that is of course if he had any say in who the board signed) so he should get plenty of chances to shine and his talent is undeniable. One to watch but hold off for now.
Wayne Rooney: Rooney looked a bit laboured against Newcastle and was clearly lacking both sharpness and confidence. I have little doubt that both of these will return but in the next 2 or 3 weeks the returns could be limited to the odd goal. His bonus points will be hurt by an inability to pursue his trademark closing down and passionate play and United have other strong options on the bench (Hernandez, Owen, Macheda) to pull Rooney off if he is struggling. For the immediate future I think Torres, Van Persie, Defoe and of course Drogba are all better options.
That round up turned into a bit of a random ramble so apologies if I lost any of you halfway through. I will be back very shortly with the GW2 preview include the usual clean sheet and captain rankings.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
2010 PRELIMANARY 1ºLEG CHAMPIONS LEAGUE | SPORTING BRAGA 1 SEVILLA FC 0
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2010 - 2011 action tonight with the 1ºleg pre-qualification matches results not good news for SPANISH FOOTBALL & its representative SEVILLA FC who went down 1- 0 to Portuguese Club SPORTING BRAGA. The Spaniards now have the difficult task - but not impossible - of turning the tie around next week when the Portuguese play the 2ºleg in Spain.The Spanish team started strong & hit
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
FRIENDLY GAME 2010 | STANDARD LIEGE 1 REAL MADRID 1
REAL MADRID played another Friendly pre-season match against Belgium Champions STANDARD LIEGE which finished in a 1-1 draw. The Spanish team went in with a "B -side" version in the 1ºst half that ironically played somewhat better than the theoretical stronger line-up of the 2ºhalf with Ronaldo, Xabi, Khedira, Canales, Di Maria...etc. It was Dutch midfielder RAFAEL VAN DER VAART who put Real ahead
REAL MADRID SIGNS MESUT OZIL FOR 15M€
The German Club WERDER BREMEN has decided to not risk & take the new 15M€ offer from REAL MADRID for its 21 year old midfielder MESUT OZIL. The midfielder will fly into Madrid tomorrow to pass the medical examinations to later sign his speculated 6 year contract with a 5 M€ salary per year.It has come to light that the father of Ozil & the player shut the deal at the home of Real Madrid President
Saturday, August 14, 2010
2010 SPANISH SUPER CUP 1º LEG RESULT | SEVILLA FC 3 FC BARCELONA 1
SPANISH FOOTBALL season 2010 - 2011 got started tonight with the 1ºleg of the 2010 SPANISH SUPER CUP between SEVILLA FC - FC BARCELONA which finished in a 3-1 victory for the home side. For the Barça fans overseas the starting line-up with the following players:Miño, Alves, Milito, Sergi Gómez, Abidal; Oriol Romeu, Jonathan dos Santos, Keita; Bojan, Ibrahimovic & Maxwell; may have surprised with
Pure Juice announce 2010/11 lineup
The talk is over and the season has kicked off. Without further ado then, I proudly introduce your 2010/11 Pure Juice lineup.
Keepers
J.Jaaskelainen
B.Foster
My love for the rotation strategy is well documented and I recently hinted that I like the combo of Jaaskelainen and Foster due the security of their jobs, their big league experience and the meshing of the pair's fixtures in the early part of the season. I see Foster starting the majority of games but Bolton are okay at home and with Foster's uncertain fitness, Jussi gets the gloves for week 1 as Bolton entertain Fulham at the Reebok. I'm happy with this pair though I imagine at least one of them will be moved as some point as a bargain keeper emerges once again.
Defenders
N.Vidic
J.Terry
S.Warnock
M.Dawson
S.Carr
My two key indicators here were opening fixtures and certainty of playing. I was tempted by Ferreira, Alex and Evans but I ultimately went for 5 players who will definitely play each week to open the season (barring injury) and whose teams face weaker opposition over the opening weeks. Vidic and Terry are both slightly more expensive than I like to spend on defenders but I liked United's and Chelsea's opening fixtures and felt this pair gave me good access to clean sheet, bonus and even goal opportunities. Villa and Spurs have good opening fixtures and Warnock and Dawson provide access to those teams without breaking bank so I'm pretty happy with this pair in the medium term.
Midfield
F.Malouda
A.Valencia
C.N'Zogbia
C.Y.Lee
C.Adam
The biggest controversy here is probably who I haven't picked - namely a top shelf midfielder like Lampard, Gerrard or Fabregas. Fabregas was in my team for a long time but with him likely to miss week 1 I decided I couldn't handle 10m on my bench from the kick off so I re-jigged a bit, but with Cesc in mind when Arsenal's fixtures look good. A similar story goes for Lampard though at 13m I think the only way I bring him in is as a defensive move if everyone else has him and I need to block his points (much like Ronaldo in his final season at United).
I'm a big fan of both Malouda and Valencia for this season and I think they both have top 5 potential among all midfielders. N'Zogbia and Lee are two players who had decent seasons last year but I think both have a higher ceiling than they have shown yet and remain good value at 6m and 5.5m respectively. I am a bit concerned with N'Zogbia throwing his toys out of the pram but I hope he can play well enough to either settle back in at Wigan or earn a move to another EPL team in the near future.
Finally, Charlie Adam's selection goes against my philosophy of picking proven players but his excellent goal scoring record along with his set piece duties made me think that the 5m price tag was okay. I think a couple of goals in the opening few games will see his price rocket due to the dearth of talent at that price range.
Forwards
D.Drogba
D.Berbatov
N.Kalinic
I have stuck with the high priced forwards on the basis that bargains are harder to come by here, and my top pair were going to be Van Persie and Drogba until RvP was all but ruled out of the start of the season. I have temporarily brought in Berbatov, who impressed last week in the Community Shield, due to United's favourable fixture, but he is unlikely to stick around for too long given the presence of Hernandez to snatch valuable minutes. I love Drogba again this year and he says he is fitter than ever which is daunting news for the rest of the league. I would say that Torres is still the best all round striker but issues over his fitness and supporting cast make Drogba the pick for me right now.
There are several decent budget strikers who I think can contribute as a third striker this year and I've gone with Kalinic after competition from Rodallega, Zigic and Campbell. This position will likely be in flux throughout the season as I try to capitalise on hot streals on good fixtures for my third striker.
I hope everyone is happy with their teams and not too many of you had Adebayor, Lescott, Kranjcar etc who already find themselves out of the first teams, just a few minutes into the new season. Let the games begin (not to mention the ridiculous stress this causes every Friday night/Saturday morning).
Keepers
J.Jaaskelainen
B.Foster
My love for the rotation strategy is well documented and I recently hinted that I like the combo of Jaaskelainen and Foster due the security of their jobs, their big league experience and the meshing of the pair's fixtures in the early part of the season. I see Foster starting the majority of games but Bolton are okay at home and with Foster's uncertain fitness, Jussi gets the gloves for week 1 as Bolton entertain Fulham at the Reebok. I'm happy with this pair though I imagine at least one of them will be moved as some point as a bargain keeper emerges once again.
Defenders
N.Vidic
J.Terry
S.Warnock
M.Dawson
S.Carr
My two key indicators here were opening fixtures and certainty of playing. I was tempted by Ferreira, Alex and Evans but I ultimately went for 5 players who will definitely play each week to open the season (barring injury) and whose teams face weaker opposition over the opening weeks. Vidic and Terry are both slightly more expensive than I like to spend on defenders but I liked United's and Chelsea's opening fixtures and felt this pair gave me good access to clean sheet, bonus and even goal opportunities. Villa and Spurs have good opening fixtures and Warnock and Dawson provide access to those teams without breaking bank so I'm pretty happy with this pair in the medium term.
Midfield
F.Malouda
A.Valencia
C.N'Zogbia
C.Y.Lee
C.Adam
The biggest controversy here is probably who I haven't picked - namely a top shelf midfielder like Lampard, Gerrard or Fabregas. Fabregas was in my team for a long time but with him likely to miss week 1 I decided I couldn't handle 10m on my bench from the kick off so I re-jigged a bit, but with Cesc in mind when Arsenal's fixtures look good. A similar story goes for Lampard though at 13m I think the only way I bring him in is as a defensive move if everyone else has him and I need to block his points (much like Ronaldo in his final season at United).
I'm a big fan of both Malouda and Valencia for this season and I think they both have top 5 potential among all midfielders. N'Zogbia and Lee are two players who had decent seasons last year but I think both have a higher ceiling than they have shown yet and remain good value at 6m and 5.5m respectively. I am a bit concerned with N'Zogbia throwing his toys out of the pram but I hope he can play well enough to either settle back in at Wigan or earn a move to another EPL team in the near future.
Finally, Charlie Adam's selection goes against my philosophy of picking proven players but his excellent goal scoring record along with his set piece duties made me think that the 5m price tag was okay. I think a couple of goals in the opening few games will see his price rocket due to the dearth of talent at that price range.
Forwards
D.Drogba
D.Berbatov
N.Kalinic
I have stuck with the high priced forwards on the basis that bargains are harder to come by here, and my top pair were going to be Van Persie and Drogba until RvP was all but ruled out of the start of the season. I have temporarily brought in Berbatov, who impressed last week in the Community Shield, due to United's favourable fixture, but he is unlikely to stick around for too long given the presence of Hernandez to snatch valuable minutes. I love Drogba again this year and he says he is fitter than ever which is daunting news for the rest of the league. I would say that Torres is still the best all round striker but issues over his fitness and supporting cast make Drogba the pick for me right now.
There are several decent budget strikers who I think can contribute as a third striker this year and I've gone with Kalinic after competition from Rodallega, Zigic and Campbell. This position will likely be in flux throughout the season as I try to capitalise on hot streals on good fixtures for my third striker.
I hope everyone is happy with their teams and not too many of you had Adebayor, Lescott, Kranjcar etc who already find themselves out of the first teams, just a few minutes into the new season. Let the games begin (not to mention the ridiculous stress this causes every Friday night/Saturday morning).
Friday, August 13, 2010
FRIENDLY GAME 2010 | BAYERN MUNICH 0 (2) REAL MADRID 0 (4) | REAL MADRID MAKES BID FOR OZIL
REAL MADRID faced tonight its most serious warm up match to date against BAYERN MUNICH & won finally in the penalty shoot-out 2-4 after the match finished 0-0 & after the regular 90mins. However, the scoreline is totally misleading as Bayern was far the better team & should have won had it not been for the current Best Goalkeeper in the World & Real Madrid player IKER CASILLASCasillas stopped a
Scanning the radar: Defenders
Having done earlier posts on forwards and midfielders, it's time to sneak in the defenders before the season starts. As indicated in an earlier piece on value against points earned, you can often find good value in cheaper defenders, along with those consistent performers who aren't flashy or exciting but do the business each year and give you consistent returns each week. Here are my favorite players 'under the radar' along with a couple of players just off the radar who need a bit of help before they become good pickups.
Under the radar
Fabio Aurelio (6.0m)
Given that Liverpool were willing to let Insua leave, it seems likely that he isn't going to be first choice at Anfield this season. There is a chance that Hodgson will bring in someone else (such as Konchesky who would become a steal at 5m) but until then Aurelio looks like he will be first choice at LB. Hodgson made Fulham into one of the best defensive units around and similar success at Liverpool, with more talented players, would make Aurelio and co very useful assets. At 6m Aurelio would be the best value (unless of course Skrtel wins the second CB job - see below).
Gael Clichy (6.0m)
Just a couple of years ago people were talking about Clichy as one of the best left backs in the league and one of the hottest prospects in all of football. After a so-so season at the Emirates he now seems to be an afterthought and is owned by just 4% of managers. True, he managed just 3.15 PPG last season but the Arsenal defensive unit should be better this year and I am backing Clichy to return to form and provide good differential value at 6.0m. I loved Vermaelen last season and I'd put him in the top 5 CBs in the league, but at 7.5m you are backing him to score 5+ goals again which seems like a stretch even for a man of Vermaelen's talents. I think Clichy is therefore the pick of the Arsenal back line.
Fabricio Coloccini (4.5m)
As I have mentioned a couple times in the pre season, I think Newcastle have the potential to be in 8-12 range of defensive units and therefore make good bargains this season. Coloccini played almost every game last year and should be one of the first names on the team sheet again this term. He doesn't bring a great deal of goalscoring or assist potential but his barnstorming style might attract some bonus points and I think he's a nice addition to any fantasy bench.
Aaron Hughes (5.0m)
Some players just never really get any respect. Hughes scored just 2 points less than Hangeland last season but yet is owned by 6% versus 19% of managers despite costing 0.5m less. Do I think Hangeland is a better player? Yes. Does that give you anymore points? Apparently not as Hangeland managed just 3 bonus points more than Hughes last year. When all is said and done Hangeland might just shade Hughes but until I see something else, give me the extra 0.5m any day.
Zat Knight (4.5m)
I've never been a huge fan of Knight and I was a bit underwhelmed when Bolton signed him a couple of seasons back. However, he has proven to be a pretty reliable defender and carries a decent goal threat from set pieces (though he managed just 1 last season). Bolton managed 5 clean sheets in Coyle's 20 games last season (having recorded 0 in the first 18 games) and for 4.5m Knight looks like a reliable defender who can be happily deployed when the matchup is right. As with Hangeland / Hughes, Cahill is a much better player (one of the league's better defenders) but I can't justify an extra 1m for talent alone.
Aleksandar Kolarov (6.0m)
Going against my mantra, this one is based on perception and judgment rather than statistical analysis as Kolarov is a newcomer to the EPL. However, what is factual were the 3 goals, 3 assists and 99 shots he managed last season at Lazio along with his nickname as the 'Serbian Roberto Carlos'. City managed 11 clean sheets last season and have added Boateng, Kolarov and Toure as protection to sit in front of what looks like a deep and talented back line. I don't love their opening fixtures but that should give you a week or two to assess whether Kolarov (and indeed City) are for real.
Off the radar
Agger / Skrtel
The winner of this battle will be decent value either for Agger's attacking potential of Skrtel's low price tag. The first couple of games (Ars and @MNC) are very tough anyway so monitor this situation and see who Hodgson likes to partner Carragher and act accordingly when the situation is clearer.
Alex / Bosingwa / Ferreira
As with Liverpool above, Chelsea have three player competing for the right to join the talented line of Cole, Terry and Ivanovic. Presuming Ancelotti likes Ivanovic at right back, Alex will be the man to win the job after Carvalho departed for Real Madrid. However, Ivanovic was originally a centre back and a shift back inside could open the way for a return to fantasy relevancy for Bosingwa or even Ferreira. Of this pair I think Bosingwa would win out when he is fit, though Ferreira should get a least a couple of games as both the Portguese right back and Alex start the season in the trainer's room.
Under the radar
Fabio Aurelio (6.0m)
Given that Liverpool were willing to let Insua leave, it seems likely that he isn't going to be first choice at Anfield this season. There is a chance that Hodgson will bring in someone else (such as Konchesky who would become a steal at 5m) but until then Aurelio looks like he will be first choice at LB. Hodgson made Fulham into one of the best defensive units around and similar success at Liverpool, with more talented players, would make Aurelio and co very useful assets. At 6m Aurelio would be the best value (unless of course Skrtel wins the second CB job - see below).
Gael Clichy (6.0m)
Just a couple of years ago people were talking about Clichy as one of the best left backs in the league and one of the hottest prospects in all of football. After a so-so season at the Emirates he now seems to be an afterthought and is owned by just 4% of managers. True, he managed just 3.15 PPG last season but the Arsenal defensive unit should be better this year and I am backing Clichy to return to form and provide good differential value at 6.0m. I loved Vermaelen last season and I'd put him in the top 5 CBs in the league, but at 7.5m you are backing him to score 5+ goals again which seems like a stretch even for a man of Vermaelen's talents. I think Clichy is therefore the pick of the Arsenal back line.
Fabricio Coloccini (4.5m)
As I have mentioned a couple times in the pre season, I think Newcastle have the potential to be in 8-12 range of defensive units and therefore make good bargains this season. Coloccini played almost every game last year and should be one of the first names on the team sheet again this term. He doesn't bring a great deal of goalscoring or assist potential but his barnstorming style might attract some bonus points and I think he's a nice addition to any fantasy bench.
Aaron Hughes (5.0m)
Some players just never really get any respect. Hughes scored just 2 points less than Hangeland last season but yet is owned by 6% versus 19% of managers despite costing 0.5m less. Do I think Hangeland is a better player? Yes. Does that give you anymore points? Apparently not as Hangeland managed just 3 bonus points more than Hughes last year. When all is said and done Hangeland might just shade Hughes but until I see something else, give me the extra 0.5m any day.
Zat Knight (4.5m)
I've never been a huge fan of Knight and I was a bit underwhelmed when Bolton signed him a couple of seasons back. However, he has proven to be a pretty reliable defender and carries a decent goal threat from set pieces (though he managed just 1 last season). Bolton managed 5 clean sheets in Coyle's 20 games last season (having recorded 0 in the first 18 games) and for 4.5m Knight looks like a reliable defender who can be happily deployed when the matchup is right. As with Hangeland / Hughes, Cahill is a much better player (one of the league's better defenders) but I can't justify an extra 1m for talent alone.
Aleksandar Kolarov (6.0m)
Going against my mantra, this one is based on perception and judgment rather than statistical analysis as Kolarov is a newcomer to the EPL. However, what is factual were the 3 goals, 3 assists and 99 shots he managed last season at Lazio along with his nickname as the 'Serbian Roberto Carlos'. City managed 11 clean sheets last season and have added Boateng, Kolarov and Toure as protection to sit in front of what looks like a deep and talented back line. I don't love their opening fixtures but that should give you a week or two to assess whether Kolarov (and indeed City) are for real.
Off the radar
Agger / Skrtel
The winner of this battle will be decent value either for Agger's attacking potential of Skrtel's low price tag. The first couple of games (Ars and @MNC) are very tough anyway so monitor this situation and see who Hodgson likes to partner Carragher and act accordingly when the situation is clearer.
Alex / Bosingwa / Ferreira
As with Liverpool above, Chelsea have three player competing for the right to join the talented line of Cole, Terry and Ivanovic. Presuming Ancelotti likes Ivanovic at right back, Alex will be the man to win the job after Carvalho departed for Real Madrid. However, Ivanovic was originally a centre back and a shift back inside could open the way for a return to fantasy relevancy for Bosingwa or even Ferreira. Of this pair I think Bosingwa would win out when he is fit, though Ferreira should get a least a couple of games as both the Portguese right back and Alex start the season in the trainer's room.
Week 1 Preview
Here we go again. The off season seemed to fly by thanks to the World Cup and it's aftermath but the show must go on and the English Premier League is back with what promises to be a great season. I cannot pick between Chelsea and United and I genuinely feel that both Arsenal and City could be champions come May time. Add in an intriguing managerial appointment at Liverpool, drama galore at Villa and the return of a giant (Newcastle) and the season looks setup for another thriller.
Week one throws up some interesting fixtures include a tone setter for Arsenal and Liverpool who clash at Anfield and a rematch of last season's Champions League decider between Spurs and City at White Hart Lane. Elsewhere, there are baptisms of fire for two of the newly promoted sides as Newcastle travel to Old Trafford and West Brom go to Stamford Bridge.
Hopefully your fantasy squads are settled by now, but if not then I urge you to look back at some recent articles on goalkeeper selection, strength of schedule and some analysis of how best to spend your budget. With that in mind, let's look at the upcoming week including the usual defensive and captain rankings along with a new piece where I highlight some budget players who might get short term minutes due to injury or rotation ('fifteen minutes of fame').
Defensive Rankings (expected goals conceded in parenthesis)
15 Minutes of Fame
A new section for this season where I try and highlight/predict (guess?) players who will play this week despite being available at a much lower price than their peers - usually because of injury or suspension. I will normally focus on cheap defenders in a good team, for example, if Ross Turnbull won some playing time at Chelsea for 4.5m. As suspensions haven't started yet and players aren't fatigued this list is probably a bit short this week but it should grow as the season goes on.
Rooney has 3 goals in the last 3 games against Newcastle and though I quite like Newcastle this year, I don't think they have the quality to deal with Rooney. I like Valencia to have a big season this year and really push into the upper echelons of Premier League midfielders. I wouldn't be surprised to see Berbatov or Hernandez do well here too but I am unwilling to rate them as captain worthy until we see who is Ferguson's preferred option.
I rate the Wigan pair of Rodallega and N'Zogbia highly and I think both will build on last season's solid campaigns this year. A good start against weak opposition (Blackpool) is a must and most of Wigan's success will flow through these two players.
We're hours way from the new season now but I hope to squeeze in a few underrated defender picks before we reach the big kick off so stay tuned if you need some help along your back line.
Week one throws up some interesting fixtures include a tone setter for Arsenal and Liverpool who clash at Anfield and a rematch of last season's Champions League decider between Spurs and City at White Hart Lane. Elsewhere, there are baptisms of fire for two of the newly promoted sides as Newcastle travel to Old Trafford and West Brom go to Stamford Bridge.
Hopefully your fantasy squads are settled by now, but if not then I urge you to look back at some recent articles on goalkeeper selection, strength of schedule and some analysis of how best to spend your budget. With that in mind, let's look at the upcoming week including the usual defensive and captain rankings along with a new piece where I highlight some budget players who might get short term minutes due to injury or rotation ('fifteen minutes of fame').
Defensive Rankings (expected goals conceded in parenthesis)
- Wolves (0.43)
- Man Utd (0.47)
- Aston Villa (0.53)
- Chelsea (0.54)
- Stoke (0.68)
- Sunderland (0.70)
- Bolton (0.72)
- Tottenham (0.75)
- Wigan (0.75)
- Blackburn (0.87)
- Liverpool (1.02)
- Everton (1.52)
- Fulham (1.56)
- Blackpool (1.70)
- Man City (1.94)
- West Ham (2.08)
- Birmingham (2.11)
- Arsenal (2.17)
- Newcastle (2.83)
- West Brom (5.01)
15 Minutes of Fame
A new section for this season where I try and highlight/predict (guess?) players who will play this week despite being available at a much lower price than their peers - usually because of injury or suspension. I will normally focus on cheap defenders in a good team, for example, if Ross Turnbull won some playing time at Chelsea for 4.5m. As suspensions haven't started yet and players aren't fatigued this list is probably a bit short this week but it should grow as the season goes on.
- Paulo Ferreira (5.5m). With Carvalho gone and Alex injured, Ivanovic moved across to centre back in the Community Shield with Ferreira grabbing a spot at right back. Bosingwa is still a couple of weeks away so Ferreira should give fantasy owners a couple of decent weeks (WB, @Wig, Sto, @WH, Blackpool) after which new options should have emerged to replace him with.
- John O'Shea (5.5m) - The perennial utility man is back in the first team once more, this time starting at right back against Chelsea in the aforementioned Community Shield. I am not sold on the fact that this position is his and I think United want Rafael to win the battle, but for a couple of weeks I think O'Shea is a decent, if somewhat risky, option if you need cheap access to a top team.
- Didier Drogba
- Frank Lampard
- Wayne Rooney
- Nicolas Anelka
- Darren Bent
- Hugo Rodallega
- Florent Malouda
- Antonio Valencia
- Charles N'Zogbia
- James Milner
Rooney has 3 goals in the last 3 games against Newcastle and though I quite like Newcastle this year, I don't think they have the quality to deal with Rooney. I like Valencia to have a big season this year and really push into the upper echelons of Premier League midfielders. I wouldn't be surprised to see Berbatov or Hernandez do well here too but I am unwilling to rate them as captain worthy until we see who is Ferguson's preferred option.
I rate the Wigan pair of Rodallega and N'Zogbia highly and I think both will build on last season's solid campaigns this year. A good start against weak opposition (Blackpool) is a must and most of Wigan's success will flow through these two players.
We're hours way from the new season now but I hope to squeeze in a few underrated defender picks before we reach the big kick off so stay tuned if you need some help along your back line.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY 2010 | FINAL RESULT MEXICO 1 SPAIN 1 | SPAIN DEFENDS WORLD TITLE
The SPANISH NATIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM defeated well its recently won FIFA World Champion crown with a hard fought 1-1 draw against MEXICO in the 200th anniversary of the Mexican Nation-state Friendly International match at the “Azteca Stadium”.Spain went into this game with most of its regular starters coming in straight from holidays, with “jet-lag” & having to overcome altitude obstacles. However,
EUROPEAN U 21 2010 | FINLAND 1 SPAIN 1 | SERIOUS STUMBLE
The Spanish U21 National Team suffered a serious setback this afternoon when they only managed a 1-1 draw away to Finland. The Spanish U-21 Team will now need to win their last 2 remaining games & see whether other teams stumble. The objective was to gain a place in the 2011 European Championships to be held in Denmark, platform that gives access to the London Olympic Games. Group 4 leader
FIFA RANKING | AUGUST 2010 | SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAM REMAINS Nº1
FIFA has released today its monthly National Team rankings with little surprises. The SPANISH NATIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM who won exactly a month ago the 2010 FIFA World Cup leads the ranking as newly crowned World Champions, a title they will debut with tonight against Mexico in a Friendly International.The table takes in consideration the yearly trayectory of the National Teams & not just the World
Goalkeeper Pairs
Last season I did a piece that proved to be quite popular regarding the two keeper strategy of picking players whose fixtures complement each other so as to maximise the number of good games you get. Though I whiffed with one of my picks (Kirkland) the other three cheap keepers - Sorensen, Jaaskelainen and Robinson - all had good seasons (top 12 GK) and along with Joe Hart gave you plenty of budget options to deliver value at the GK position.
This season I am sticking with the same strategy, especially after my recent analysis that player cost is not a great indicator of future points for keepers. With that in mind, the below shows which 'keeper pairs sit well together in order to maximize the number of games played against weaker teams. Initially I only considered players valued at 4.5m or less from teams I considered to have a chance at doing okay this season (sorry Blackpool, this means you're out).
The pairs in order of average goals scored by opponents are as below, looking over the course of the season (playing a single keeper for an entire season would be equal to a GPG of 1.43):
Expanding the field
Not wanting to restrict our picks too much, it might be useful to see what happens if we include the 5.0m players in the analysis. The top pairs for the first 10 games of the season then become:
Conclusion
I am setting up with the Jaaskelainen / Foster combination based on the fact that I think both teams are still underrated, both players have a a history of success in both reality and fantasy, and the fixtures sit well together. Bolton managed just 5 clean sheets last season but all of them came under Owen Coyle in the final 20 games of the season and Jaaskelainen still managed to finish 12th among all keepers (ahead of van der Sar and Almunia and just 15 points behind Given).
Note: Ben Foster is currently listed as questionable for the opening day fixture but given that Bolton have a home game anyway, I will be playing Jussi under my strategy so this hasn't play a massive part in my thought process.
As always thanks for reading and if anyone thinks I have missed a pair of keepers unfairly from the analysis, post in the comments below and I will add their shared GPG to the listings.
This season I am sticking with the same strategy, especially after my recent analysis that player cost is not a great indicator of future points for keepers. With that in mind, the below shows which 'keeper pairs sit well together in order to maximize the number of games played against weaker teams. Initially I only considered players valued at 4.5m or less from teams I considered to have a chance at doing okay this season (sorry Blackpool, this means you're out).
The pairs in order of average goals scored by opponents are as below, looking over the course of the season (playing a single keeper for an entire season would be equal to a GPG of 1.43):
- Ben Foster / Marcus Hahnemann - 1.02
- Paul Robinson / Steve Harper - 1.06
- Ben Foster / Steve Harper - 1.07
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Ben Foster - 1.07
- Paul Robinson / Ben Foster - 1.07
- Paul Robinson / Jussi Jaaskelainen - 1.07
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Steve Harper - 1.10
- Paul Robinson / Marcus Hahnemann - 1.13
- Marcus Hahnemann / Steve Harper - 1.15
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Marcus Hahnemann - 1.15
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Ben Foster - 0.94
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Steve Harper - 0.94
- Paul Robinson / Steve Harper - 0.95
- Marcus Hahnemann / Steve Harper - 1.00
- Ben Foster / Steve Harper - 1.00
- Ben Foster / Marcus Hahnemann - 1.00
- Paul Robinson / Ben Foster - 1.04
- Paul Robinson / Jussi Jaaskelainen - 1.05
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Marcus Hahnemann - 1.07
- Paul Robinson / Marcus Hahnemann - 1.16
Expanding the field
Not wanting to restrict our picks too much, it might be useful to see what happens if we include the 5.0m players in the analysis. The top pairs for the first 10 games of the season then become:
- Rob Green / Steve Harper - 0.89
- Thomas Sorensen / Steve Harper - 0.89
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Ben Foster 0.94
- Jussi Jaaskelainen / Steve Harper - 0.94
- Paul Robinson / Steve Harper - 0.95
- Thomas Sorensen / Jussi Jaaskelainen - 0.99
- Marcus Hahnemann / Steve Harper - 1.00
- Thomas Sorensen / Ben Foster - 1.00
- Ben Foster / Steve Harper - 1.00
- Ben Foster / Marcus Hahnemann - 1.00
Conclusion
I am setting up with the Jaaskelainen / Foster combination based on the fact that I think both teams are still underrated, both players have a a history of success in both reality and fantasy, and the fixtures sit well together. Bolton managed just 5 clean sheets last season but all of them came under Owen Coyle in the final 20 games of the season and Jaaskelainen still managed to finish 12th among all keepers (ahead of van der Sar and Almunia and just 15 points behind Given).
Note: Ben Foster is currently listed as questionable for the opening day fixture but given that Bolton have a home game anyway, I will be playing Jussi under my strategy so this hasn't play a massive part in my thought process.
As always thanks for reading and if anyone thinks I have missed a pair of keepers unfairly from the analysis, post in the comments below and I will add their shared GPG to the listings.
INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY | MEXICO SPAIN | POSSIBLE SPAIN STARTING 11 LINE UP
The SPANISH NATIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM will be back in action tonight in an International Friendly game against Mexixo in the latters "Azteca Stadium". Only two National teams have managed a victory in their first game after being crowned FIFA World Champions (Argentina 1978, Brazil 1994) since 1978. The mayority have debuted with the "World Champion Star" on their shirts with a loss.The match is
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAM 2010 WORLD FIFA CHAMPION TRIBUTE VIDEO
Spanish Football Sports Blog has whipped up this video to pay tribute to the SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAM for their FIFA 2010 WORLD CUP win & World Champions title.
REAL MADRID SIGNS CHELSEA DEFENDER RICARDO CARVALHO
The news has spread like wildfire this evening here in Spain, REAL MADRID has come to an agreement with CHELSEA FC to transfer 32 year old defender & Portuguese International RICARDO CARVALHO for 8M€. The operation is believed to be on the verge of officiality as all parties work to shut all the fine details in the coming hours. The offer to the player is a two year contract with another year as
SPAIN DEBUTS TOMORROW WITH "WORLD CHAMPIONS STAR" AGAINST MEXICO IN INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY GAME
The SPANISH NATIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM will play its first International Football match tomorrow with the "Star" on their shirt as World Champion. Spain plays Mexico away tomorrow at the famous "Azteca Stadium". However, debuting tomorrow with the long wished & hard fought "World Champions Star" may also turn out to be the Spanish Teams first defeat since winning the World Cup Final against Holland a
Strength of Schedule
Without wishing to tread on the toes on the first weekly preview post for the season, I thought it might be useful to quickly run through the strength of schedules for the new season, as these should factor into - but not wholly drive - your initial squad.
Readers from last season will know how much I love looking at a team's fixtures, and I will often state how I prefer a good fantasy player (say, Clint Dempsey) with a great fixture over a great fantasy player (say, James Milner) with a so-so fixture. This holds true to an extent though two important caveats should be noted here:
Best Schedules
With the caveats in place, let's look at the best fixture lists over the opening six weeks (a somewhat reliable time-frame) and see if anything stands out that might act a tie break if you are torn between two similar players.
So what stands out? First, Villa have a very favourable set of fixtures; over a 5th of a goal better than anyone else. Combine this with one of the best defensive teams around from last year who haven't really lost anyone in the off season and it looks like a recipe for success. I highly recommend getting at least one Villa defender in your team, and if you were bullish on them anyway, you might want to roll the dice with a second (this is risky though).
Second, Birmingham once again look like good value and I think they are undervalued based on last year's performances. True Joe Hart is gone but Ben Foster is a decent replacement and the rest of the defense is intact. I think they once again make excellent rotation options and these fixtures suggest that they are good value early on.
A potential sleeper team is Newcastle, whose defenders can be had for 4m. I'm not saying these guys will be clean sheet kings but I think they have a useful unit (who conceded 35 in 46 last season) and will be particularly strong at St James Park. I would be more than happy stashing a Newcastle defender on the bench and hoping to gain a bit of cash should they play well in the first few weeks.
Finally, of the most fancied sides, Liverpool have the toughest run and you might want to bear this in mind before investing heavily in Glen Johnson or Pepe Reina. I do like the Liverpool defense this year but I for one will be targeting them in week 6 onwards after two trips to Manchester and a home game with Arsenal are behind them.
Not long until the season now so please keep checking back for regular updates to try and help you pick your final squads.
Readers from last season will know how much I love looking at a team's fixtures, and I will often state how I prefer a good fantasy player (say, Clint Dempsey) with a great fixture over a great fantasy player (say, James Milner) with a so-so fixture. This holds true to an extent though two important caveats should be noted here:
- Don't get too cute - I would never drop Lampard on a weekly basis for someone like Steve Pienaar as there are sound reasons why Lampard costs twice as much: he plays for a top team, takes penalties and dominates the bonus category. You may look at Lampard's fixtures and decide that over a 6 game period his production might be limited and therefore look to sell him, but dropping a star is never recommended unless there are questions over whether he might play.
- When it comes to picking your opening day squad, ideally you are picking the team who you think will be the best over the course of a season. This means that while the strength of the opening fixtures do matter, they should not drive your squad selection: if you like Robin van Persie to win the golden boot then buy him now and enjoy the upcoming price rise, even if you don't like his opening fixture at Liverpool.
Best Schedules
With the caveats in place, let's look at the best fixture lists over the opening six weeks (a somewhat reliable time-frame) and see if anything stands out that might act a tie break if you are torn between two similar players.
- Aston Villa (opponent's score an average of 0.98 goals per game)
- Chelsea (1.19)
- Birmingham (1.21)
- Man Utd (1.25)
- Newcastle (1.31)
- Tottenham (1.35)
- Wolves (1.36)
- Arsenal (1.36)
- Everton (1.38)
- Man City (1.38)
- Blackburn (1.38)
- Fulham (1.38)
- Wigan (1.47)
- Bolton (1.51)
- Sunderland (1.57)
- Stoke (1.57)
- Liverpool (1.60)
- West Ham (1.61)
- Blackpool (1.66)
- West Brom (1.94)
So what stands out? First, Villa have a very favourable set of fixtures; over a 5th of a goal better than anyone else. Combine this with one of the best defensive teams around from last year who haven't really lost anyone in the off season and it looks like a recipe for success. I highly recommend getting at least one Villa defender in your team, and if you were bullish on them anyway, you might want to roll the dice with a second (this is risky though).
Second, Birmingham once again look like good value and I think they are undervalued based on last year's performances. True Joe Hart is gone but Ben Foster is a decent replacement and the rest of the defense is intact. I think they once again make excellent rotation options and these fixtures suggest that they are good value early on.
A potential sleeper team is Newcastle, whose defenders can be had for 4m. I'm not saying these guys will be clean sheet kings but I think they have a useful unit (who conceded 35 in 46 last season) and will be particularly strong at St James Park. I would be more than happy stashing a Newcastle defender on the bench and hoping to gain a bit of cash should they play well in the first few weeks.
Finally, of the most fancied sides, Liverpool have the toughest run and you might want to bear this in mind before investing heavily in Glen Johnson or Pepe Reina. I do like the Liverpool defense this year but I for one will be targeting them in week 6 onwards after two trips to Manchester and a home game with Arsenal are behind them.
Not long until the season now so please keep checking back for regular updates to try and help you pick your final squads.
REAL MADRID LOOKS AT KUKAKU OR IS FERNANDO LLORENTE THE REAL OBJECTIVE?
A smokescreen? Spanish Sports daily “Marca” at times sells smoke & have published today that REAL MADRID has added on their list of possible signings ANDERLECHT young forward ROMEU LUKAKU. Real Madrid Coach José Mourinho “surprised” some with declarations after the LA Galaxy friendly game that the team needs a third striker to compete with Higuain & Benzema, plus guarantee the maximum levels to
Monday, August 9, 2010
MESUT OZIL CLOSER TO FC BARCELONA ? HIS DECISION? REAL MADRID?
There seems to be a three way Club “battle” to make with the services of WERDER BREMEN & German 21 year old International MESUT OZIL. If last week REAL MADRID was said to be the destination, either for this season or next, it seems that MANCHESTER UNITED has entered the picture along with FC BARCELONA, the latter is now said to have the “leading edge” according to local Spanish media sources &
REAL MADRID | A RECORD 1.022M€ SPENT ON NEW SIGNINGS SINCE THE YEAR 2000
Hi guys back from some days of holidays & glad to be with you again with Spanish Football news & curiosities.An interesting story featured today in Spanish Sports daily “Marca” on REAL MADRID & their spending on new players since 2000. Real Madrid is the Club that most money has “invested” (spent) on new signings since the year 2000 in the whole World of Football. The below diagram illustrates
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Thinking Outside the Box
“It never occurred to them that, if everyone had to think outside the box, maybe it was the box that needed fixing” [Gladwell, What the Dog Saw
]
This suggests that bargains are hard to come by when it comes to strikers and only a couple of players can be described as anomalous outliers last year (Bent, Tevez and Rodallega all outperformed their value). When it comes to minutes played, the four best ‘overachievers’ are the big four of Drogba, Rooney, Tevez and Torres (to be expected given their individual and team talent).
The data shows that while, of course, the top players will always usually deliver good returns, there is value to be had elsewhere. Also, relying merely on a player getting consistent minutes is not enough to guarantee good returns in the future.
To conclude then, it seems that the old adage of getting 'reliable minutes' is not always a useful measure of fantasy success and we should look for other means of determining value. While it seems obvious to say that price dictates performance, we can see that this holds truer for forwards than for other positions and so it seems wise to once again spend money up front, so long as you feel the EPL forwards will enjoy another good season.
]When picking a fantasy team, like when trying to win anything, most participants will search for an ‘edge’ or secret formula to give them a jump-start over their opponents. This may take the form of relying on industry knowledge (“a friend of mine is a scout at Spurs and he assures me Assou Ekotto will retain his starting LB position from last season”), trend analysis (“Rooney scores 69% of his goals against bottom half teams”) or historical performance (“high price midfielders always out deliver their expensive forward counterparts”). This quest for more information works on the assumption that the common ‘knowledge’ is at best limited and at worst incorrect.
How true is this though? In NFL fantasy we are told to draft running backs in the first round, in baseball anyone who can deliver speed and power is a sure fire early pick and the EPL game is no different in giving us several age old adages upon which we base our team. One of them that interested me is how reliable a measure of success is the number of playing minutes a player generates in the season. Many – including this blog – will often praise the virtues of the reliable player will who play 90 minutes each week and while not win you the league, will never lose one either. Let’s take a look at the numbers:
Forwards
The correlation between forward minutes and points is strong (0.772) which is in line with common sense – if you don’t play you will struggle to achieve the main aim of a forward: score goals. What is also worth noting is the strong correlation (0.726) between points scored and player value.
This suggests that bargains are hard to come by when it comes to strikers and only a couple of players can be described as anomalous outliers last year (Bent, Tevez and Rodallega all outperformed their value). When it comes to minutes played, the four best ‘overachievers’ are the big four of Drogba, Rooney, Tevez and Torres (to be expected given their individual and team talent).
You can summarize this position as ‘you get what you pay for’. It is going against recent history to expect to find a forward equivalent of a 2008/09 Stephen Ireland or a 2009/10 James Milner. Players like Amr Zaki 2008/09 have done it to a degree but failed to keep it up for a whole season, instead leaving you to try and capture lightning in a bottle.
In summary, the data from last year underlines the need to pay for big name strikers. A look over the message boards at Fantasy Football Scout suggests that many consider this to be an anomaly and are returning to the big midfield names, but until I see otherwise, I will be paying a premium for strikers who can be relied upon not just for minutes but also for goals.
Midfield
The correlation between midfield points and minutes is much weaker than with forwards, and indeed at 0.535 we can conclude that there is only a weak linkage.
Admittedly the sample size is quite a lot larger than forwards but still the number of both over and underachievers is noticeable. This is somewhat of an eye opener to me as I have often stuck with midfielders through baron patches on the basis that they are guaranteed to play – which I thought was a useful measure of overall success. In fact, you are better chasing points a bit and trying to find the form player rather than stubbornly sticking with the player who just isn’t delivering the goods.
The linkage between points and value is once again relatively strong at 0.701 showing once again that you get what you pay for. Plenty of outliers exist though and this line of best fit is somewhat skewed up by the outstanding returns delivered by Lampard and Fabregas.
Defenders
The key lesson here is the lack of correlation between value and points – standing at just 0.559.
Thinking about this for a second, this suggests that all those United, Chelsea and Liverpool players are overvalued and you should continue to pursue players from team such as Fulham and Villa last season. This makes sense due to there being 2 ways to ‘beat the market’ when it comes to defenders. Firstly, a team’s players are undervalued, like with Birmingham last season, whose players could mostly be picked up for 4.5m or less. The second is a player on a premium team who is valued significantly below his teammates but still gets the same access to clean sheets. These are hard to find right away but much success has been enjoyed in previous seasons with players like Johny Evans, Armand Traore, Martin Skrtel and Roy Caroll who have all gained significant runs in top teams despite costing several million less than their teammates.
Now, be careful here, as we are not saying the top defenders to not deliver at all. Indeed, of the top 10 leaders in points only Jody Craddock who scored an unlikely 5 goals was available at a low price. What we are saying though is that, comparatively speaking, there is better value to be found lower down the price lists than with forwards and midfielders.
Goalkeepers
Not much to say about value against points as there is not a strong correlation (0.619) and the best points delivered by 4m and 4.5m players comes close to that delivered by the most expensive players.
I emphasized last season that you should not pay for a goalkeeper – instead relying on a rotation system – but even if you simply played someone like Sorensen or Hart every week you were still rewarded with much better value and only 20 points less over the whole season.
As you would expect the correlation between minutes and points is extremely strong but there isn’t much fantasy advice to gain here other than make sure your ‘keepers are playing!
I am sticking with the rotation strategy for this season, and I will post shortly who I think complement each other well to avoid having to play unfavourable matchups as often as possible.
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