Gameweek 4 Preview

It seems like an eternity since the last Premier League games, though despite my dislike for the international break, we actually got through relatively unscathed with only a few injuries of note. In short, we've lost Van der Vaart, Vermaelen, Jarvis, Nasri, Richards, Long and Bent though from that group only Van der Vaart and Vermaelen look like the long term casualties.

Hopefully you resisted the urge to jump into any rash decisions immediately after the last gameweek finished and so can take these latest developments in stride as you look to shape your team for the coming weeks. A few readers have asked about playing their wildcard, which probably deserves a separate post, but given a lack of other stories for this week I thought it might be worth quickly discussing here.

For me, the key is striking a balance between not overreacting but acting quickly enough to avoid stubbornly holding on to worthless assets. You should be in a position where you need to get rid of 5 or more players due to injury/long term questions rather than simply giving up with players like Van Persie or Cahill who may not have started the way you envisioned. I will be updating the list of players I consider ready to cut loose soon.

The second key point about using your wildcard is not chasing points. A three week sample of success is not enough to base your team on, so don't abandon the (presumably) well thought out plan you had to start the season with. If you simply pick your team using the highest scores to date you will end with a homogeneous team which is very similar to everyone, yet you're already 50 points behind because you were too late to the party on Aguero, Dzeko, Bosingwa etc.

If you need to play your wildcard this early, you should basically consider it a season reset and use the same principles you would use to start a new season with. You won't be able to make substantial changes again until 2012 so don't overly use fixture lists, instead focusing on which teams you like and who gives you the best value for money from those teams. Think Arsenal will improve with the new arrivals? Grab Van Persie or Arteta. You like Chelsea to turn a corner and start scoring goals galore? Consider adding Mata or Torres. Don't worry too much that Liverpool have to travel to Stoke this week, over the next 18-20 weeks, all schedules will essentially even out.

There's more on these general points from last year here, and I'll try and get a full post up soon to cover this season. With that, let's get onto this week's rankings (a slight change here, I am only commenting on teams where there is something interesting to note. If not, you just get their weekly ranking).

Clean Sheet Rankings
(Forecast goals conceded, clean sheets kept - opponents failed to score in parenthesis)

1. Man City vs Wigan (0.75, 13 - 8) - the potential loss of Richards isn't a big concern defensively as Zabaleta should slot in without too many issues. With that uncertainty, Kompany remains the safest pick here.
2. Arsenal vs Swansea (0.88, 9 - n/a) - this ranking is of course driven by last season so downgrade the Gunners if you aren't convinced Mertesacker and Santos can tighten up this unit once again.
3. Stoke vs Liverpool (1.05, 7 - 5)
4. Chelsea at Sunderland (1.13, 5 - 5) - a big game for Bosingwa as David Luiz should be available for this one meaning that if Bosingwa still starts, that spot is his to lose for the season.
5. Everton vs Aston Villa (1.15, 6 - 6)
6. Fulham vs Blackburn (1.20, 10 - 7) - interesting to see if Senderos holds his place here with the arrival of Grygera to play right back (and potentially push Hughes back inside). If so, we can conclude that he should remain a starter in the medium term and remains excellent value. If not: welcome to dumpsville
7. QPR vs Newcastle (1.20, n/a - 7) - a good opportunity to see if all the new arrivals can help this unit become fantasy relevant. 
8. Wolves vs Tottenham (1.38, 4 - 5) - a stiffer test to see if this improving unit is for real
9. Sunderland vs Chelsea (1.45, 7 - 8)
10. Bolton vs Man Utd (1.45, 5 - 5)
11. Newcastle at QPR (1.47, 6 - n/a)
12. Liverpool at Stoke (1.53, 6 - 4) - the team is clearly better but they haven't looked great at the back yet this season. This is a good test of their progress.
13. Man Utd at Bolton (1.55, 5 - 4)
14. Tottenham at Wolves (1.55, 3 - 3)
15. Wigan at Man City (1.63, 5 - 3)
16. Aston Villa at Everton (1.78, 1 - 3)
17. West Brom at Norwich (1.89, 0 - n/a)
18. Blackburn at Fulham (1.90, 1 - 4)
19. Swansea at Arsenal (2.08, n/a - 5)
20. Norwich vs West Brom (2.10, n/a - 9)

Attacking Rankings

(Forecast goals scored in parenthesis)

1. West Brom at Norwich (2.10) - it's been tough to evaluate this team thanks to injuries to key players and the tough schedule to open the season. If Odemwingie and Long can get fit for this one, it serves as a good game to see how good this team can be.
2. Arsenal vs Swansea (2.08) - Arsenal's fixtures are very good, none more so than this week's visit of Swansea. Van Persie is the safest pick with the new arrivals being high risk/high reward plays this week. Check back on Friday to see if Wenger gives us clues how the new look side will line up.
3. Fulham vs Blackburn (1.90)
4. Norwich vs West Brom (1.89)
5. Everton vs Aston Villa (1.78) - a good game to monitor two middle table teams who have some potentially elite players (Bent and Cahill). Need to see more from Everton if we're going to consider their players this year.
6. Man City vs Wigan (1.63) - Wigan were surprisingly tough on the road last year but this is a new City team. Despite this ranking it is very hard to not recommend captaining your Citizens this week.
7. Wolves vs Tottenham (1.55)
8. Bolton vs Man Utd (1.55)
9. Stoke vs Liverpool (1.53)
10. QPR vs Newcastle (1.47)
11. Man Utd at Bolton (1.45) - United weren't great away from home last year and if Rooney is going to challenge the likes of Aguero as the points leader, he needs to perform in this kind of game.
12. Chelsea at Sunderland (1.45) - a tough game for Chelsea and a good chance to see how Mata looks over a full game, presuming he gets the start.
13. Tottenham at Wolves (1.38)
14. Newcastle at QPR (1.20)
15. Blackburn at Fulham (1.20)
16. Aston Villa at Everton (1.15)
17. Sunderland vs Chelsea (1.13)
18. Liverpool at Stoke (1.05)
19. Swansea at Arsenal (0.88)
20. Wigan at Man City (0.75)

Captain Picks

Arsenal get the best fixture but until we see how this team fits together it's hard to look beyond Robin Van Persie. Even then, with United enjoying good fixtures too, it's going to be hard to accommodate to the Dutchman in your team over the coming weeks. For most that would entail ditching Aguero or Suarez and hence taking a hit at the back or in midfield. I might need to see more from Arsenal before being willing to shakeup my side.

Of the City bunch, it's hard to pick between them and neither Aguero, Dzeko, Silva or Nasri have really shown any trends over a small sample to suggest they might be better at home or against a particular opponent. Silva had his worst game of the year last week and seemed to suffer with Nasri's inclusion but he remains an elite option until we see for sure that his positional deployment suffers with Nasri in the side. Nasri looks like he may have broken his hand so I'm ruling him out of contention which leaves the two forwards. I was leaning towards Aguero in this one on the simple basis that when all else is equal go with the player who you believe is more talented. However, I neglected to consider the internationals, which saw Aguero travel the globe to play just over 20 minutes of football (seriously) while Dzeko stayed home in sunny Manchester. The Bosnian has been immense so far this year and the extra week off gives him the edge for GW4 in the captain ranks.

[Edit: I am reliably informed that Dzeko actually did play for Bosnia midweek so enjoys no advantage over Aguero after all (I blame ESPN for that screw up). With that, I would now lean towards Aguero as Dzeko becomes a rotation risk with Tevez sniffing around. Also, it is never sunny in Manchester]

It's hard to take the armband away from Rooney who has been excellent so far but he has a substantially trickier fixture than City and Arsenal and United often flattered to deceive way from Old Trafford last year. He still remains an elite option and I would personally only even consider giving Van Persie and the City trio the armband ahead of him. 

Elsewhere, Suarez gets a tricky fixture while Bent looks too banged up to rely on. I still have no idea what to make of Chelsea and I wouldn't feel comfortable captaining anyone from that side right now.

These weekly previews will start to become more stat heavy as the season progresses but right now I am kind of torn between giving the narrative from this year or overusing stats from last year which could be argued to be out-of-date. Don't worry though, we're getting there. 

Notebook Preview: Newcastle United

Looking back at last season

• Provided decent value at the back with 9 clean sheets, evenly spread between home (4) and away (5).


• Failed to score in 10 games, though only 3 of these were at St James' Park where the Magpies are deadly. 2.16 GPG at home was second only to Man Utd


• Not a great deal of production from the 'keepers (2.8 PPG) though they did deliver decent value as Harper and particularly Krul came at a very low price.


• The defensive unit provided decent value for money (9th in P$) and made useful spot starters. Whoever solidifies there place in the side alongside Coloccini and Jose Enrique should provide decent value again, particular is it's any of the 4.0m options.


• The midfield was also fairly average (13th in PPG and P$), especially when you take out bonus magnets Barton and Nolan


• Amazingly, the front line gave the best value in the league with a P$ of 1.33. The problem was that the points were widely dispersed between 4 or 5 players, without much indication of who would excel each week. The arrival of Ba may change this for the new season.


• Team can be streaky but when they're on they are very good. Scored 4 or more goals 5 times, second only to Chelsea.

Predicted lineup
Harper (4.5m), Jose Enrique (5.0m), S Taylor (4.5m), Coloccini (5.0m), Simpson (4.0m), Gutierrez (6.0m), Cabaye (6.0m), Gosling (5.0m), Ben Arfa (5.5m), Ba (6.5m), Lovenkrands (5.5m)

Safest Picks
Demba Ba . . . played extremely well last year on an inferior team adding 7 goals in just 933 minutes (xG 26) . . . didn't add an assist last season suggesting his scoring could be one dimensional . . . some depth at the position but they all lack Ba's class and should rotate to compliment him rather than take his minutes . . . at 6.5m he's in a good group of players, allowing you to pick and choose based on runs of games . . . will likely compete with Cabaye for penalty duties 

Upside Plays
Steve Taylor . . . cheaper than Coloccini and Jose Enrique but likely to play as many minutes . . . a genuine goal threat (7 goals in last 38 games) available at no premium . . . to fully gain the benefit of defender goals you really need to play them every week which is an issue with Newcastle who are very inconsistent . . . worth a bench spot, unclear if he can be a starter yet

Hatem Ben Arfa . . . can't seem to keep fit . . . possibly the most talented player on the team and his upside far exceeds the 5.5m price tag . . . with Barton likely gone, he could inherit plenty of set pieces when fit . . . shouldn't be owned in GW1 but someone to monitor who could bring genuine class for sub-6m.

Danny Simpson . . . has the same issues as Taylor but lacks the offensive upside . . . at 4.0m though he has the chance to be one of just a handful of minimum price players to get significant minutes . . . doesn't appear to be a great deal of quality options other than Simpson with Ryan Taylor a liability at the back (Newcastle conceded over 2 GPG when he played versus 1.5 for Simpson).

Yohan Cabaye . . . reputation as a good penalty taker  . . . with Barton likely out Cabaye could inherit the majority of set pieces . . . great goal scoring record at Lille (31 in 191 games) including a 13 league goal season in 2009/10 . . . risky to consider him from day one but another played to monitor (will probably get some chalkboard attention after his first game)

Jose Enrique . . . not particularly valuable in a Newcastle shirt as Taylor seems to be better value . . . persistent rumors of a move to Arsenal or Liverpool would make him valuable there though . . . no need to make a move yet but continue to monitor transfer news for any changes 

No Thanks
Fabricio Coloccini . . . hard to justify his valuation at 0.5m more than Taylor . . . scored a couple of goals last year but I don't see that as particularly projectable and his upside is no higher than Taylor's

Joey Barton . . . no stats needed here . . . even if they let him back it seems only a matter of time before the next issue blows up . . . has some nice upside and is a good player but not worth the headache at this point

Fixtures
Ars, @Sun, Ful, @QPR, @Ast, Bla, @Wol, Tot

Defensively it's a decent start for Newcastle whose only really tough game comes in GW1. Along with Arsenal, only the trip to Molineux sees Newcastle face a side who averaged more than 1.5 GPG and so there should be opportunities to notch a couple of early clean sheets. Considering the strength of this defense, I wouldn't go overboard and expect elite production but the solid schedule provides a nice bonus to Taylor and Simpson's value making them good early rotation options.

Offensively the fixtures also look solid with only two really tough fixtures based on last year's numbers (Fulham and Villa). Blackburn were terrible on the road last year and don't look like they have substantially improved while Arsenal, Sunderland, Wolves and Spurs all conceded around the 1.5 GPG mark. Throw in the newly promoted QPR and this run of fixtures should provide some joy for the Newcastle front men, if you can ascertain who will take advantage.

Final Thoughts
There is some talent on this roster but it's hard to pin down where the fantasy points will come from. Going into GW1 I would probably only be really comfortable starting Ba, though I'd be happy holding the cheaper defensive options on the bench. It seems likely that someone from the midfield group will emerge as reliable player with Cabaye looking like an intriguing option given his previous goalscoring record. One of my key rules is to not pick an unknown entity though, so I would advise holding off on him for now.

It's really unclear how this team will fair this year and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them in 8th or 18th after 10 games. More information is needed given the number of injuries and new arrivals and so they might be a team to monitor rather than invest it for the most part.

All the team previews can be found here along with a host of other special features. Please post any questions or comments below or @plfantasy.

Gameweek 36 Preview

The league title might be decided this weekend but the fantasy season keeps going and with three gameweeks left there is still plenty to play for. On a personal level I set the bar for a successful season at 2,000 points so anyone flirting with that still has something to aim for. Add in countless mini leagues that remain unsettled and the importance of these games becomes clear. The key to the week is undoubtedly the DGWs for City and Spurs though be careful about over doing it here as the matchup between the two doesn't play out as a great fixture for either. Also consider that Spurs have to go to Anfield next week before loading up on too many of Redknapp's boys.

Clean Sheet Rankings

1. Man City (5 - 2) and (10 - 3)
2. Fulham (9 - 4)
3. Man Utd (10 - 6)
4. Tottenham (5 - 7) and (2 - 3)
5. Aston Villa (6 - 8)
6. Bolton (5 - 8)
7. Newcastle (4 - 5)
8. Everton (5 - 6)
9. West Ham (4 - 5)
10. Wolves (3 - 7)
11. Stoke (6 - 2)
12. Chelsea (4 - 0)
13. Wigan (3 - 4)
14. Arsenal (4 - 3)
15. Liverpool (5 - 3)
16. West Brom (0 - 3)
17. Blackburn (1 - 3)
18. Sunderland (5 - 3)
19. Blackpool (5 - 4)
20. Birmingham (3 - 3)

The DGW pair are obviously good options this week as if nothing else they should avoiding conceding more than the odd goal and hence lock in 4 points for your defenders. Do I see big scores though? Not from Spurs but maybe from City. I try not to bring too many judgmental factors into these rankings but a glance at the table shows us that Spurs have to win every game from now on while City have to not lose. A quality team intent on not losing a game can be a recipe for success when it comes to clean sheets and hence they get a bump in the rankings despite the tough fixture on paper (the same can be said for Man Utd).

Of the cheaper non-DGW teams Fulham have the best remaining games while Bolton also look like a decent investment. Aaron Hughes and Gary Cahill make good mid-range options for the final 3 games of the year.

Attacking Rankings

1. Tottenham (3.41)
2. Man City (3.28)
3. West Brom (1.81)
4. Arsenal (1.62)
5. West Ham (1.56)
6. Aston Villa (1.45)
7. Liverpool (1.41)
8. Fulham (1.40)
9. Everton (1.25)
10. Blackburn (1.22)
11. Man Utd (1.21)
12. Chelsea (1.17)
13. Birmingham (1.14)
14. Bolton (1.13)
15. Newcastle (1.12)
16. Wolves (1.03)
17. Sunderland (1.00)
18. Stoke (0.99)
19. Wigan (0.98)
20. Blackpool (0.95) 

Captain Picks
Despite my reservations, the captaincy is really going to boil down to the DGW pair as the majority of the other top options square off at Old Trafford:

• Rafael Van der Vaart - he seems to tick all the boxes - guaranteed minutes, set piece duties and three category potential. Spurs rank as the best attacking team of the week and the Dutchman is their best option. The clear pick of the week and possibly worth paying 4 points for. The downside is that everyone else will be doing the same thing. 

• Luka Modric - he's in good form but he can't compete with VdV on a fantasy basis and is a fringe fantasy player at best.

• Gareth Bale - at times he has been close to a must own player but he's been quiet of late and like Modric he is barely fantasy relevant these days. Better value can again be found but hold him if you already have him.

• Luka Modric - he's in good form but he can't compete with VdV on a fantasy basis and is a fringe fantasy player at best. 

• Jermaine Defoe - see Bale, Gareth

• Michael Dawson - with Assou Ekotto out, Dawson looks like the best bet at the back though he doesn't deliver anything outside of clean sheets. With one game against City (in which Spurs need to win and hence attack) Dawson's success comes down to the game against Blackpool and on a single game basis the stats suggest Fulham, United and even Villa are better options this week. Worth a look as your third or fourth DGW option if you already hold a few but not a priority pickup.

• David Silva - In terms of talent he would be close to a no-brainer but with the FA Cup final coming up next week it's pretty likely than Silva is (a) dropped for the Everton game to save him for Spurs or (b) having won this week (and secured a Champions League spot) he is rested against Spurs. Either way he looks like a huge risk to get 180 minutes such is the availability of players like Adam Johnson and Shaun Wright Phillips.

• Carlos Tevez - it looks to be too soon for Tevez who may return for the cup final but likely not before then.

• Mario Balotelli - again, the safe minutes are just not there. Of those with  high ceiling he might be worth a punt but it really would be a risk at this point. Only those needing to gain ground on opponents should apply.

• Yaya Toure - probably the safest option attacking option for City. Toure has played a lot of minutes this year (2606) and is rarely substituted when he plays. With 5 goals, 6 assists and 14 bonus points he's shown he can contributed in every category. His upside is probably fairly low but he does have seven games with six points or more and two in double digits. Not sure I'd pay to get him but he's a good use of your free transfer.

• Aleksandar Kolarov - probably not guaranteed to play twice but his chances are pretty good. Throw in his versatility which sometimes allows him to play further upfield and you have a solid fantasy option. With one defensive spot occupied by a midfielder (Kompany) and Toure out indefinitely it has become harder to pick City defenders but I still like Kolarov for the remainder of the year.

• Joe Hart - the only sure fire to get two defensive games this week. I don't generally advocate paying for expensive 'keepers but if you have money lying around or that is easily accessible then Hart may just be worth the investment. He has a decent chance at 3 clean sheets for the remainder of the year.

As has been the case for a couple of weeks now, your strategy is really dictated by whether you are leading or chasing the pack in your league. If chasing you may need to pay for a couple of the above players as this is the last chance to really differentiate your team.

Fabregas and van Persie: 2 + 2 = 5

Fantasy soccer is different to other sports for many reasons but one of the key differences is that players on the same team don't really 'take away' from each other. By this I mean that in fantasy football the presence of another running back or indeed a 260 lb goal line back, can hurt if not kill a teammate's fantasy value due to him stealing carries or, more importantly, goal line carries. The same can be true in basketball (but probably to a lesser extent) in that there are really only a finite number of possessions in an average game and so the presence of LeBron James clearly hurts the fantasy value of Dwayne Wade (how much depends on how much extra offense they can generate to share between two players - okay 2.5 if you count Chris Bosh).

In soccer, nothing is really limited aside from the total time of the game. Shots can vary in a game from 1 to 40 and team possession can range from 35% to 65%. Therefore the presence of other good players can help fantasy production for both individuals. 2 + 2 really can equal 5.

Readers will know my love for Cesc Fabregas and based on stats my decision to bring him in was foolish. However, what isn't factored into the stats to date is the return of Robin van Persie who when fit is one of the ten best players in the league. I looked at the stats from last season to see how the two performed with and without the other player in the league. I then extrapolated the data to give a 38 game season's worth of data based on the trends observed


Fabregas

• Without Van Persie: 18 goals, 8 assists
• With Van Persie: 23 goals, 34 assists

Van Persie

• Without Fabregas: 12 goals, 0 assists
• With Fabregas: 27 goals, 27 assists

Admittedly the totals are high because this data is based on a purple patch of form during which the pair played last season, but still the point made is clear. In the 10 games the pair played together in last season they scored 13 goals, and added 16 assists between them.

I am not expecting this kind of production when the two are fit (which is probably a couple of weeks away anyway). However, this is the kind of event you need to factor into your decisions and purely historical analysis cannot account for this, without doing separate research as laid out above. I therefore feel that Fabregas is still worthy of consideration despite his disappointing form, even if I must concede that he is not a top level option right now. Indeed, my main rationale for holding him is a lack of interest in any of the other high priced midfielders.

I'm sure this might be a bit controversial given manager's dissapointment with Fabregas this year so please post some comments below or @plfantasy and let the fun begin.