I meant to post this a few days back but I was having some troubles with Tableau (my skill level not the software, which is great). Anyway, here are the forecasts goals per game for the first ten gameweeks of the season based purely on prior year data. The calculation uses a combination of a team's own defense and the strength of the opposition to generate the expected goals scored/conceded.
I haven't made any adjustments for transfers, manager changes etc as that is all too subjective and if I overlay my personal opinions on the relative strengths of the new arrivals then the data just becomes an extension of my own biases which are helpful to no one. If you believe that Tottenham will be much better with Vertonghen in defense then feel free to make the mental adjustments yourself.
For the promoted teams I use a factor to translate their Championship data into a Premier League expectation. This is explained in more detail here.
Note that for the GW1 double gameweeks, the goals scored table shows the combination of both games. On the defensive side we can only see the best fixture, with the details of both games to follow in the more detailed weekly preview. The GW3 fixture for Reading and Chelsea (or lack of it) should obviously appear as red in both tables but given the way Tableau assigns colours it is currently showing as green in the goals conceded table. Needless to say having no game is not a good thing, but I can't work an easy way around it at this stage.
I haven't made any adjustments for transfers, manager changes etc as that is all too subjective and if I overlay my personal opinions on the relative strengths of the new arrivals then the data just becomes an extension of my own biases which are helpful to no one. If you believe that Tottenham will be much better with Vertonghen in defense then feel free to make the mental adjustments yourself.
For the promoted teams I use a factor to translate their Championship data into a Premier League expectation. This is explained in more detail here.
Note that for the GW1 double gameweeks, the goals scored table shows the combination of both games. On the defensive side we can only see the best fixture, with the details of both games to follow in the more detailed weekly preview. The GW3 fixture for Reading and Chelsea (or lack of it) should obviously appear as red in both tables but given the way Tableau assigns colours it is currently showing as green in the goals conceded table. Needless to say having no game is not a good thing, but I can't work an easy way around it at this stage.
No comments:
Post a Comment