Showing posts with label Stephane Sessegnon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stephane Sessegnon. Show all posts

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Lineup Lessons Gameweek 22

Arsenal
Szczesny, Djourou, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Koscielny, Rosicky, Song, Ramsey, Walcott, van Persie, Oxlade-Chamberlain
Subs: Almunia, Park, Squillaci, Arshavin, Benayoun, Miquel, Yennaris.

It was a pleasant surprise to see Oxlade-Chamberlain in their starting lineup given the recent struggles of Arshavin. He didn't disappoint either, impressing with his movement, composure and football IQ (sorry, Theo) which led to a good assist for Van Persie's goal. We're always looking for fantasy value in this Arsenal team and at 5.7m Ox has some makings of that very player. However, this was his first league start and only his third appearance so be careful not to get carried away here. Maybe Wenger decides to throw him out there for the rest of the season (he can't be much worse than Arshavin and Walcott have been at times this year) but it's too risky to make that leap right now. I want to say more, but there just isn't much else of interest in this lineup.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Clark, Collins, Dunne, Albrighton, Petrov, Gardner, Bent, Agbonlahor, Keane
Subs: Guzan, Warnock, Cuellar, Baker, Bannan, Delfouneso, Weimann

Warnock was a surprise omission here though he did come on at half time and one would expect he'll stay in this side long term. Whether or not the Villains provide any defensive value is another question though.

Strangely, Villa have score three goals in each of their last two road games but struggled at home against Swansea and Everton. Keane is intriguing to say the least given his price tag, but I would issue some caution over a player who converted his only two shots on target into goals. He has shown an eye for goal in the past of course, but I'd like to see Villa generate more chances for him before jumping on board. Bent is interesting as a differentiator but for me he's too expensive given that he doesn't contribute anything outside of goals (and the bonus points that come with them).

Blackburn
Robinson, Lowe, Dann, Givet, Olsson, Nzonzi, Hoilett, Petrovic, Dunn, Pedersen, Goodwillie
Subs: Bunn, Modeste, Formica, Rochina, Vukcevic, Hanley, Henley.

This lineup is becoming more predictable but in terms of points concentration, there is little to get excited about with Yakubu missing. The results have improved of late but they still don't look like a side who are going to keep clean sheets and the goals are spread thin across a number of overpriced options.

Bolton
Bogdan, Steinsson, Knight, Wheater, Ricketts, Eagles, Reo-Coker, Muamba, Petrov, M Davies, Ngog
Subs: Lynch, Sanli, K Davies, Pratley, Boyata, O'Halloran, Riley.

Three goals from unlikely sources don't add much to this team's fantasy fortunes, who look a lot like their northern rivals Blackburn. N'Gog has looked pretty useful since breaking into the side and is worth monitoring but it's tough to see him overtaking the likes of Helguson, Graham or Morison in that budget category. Coyle seems to be more committed to the 4-5-1 now which should allow Eagles to play more often (he was sometimes exposed in a 4-4-2) and his nice assist this week shows he has some talent. I'm not sure I see much in him that you can't get elsewhere (Ben Arfa, Moses, Dyer, Morrison) but he deserves consideration alongside that group.

Chelsea
Cech, Bosingwa, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Ramires, Lampard, Meireles, Sturridge, Torres, Mata.
Subs: Turnbull, Ivanovic, Essien, Romeu, Malouda, Lukaku, Bertrand.

A few people jumped on Cahill early and I thought he had an outside chance to play here. Villas-Boas said after the game that he had some "team principles" to learn though that begs the question when Luiz will be taught those same principles. Assuming Cahill takes over at centre back he will be good value but with a clean sheet here, you have to be cautious about how soon that move will happen. Torres had chances again here and everything suggests he is a sleeper candidate (talent, bad luck, good support players) but yet he just looks devoid of confidence and hopeful, rather than confident, that the net will bulge. If you're in a deep hole he deserves brief consideration but I'd suggest it's a needless risk at this point. Essien will likely crack the first team very soon and that should have a positive impact on the team, though I'm not sure it's going to catapult this team's fortunes to the point where you're ready to spend big money on the available assets. If a team ever needed a quality January signing it's this one.

Everton
Howard, Neville, Duffy, Heitinga, Baines, Donovan, Gibson, Fellaini, Anichebe, Cahill, Saha
Subs: Mucha, Hibbert, Bilyaletdinov, Drenthe, Stracqualursi, Gueye, Vellios.

Blackburn at home is one of the better fixtures a team can have, but as reflected in this week's rankings (Everton were 10th) the Toffees just aren't that good at the back. The goal, of course, was unlucky but Blackburn were probably good value for their point with Everton playing fairly uninspired stuff all day.  Donovan looked pretty good and warrants ownership, but I'm somewhat concerned by the lack of goal scoring opportunities he receives. Good, but not outstanding value at 7.0m. I want to be able to recommend Drenthe who has been impressive during most of his cameos but his defensive weakness seems to be keeping him out of the side and he is too pricey to play so sporadically.

Fulham
Stockdale, Kelly, Hangeland, Senderos, JA Riise, Ruiz, Murphy, Sidwell, Duff, Dempsey, Zamora
Subs: Etheridge, Baird, Johnson, Gecov, Hughes, Frei, Briggs.

After his first goal I asked on Twitter why no 'big' team has ever been in for Dempsey and no one really had an answer. I am not encouraging the move (I hate it when the rich teams unimaginatively steal all the middle teams' talent) but with the inevitable decline of Gerrard and Lampard, is there a better goalscoring midfielder around in the league? His first goal showed the instincts (and luck) of a number 9, while his third simply showed a player utterly convinced he was going to score (the anti-Torres so to speak). A full write up on my wildcard team is to come, but I'll be honest, I brought Dempsey in as a one week hire, due to be replaced next week by Bale. I've got a tough decision to make this week now though.

I thought Johnson was excellent off the bench but probably won't get enough minutes to warrant ownership while Zamora also looked good but is priced in a tough spot between the budget options in the ~5m range and the classier group (Ba, Sturridge, Dzeko). Probably not enough upside to justify his 6.6m tag.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Maxi, Henderson, Adam, Bellamy, Gerrard, Carroll
Subs: Doni, Coates, Kuyt, Downing, Carragher, Shelvey, Kelly.

This team has talent, but I'm not sure it's enough to overcome the premium those players come with due to the badge on their shirt. The defense was pretty awful against Bolton and while I still like them at the right price, even if you have Enrique at 5.5m I don't think he is undroppable. The next three gameweeks don't project to be great for this defense and it might be time to look elsewhere if you're wildcarding this week. Bellamy was fancied by many this week and rewarded their faith with a well taken goal, giving him four goals in his last three starts. If you're wildcarding he is worth a look, as you can then move him on in four weeks when Suarez returns, but I'm not sure I'd spend two transfers on him given their opponents over that time (Wol, Tot, MnU, Eve).

Man City
Hart, Richards, Savic, Lescott, Clichy, Barry, Milner, Silva, Aguero, Nasri, Dzeko
Subs: Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Johnson, Kolarov, Onuoha, De Jong, Balotelli.

No real surprises here. City are prone to poor defensive days (especially without Kompany) but we can chalk this one up to the quality of the opposition rather than any significant concerns for Richards and company. They remain an elite group of defenders to hold. Silva continues to chip away with good scores with his production finding a great combination of consistency and upside. One goal in five games for Aguero makes one a touch nervous and his lack of chances today compounds that concern. Van Persie remains in a league of his own right now but Aguero is still right there behind him, you just need to decide if he's worth the money required to get him over Adebayor, Ba or Dzeko.

Man Utd
Lindegaard, Jones, Smalling, Evans, Evra, Valencia, Carrick, Giggs, Nani, Rooney, Welbeck.
Subs: De Gea, Berbatov, Park, Hernandez, Fabio, Rafael, Scholes.

Most sources had Rafael starting at right back but I think they continue to underestimate Ferguson's confidence in Evans. Even before the injury to Jones I would suggest Evans was in line to play most games for the remainder of the year. With so many injuries this may not be a truly elite defense but Evans and Lindegaard are obviously good value when they play and are worth a spot in your squad if you're confident in your other options. With the way he's playing Valencia has overtaken Nani as the best value midfielder in this side and Nani owners should consider how they could use that couple of million elsewhere in their team. Like Aguero, Rooney has been kept quiet in recent weeks and actually failed to register a shot on goal this week. However, the notion of 'form' is flawed and he is playing well enough to deserve consideration for any fantasy side. A home game with Stoke looks like a good way to cure those blues. Many will be tempted by Welbeck but I still think Hernandez has a big part to play in this side and at 6.6m Welbeck is too pricey to have him sit every other week, even if he's great value when he plays.

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, Williamson, Coloccini, Santon, Ben Arfa, Guthrie, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Best, Ameobi
Subs: Elliot, Lovenkrands, Perch, Gosling, R Taylor, Obertan, Ferguson.

Who knows what to make of this defense? They aren't without value but the last four road games have seen them concede 5, 3, 0 and 4 and they were all over the place again this week. The decision to keep Santon in the side over R Taylor seems curious as he hasn't done much to impress since breaking into the side and was left wanting again against Fulham. I'd still be happy holding Simpson, Williamson or Taylor but they aren't every week starters anymore so you need sufficient depth and rotation options to accompany them. Going forward I like Ben Arfa as the pick of the bunch here and rate him as a good 4th or great 5th midfielder.

Norwich
Ruddy, Martin, Whitbread, Ayala, Naughton, Fox, Johnson, Pilkington, Surman, Morison, Holt
Subs: Steer, Drury, Crofts, Jackson, Hoolahan, Bennett, Wilbraham.

Don't get overly excited about this defense, who conceded 19 shots and were bailed out by the good form of Ruddy and the poor finishing of Torres and co. I was surprised to see Ruddy had an ownership of 12% and with several cheap options available, I don't understand the logic behind owning him, or any of the Norwich defense for that matter. This midfield has some talent but I wouldn't rate them as highly as the Swansea group. The next games are pretty favourable though so the likes of Pilkington or Surman are intriguing options.

QPR
Kenny, Young, Hall, Ferdinand, Hill, Mackie, Buzsaky, Barton, Wright-Phillips, Helguson, Campbell.
Subs: Cerny, Orr, Derry, Bothroyd, Smith, Ramage, Macheda.

Helguson continued his good form, and it could have been better but for Al-Habsi's heroics from the spot once again. He makes an excellent 3rd forward, adding four more shots this week to accompany his penalty duties. I wouldn't put him alongside Fletcher but he's atop that group of ~5.5m or cheaper players. I don't see much else here to hold our interest.

Stoke
Sorensen, Woodgate, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Shotton, Whelan, Delap, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Begovic, Jones, Fuller, Pennant, Whitehead, Wilkinson, Jerome.

Along with Liverpoool, Stoke's defense was a huge disappointment this week and you wonder if they will ever become a reliable unit again this year. Given that Shawcross and Huth are priced above those available elsewhere, the oft-injured Woodgate looks like the best value option, but he too carries significant risk of his own. I'm not crazy about Walters anyway and the potential loss of penalty duties further hurts his value. I would advise his owners to start making alternative plans.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Bardsley, O'Shea, Brown, Richardson, Larsson, Cattermole, Vaughan, McClean, Bendtner, Sessegnon
Subs: Westwood, Turner, Gardner, Wickham, Ji, Meyler, Elmohamady.

Unlike Walters, I think Sessegnon is for real, though I'm still a bit concerned that his current goal/shot conversion rate is unsustainably high. He's probably the best player in this team though and anytime you can get that for a good price you have to be interested. McClean has really caught the eye since breaking into the first team and looks like one of the best sub-5.0m options around. Don't expect him to continue his 6.0 P90 for much longer but he should definitely warrant spot starting when your other options face tough games.

Sunderland have only conceded more than a single goal twice in their last eight games, adding two clean sheets in the last five weeks. Only one game (GW25 - Arsenal H) registers as a tough game in the eight week forecast, making this one of my favourite defenses to buy into. Mignolet and a fit again Brown look like the best ways to make that happen.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Taylor, Dyer, Britton, Sinclair, Allen, Sigurdsson, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Routledge, Monk, McEachran, Moore, Agustien, Richards.

What's good for the team isn't always good for fantasy, and the arrival of Sigurdsson and McEachran may fall into this category. The midfield suddenly looks a bit crowded and while it's still a good source for fantasy value, predicting regular minutes just got harder. Dyer would appear to be fairly safe as the most natural wide player (along with the oft-benched Routledge) and he wasn't taking many set pieces anyway (which seem to have been stolen by Sigurdsson). Graham remains the best uber-cheap forward but I like Helguson more if you can afford it. This defense remains a great value unit, particularly at home.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Kaboul, King, Assou-Ekotto, Lennon, Parker, Modric, Bale, Van der Vaart, Defoe.
Subs: Cudicini, Pavlyuchenko, Bassong, Dawson, Kranjcar, Livermore, Pienaar.

No Adebayor of course due the terms of his loan arrangement, but otherwise it was as expected for Redknapp's side. Not too much to add on this lineup who provide good fantasy value at each position.

West Brom
Foster, Tamas, McAuley, Olsson, Shorey, Thomas, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Morrison, Cox, Fortune
Subs: Fulop, Mattock, Tchoyi, Long, Jara Reyes, Odemwingie, Dawson.

Over the last four gameweeks, six midfielders have registered double digit shots: Mata, Bale, Dempsey, Van der Vaart, Modric and Morrison. There is obviously potential with Morrison but my concern is that his points have come in a couple of big games followed by weeks of mediocre returns. The encouraging part is that those big games have come against weaker opponents, suggesting his success is at least somewhat predictable. No one owns him (0.4%) and the price is pretty good making him shortlistable if you're looking to do something a bit different. The other two options in the West Brom side who I liked - Long and Odemwingie - were both benched this week, rendering this team fairly useless outside of the aforementioned Morrison.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Gohouri, Caldwell, Boyce, Figueroa, Gomez, McCarthy, Watson, McArthur, Moses, Rodallega
Subs: Pollitt, Crusat, Di Santo, McManaman, Sammon, Stam, Lopez.

Al Habsi is a perfect advert for why you don't pay for 'keepers. Wigan have the league's second worst defense yet he ranks 7th among all 'keepers this year, thanks to his save points (especially those from the spot). There aren't any other every week starters here but I'd suggest that Gomez and Moses are worthy of consideration as a 4th or 5th midfielder. Rodallega is a name worth watching as he appears to have re-secured a spot in the first team and is clearly one of this team's most talented players when in form. He doesn't represent incredible value at 5.9m (I like Fletcher and Helguson more) but Wigan have a good run of fixtures from GW24-29 and he could be well placed to take advantage.

Wolves
Hennessey, Ward, Johnson, Berra, Foley, Edwards, Kightly, Henry, Frimpong, Jarvis, Fletcher
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Stearman Hunt, Milijas, Ebanks-Blake, Doyle

My Fletcher boosting is well documented and I really liked him this week so was disappointed with the outcome. Wolves managed to add a couple of goals but Fletcher was quiet throughout with just a single shot on goal. He was however involved with the play (48 touches and 34 passes) and I'm happy owning him over the coming weeks in spite of the tricky fixtures. There isn't a great deal more on offer here until O'Hara returns, with Jarvis looking too expensive and Hunt often benched. 

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Notebook Preview: Sunderland

Looking back at last season

  • One of the best defenses in the first half last season with 9 clean sheets through the first 18 gameweeks. They had just 4 over the next 20 though, serving as a perfect example of why it is important to know when to cut ties with an out of form player.

  • Despite the late season decline, their 6 clean sheets on the road still tied them with Man City for first in the league.

  • Conceded 20 goals in the first half of the season then 36 in the second. Which defense shows up early on for Bruce's men will dictate whether they have any value.

  • Failed to score 12 times, 4th worst in the league. Again, much of this failure came in the second half including 6 zeros in the final 11 gameweeks.

  • Keepers provided good value last year (2nd in P$) after ranking 7th in P90. It looks like Mignolet will get his chance between the sticks to open the season and if the team can return to early season form, he should provide good value again.

  • The defensive unit also provided good value with a ranking of 7th in P90 and 4th in P$. With several options available at 4.5m, there could be equivalent value again this year if Bruce can steady the ship. 

  • The midfield (9th) and forwards (13th) were not so valuable in terms of P$ and Gyan was really the only semi-reliable option. Plenty of new talent and a full season of Sessegnon could quickly change that though.


Predicted Lineup
Mignolet (4.5m), Bardsley (5.0m), Ferdinand (4.5m), Brown (4.5m), Richardson (6.0m), Larsson (6.5m), Gardner (6.0m), Cattermole (5.0m), El-Mohamady (5.5m), Sessegnon (6.5m), Gyan (8.0m)

A few question marks remain here, notably between the sticks, though this question seems to have been postponed as Gordon looks set to miss the start of the season through injury. It isn't clear if, or how, new boys John O'Shea and David Vaughan will fit in or whether Michael Turner or Titus Bramble can hold off the challenge of another new arrival from Old Trafford. Play the sure things like Gyan, Sessegnon and probably Brown for GW1.

Safest Picks
Wes Brown . . . we can assume he was brought here to play regularly, given that he could have ridden the bench and won trophies at Old Trafford . . . would represent decent value if he earns consistent minutes for 4.5m . . . ability to play right back could boost minutes further given a lack of depth at the full back positions . . . unlikely to ever contribute much outside of clean sheets . . . probably not the kind of player to keep for a sustained period but a safe play for a short loan spell when the fixtures work out

Asamoah Gyan . . . enjoyed a great debut season in England with excellent xG (17), xA (9) and xP (198) totals . . . tremendous at home (6.1 PPG) and solid on the road (4.5 PPG) making him startable every week . . . said to enjoy playing with Sessegnon though the stats don't necessarily back this up in fantasy points (4.0 PPG) albeit in a very small sample size . . . earned just 10 bonus points last season (less than Wellbeck and Malbranque) so can only gain under the new system . . . looks almost guaranteed to be a top-15 forward and could easily break into the top 10

Seb Larsson . . . delivered consistent fantasy value for 3 seasons though his ceiling could well be higher . . . xG (5), xA (7) and xP (140) show how Larsson can contribute across a number of categories and he wasn't overly reliant on bonus points (9) so shouldn't suffer under the new system too much . . . decent competition for places may limit his minutes if he struggles to find his feet early on . . . possibly overpriced at 6.5m but makes a nice solid option if others in his price range flatter to deceive.

Upside Plays
Stephane Sessegnon . . . took a while to settle into the side but finished the season as strong as anyone with 3 goals, 2 assists and 32 points over the final 5 gameweeks . . . operates in a similar position to Van der Vaart at Spurs and lack of front line depth should ensure he registers plenty of minutes in advanced positions . . . Steve Bruce is clearly enamoured which should buy him patience in case he does start to lag later in the season . . . despite limited playing time, still managed to rack up decent xG (9), xA (6) and xP (147) numbers which could all improve this year . . . has the potential to become a must own player given his relatively low price tag and advanced deployment

No Thanks
Craig Gardner . . . heading into last season Gardner had 6 goals in his career then added 8 last term . . . likely to take a deeper role with more talent around him and even half of last season's goals should be considered a win . . . zero assists for the year and only 5 bonus points suggest that he offers little outside of those goals, which makes him useless if they dry up . . . pay the extra 0.5m for Sessegnon

Phil Bardsley . . . great value last season, representing the best P$ among all defenders who played over 2500 minutes . . . xP of 149 shows he has a decent ceiling . . . chipped in with 3 goals but little in history suggests these are sustainable (even if one was pretty good) . . . at 0.5m more than his teammates and no sustained history of offensive points scoring, he represents exactly the kind of player I have previously warned against . . . work out who will start along the back four and save your 0.5m to spend elsewhere.

Kieran Richardson . . . with Onuoha gone the depth at full back is very shallow which could regularly push Richardson back into the left back position . . . when playing in his preferred position in midfield he can offer decent value (xP 134) but with Larsson, Vaughan, El-Mohamady and Sessegnon all competing for time, he may be limited to a more defensive role

Fixtures
@Liv, New, @Swa, Che, Sto, @Nor, WB, @Ars

The home games look decent from a defensive view with Newcastle (0.79 GPG) and Stoke (0.79 GPG) both struggling to score away from home last year. Chelsea (1.58 GPG) and West Brom (1.37 GPG) were better and will make clean sheets harder to come by. On the road (where Sunderland excelled last year) they get three teams who average over a 1.6 GPG along with Swansea who were fairly useful themselves in the Championship (1.78 GPG). With uncertainty about who will start and whether it will be the team of the first or second half, it seems advisable to hold off on this group out of the gates, perhaps waiting as long as GW12 to invest when the fixtures take a turn for the better.

Offensively Sunderland's start is tricker than it looks as Liverpool and Chelsea concede less than 1.1 GPG while Swansea could surprise having conceded just 11 goals at home last year. From week 5 onwards the fixtures open up a bit and the likes of Gyan and Sessegnon could represent really good value from there until the halfway point.

Final Thoughts
If Bruce settles on a lineup early in the season then there is plenty of fantasy value to be had from this team. Gyan and Sessegnon could easily be the best players in their respective price brackets while a return to the form shown at the start of last season would make a combination of Brown, Ferdinand, Turner and Bramble look valuable too.

The fixtures scare me off a touch and given the uncertainty across the back line you might want to steer clear of the defense for now. Offensively I think Gyan and Sessesgnon are startable against anyone though if nothing else it would make sense to start someone else in week one then bring either of these guys in after the tricky trip to Anfield.

All the other team previews can be found here and I encourage you to post any comments or questions below or at @plfantasy. I will be answering all these questions tonight so if you've previously asked a question on another post, do go back and check for any advice I can give.