Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 4

Arsenal
Szczesny, Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Coquelin, Arteta, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, Podolski, Gervinho
Subs: Mannone, Koscielny, Andre Santos, Giroud, Walcott, Ramsey, Arshavin

We have a promising situation at the back here as while the sun soon looks ready to set on Jenkinson's run in the side (Sagna is supposed to be back in a week or two), Mertesacker seems have established himself ahead of Koscielny and therefore provides another budget way to gain access to this useful and improving defense.

During the game I tweeted that Arsenal might be the best fantasy team around as they have talent without overwhelming depth to cloud the team selection each week, but in hindsight I may have been too hasty. In Walcott and Giroud they have two subs here who are good enough to play every week, not to mention the injured Diaby/Wilshere or the likes of Ramsey and Rosicky who can do a job when needed. Over the course of the season, I'd be confident that Cazorla, Podolski and probably Giroud will play most games while Gervinho could force his way into that list given his ability to play multiple positions in this side. I find it hard to put Giroud ahead of Podolski given his higher price tag and Podolski's impressive start but Gervinho could have some intrigue if he can get significant minutes.

Aston Villa
Guzan, Lowton, Clark, Vlaar, Lichaj, Holman, El Ahmadi, Ireland, Bannan, Weimann, Bent
Subs: Given, N'Zogbia, Agbonlahor, Westwood, Benteke, Bowery, Bennett.

An unchanged side here for Lambert which could start to make a couple of these budget players ownable. Bannan and El Ahmadi have both now played the majority of minutes this season while costing less than 5.0m. Bannan has some useful underlying stats and might be worth a closer look for those looking for a cheap, differential 5th midfielder.

The defense looks decent and Guzan will be a nice addition to the 4.5m rotation options if he keeps this job long term over Given. With a clean sheet here the chances of that are increasing by the week. Lowton and Clark also look like they are entrenched in the side and thus provide decent value for just 4.5m.

Chelsea
Cech, Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Cole, Mikel, Lampard, Ramires, Hazard, Bertrand, Torres
Subs: Turnbull, Romeu, Oscar, Moses, Sturridge, Cahill, Azpilicueta.

I really don't know what to make of this side. The back line looks pretty settled at least, with Terry immediately regaining his place at the expense of Cahill. At 6.5m+ I'm not sure anyone from the group represents outstanding value but they're definitely one of the league's better defensive teams and plugging in a 6.5m Cole will be a good solid addition to any team. Azpilicueta and Cahill's presence on the bench does remind us however that there's still scope for changes here.

This midfield is a total mess with only Mikel, Hazard and Mata (when fit) the only players even close to being guaranteed of a place in the side. Given the deep deployment of Mata which has been discussed ad nauseum, we can probably conclude that Hazard is the only option here, unless you want to throw Mikel in as your 5th midfielder (which isn't a terrible idea). I do worry that with Oscar, Marin and Moses sniffing around, Hazard is going to get rotated during the upcoming busy period but the same can probably be said for all the elite midfielders so I wouldn't necessarily let that put me off owning him.

Torres is very much ownable though whether he deserves his price tag is another issue. In a vacuum, he doesn't in my eyes but if the fixtures are right he can still be a useful player.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Ryan Bertrand got another start here taking his season total to three from four. He was very unlucky to miss out on the clean sheet (subbed after 57 minutes) but seems to have Di Matteo's confidence and is therefore intriguing for just 4.5m. If you are totally satisfied with your back line and have four other players who can relied upon to start every week, there is certainly scope for adding Bertrand and just accept the fact that he will be benched more often that premium players and may be liable to the odd one point sub-appearance.

Fulham
Schwarzer, Riether, Hughes, Hangeland, Riise, Duff, Sidwell, Baird, Kacaniklic, Berbatov, Rodallega.
Subs: Stockdale, Kelly, Kasami, Karagounis, Briggs, Trotta, Smith

Let's see how many words I can get through with mentioning a certain Bulgarian forward. This defense looks solid and I like old faithful (Aaron Hughes) as a solid 4.5m option. I had thought that this midfield was a fantasy wasteland after the best two players walked at the transfer deadline but Kacaniklic added 2 assists this week and his 4.6m price tag stands out. He's a player who I'll touch on more in a new weekly piece I'm planning to look at the players who enjoyed success in a given week to try and work out if it's sustainable or an aberration.

Another player to have success here was the great Dimitar Berbatov (there we go, second paragraph!). Again, without wishing to tread on the toes of the new column, Berbatov had very impressive numbers this week and should be close to everyone's transfer target list. Needless to say he should now be a fixture in this side barring injury.

Liverpool
Reina, Kelly, Skrtel, Agger, Johnson, Gerrard, Allen, Shelvey, Borini, Suarez, Sterling. 
Subs: Jones, Jose Enrique, Sahin, Assaidi, Henderson, Downing, Carragher.

I'm still surprised to see Jose Enrique out of the side with Johnson played at left back and Kelly slotted in on the right. This isn't a bad defensive team and they only gave up one shot inside the box this week so if Kelly sticks around he'll be worth looking at for 5.5m. At 6.0m though this group looks tough to justify.

Of all the players in this team, not many would have targeted Raheem Sterling to open the season and after one or two gameweeks I still had my suspicions his run in the would be short lived. Well, consider me convinced. He took up some excellent positions this week again and between him and Borini you have to say that the latter would be more likely to be dropped if, and when Assaidi slides into the side (at least in the short term). I don't want to get carried away with Sterling as he's on 17 and thus expecting 20+ appearances seems like a stretch. That said, right now he is offering outstanding value off the bench so if you are wildcarding or have a spare transfer to use on your 5th midfielder, he looks like the perfect addition to your squad. He looks startable in five of the next eight games too.

Not much to say on Suarez here. He's set in this lineup and should be right up there with anyone in minutes played and will get his goals over the season. My concern is that (a) Liverpool don't look like they'll score a bucket load of goals and thus his huge gameweeks and assist totals look limited and (b) at  9.4m he needs to come close to Tevez and significantly top Podolski which I just don't see him doing.

Man City
Hart, Maicon, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Nasri, Toure, Javi Garcia, Sinclair, Balotelli, Tevez
Subs: Wright, Dzeko, Kolarov, Rodwell, Barry, Silva, Toure

Right, where do we start? Maicon came in here for Zabaleta who had a slight hamstring strain and thus restarts the confusion along this back line. Given their play so far I am very close to simply giving up on this defense until they can show some consistency in both their play and their starting lineup. They still lead the league in shots conceded inside the box (5.25 per game) so I have no doubt this team will rebound, it's just a case of when and whether you want to wait for it. The next two don't look easy but after that the fixtures really open up so I personally will stick with Zabaleta for now but would understand those wanting to cut and run.

I am genuinely shocked by the use (or lack thereof) of David Silva this year as coming into the season I would have rated him as one of, if not the best creative midfielder in the league. Mancini obviously has different ideas with the Spaniard getting just two starts and 183 minutes through four gameweeks. The strange part is that in those minutes he's been just as effective as last season (at least on the stat sheet) racking up 9 chances created which gives him one every 21 minutes, bettered only by Cazorla among those with more than a handful of minutes. His 6 shots (2 on target) would also place fairly well in the charts if he had maintained that level over four games. So what do we do now? City's fixture list is pretty outstanding after the next couple of so-so games and Silva has to be used more (right?). Selling him now inevitably means jumping on the Hazard, Yaya or Cazorla bandwagons and I'm not sure that's the best way to dig yourself out of a hole. Personally, I would sell him for Cazorla but I might hold him over the other two (indeed, I probably will).

Man Utd
Lindegaard, Da Silva, Ferdinand, Vidic, Buttner, Nani, Scholes, Carrick, Giggs, Hernandez, Welbeck
Subs: De Gea, Evans, Valencia, van Persie, Cleverley, Powell, Kagawa

The two Manchester teams seen intent of running through my column inches as United had even more drama than City this week. De Gea (12%), Evra (9%), Kagawa (17%), Valencia (5%) and of course van Persie (32%) are all widely held yet didn't feature here for a number of reasons as Ferguson's rotation (partly forced upon him) went into overdrive. The fact that they won comfortably is both a testament to their depth but also a warning to fantasy managers who face the prospect of more rotation in the future.

De Gea will probably get another chance in this side at some point but I've given up on him and suggest he should be sold unless we get concrete indications that he's back in the first team. Having backed him in the preseason I am officially withdrawing my support and will never again go against my tried and trusted rotation system. I'll try and get a post up this week for the best duos currently available. The rest of the defense is starting to settle down and when Evra returns it should be fairly consistent. Rafael therefore remains an excellent option here.

The midfield is a total quagmire and even when Kagawa is fully fit it looks like it's going to be tough to commit to any one player (especially with Rooney back in training). No one really caught my eye during the game but Nani did have a good statistical effort (4 chances created, 5 shots, 0 on target) and might still be the best option in the unit. That said, his price tag is high given the uncertainty surrounding his place in the side so it'd be a brave owner who picks him up.

Despite the goal and price tag, I wouldn't touch Hernandez and only van Persie looks like an option from this front line (and even then I'm still terrified by his comparatively high price tag).

Norwich
Ruddy, R Martin, Barnett, Bassong, Garrido, Snodgrass, Howson, Johnson, Surman, Holt, Jackson
Subs: Rudd, Turner, Hoolahan, Fox, Morison, Tierney, Kane

This side was practically unchanged from last time out with only Pilkington missing out here with a hamstring injury. I'd be surprised if Hoolahan didn't more minutes in the future but generally this lineup looks pretty settled and can be relied upon for budget options.

QPR
Julio Cesar, Bosingwa, Ferdinand, Nelsen, Da Silva, Wright-Phillips, Granero, Faurlin, Park, Johnson, Zamora
Subs: Green, Cisse, Taarabt, Mackie, Onuoha, Dyer, Hoilett

Amazingly, Hughes named an unchanged side here which suggests the likes of Cisse and Taarabt are indeed going to be long term bench options. With the clean sheet this week, together with Hughes' solid defensive record in the past, I would be remiss if I didn't at least quickly mention the defensive options available here. I thought Nelsen would play when he was signed (history with Hughes and why would he leave Spurs to ride the bench somewhere else?) but he didn't immediately break into the side so was somewhat forgotten about. However, he's now played in back to back fixtures and at 3.9m could be a nice 5th defender to spot start when the fixture is right.

Of the attacking options, Park is putting up some impressive underlying numbers and could probably be thrown in that ~6.0m mix with the likes of Nolan, Dyer and Morrison. No one else seems to have both the upside and performances to date to pique our interest at this time.

Reading
McCarthy, Gunter, Pearce, Gorkss, Harte, McCleary, Leigertwood, Karacan, Guthrie, McAnuff, Pogrebnyak
Subs: Taylor, Shorey, Mariappa, Le Fondre, Hunt, Robson-Kanu, Cummings

We've got decent predictability in this lineup but not a whole lot to get excited about. Based on their talent and price tag alone Guthrie and Progrebnyak remain ownable as third-sub type options though even their stars are waning given their so-so stats (Guthrie's 4 chances created make him viable . . . just). This entire midfield has managed just two shots on target (both ended up being goals) while the front line isn't much better with five. Sorry guys, not much to see here.

Southampton
K Davis, Clyne, Hooiveld, Fonte, Fox, Puncheon, Ward-Prowse, Schneiderlin, S Davis, Lallana, Lambert
Subs: Gazzaniga, Yoshida, Rodriguez, Ramirez, Richardson, Mayuka, Chaplow

Nigel Adkins named an unchanged side here which is good news for forecasting the lineup each week, but bad news in that this team doesn't appear to have much hope of turning things round on the defensive side of the ball, though strong reinforcements are available up front (more on that in a second). In Southampton's defense they've played arguably the best three teams in the league so far, two of which were away from home. Over their four games they've given up 14 goals and have the dubious honour of leading the league in both shots conceded inside the box and 'big chances' surrendered.  If you're looking for positives, they only gave up seven shots inside the box against Wigan, the weakest of their opponents to date by a distance so there is at least hope that they might have some success in the future. For now though, I am very much not buying into this unit.

The front line has been settled to date but you have to think that Rodriguez and particularly Ramirez will slide into this side sooner rather than later. I love the ambition in bringing flair players into this side with Ramirez in particular representing thinking outside the standard promoted team blueprint (buy overpriced borderline Premier League players with 'experience'), but unless they start showing something soon, the decision to not invest at the back will look foolish. For fantasy purposes, Lambert remains a good option in that suddenly crowded 6.0-8.0m range, especially given the way the Saints' fixtures look to get substantially easier over the coming weeks. None of the midfield group have really separated themselves from the pack as yet, though Puncheon and Lallana have both shown enough to suggest they warrant monitoring. At 4.4m Puncheon would make more sense, but there is likely rotation coming here when Ramirez is ready to go so I'd stay away for now until this situation clears up (at 6.0m Ramirez is too pricey to simply take a flyer on).

Stoke
Begovic, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Walters, Whelan, Nzonzi, Adam, Kightly, Crouch
Subs: Sorensen, Cameron, Owen, Whitehead, Upson, Etherington, Jerome

As expected, the new arrivals N'Zonzi and Adam slid right into this first eleven and instantly give Stoke a bit more strength in the middle of the field. Given Adam's inflated price and N'Zonzi's defensive mentality I'm not sure either are ownable but I like the effect they have on two other fantasy options: Walters and Crouch. Neither of those players set the pulse racing or have dominant stats for the season to date, but both do a good solid job for the price tag and can be relied upon for decent returns when the fixtures fall nicely. This defense remains a decent option with a well settled back five.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Gardner, Cuellar, O'Shea, Rose, Larsson, Colback, Cattermole, McClean, Sessegnon, Fletcher
Subs: Westwood, Campbell, Kilgallon, Ji, Meyler, Bramble, Saha

Another team that is starting to look predictable and one which still contains several viable options. As good as a finisher as Fletcher is, I am a touch concerned by the lack of chances he is receiving. Through two games he now only has three shots total, which of course he has converted into three goals. That's great, but it won't continue, and while we can rely on him to convert at a rate above league average, the regression monster will catch him soon unless Sunderland start creating more chances. Larsson and Sessegnon created just one chance between them this week and completed just 11 passes in the final third. McClean picked up some of the slack with three chances created but he too was limited in the final third for long periods of the game. I think they'll be fine long term, but this is the kind of team we need to keep an eye on and make sure this talented lineup is getting in the right positions rather than just assume the likes of Sessegnon will tick along like he did last season.

The back line was looking settled but Cuellar limped off at half time and it isn't clear how long he'll be out. We need to check this again early in the week as Cuellar had given good value and would be sorely missed as a 4.5m option.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Tate, Williams, Davies, Britton, de Guzman, Michu, Dyer, Routledge, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Hernandez, Shechter, Moore, Ki, Agustien, Richards

A disappointing outing here for Swansea and the tiniest of alarms could well be going off having surrendered four goals in two games in a couple of fixtures they were fancied in. In fairness of course they were missing N Taylor (injured) and Chico (suspended) so we shouldn't be too concerned just yet.  Davies got the start at left back and could be outstanding value for just 4.0m but caution should be exercised as we still aren't sure how Tiendalli fits in here. If you have the cash it is safer to go with Williams or Rangel for now then switch to whichever left back wins that job when it becomes clear.

The midfield looks set for now but one would expect Hernandez to break into the first team in the next few gameweeks, probably at the expense of Routledge, though Dyer's increased risk of rotation should also be accounted for by his numerous owners. Michu and Graham remain good options though as with the Sunderland options above, be sure to continually evaluate these mid-range options to make sure they're still offering the same value they did when you bought them.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Vertonghen, Gallas, Naughton, Lennon, Sigurdsson, Sandro, Dembele, Bale, Defoe
Subs: Lloris, Dempsey, Huddlestone, Adebayor, Dawson, Townsend, Caulker

With Assou-Ekotto out for a month, Naughton came in here and at 4.4m represents a nice sneaky pickup for anyone wildcarding this week, or those with a spare transfer able to be burned on a player who is only a short term option. With home games against QPR and Villa though, Naughton looks about as good as it gets for the 4.5m bracket.

As for the midfield situation; it's still about as clear as mud. The only change this week was the expected switch of Dembele in for Livermore but Dempsey (#2) still looms large on the sidelines and it remains unclear how he fits into this side long term. The American came on for Bale (#11) with the game already sewn up and essentially played the same role, though of course with less inclination to push out to the left wing. I speculated that Dempsey might occupy a similar role to this, but on the right side, at the expense of Lennon (#7) but on this display that looks less likely. With Bale allowed to drift inside at will, this team might get overly narrow without Lennon's presence and thus Dempsey might be limited to rotating minutes with Sigurdsson plus some time as a second forward or Bale/Lennon replacement when the situation calls for it. Right now I'm not concerned about Bale's minutes but there are question marks over Sigurdsson and Lennon who need to be monitored while Dempsey is simply unownable.

Up top Defoe looked good again, though I am still hesitant to take a 'hold' position off him with Adebayor (almost unarguably a better overall player) lurking on the bench. This Spurs team is stacked with talent and they looked good this week but until we see some consistency in the lineup or some concrete signs from Villas-Boas I am hesitant to back anyone not named Bale.

West Brom
Foster, Jones, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell, Mulumbu, Yacob, Odemwingie, Morrison, Fortune, Long
Subs: Myhill, Rosenberg, Brunt, Dorrans, Lukaku, Gera, Dawson

Odemwingie came in here and will now depart with suspension pending. No matter how much remorse he shows, you have to wonder if his sending off will send him tumbling down the depth chart and open the way for Lukaku and Long to get more guaranteed minutes. Lukaku has tremendous stats in the limited time he's been given (seven shots, three on target in just 107 minutes) and could be a really interesting prospect if he can force his way into the first team. The problem is that Clarke seems committed to the 4-2-3-1 with Long favored at its apex so for now we have to wait on Lukaku.

The rest of the key players in this side look to be fairly entrenched and this defense is generally okay while Morrison provides some value as a budget midfielder.

West Ham
Jaaskelainen, Demel, Reid, Collins, O'Brien, Diame, Noble, Vaz Te, Nolan, Taylor, Cole
Subs: Henderson, McCartney, Tomkins, Jarvis, Maiga, Benayoun, Diarra

This defense didn't really register on my radar in the preseason but they've equipped themselves really well through the first four weeks of the season. Collins, Demel and Reid all look like they are locked into the first team with Demel providing the best value given his low price tag of 4.1m. Two notes of caution though. Firstly, the Hammers have faced three favorable opponents and were handily beaten against a good Swansea side. Second, they have surrendered 38 shots inside the box (5th worst) which has historically correlated well to total goals conceded. The combination of these factors could well see this side regress in the coming weeks. That said, with Demel coming in at 4.1m I couldn't care less how West Ham perform every week, so long as they capitalise against the weaker sides which they have done perfectly so far this year. With Sunderland (H), QPR (A), Southampton (H), Wigan (A) and Stoke (H) all coming up in the next eight gameweeks, there's still a tonne of value to be found here. Jaaskelainen also looks like a very good rotation 'keeper if you can find a match to fill in the blanks of the aforementioned fixtures (I'll discuss that in a future post, hopefully this week).

We highlighted Vaz Te this week over at Fantasy Football Scout and of course he followed it up with a quiet, one shot, one chance created day. I still like the former Bolton man though and it's worth noting that while Cole and Maiga split time, Vaz Te was kept on the field for almost the whole game. This front line with get a bit crowded when Caroll returns but for now I don't see too much to worry about.

The midfield is already congested with Jarvis missing out this week. He has potential at 6.0m but as a fourth midfielder type, one of the keys I look for is reliability as they can be called into action when your stars are injured/rested and thus I don't see Jarvis as a reasonable option at the moment.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Boyce, Caldwell, Ramis, Figueroa, Maloney, McCarthy, McArthur, Beausejour, Kone, Di Santo
Subs: Pollitt, Jones, Crusat, Watson, Gomez, Boselli, Miyaichi

An unchanged side here for Martinez and with limited options on the bench I see this as regularly being the case. Despite his advanced deployment I can't get behind the Boyce boosters as while he might accrue the odd assist, the Wigan side is simply not equipped to rack up significant clean sheets. I still like the front trio of Di Santo, Kone and Maloney and they'll have better days than this one in the future.

Gameweek 4 Reader Questions

Kevin Tan
Which of the 5.0m def would u choose for nxt 6 GWs? Boyce, McAuley, Ridgewell or S Taylor?

For 5.0m we have access to a surprising number of teams with AVL, FUL, NEW, NOR, QPR, RDG, STK, SOU, SUN, SWA, WIG, WBA, WHM all having several options available in your price range plus a couple of riskier prospects from the 'big name' teams including Jenkinson and Gallas. I want to avoid rewriting everything we know after just three weeks so let's start with the three teams I would have backed from this group in the preseason: SWA, SUN and STK. SWA have been very good value to date and remain in contention for sure. SUN had an excellent result against ARS but then looked so-so against SWA but I'd say they remain an option, while STK look sufficiently unpredictable to give me some doubts about them (though I'm not abandoning them yet). Of the teams to impress so far I'd throw in WHM and WBA which gives us four teams to focus on.

Of that group, WHM do the worst in the predicted goals table, though part of that is because of their own poor forecast numbers which haven't yet been sufficiently skewed based on three weeks of data. Over the next 6 gameweeks you're only going to have to bench SUN, SWA and WBA players once (they all play City)  and so I guess it comes down to how much upside you can get for 0.5m. Cuellar is the only player here costing 4.5m and so he looks particularly attractive. I am a bit concerned about SWA given the absence of Taylor (long term) and Chico (suspension) which might push me towards WBA (from that team I'd give the nod to Ridgewell based on chances created). Long term I still like SWA here but if you're purely looking at the next 6, WBA look like a better mix of safety/upside. To save money, Cuellar looks almost as good as the others.

Of the other two teams you touch on - WIG and NEW - I like NEW more as a long term option as with a couple of injuries and one of their home games against MUN, you're going to struggle to even play them in half of the next 7 games. As for WIG, I could be talked into Figueroa at 4.5m but Boyce seems overhyped at 5.0m based on his wing back role. I like Wigan quite a bit going forward but I'm yet to be convinced by them at the back and a clean sheet against Southampton isn't getting me there just yet.

Reddy
I've played my wildcard this week... any suggestions for my squad?

1) Foster (Jaaskelainen)
Baines, Jenkinson, McAuley (Demel, Davies)
Hazard Cazorla Ben Arfa Michu (Guthrie)
Torres Tevez Fletcher
1.7m remaining

Or
2) Foster (Jaaskelainen)
Baines, Jenkinson, McAuley (Demel, Davies)
Hazard, Cazorla, Ben Arfa, Michu, Morrison
Torres Tevez Lambert
1.1m remaining

Before getting to the differences, let's just quickly touch on the team as a whole. On paper it clearly looks good though you do have some risk built into that back line with the selection of both Jenkinson and Davies. I like both players a lot in theory but Jenkinson will make way for Sagna shortly while Davies looks very risky now Swansea have brought in Tiendalli to compete at left back. If you're sure you're settled on the rest of your team it's okay to carry these players and move them on in a few weeks but be careful not to plan too many transfers into the future as an injury or two can quickly leave your squad looking thin.

The other issue, and it's a tough one to avoid, is lack of differentiation. Anyone who follows the forums over at Fantasy Football Scout will be aware that many of the regular posters are getting upset about "cookie cutter" teams over the past week or so. While I think that's unfair (if you don't want to rate someone's team - don't!), it does illustrate the growing trend that many teams are starting to look a bit the same. With Torres, Tevez, Hazard, Michu, Baines and Jenkinson, you have six players whose ownership is into double digits and often significantly so. Now, the reason I wouldn't necessarily criticise this decision is that all those players look like decent investments. Personally I wouldn't pay a premium for Baines over his teammates not am I yet convinced that Torres is "back" but I understand the logic behind both pickups.

If I was wildcarding this week I would try and limit myself to three of the expensive widely held options (Tevez, van Persie, Torres, Hazard, Yaya, Michu, Kagawa, Allen) and you only have four so let's not overreact here. I love the addition of Cazorla and Fletcher in option one, while Ben Arfa is a player I like to continue to have success even if some regression is inevitable. Neither of that pair are true differentiators but at ~10% ownershup they at least allow you to make up ground on some managers.

Overall, whether you decide to stick with the Michu or Hazard group or go in a riskier direction depends on how much risk you are willing to take on board. Every time you bet against Tevez for example, 50% of managers pull away from you which is hard to take (of course, you pull away from 50% when he fails). That means you need to have fairly strong convictions about who you pick instead of these widely owned players if you don't plan to grab them. Of the widely held options I'd say at this point Tevez is almost impossible to pass on, but the others - even Hazard - should not be considered must owns. That said, in Hazard's place I would probably only put Cazorla who you have anyway.

So, of the two options I like the first better (basically because of Fletcher) but I would urge you to take another look at players like Bale, Silva or Ba and consider if you like any of them enough to justify not grabbing that widely owned group.

Mojo4sale
I noticed how you waxed lyrical about Fletcher. to sum it up, you showed he had a 1/3 ratio.
But the stats for R Lambert would indicate a 1 in 2 chance of scoring. Although Southampton are probably destined for relegation, would you not regard him the more potent striker? especially at his lesser cost of 6 million?

I think you are referencing the 'window shopping' piece, in which case, there's a slight miscommunication here. The average conversion rate of shots on goal across the whole league is 33% and not players perform above that with any consistency. I certainly don't expect Fletcher's 100% record to continue for long but he's shown (in the Premier League) that he can out perform the average consistently and thus I'm more willing to buy into his high goal totals than I would if, say, Luis Suarez scored 2 in 2 given that his historic rate of 21% is well below the league average.

As for Lambert, I like him as a prospect quite a bit but two things hold me back from being all in. First, shots are going to be harder to come by, and while he's done well with his shots to date (6 total, 5 on target, 2 goals), I don't have any reliable data for how he will perform at the top level. Which brings us to the second issue: his price tag. There's a good pool of talent in the 5.5m-7.0m range and right now, especially given the rotation concerns of gameweek one, I'm struggling to put him at the top.

Mathias Johansson
I'm thinking about your first graph [from the shots inside the box piece], if you remove the top teams (MCI, MUN, ARS, TOT, CHE and LIV for measure) I would say you would get a more horizontal tangent.
Does that really tell us anything valuable or one might argue that outside the top teams it's more of a coinflip how the season turns out. It sounds a bit simplistic to my taste but much of that tangents inclination comes from the big teams so probably a measure of truth.

This is a really good point and something I missed. While I'm generally hesitant to just cut a piece of data from our sample, the teams you mention are clearly identifiable as the league's elite and thus there is some value in looking at the 'other' teams. Without replotting the graph and looking at the detailed data I would suggest that there is still a relationship here, but you're right that it could be weaker.

As a general point I try and avoid splitting data up arbitrarily as that forces my views onto it if I'm not careful (for example, are Liverpool and 'elite' team anymore? Newcastle?). But Mathias raises a good issue here and in future analyses I will try and present data league-wide but then also excluding at least the undeniably elite sides (MUN, MCI, ARS and CHE).

Gummi
Am I correct in deducing that City´s numbers, however, are indicative of their quality upfront, as PY team looks the best?

I think so, yes, and Liverpool's 'struggles' can at least in part be attributed to Suarez who is a good player tends to take shots where others would pass, and while being good enough to hit the target, such selfish play can lead to poor contact and thus a lower conversion rate. Ideally we'd get season-on-season data for every team and hopefully see that, for example, City have been consistently excellent for three seasons and thus are more a genuine overachiever than an outlier. This is something I will be working on over the next few weeks.

Pulma
I must add that you do have to consider the quality of the shooter in the box, as this indicator is always likely to stay high for both Liverpool and Arsenal with Suarez and Giroud being depended on for putting the ball in the back of the net.

I agree that the quality of player needs to be accounted for, but it's tough to do so without a database for every player, including how to account for data outside of the Premier League. As I noted above, this is definitely something to look into though. On a side note, which I like him as a player, Suarez's finishing numbers are actually pretty poor, though again, they do need to be taken in context as he takes a lot more shots than most players too, so he's bound to have more shots with bad contact (shooting off balance, long range etc).

Thanks again for all the kind comments guys, they are very much appreciated.

Gameweek 4 Preview

As we're currently mired in the misery of an internationally broken weekend, it seems like a good time to look forward to next week to help those looking to use transfers in the coming days. Note that all the notes in the captain picks are subject to change with any injuries this weekend and will be updated as required after we know if anyone major picked up an injury.

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Captain Picks
Van Persie is quickly becoming the focal point of this early season but there's no controversy about his status this week. The 30% of owners who have scrambled to bring the Dutchman in will be very satisfied to hand him the armband this week and hope for a repeat of last week's hattrick. Though my reservations about his cost have been well discussed I wouldn't contemplate captaining anyone else this week if I owned van Persie.

Van Persie isn't of course a one man team so who else can we expect to have some success this week against Wigan? The Latics played well against Chelsea and Southampton and were a touch unlucky to lose that game in gameweek one (they only surrendered 3 shots on target but lost 2-0). One trend which might start to concern Martinez is that in the last two games they have surrendered a lot of chances to their opponents with a large portion coming from the opponents left channel. United don't have anyone who will naturally expose that space but with Wigan sticking with the 5-3-2 I do wonder if United may opt for Young to play wide this week, though he too does tend to drift in (though not as much as Nani or Welbeck).

Kagawa is my first thought for captain after van Persie but he was underwhelming last week (zero chances created) and has been withdrawn after just over an hour in both of the last two games making his a risky proposition. Kagawa isn't guaranteed a spot in this lineup and having travelled to Japan this week I am worried he might be kept out for what could be regarded as an easy fixture. He's worth monitoring as the week progresses as an immediate replacements isn't obvious (Anderson?) but there's a lot of risk here, particularly given his unproven upside.

Valencia is himself stuck in a rotation battle with Nani, Young and Welbeck but of all the United wide men he seems to be the safest and could expose the Wigan system more than anyone else. At 8.9m I am still scared to own him given Ferguson's penchant for deploying the former Wigan man at right back but if you're already on board this looks like a good week to double down on the Ecuadorian. Though it doesn't necessarily tie that well to assists, his 28 crosses lead the league and his 6 chances created are solid. Limited upside here but his floor is probably the highest of the United midfielders.

Nani is a player I have been higher on than most in previous years and to date he's delivered with excellent goal and assist numbers. I had him atop my United midfield rankings to open the season but I am wavering slightly with the arrival of van Persie. If United want a true wide player they can look to Valencia or Young while Kagawa can be used in a central 'pulling the strings' Xavi-esque position and then they have van Persie or Welbeck who could play in a inside left forward position is so required. This all leaves me a bit more down on Nani, though I'm not ready to jump ship yet. Like Valencia, I wouldn't personally own him and he's probably an even riskier prospect but if he's your only United midfielder he deserves a thought.

Santi Cazorla has been simply outstanding through three games to a point where I might suggest he's been even more impressive than Hazard (who readers will clearly know I love). If you have any faith at all in the science of looking at underlying stats you can't help but be impressed with Santi as he's leading all midfielders in chances created, through balls, successful passes in the final third, total shots and shots on target. Yeh, he's been good (and added a goal and assist for Spain just for good measure). Arsenal don't have the hype of the Manchester teams and it can't be ignored that they did fail to score in the two opening games, but the stats and the old eyeball test both tell me that this side will score plenty of goals this year and Santi should be in the middle of a lot of them. After van Persie he looks like the best captain play of the week for me. On a side (and pointless) note, I have decided to call Cazorla 'Santi'. Apologies if this is over familiar but like my penchant for 'Yaya' I believe it sounds better.

Lukas Podolski is a tough man for me to talk about as while I'm high on him for the season, his stats to date have only been okay. He's only managed 6 shots for the season, scoring with the only effort that hit the target which puts him alongside the likes of Lambert and Crouch rather than the elite players in the league. However, he's had plenty of touches in the final third of the field (71) and his 6 chances created (ranking 4th among forwards) hint of a player who can contribute assists as well as goals which I believe can help him get up into the higher end of the fantasy scoring charts. For this week I prefer Santi and I wouldn't push Podolski hard given the availability of other solid options for a slightly lower price (Ba, Fletcher etc) but he's certainly a player whose upside is among the highest at the position and should be considered for those looking for a longer term solution up top.

Carlos Tevez is always an option and Stoke haven't been quite as good this year at the back as in year's past, but this is still a much tougher fixture than United and Arsenal enjoy this week so Tevez (and Silva, Yaya etc) represents a risky play. I'd be okay handing Tevez the armband pretty much any week and if you don't have van Persie and are still unconvinced by Arsenal he's probably the safest option here but the chance of huge returns are diminished. In 7 away appearances last year Tevez was held in check 6 times registering just a couple of shots per appearance, but then of course exploded against Norwich for a hattrick. I'm working on some stats for the future captain rankings to try and determine how much impact a fixture has  on a player's performance but until then we'll just have to have an educated guess and this week that would lead me to like, but not love, Tevez.

Eden Hazard will likely get some attention after his early season heroics and it's well deserved given the mess QPR are currently in. Chelsea's low ranking is as much to do with their struggles on the road last season as it is QPR's relative strength. If you believe Chelsea have turned a corner under Di Matteo then you can bump them up the rankings and Hazard comes into play but if (like me) you are nervous about captaining players on the road if they don't play for City or United then Hazard is a big risk for this one. 

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 4

Arsenal
Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs, Ramsey, Frimpong, Arteta, Arshavin, Walcott, van Persie.
Subs: Fabianski, Park, Andre Santos, Djourou, Chamakh, Benayoun, Coquelin.

This lineup is what most predicted, though I am little surprised that Benayoun didn't get a chance ahead of Arshavin or Walcott, who have both flattered to deceive so far this year. Arshavin grabbed a fortuitous goal was pretty quiet throughout while Walcott had another game of promising positions turning into wasted chances. Benayoun got half an hour but was often pushed back with defensive duties, though he did play a couple of nice through balls to spring Arsenal counter attacks. I almost brought Ramsey in this week on the basis that this team will surely start scoring goals soon, but Arsenal just don't look too dynamic at the moment and even with great fixtures can't be relied upon for big goal hauls.

Defensively, the team obviously looked better than last week though Swansea still gave them some problems. Mertesacker looked a tad slow off the mark but dealt with most danger that came his way; an upgrade over both Djourou and Koscielny. With their lofty price tags, I'm not ready to consider buying anyone from this unit yet though.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Petrov, Delph, N'Zogbia, Agbonlahor, Heskey, Bent.
Subs: Guzan, Ireland, Albrighton, Delfouneso, Clark, Bannan, Herd.

Very settled lineup here with few changes made all year. The question is more finding value with those who play rather than wondering who will start. Most of the team come at a premium which isn't really justified though the defense has shown some promise. It's hard to get too excited about anyone on this team though.

Blackburn
Robinson, Salgado, Samba, Dann, Givet, Hoilett, Dunn, Formica, Nzonzi, Rochina, Goodwillie.
Subs: Bunn, Olsson, Petrovic, Yakubu, Vukcevic, Roberts, Lowe.

I literally have nothing to say about Blackburn. They may be the least compelling team of the last 5 years. I could add that Dann slotted straight into the first team but at 5.0m he is overpriced.

Bolton
Jaaskelainen, Boyata, Cahill, Knight, Robinson, Eagles, Reo-Coker, M Davies, Petrov, K Davies, Klasnic.
Subs: Bogdan, Muamba, Sanli, Pratley, Ngog, Kakuta, Wheater.

I hope no-one jumped on the Muamba bandwagon after his early goal as he is both (a) defensive minded and (b) liable to be benched. Don't say you weren't warned. There is some potential for rotation here but the players with fantasy value (K Davies, Klasnic, Knight and Petrov) look pretty entrenched in the side. I wonder is Tuncay has a bigger role to play at some point in the future but until then the established names look safe.

Chelsea
Cech, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole, Mata, Lampard, Ramires, Meireles, Sturridge, Anelka.
Subs: Hilario, Luiz, Torres, Malouda, Kalou, McEachran, Romeu.

Can we finally conclude that Bowingwa is here to stay? I'm very much surprised to see Luiz on the bench with Ivanovic favoured but Bosingwa seems to be ahead of both in the pecking order. I still feel he gets rested more than Cole but for his pricetag he makes a very nice option (provided Chelsea can start finishing the job and holding on in the last minute).

Offensively, I would not condone owning anyone in this side aside from Mata as the others carry either large price tags or face huge rotation risk. Meireles and Sturridge are worth monitoring due to their lower cost but with so many other options on the bench and neither having great games (I know Sturridge scored but his first half display was subdued at best), they too could face the chop soon. Villas-Boas makes me nervous as he doesn't seem to know what he wants to do with his side.

Everton
Howard, Hibbert, Jagielka, Distin, Baines, Coleman, Fellaini, Rodwell, Bilyaletdinov, Osman, Cahill.
Subs: Mucha, Drenthe, Stracqualursi, Neville, Gueye, Barkley, Vellios.

This side looks fairly settled though the presence of new boys Drenthe and Stracqualursi may cloud things in the future. That said, with Arteta gone and Saha absent once again, there is little value outside of Tim Cahill (or Baines if you like chasing offensive defender points).

Fulham
Schwarzer, Hughes, Senderos, Hangeland, JA Riise, Duff, Sidwell, Murphy, Dempsey, Ruiz, Zamora.
Subs: Etheridge, Kelly, Johnson, Kasami, Gecov, Grygera, Dembele.

I'm still not totally convinced that Senderos is safe here with Grygera lurking on the bench, but we can hopefully get more clues on Thursday as Fulham face Twente in the Europa Cup. It was no surprise to see Ruiz jump straight into the lineup, though having been withdrawn at half time after struggling with the pace of the game, it's perhaps worth holding off for a few weeks here before tracking the newest arrival to Craven Cottage. Once again Dempsey's role out wide appears to be limiting his opportunities and he looks overpriced at 8.5m.

Liverpool
Reina, Carragher, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Kuyt, Adam, Lucas, Henderson, Downing, Suarez.
Subs: Doni, Johnson, Carroll, Maxi, Coates, Spearing, Bellamy.

Carroll has really found himself on the outside looking in and should not be owned right now. The midfield is more settled than I expected but someone is set to miss out with the return of Gerrard so be careful before investing here. For what it's worth I would expect a combination of Henderson and Kuyt to miss most games. Adam's value takes a hit on Stevie's return though as he will surely surrender at least some set pieces. Suarez is of course safe to play most weeks but after a hot start he suddenly doesn't look to be in the same fantasy class as Rooney and Ageuro. With Hernandez returning, Dzeko firing and Adebayor starting, he no longer looks like a slam-dunk pick in that 8-10m range.

Man City
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Milner, Toure Yaya, Johnson, Silva, Aguero, Tevez.
Subs: Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Dzeko, Nasri, Toure, Balotelli, Razak.

At least the defensive line is settled. Dzeko was widely talked about sitting so this wasn't a huge surprise nor was Nasri (who broke a finger midweek), though it still will have hurt those who brought him in for Silva, who enjoyed another nice game. Tevez didn't impress but his presence is still an issue, as are Balotelli and Adam Johnson. I am going to do a separate post on how to deal with City's team in the next couple of days as they are proving to be one of the trickiest dilemmas for many years.

Man Utd
De Gea, Jones, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Nani, Cleverley, Anderson, Young, Hernandez, Rooney.
Subs: Lindegaard, Berbatov, Giggs, Smalling, Park, Carrick, Fabio Da Silva.

Evans over Smalling was a surprise for many, including myself who dropped Evans down to third on my bench on the assumption he would only get some junk time. Given that there is always the possibility of Smalling getting a game and that Vidic is set to return at the end of the month, I wouldn't advise pursuing Evans now, but if you hold him he's probably worth keeping (and starting) for now. At 5.5m I am starting to think Jones might be the best answer in this unit as his ability to play CB, RB and even DM make him somewhat of a John O'Shea 2.0. He will of course drop some minutes to Smalling and the Da Silva twins but Ferdinand has shown he is unlikely to exceed 25 starts or so making Jones' upside very intriguing.

Having stated my surprise to see Nani so far behind Young in people's pre-season rankings, I was personally pleased to see him have another good day this week. I think this matchup is closer than many think and it's worth noting that Opta credits Nani with 11 'key' passes to Young's 6, and shows Nani with one more shot (10 to 9). Gun to my head, I'd probably give Young the edge given his set piece duties but considering Nani's lower ownership and price tag, the decision is at least one to consider. Cleverly has been ruled out for a month, presumably opening up a spot in the team for Carrick or Fletcher (when fit).

Norwich
Rudd, Naughton, Barnett, De Laet, Tierney, Bennett, Crofts, Bradley Johnson, Surman, Holt, C Martin.
Subs: R Martin, Morison, Vaughan, Jackson, Hoolahan, Fox, Wilbraham.

We're starting to see some consistency with this lineup though with just 3 goals and zero clean sheets it isn't clear if there's any value to be had in this side.

Stoke
Begovic, Huth, Shawcross, Upson, Wilson, Pennant, Delap, Whitehead, Etherington, Walters, Crouch.
Subs: Sorensen, Whelan, Jones, Wilkinson, Shotton, Jerome, Palacios.

Woodgate was (surprise!) injured for this one so Upson got the start. Upson has been a useful Premier League player and it isn't clear how he will be accommodated in this team when everyone is healthy, though I would still give the edge to Woodgate. With three clean sheets in the bag already, Shawcross would appear to be worth the extra 0.5m given his certainty to play pretty much every week.

I'm not a Crouch guy and his presence along with fellow new-arrival Jerome just serves to cloud this front line and dilute the value of the incumbent starters. Walters' penalty duties are a boost to his value and despite the competition, he remains decent value for the time being. I rate Etherington but he had another quiet fantasy game here and at 6.5m he's becoming tough to own. I will add him to list of players to investigate in this week's chalkboard analysis.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Bardsley, Bramble, Brown, Richardson, Larsson, Cattermole, Gardner, Colback, Sessegnon, Bendtner
Subs: Westwood, Wickham, Vaughan, Ji, Turner, Elmohamady, McClean.

It looked like Bendtner was going to potentially cause some issues here but with Gyan unexpectedly moving on, the lineup is basically as you were. Strangely, Sunderland have managed to find the back of the net against Chelsea and Liverpool but were blanked against both Swansea and Newcastle. Larsson received a lot of backing after his week one display while Sessegnon was a pre-season favourite of many (including this writer) but this Sunderland side really doesn't look too good right now.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Taylor, Agustien, Britton, Allen, Sinclair, Dyer, Graham.
Subs: Tremmel, Dobbie, Lita, Moore, Bessone, Gower, Richards.

The starting lineup is starting to take shape here though I've been generally underwhelmed by the play of Graham and Sinclair, who both arrived with pretty good reputations from the Championship. Zero goals through four games speaks for itself and the 07-08 Derby County team might be on notice as they look for someone to take their record away from them (20 goals in 38 games). Dyer caught the eye again here but no matter how good a player looks, there aren't too many goals or assists to be had on this team at the moment and thus ownership of any of their players becomes tough. At 4.6m and 4.9m Dyer and Graham at least have the plus of being extremely cheap.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, King, Kaboul, Assou-Ekotto, Kranjcar, Parker, Modric, Bale, Adebayor, Defoe.
Subs: Cudicini, Bassong, Livermore, Pavlyuchenko, Townsend, Falque, Giovani.

Adebayor comes straight in and makes an impact, probably sparking a rush of transfers for the 8.0m man. There is a distinct lack of talent in that 8.0m range so if there's no way you can stretch to a Dzeko or a Suarez, the moves makes a lot of sense. I was a fan of Adebayor's play at Arsenal and City and I have no doubt he can score goals again the Premier League. I am somewhat concerned about how this team fits together when Van der Vaart returns, which could be much sooner than expected, especially given Redknapp's love for Defoe. However, it'll be hard to drop Adebayor after scoring on his debut and if he holds that spot down he becomes incredibly tempting at 8.0m.

With Parker slotting in alongside Modric in the middle, you'd expect this lineup to be fairly settled once Lennon returns (in place of Kranjcar) with the question of Van der Vaart/Defoe/Adebayor the only real issue.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, Olsson, Tamas, Shorey, Dorrans, Mulumbu, Scharner, Thomas, Long, Odemwingie.
Subs: Fulop, Tchoyi, Morrison, Brunt, Dawson, Jones, Cox.

Very surprised to see Brunt benched here as I've felt he's been one of their best players over the past couple of seasons (I haven't seen much of the Baggies this year though - has anyone seen Brunt play poorly?). That front pairing should now be settled and both provide good value in price ranges which lack too many other options. I like Odenwingie a lot as a player and before Adebayor arrived back on the scene I was ready to anoint him my favourite sub-8.5m forward. I am currently debating if a front line of a 11-12m player alongside Dzeko and Odemwingie might be preferable to two 11-12m players and a budget player. Those musings may require a separate, and and undoubtedly long/incoherent post.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Boyce, Caldwell, Lopez, Figueroa, Rodallega, Diame, Watson, McArthur, Moses, Di Santo.
Subs: Kirkland, McCarthy, Crusat, Gomez, Sammon, Jones, Stam.

This lineup is pretty settled, I'm just not sure how much of it you want a part of. Wigan have faced all three promoted sides (and now red hot City) but have only managed 3 goals in the process. Rodallega has not shown the form he did last year and the team seem to be really missing N'Zogbia's dynamic play. Moses remains on option given his price tag but he no longer justifies consideration as anything more than an emergency sub.

Wolverhampton
Hennessey, Stearman, Johnson, Berra, Ward, Kightly, Henry, O'Hara, Hunt, Doyle, Fletcher.
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Hammill, Milijas, Vokes, Foley, Jarvis.

I want to like this team offensively but with a couple of blanks against good, but not great, defenses my confidence has been rocked a bit. Jarvis was only fit enough for the bench but Kightly is a good replacement and that front six should be generating goals. No one is really separating themselves within the team making it hard to single any one them out and the current goal shortage compounds that issue. The fixtures get tougher from here so unless we see a fairly dramatic shift in the way the team are playing, you might consider looking elsewhere for your mid level options.

Gameweek 4 Diary

14:40 I haven't been able to tune into the Chelsea game today but having just checked the scored I am absolutely delighted. Two assists from Lampard (who will surely add bonus points later) as well as a goal-clean sheet combo from Ashley Cole have given the Juice a great start to the weekend. The other goals were scored by Anelka and Ballack with Malouda the man to miss out in the midfield rotation this week.

14:45 All over at Stamford Bridge and that's a great result for Ancelotti, Chelsea and most importantly Pure Juice. Well done boys.

14:50 New arrivals Huth and Tuncay are both on the bench this week for Stoke as Shawcross has been passed fit. The assumption is that Wilkinson will be the man to miss out going forward but this situation is worth following. Huth has been added to the game at 4.5m which looks like a good price for a defender is a unit that is excellent at home, and whose height should make him a threat from set pieces. Perhaps more interesting is that Tuncay has been listed as a midfielder and at 6m could be a decent price. Hopefully he will come on today so we can see what kind of position he will play but considering Fuller, Beattie and Kitson have yet to score in the league this year, it wouldn't be a stretch to think he might get some games up front.

15:03 GOAL Geovanni opens his league account for the season after a great assist from Hunt. Stephen Hunt (5m) is looking like a genuine fantasy threat with two goals and an assist to his name already this year. There are a good selection of midfielders available for 5-6m and a developing strategy might be to hold two premium talents and then rotate 2 of 3 guys available at 5m.

15:15 Quiet start elsewhere on a day in which I was struggling to pick too many clean sheets. Slow starts for Spurs and Liverpool who are both expected to win handsomely today. Stoke-Sunderland looks more likely to be a 0-0 but hopefully things pickup in the next few minutes.

15:25 Bolton sitting back at home with one man up front. Expect a one or two nil away victory here. When sides are so unambitious at home its often just a matter of time before the away side gets through. I hope I don't jinx things but I am very happy to have Insua in my team right now.

15:30 Both Sky Sports and BBC suggest that Luka Modric is 'running the show' at White Hart Lane' so it will be interesting to see if he can get any fantasy points. I mentioned that this is a week to see if Modric can be a real fantasy contributor and so far the answer is an unfortunate no.

15:34 GOAL Bolton take the lead and I totally jinxed the Reds. Bolton's first real attack of the game results in a goal for Kevin Davies, his first of the season. Liverpool's inability to contribute suggest to me that they are should not considered alongside Chelsea and United until they can put this run of awful form behind them. As for Davies (a blog favourite) its great to see him on the scoresheet as he is one of the last 'old school' forwards around these days. At 7m he is probably overpriced but he can get on a streak and is a decent plug in if the fixture is right. Elmander is credited with the assist.

15:41 GOAL Goal from an unlikely source as Dave Kitson manages to do something he couldn't all last year: score a Premier League goal. Although not worth fantasy consideration, the goal does have wider implications as in form strikers will limit the amount of time Tuncay - a potential buy - plays up front. No assist given for the goal.

15:42 GOAL Equaliser for Liverpool at the Reebok and Glen Johnson has got another, suggesting he could be the best 'premier' defender right now. Liverpool's inability to keep clean sheets worries me though and I won't pick defenders based on the goalscoring record. Last year no defender scored more than 4 goals where as United had 24 clean sheets. His forward play does lend itself to assist though and if Liverpool can get their defense on track, the former Hammer looks like better value than the likes of Vidic and Terry. No assist was given for the goal.

16:03 GOAL Just as Hull took the lead after 3 minutes in the first half, Wolves hit right back at the start of the second. The goal has come from Stearmon to put McCarthy's men on level terms.

16:04 Nightmare scenario for Spurs as both King and Modric come up limping from early challenges in the second half. King has gone off while Modric will try and continue. This could answer my question as to whether to hold onto Modric or not.

16:05 Bolton score against the run of play again, this time through Tamir Cohen. After stating my confidence in Insua this week I am starting to doubt the Liverpool defense more and more as the day goes on. Davies gets the assist to give him a very nice day indeed. Meanwhile Modric has had to be taken off and that might be the incentive I need to move the playmaker on for the next few weeks.

16:13 SENT OFF Sean Davis sent off for Bolton which gives Liverpool a glimmer of hope to save this game. Sky Sports suggest it was a touch unfair and that Lucas was asking for the card which is a shame, especially in light of the midweek controversy. Liverpool almost hit right back as Gerrard thunders a shot against the bar.

16:15 GOAL Liverpool are level and its the Pure Juice combo or Kuyt to Torres which has caused me to scare the girlfriend with an over the top fist pump. I was about to suggest betting on Liverpool to win this one but I fancy the odds aren't that great anymore.

16:25 US fans will be pleased to see blog favourite Jozy Altidore on at Molineux and will hope he can have the kind of impact he had last week at Bolton. Not sure how Brown can possibly rate Caleb Folan ahead of the former Villareal player though if this continues I will have to look elsewhere for my budget striker.

16:29 GOAL Second half substitute Peter Crouch opens his account for the season nodding in a Tom Huddlestone cross. That goal was always on the cards and its only a shame that Modric had limped off and so could not be involved. Keane's early season form has limited Crouch's appearances but as the season goes on I can see Defoe-Crouch being the first choice partnership for Redknapp.

16:31 Liverpool want a penalty after a Gerrard shot strikes a Bolton arm but Wiley is having none of it. Liverpool had plenty of late wins last year and you feel another is coming here which could give the Reds the lift they need to get their title challenge back on track.

16:33 GOAL To borrow a quote from Chris Kamara - unbelievable. Lee Bowyer has equalised for Birmingham which shatters the hearts of many fantasy players who will have banked on a clean sheet in this one.

16:35 Team news from Old Trafford is that Berbatov will start on the bench with Giggs playing off the lone striker Rooney. Bit of a surprise that and the ultimate mark of respect for Wenger's side. Its Evra, Vidic, Brown and O'Shea at the back as Jonny Evans and Neville miss out. Arsenal look to be 4-4-2 with Eduardo dropped to the bench with Arshavin and Van Persie backed up by a solid lineup of Song, Diaby, Denilson and Eboue. Not sure if there is enough craft there but they certainly look ready for a battle.

16:42 GOAL As predicted Steve Gerrard looks to have got the winner at the Reebok, smashing a long shot into the top corner of the net. If ever there was a way to make easy money it was backing Liverpool at 2-1 down today. BBC suggest the assist belongs to Torres but I will confirm when the Premier League site starts working.

16:42 Tuncay is on for Fuller at Stoke but won't get enough time for us to see what his role will be this year. Keep watching him in the next few weeks.

16:45 Torres did indeed get the assist for Gerrard's winner which could give him double figures if the 'experts' give him any bonus points.

16:50 Stoke grab their third clean sheet of the season and are yet to concede at home. They have only suffered one defeat in 2009 at the Brittania.

16:52 GOAL Late late goal at White Hart Lane and its that man Aaron Lennon who has done it again as if to well and truly end the Modric-Lennon debate. The final whistle goes and Lennon's goal did indeed prove to be the winner. Liverpool have also won thanks to goals from Torres, Gerrard and Johnson.

Great afternoon of action so far with the best game yet to come. Check back during the United-Arsenal game and then later tonight for all the fantasy analysis of today's events.

Gameweek 4 Preview

The headline game this week if of course the clash of the titans at Old Trafford on Saturday evening and it is there that we start the preview for next week's games:

Man Utd v Arsenal
Arsene Wenger has been criticised for many things in his Arsenal career, one of which has been his side's inability to win the big games. However, a look at the stats though show that Arsenal have taken more points from United than any other team since Ferguson too over at Old Trafford. Before last week's 5-0 lashing of Wigan one might have fancied Wenger's men for this one too but with United get men back from fitness, its looking increasingly tough for the wiley French man. Vidic returned on Saturday to help United to their second clean sheet of the season, though first choice partner Ferdinand is still a couple of weeks away. Evra will continue at right back and has been a great choice so far this year, currently 5th among all defenders. His chalkboard from week 3 (right) looks more like that of a winger than a left back and this kind of forward play will surely see him get in the assists and goals categories soon. The United midfield has been rotated regularly this season and is therefore too unreliable to rely on for fantasy production. I expectd big things of Carrick this year, but he too was dropped last week after missing a penalty against Burnley which Ferguson claimed cost his side the game. Rooney, with three goals to his name, is second in the league in scoring and has proven me wrong as a legitimate top 5 striker who can repay his lofty price tag. Look our for a feature later in the week on just how high I rate him among his peers.

This game comes at an unfortunate time for Arsenal who are in sublime form and looking more like the invincibles of 03-04 than last year's underwhelming side. I think this Arsenal team is much better in reality than in fantasy terms with Arshavin, Denilson and Eduardo being better players than they are fantasy producers. For evidence of this, look at Denilson incredible passing performance against Portsmouth this week (left). The Arsenal defense has been average this year, without keeping a clean sheet though goals from Vermaelen and Gallas have overshadowed this underachievement. They are not a good play again here and if you have them I would advise selling them as next weeks trip to City promises few returns again. Up front, the Arsenal forwards have managed just one goal so far, despite the Gunners notching 10 goals in 2 games. Van Persie has 3 assists though and his 8 shots last week against Portsmouth show his desire to score and not just provide. At 10m he is still decent value and despite the tough fixture you should keep him in your team this week. The same can be said for Fabregas who is enjoying a good start to the season though be sure to check his injury status to make sure he can shake off the hamstring injury that will cause him to miss the Celtic game.

Chelsea v Burnley
Not much strategy needed here: play all your Blues, rest those Clarets. Burnley have made a good start to their maiden Premier League campaign, including of course the incredible defeat of United, and two clean sheets in their last two games. However, they struggled on their travels to Stoke and Ancelotti's ruthless unit are in good form right now. Chelsea managed 16 shots away to Fulham (who had the 6th best home defense last year) which does not bode well for Owen Coyle's side. Lampard, Anelka and Drogba are obviosuly key plays this week, and mid level players like Essien also look to be good value. The Chelsea defense is also the safest play for the week with Cole, Terry, Carvlho and Bosingwa looking to be a fairly settled back four right now.
Burnley's defenders have been excellent sleeper picks this year but its time to move them back to the bench as a couple of goals or more could be shipped in this one. They may be legitimate options in the future, but at least for this week, the Cinderella story team should not be invited to the ball.

Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn have dissapointed me so far this season, especially the defense who I rated as a sleeper pick. To be fair, City at home and Sunderland are far from easy games and not many sides will pick up clean sheets in either of these fixtures when the season is done. New arrival Kalinic had 4 shots against Sunderland in 77 minutes of action and Allardyce is backing the Croatian to succeed. At 6.4m he is worth a look if you cannot stretch to Bent/Jones/Cole range. I like Pedersen (6.5) to start to shine in this side and this was affirmed by his goal in midweek against Gillingham. Pedersen puts an incredible number of balls into the box and with Kalinic joining McCarthy, Roberts and Di Santo, he should have some decent targets to put the ball in the net. With Nelsen back on the sidelines, and Warnock seemingly on his way to Villa, the Rovers defense looks a bit thin and should not be considered an every week starter team right now.
West Ham have been pretty good this year so far and were a touch unlucky to lose to Spurs at the weekend after threatening their goal with 19 shots in the game. The stars have been Noble and Cole, while blog favourite Jimenez has also contributed well (though check his injury status as he picked up a minor knock on Sunday). I like this trio in the long run and each are decent buys right now due to West Ham's good looking fixture list.

Bolton v Liverpool
This is a huge game for Liverpool as any more dropped points this early really could mean the end of their title challenge. Big games need big players and so Gerrard and Torres are great plays this week with Gerrard my tip to score in this one after his mistake on Monday against Villa in giving away a penalty. With no goals so far, Bolton's attack is expectedly weak and so Liverpool's defense looks like a good play also. Skrtel made a somewhat surprise return to the team on Monday and so the back four looks pretty stable with Johnson, Carragher and Insua all ready to join Skrtel as good pickups for this week (Liverpool have great fixtures until week 8).
Bolton have no real fantasy options right now and should be avoided until they prove they actually know where the goals are. The attack is so anaemic that even Megson has noticed that Elmander needs to start scoring soon.

Stoke v Sunderland
Two good sides here, who are underrated in different ways and are good sources of cheap-solid fantasy production. The Potters have kept two clean sheets in three games so far though do not get carried away just yet as they were against Burnley and Birmingham. This game will therefore be a good test for Pulis's side and a clean sheet here would suggest that Stoke defenders (particularly Shawcross, who is a goal threat) will be every week starters. With Beattie cured by sugar, the attacking prowess of Stoke looks a bit better though aside from Beattie there is little else to excite a fantasy player for now.
I really like what Steve Bruce is doing in Sunderland and I do not think it is totally unreasonable for Sunderland to challenge the likes of Villa and Everton for 6th place. He has one of the best, and most balanced, midfields in the league which contains craft (Malbranque), pace (Richardson), power (Cana) and steel (Cattermole) with all four having fantasy potential. The pairing of Bent and Jones is also indicative of a top 6-8 side with both players contributing 2 goals already this term. I like all six of these players this week though they won't have it all their own way the Brittania. Much like the Stoke defense, this is a good game to see just how far the Sunderland front line have come and if they can score a couple here then the 'buy' tag should be applied to Jones, Bent, Malbranue and Richardson.

Tottenham v Birmingham
Spurs have started the season very well under Harry Redknapp and look set to continue this fine form in this one. Birmingham's defense has done very well so far this year conceding just one goal in 3 games but a trip to in form Spurs might prove a different story and Defoe and Modric look like good plays this week. Spurs defense have been solid but have yet to notch a clean sheet, conceding one goal in each game so far. I like them this week to get over that hump and Assou Ekotto (5.1) and Bassong (5.1) look like good pick ups this week as Spurs begin a run of 7 games that includes 3 green light games (Bir, Bur, Sto) and only one red light (@Che). I am starting to get a bit worried about one one my main targets for the season, as Modric (7.6)has no goals, one assist and no bonus points so far. With United and Chelsea on the horizon (both red light games for attackers) I would consider moving Modric if he doesnt deliver again this week. Lennon (7.6) is the main man in midfield with a goal and two assists to date and looking at his chalkboard shows that he spends alot of time in the oppostion half and plays a significant amount of passes into the danger zone which should allow his production to continue in the coming weeks. Defoe is making a claim to be considered as an elite striker, though due to the two tough fixtures on the horizon I would avoid paying 8.8m for him and try and nab him after a few people move him after gameweek 6.

Wolves v Hull City
Like the other promoted sides, Wolves have defended well, conceding just 2 goals in 3 games so far this season. Hull have played a bit better of late notching back to back wins over Bolton and Southend and the introduction of Altidore (who scored midweek) has given them spark up front they were sorely lacking. Wolves defenders are still a good play this week though as this game isnt likely to see more than a goal or two at most. Milijas is their most creative player though his lack of bonus points suggest he either isn't doing enough or at least isn't in the pundits thoughts for bonuses yet and so his value is limited until he (and his strikers) can start scoring. Altidore's success midweek (okay Southend aren't quite Ac Milan but a goal is a goal) confirms to me that he is the best value striker for under 6m and has the potential to experience an exponential rise in value with a current holding of just 0.9%.

Portsmouth v Man City
With one goal scored and six conceded, Portsmouth no zero players worthy of fantasy consideration at this point. City's defense is a great play this week though with Arsenal and United in the next two I wouldn't be buying at this point. The forwards are less of a risk, with Wright Phillips (8.1) being the cheapest of the regulars and with the most runs and dribbles among all players he looks like a decent buy at this point. With Robinho's slow start and Tevez looking likely to be rotated, Adebayor (10) remains the only striker worthy of consideration and the fact he is owned by just 5% of players makes him a good differentiator as well as someone whose price will likely rise if can continue his goalscoring.

Everton v Wigan
With the departure of Lescott to City, Everton's defense is overpriced right now and unless Moyes can bring in some replacements quickly, I would stay away for the forseeable future. Going forward the Toffees are desperately missing Mikel Arteta though Yakubu scored in the reserves midweek and will give them some much needed fire power up front. Despite the favourable fixture I would stay away from Moyes' side for now. For Wigan, Koumas (5.1) has been excellent this year and is the cheapest focal point of a team available in the game. Rodallega (6.6) has also looked useful though Wigan did not travel well last year and until they can prove otherwise do not expect too many goals from Martinez's side. Their defense is a good rotation play for those wishing to drop Arsenal and United players and I particularly like Scharner due to ability to play further forward and proven prowess at set pieces.

Aston Villa v Fulham
Villa have taken a massive step back from last year and have not simply not replaced Barry or Laursen satisfactorily. Ashley Young (8.3) is still a decent pick but comparable players can probably had for less money (eg Malbranque). Fulham's lack of goals on the road over the past year suggest that the Villa defense is a decent pick and with Birmingham and Pompey coming up Shorey (4.9) and Beye (5) might be decent pickups.
Murphy (6.4) hasn't hit the heights he did last year but has been rewarded with a new contract this week and was rightly named as one of the most underrated players of the last few years by the Guardian. The assists, goals and bonus points should come and with only one red light game (Ars) in the next few weeks he could be a good pickup before everyone else catches on.