Where's the value?

I really don't know what to make of this season. The increased parity (by EPL standards) we are witnessing is great for competition but is wreaking havoc with the fantasy game. My top 7 ranked teams this week were about as good a clean sheet bunch as you're going to get on paper yet only Blackburn (2nd) and Everton (7th) managed to live up to their ranking with United (1st) and Newcastle (3rd) each conceding two goals at home.

At the start of the season I wrote a piece about the correlation between points and cost which was strongest among forwards and hence we should focus our attention on the big name strikers. Meanwhile bargains at the defensive positions, and to an extent the midfield, meant that value can be found more easily here and hence it was less important to spend big on premium players. 8 weeks into the new season and the correlation between cost and points per 90 minutes is as below:

• Goalkeeper 18%
• Defender 42%
• Midfield 41%
• Forward 36%

What does this mean? It's a freaking crap shoot! We are basically saying that all that glitters is not gold (goal?) and that you cannot simply plug in a player like Gerrard, Torres, Rooney or one of the countless other flops on the basis that things will even out and he'll 'come good'. With that in mind, what else might be a good indicator of success? Strength of schedule played to date?

• Goalkeeper 24%
• Defender 28%
• Midfielder 19%
• Forward 15%

As expected, this is a better measure of success for keepers as no matter how good a player you are and who you play for, you're better trying to stop Marlon Harewood scoring than Didier Drogba (groundbreaking stuff I know). For outfield players though the correlation is even weaker which is again what we'd expect as good fixtures can only help you do a degree, but this doesn't help us select our team. A good schedule merely enhances a player's prospects rather than makes them.

Well if nothing else, last's year success is at least a good starting point, right . . .

• Goalkeepers 3%
• Defenders 33%
• Midfield 58%
• Forwards 54%

Keepers are basically a coin flip and this is why I never pay for them. The midfield and forwards show at least some signs of logic but still nothing we can overly rely on.

This is where I bring it all together and tell you the magic factor to predict future value, right? Unfortunately not. There is no magic bullet. Clearly something is going right as the worldwide standings will attest but I can't tie it all together and come up with a strategy to exploit this crazy season right now. So it's back to the drawing board to try and figure out a way to explain the scores seen to date so far. Stay tuned for an attempt at an answer by the weekend.