Thursday, December 17, 2009

Gameweek 18 Preview

Gameweek 18 Fixtures
Portsmouth v Liverpool

Aston Villa v Stoke City

Blackburn v Tottenham

Fulham v Man Utd

Man City v Sunderland

Arsenal v Hull City

Wolves v Burnley

Everton v Birmingham

West Ham v Chelsea

Wigan v Bolton


Alot of us suffered a tough gameweek over the midweek games and will be looking to bounce back here. Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all face comparatively weak opposition and so there should be plenty of goals to go around. The premium players should be back in force with Drogba expected to be fit and Torres should surely get a start after his midweek goal. Fabregas appears likely to miss out but his injury is less serious than expected and he could figure next week.

Clean Sheet Rankings (adjusted GPG in parentheses)
  1. Aston Villa (0.6) - HOLD
  2. Arsenal (0.8) - HOLD
  3. Man City (1.0) - BUY
  4. Man Utd (1.1) - BUY
  5. Wolves (1.3) - HOLD
  6. Blackburn (1.3) - HOLD/SELL
  7. Liverpool (1.4) - BUY
  8. Portsmouth (1.4) - SELL
  9. Wigan (1.4) - HOLD
  10. Birmingham (1.4) - BUY
  11. Chelsea (1.5) - BUY
  12. Everton (1.5) - SELL
  13. Fulham (1.5) - SELL
  14. Bolton (1.6) - HOLD
  15. Tottenham (1.6) - BUY
  16. Stoke (1.6) - HOLD
  17. Sunderland (1.9) - SELL
  18. Burnley (2.1) - HOLD
  19. West Ham (2.3) - SELL
  20. Hull (2.9) - SELL
The top of the list is dominated by premium teams but budget options can still be found even within these premium backlines. Warnock (4.9m) provides a good option at Villa, Silvestre (4.4) should get a game this week for Arsenal while De Laet (4.5m) apparently impressed Ferguson and could get another start for United this week. Chelsea don't have a great fixture after their poor run of form but West Ham's solid home GPG score of 1.9 is skewed somewhat by their early form and the 5 goals they put past Burnley. I'd be pretty happy starting anyone from Chelsea up this week but be mindful that the above represents the season's form and extra consideration for form needs to be added in (I am trying to devise a new formula to do this).

Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Fernando Torres
  3. Andrei Arshavin
  4. Frank Lampard
  5. Nicolas Anelka
  6. Darren Bent
  7. Richard Dunne
  8. Emmanuel Adebayor
  9. Hugo Rodallega
  10. Eduardo
Drogba is obviously a massive risk this week and I will be looking for some positive confirmation that he will play before I hand him the armband this week. That said, West Ham are giving up 2.38 GPG and I can't see them stopping Drogba and co this week. I equally love Torres this week even though the fixture isn't quite as good on paper (Portsmouth only give up 1.5 GPG at home). No defense is a match for a fully fit Torres and I am hoping that after only playing for just 30 minutes midweek the Spanish hitman will be back to full strength. Fabregas would have been the top pick this week as Hull surrender 2.63 GPG but in his place I like Arshavin to step up and have a big game. The lack of other Arsenal stars means that only Eduardo also cracks the top 10. The Villa defense looks like the best pick this week and the goal and bonus threat from Dunne makes him a great play this week.

African Nations
With just three gameweeks until most African players depart, its time to start considering whether to sell them now of wait until the death. Drogba is a great play this week but next week Chelsea travel to stingy Birmingham and that could be a window to switch Drogba for Torres or Rooney before the masses sell him and his value falls. Adebayor is out of form and might be a sell now anyway. Not many other players are widely owned enough to justify selling early so I'd only sell when they leave.

Why not post your lineup and transfer questions below or tweet them @plfantasy.

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