Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Changing Schedules

We place an emphasis on strength of schedule around these parts, with the weekly rankings constituting a blend of a team's own ability along with their opponents. At this point in the season everyone has played each other once but you can get a significant differences in future strength of schedule based on where those games have been played (ie are your remaining tough games at home/away, did you already play the 'big teams' twice?)

The below tables show the average goals per game of a team's opponents to date (Avg) and the average goals per game of a team's next 8 opponents (Next 8). On the defensive side we hope to see a negative difference (ie easier games are to come) while offensively we want to see a positive number.

I wouldn't get carried away with these numbers as we already account for strength of schedule in the weekly rankings, but for some teams it could help explain their offensive or defensive struggles and signify an improvement in the future.

The data can be somewhat misleading in that Man City may well be ranked at the bottom precisely because they haven't played their future opponents twice yet (and likely put a couple past them) but hopefully there is something to learn here (though it's too late for me to draw many conclusions right now).


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