P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG%Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.
We discussed some transfer targets yesterday so take a quick look over there if you're still unsure on who you want to bring in this week. A couple of readers noted that I neglected to mention the upcoming FA Cup final, which is a fair point, though it's something which doesn't have a huge impact on the week. If you own Liverpool or Chelsea players you're going to play them regardless, on the assumption that they will get at least 90 minutes, and I'm not sure any of them are great transfer targets anyway, with perhaps the exception of Mata who I highlighted in yesterday's piece. The cup final probably puts a slight knock against him but I'd still take what is likely going to be full game against QPR at home and then a chance at decent minutes against Newcastle (a must win game, by the way) than stick with someone with just a single game.
I've talked about Cisse at length over the past couple of weeks so I won't dwell on it again here. The situation is fairly simple: he can't continue to score goals at his current rate, based on the number of chances he is getting, but when the regression comes is less clear. I understand the idea behind riding a hot streak, even if I'm not sure it's rooted in fact, and without too many other great options this, he makes a very solid play. Just be sure to understand the risks too.
Without the recent injury and possible dressing room unrest, I would have comfortably handed Adebayor the arm band this week but now the situation is a tricky one for fantasy managers. If he's healthy I think he plays as Redknapp can't afford to let egos get in the way of their chase for Champions League football. That, of course, is a big 'if' with Physio Room suggesting he will be fit, while the pl.com officials are less clear giving him only a 50% chance. I think you have to go with Cisse over him unless we get clearer evidence that he faces Blackburn on Sunday, though I still like Adebayor over some of the more established captain picks like Rooney, Van Persie or Aguero, providing that is, we don't get any more negative news.
For the double gameweekers you should probably put more emphasis on the xPct column as this is only data which accounts for the extra expected goals scored by a player's team. That leads you to players like Gareth Bale, Frank Lampard and, I suppose, Jermaine Defoe though I wouldn't touch the latter given the uncertainty around who'll play up top for Spurs. I would look at Lampard if was playing my wildcard or had two free transfers to spare but otherwise he still doesn't represent great upside for his price tag. I like Bale more than the stats given his excellent underlying numbers (not reflected in the formula) and probably like him the most among midfielders this week.
While Rooney has enjoyed success in the Manchester derby before, the odds aren't in his favor and I wouldn't consider him a captain pick this week. Of the non-double gameweekers I would likely look towards Van Persie, despite his blip in production of late, though again he doesn't look like an outstanding play. A few managers have floated the idea of ditching Rooney or van Persie in favour of one of the double gameweekers this week, but take quick look at the upcoming rankings before doing so:
Cisse comes out on top over the remaining three gameweeks but van Persie is tied for the final two gameweeks, which when you consider the regression we are suggesting Cisse is due, suggests that bailing on the Dutchman for the Newcastle hit-man is premature. If you believe van Persie has really taken a step back and Cisse can out shoot Leo Messi, make the move, but if you believe in the regression argument then van Persie remains the better option for GW37 and 38 and thus some caution should be exercised.
As for Rooney, that is a close call as he faces a tough game in GW38 which dampens our expectations a bit. Statistically the pick is therefore Cisse, though some realism has to be baked into our expectations and the chance of a Sunderland side with nothing to play for keeping United out if they need a win to clinch the title looks slim.
I know some readers think I am too conservative with this kind of move, and honestly, my approach will almost certainly prevent you from winning the whole pl.com game (to do you need to take gambles and be first to market numerous times). If however, you're happy to go with a somewhat conservative, but rational approach, I am much more comfortable using Cisse as a third forward alongside the elite pair and looking to gain ground on your competition elsewhere in your team (perhaps double down on Everton defenders or nab Juan Mata etc).
Let's wrap this up then before I get further off track. I will make an extra effort to get on to answer reader questions this week as I'm sure the majority of us have bigger issues to deal with, rather than the normal Vorm v Mignolet toss up. For Twitter fans, the @plfantasy handle is now free of other non-fantasy nonsense so if my baseball ramblings have turned anyone off, come on back!
P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG%Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.
It's an interesting choice this week, as for the first time in a while one of the previously 'elite' players (read: Van Persie and Rooney) are not the obvious pick per the stats. I still have some reservations of Cisse as a truly elite forward given the fact he is currently converting shots on target at an incredible rate. Some will argue 'form', others will suggest it's a small sample, and you'll find me largely in the latter camp. For comparison, Cisse is currently converting shots on target at a rate of one goal every 1.5 shots (10 goals on 15 shots). Leo Messi, perhaps the greatest player of all, enjoying one of the best seasons of all time, is converting them at a rate of 2.1 (65 goals on 139 shots). The natural response is that these are different players in different leagues but show me a player who can sustainably convert chances at this rate and I'll listen.
The above should not, however, be read as a pick against Cisse. He's been sensational for Newcastle in his brief time with the club and gets a great fixture this week as Newcastle welcome a Stoke side with little to play for and one that doesn't travel too well at the best of times. With next week's delicious double gameweek coming up, Cisse remains a solid pickup, though he is of course along way past being a differential option. That said, he currently ranks third in FFS captain poll, and that likely doesn't account for the thousands of average players who will likely roll with Van Persie or Rooney again this week.
My plan all along was to bring in Bale and Adebayor for the double gameweek, but I must concede that I am revisiting those plans to consider fitting Cisse in. I'll likely stick with my original plan but the fact I am wavering towards a player who is a textbook regression candidate is a testament to his production.
If you share my reservations, or simply want to play it a bit safer you're probably looking at one of the elite forwards, now once again joined by Aguero after his brief flirtation with mediocrity. City have obviously looked great over the past couple of weeks and Aguero was at the centre of much of their success with 9 shots in those two fixtures. However, before last week, Aguero hadn't scored an away goal since GW9 and is averaging a worrying 4.7 P90 away from Eastlands. His obvious talent and production this year suggest he should always be in contention but I don't think I'm ready to go there based purely on two weeks' data and a good looking fixture. Chances are if you read this blog you probably don't own Aguero and thus the future fixture list also becomes an issue, with next week's Manchester derby looming large (not to mention a tricky trip to St James' Park). I see the logic here but I don't see enough to warrant the obvious downside.
So that leaves Rooney and Van Persie as the obvious picks and both look like solid plays for the week, even if the upside is possibly a bit limited compared to prior weeks. On first glance, Van Persie has taken a small step back these past few weeks but just a single goal (from the spot) in the past six gameweeks. However, over that period he still leads the league in total shots (19) and his 11 efforts on target can only be bested by Cisse (12). Without digging into a deeper analysis of the type of shots he's taking (perhaps he's forcing it a bit), it's fairly uncontroversial to suggest that his conversion rate picks up again at some point so if he can continue to get into good positions, the goals should return. Chelsea are a good defensive team which obviously hurts Van Persie this week, though you do wonder how much attention will still be on the upcoming trip to Camp Nou on Tuesday.
Rooney didn't look great last week but still escaped with a couple of goals (one from the spot) and an inexplicable three bonus points (that so-called change in the system was a total waste of time). He still managed to get six shots off, and his data over the past 6 gameweeks suggests a player who continues to be dangerous every week. Everton have quietly enjoyed an excellent season and this fixture is actually pretty comparable with Arsenal welcoming Chelsea (Everton concede 1.2 versus Chelsea's 1.1 away from home). Rooney has been great at home and United obviously need a big performance here with City coming up next week (if that means anything). I don't put much stock in the 'former team' narrative (that's one to investigate over the off season) but considering everything else makes Rooney a very good pick again this week.
The other two names high on the list are a pair of midfielders who've been fantasy gold this year. Dempsey and Sigurdsson have both been generally great but both have fairly strong home/away splits with Dempsey dominating at home and Sigurdsson shining on the road. Both players have managed 10 shots on goal over the past 6 gameweeks, though Sigurdsson enjoys a substantial advantage in terms of assist potential with 12 key passes versus Dempsey's 5. Bolton aren't showing any dramatic improvements as the season winds down and are still susceptible to big home defeats against quality opposition. Sigurdsson is still only held by 7% of managers making him the best differential play of the week if you need to do something different.
Edit: A couple of readers pointed out that Carlos Tevez deserves some attention here, and they're absolutely right. His four goals and two assists in just a handful of minutes obviously represents an outstanding return, and his Premier League pedigree shows there is reason to believe he can simply slot back into the first team and pickup where he left of last year - as one of the best players in the league. As you may have gathered though, there is a 'but' coming.
In his two starts in GW33-34 he managed six total shots, four of which hit the target. All four of those shots were converted into goals. Yes, he's a potentially elite player, and yes, he has a good scoring track record in the Premier League, but as we noted above, that kind of conversion rate is just not sustainable. Neither West Brom away from home, nor Norwich at home have particularly good defenses so it isn't a given that Tevez will even get as many chances going forward to convert. Granted, he likely will this week, but then City face the Champions-elect and a tough trip to St James Park, essentially making Tevez a one week gamble (not to say he can't produce in the other games too, just that the odds won't be stacked in his favour). I issued a warning regarding small sample sizes for Cisse, who now has nine appearances under his belt, so you can imagine my hesitation to jump on a player who was an afterthought just a couple of weeks and has performed well in two games against mediocre opposition.
Tevez's strongest asset is his low ownership numbers (3%) and to get such upside from a player held by so few is indeed rare. I can certainly see a scenario where he is successful this week, but balancing that out against no double gameweek in GW36, tough games in GW36 and 37, a small chance that he doesn't even start this week and all the off-field drama that has affected him all season, I just don't see a 12m risk unless you absolutely need to gain 10s of points on your opponents immediately and they have the Rooney, van Persie and Cisse market cornered. It's a tough choice to make this week and the logic behind Cisse looks solid. That said, I will likely stick with Van Persie who may be abandoned by a handful of managers following his "poor form" of late.
