Showing posts with label Gameweek 3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gameweek 3. Show all posts

Monday, September 3, 2012

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 3

Arsenal
Mannone, Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Diaby, Arteta, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Cazorla, Podolski, Giroud
Subs: Martinez, Koscielny, Andre Santos, Walcott, Ramsey, Coquelin, Gervinho.

A really good display here from Arsenal with some impressive performances throughout the side. The Gunners earned their 3rd straight clean sheet and were generally good value for it with Mannone not really making any saves of note. The back four have settled down very nicely and were kept together despite the return of Koscielny from injury. Over the course of the season I'm not sure if Mertesacker will hold him off but for now it doesn't make sense for Wenger to change much. Jenkinson remains particularly good value until Sagna returns (currently on schedule for the end of the month) and by then the centre back position should be cleared up so a transition can be made to either Mertesacker, Koscielny or Gibbs if this side remain a solid defensive option.

Offensively I am very excited by this team's prospects and while I'm not pushing their title credentials yet, I'm confident this side can be more of a threat to the league's elite than in prior years. Arteta and Diaby were masterful in the middle, with Diaby making a strong claim to head towards the top of the class in my recent question about where all the centre midfielders went. We're not there yet, but at times, if you squinted (and probably had a few beers) you could almost see Diaby's shirt number change to a #4. That doesn't mean too much in fantasy though, so let's push onto the weeks' stars.

Podolski is a tough man to categorise so far, as while the stats have been underwhelming (6 shots, 1 on target, 6 chances created), I have seen all three Arsenal games this year and he's ranged from useful to very impressive in his three appearances (significantly better than Giroud and the other wide players in my eyes). I see him as locked into the team and with the midfield trio of Arteta, Diaby and Cazorla looking mighty impressive, he is surely guaranteed to hit double digit goals and close to that many assists. Whether he can do enough to justify his cost over the likes of Ba and Fletcher or come close enough to the elite group to make it worth saving a couple of million is a close call, but for now I'm okay giving him the benefit of the doubt.

The other highlight in this Arsenal side to date is Santi Cazorla, who has been outstanding in all three games and finally got the production to match his underlying stats this week. Through three weeks he simply leads all midfielders in total shots, shots on target, chances created, through balls and touches in the final third and if you have any faith at all in Arsenal this year, Cazorla has Fabregas like upside without too much risk. Two trips to Manchester loom large on the fixture list over the next seven weeks but overall the next 10 look rather favourable and so Cazorla should be strongly considered before assuming Hazard is the only way to go, or for those looking to replace a Bale or Mata.

Aston Villa
Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Clark, Lichaj, Bannan, El Ahmadi, Ireland, Weimann, Holman, Bent
Subs: Given, N'Zogbia, Agbonlahor, Bowery, Baker, Burke, Williams.

Benching keepers for one mistake rarely seems to gain a great deal but Lambert did so anyway this week. This isn't really a defense you want to be backing anyway so if you were holding Given it seems sensible to cut your losses and move on. In truth the same might be said about this whole team, though at least Bent was more involved this week. Even then though, his 8.3m price tag looks unjustifiable until this side look more dangerous going forward and I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

Everton
Howard, Neville, Jagielka, Distin, Baines, Osman, Gibson, Naismith, Pienaar, Fellaini, Jelavic
Subs: Mucha, Hibbert, Heitinga, Mirallas, Gueye, Coleman, Anichebe.

This looks like the first eleven for now and while I'm a little surprised to see Heitinga relegated to bench duty that appears to be the way Moyes will send his team out. Mirallas will likely have an impact sooner rather than later while Oviedo would appear to be cover and shouldn't figure in the first team early on. Fellaini and Pienaar both come somewhere near the top of that mid-range midfield group along with a host of other options like Michu, Walters, Nolan etc. I'd take Fellaini of the two but Pienaar has been fairly impressive since his return to Goodison too and carries a slightly lower price tag if money is tight.

I'd categorise this defense as good rather than great and thus it's tricky to pick any of that back line over the players from teams like Swansea or Sunderland given the premium you'll have to pay. Maybe Distin at 5.5m if the fixtures fall nicely but he's not on my personal shortlist for now.

Fulham
Schwarzer, Riether, Hangeland, Hughes, Riise, Diarra, Sidwell, Richardson, Duff, Rodallega, Petric. 
Subs: Stockdale, Kelly, Baird, Kasami, Berbatov, Briggs, Kacaniklic

Last week I noted that "I was perhaps a little harsh last week suggesting Fulham might find it hard to score too many goals, as I failed to give enough credit to Dembele". Ah, sorry about that one Fulham fans. Throw in the inevitable (and thoroughly disappointing) departure of Dempsey and my concern has quickly returned. It would be hyperbole to write this team off because of one off game (well, one half really) but the defense has been uncharacteristically shaky through the start of the season and they simply don't have the firepower to win too many high scoring games.

You have to think that Berbatov will slide into the first team sooner rather than later and so he becomes an extremely interesting prospect (browse the FFS comment section for a sample of the wild excitement). Aesthetically I simply love Berbatov. His game is unorthodox and not always easy to appreciate but he has a rare ability to do certain things on the field which 95% of the league just cannot do, and his first touch remains otherworldly. Of course, "wow" moments don't score fantasy points on their own, but he's been incredibly consistent in that arena too over the years. If he plays with regularity and can stay fit I'd be okay pencilling him in for 10 goals and close to that many assists, though I might be getting a touch carried away as this will be the worst surrounding cast he's had during his time in England by some distance. I would be all over Berbatov if it weren't for the presence of others in his price range who have already hit the ground running: Ba and Fletcher. I will of course be watching Berbatov closely but with a couple of good options in the same price bracket I see no real reason to act too soon on this one.

Liverpool
Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Jose Enrique, Gerrard, Allen, Sahin, Borini, Suarez, Sterling. 
Subs: Jones, Henderson, Coates, Downing, Carragher, Shelvey, Kelly

This side isn't terrible but the game against Arsenal gave us a good chance to give them a realistic assessment against a team they would hope to be equaling soon, and they were very much left wanting. You'd be hard pressed to conclude that anyone in this side is an upgrade over their counterpart at Arsenal, never mind one of the Manchester teams. The issue with this 4-2-3-1 is very much like that which we discussed with United a week or so ago when Rooney leads the line. Suarez drops into space, Gerrard pushes forward and Borini drifts in which leaves a very crowded quadrant of the field with no real way to cut through the opponents defensive line. Hopefully Assaidi (or, heaven forbid, Downing) will help balance this team out a bit.

The good news is the continued play (at a decent level) of Raheem Sterling. I don't believe you're getting an excellent winger from an elite side here, but you are getting a promising player who is still surrounded by some talent and if you think about what he has to do at 4.5m to justify investment, his chance of success is very promising. I can't imagine he will play every game until the next transfer window, especially with Assaidi waiting in the wings, but with the disappointing performances of Borini and the fact that Downing is, well, Downing, you wouldn't bet against Sterling continuing to rack up some minutes. If you're wildcarding this week and want a short term fix at 4.5m he might be worth a roll of the dice but the upside probably isn't sufficient to waste a transfer on, considering you will rarely play your 5th midfielder.

Man City
Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, Kolarov, Silva, Yaya Toure, Rodwell, Nasri, Tevez, Dzeko
Subs: Pantilimon, Milner, Sinclair, Clichy, Toure, Balotelli, Razak

Aside from the two troubles spots of left back (Clichy / Kolarov) and the second 'forward' (Dzeko Balotelli) this side is largely stable (though Mancini is always liable to spring a surprise and the likes of Milner will always get some minutes here and there). The new arrivals of Sinclair, Maicon, Javi Garcia and to a lesser extent Nastasic, could cause a log jam at some point but I'm not sure they really change the standing of the widely held options here.

I have some concerns over what happens if and when Mancini plays the 5-3-2 / 3-5-2 formation he's toyed with in the preseason and which Maicon looks custom made for. In that system we're left with just 5 advanced slots with two of the midfield likely to be occupied by Yaya Toure and a defensively able partner (Javi Garcia, Rodwell, Barry etc). That leaves just three spots in which to fit Silva, Nasri and four forward,s guaranteeing plenty of disappointing and frustration. Perhaps Maicon will be used as a traditional right back (surely only at home or against the league's weaker sides?) but this is a situation to monitor if you hold Silva, Nasri or even Yaya who might be pushed deeper in such a system.

Man Utd
Lindegaard, Da Silva, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Valencia, Cleverley, Carrick, Welbeck, van Persie, Kagawa
Subs: De Gea, Evans, Giggs, Hernandez, Nani, Scholes, Powell.

Another stellar job from the United scouting staff here: where do they keep finding these under-the-radar stars? This time it was Robin van Persie who you may recall had a useful season last time out with Arsenal. I had some concerns coming into the year about how he plays with Rooney but these have been brushed aside (for now at least) with Rooney's leg injury and van Persie's timely reminder of his incredible talent. This week's display will be enough for a majority of managers to assume van Persie is now right back on track to have last year's success so I won't bother making that side of the argument. The knock against him is that we still don't know what happens when Rooney returns. Sure, he seems better equipped to lead the line than Rooney but to simply write off Rooney's place in this side or relegate to him a supporting role is still premature.

There's no doubting that barring injury van Persie should reside somewhere near the top of the scoring charts by year's end, both in fantasy points and goals scored. The sticking point for me though is that I'd say the same about Carlos Tevez who costs 3.6m less yet comes with the same job security surrounded by arguably more talent. There's no reason you can't grab them both, but then your midfield won't be able to accommodate more than one of the Hazard, Cazorla, Silva, Kagawa etc group, all of whom again have huge potential for 3.0m-4.0m less than the Dutchman.

I love van Persie and very nearly brought him in this week myself. But, my final decision came down to not finding too many 6.0m players who would perform like 9.0m players or 4.5m defenders who would act like 6.0m defenders so I needed to use the funds elsewhere in my team. I wouldn't argue with a decision to bring van Persie in but I would implore you at least think about the opportunity cost before you do so.

Edit: De Gea was dropped for this one - h/t to @dmnfitz for reminding me, I somehow managed to neglect the fact totally in the first draft - and looks tough to own right now. I personally thought he had looked okay between the sticks (not great, but okay) and really brought the same skill set as last season: excellent shot stopper but still not dominant in the air or with organising his defense (see Vidic OG). Gun to my head I believe De Gea starts 30 games this year, but I have nothing concrete to base that on and thus I'm leaning towards slapping a sell tag on him. Depending on who your backup is, you would ideally give him another game as Wigan at home is tough to pass up, but at this point I wouldn't say it's rash to move on. Replacement options are somewhat limited (hence why De Gea was so initially attractive) though Everton have a nice run of games coming up putting Howard in play while Swansea have looked good again (though their fixtures aren't the best). Otherwise, I'd recommend blowing up your keepers and reverting to the tried and trusted rotation pairings discussed in preseason.

A couple of other points to note from this unsettled side was the benching of Nani, who I liked as the safest of the wide players, the continued play of Rafael and the early subbing of an underwhelming Kagawa. Welbeck didn't do much for me here and so I don't see a reason to change my view on Nani. With Kagawa not impressing himself and being withdrawn on the hour, there's at least an argument to be made that Nani could yet end the year as United's top scoring midfielder. Kagawa has looked good at times but his underlying stats are underwhelming (6 shots, 3 on target, 5 chances created) and we'll need to see more in order to justify his price tag. Until Rooney returns I see him as being pretty locked into this side, but after that things have the potential to get very messy. Kagawa owners should at least starting considering their next move, even if they don't make it yet (with Wigan at home next it's best to hold off). Finally, Rafael was exposed for the first goal and that just underscores my belief that Phil Jones could earn significant minutes at right back when fit.

Newcastle
Krul, Simpson, Coloccini, S Taylor, Santon, Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Anita, Gutierrez, Ba, Cisse. 
Subs: Harper, Williamson, Gosling, Amalfitano, Bigirimana, Marveaux, Obertan

There's never much to say about Newcastle within this post. Pardew's squad is thin (perhaps worryingly so) but that makes great reading for fantasy managers whose prize assets are rolled out every week without much concern. After converting everything that came within 10 yards of him last season, it's safe to now conclude that Cisse won't be the exception to the rough rule, and isn't the greatest finisher of all time, instead he's just a good player - who would have guessed! His 6 shots (2 on target) are fine but as suggested in the preseason, there's no real reason to distinguish him from Ba (11 shots, 3 on target) and thus the extra cost appears wasteful. Despite the setback here this defense remains a good option and there are enough promising fixtures on the horizon to give one faith to stick with them. The imminent return of Tiote may also help in this area.

Norwich
Ruddy, R Martin, Bassong, Barnett, Garrido, Johnson, Howson, Snodgrass, Pilkington, Holt, Jackson
Subs: Rudd, Turner, Surman, Hoolahan, Morison, Tierney, Tettey

A good point here for Norwich and one which was largely deserved (admittedly as much due to Spurs' flat play than Norwich's particular excellence). That's not to put Norwich down though as they looked useful in possession and got another good performance from Snodgrass. The lineup is quite settled now with only the omission of Turner being somewhat surprising. That said, I still don't see too much here to get excited about. I like Snodgrass but he was pushed to a more traditional right wing spot here and at 5.9m needs to outscore the likes of Nolan, Dyer or Morrison which looks like a stretch at the moment.

QPR
Green, Bosingwa, Ferdinand, Nelsen, Da Silva, Wright-Phillips, Granero, Park, Faurlin, Zamora, Johnson
Subs: Murphy, Derry, Cisse, Mackie, Onuoha, Dyer, Hoilett

I seem to recall a blogger not too far from here suggesting that the front six of this side will be hard to predict all year, with only Cisse really guaranteed of a starting spot. Well, that ship has apparently sailed too with the Frenchman benched this week in favour of Andy Johnson. Until we see more from this side by way of lineup stability and actual production I see nothing here worth more than a cursory glance. Next.

Southampton
K Davis, Clyne, Fonte, Hooiveld, Fox, Puncheon, S Davis, Schneiderlin, Ward-Prowse, Lallana, Lambert
Subs: Gazzaniga, Rodriguez, Lee, Do Prado, Richardson, Mayuka, Seaborne

This back line is one of a couple in the league to have 5 players who've all played 3 games so barring any unforeseen changes this lineup is here to stay. Though they haven't looked overly sturdy to date, they've faced the best two teams in the division so let's see them a couple more times before writing them off. The two wing backs take up some very advanced positions so Clyne in particular could be outstanding value if the Saints can tighten up a bit at the back.

The midfield is a tricky group to judge so far with a good amount of fluidity apparently built into the system. Puncheon impressed this week and took up some good advanced positions but he was deployed in a much deeper role against City and didn't even feature against Wigan. Lallana is most likely the best pickup here but at 6.0m he is alongside some fairly established names who have enjoyed success in the past and thus he's a tough guy to take a flyer on. His 10 shots, 3 on target are encouraging though and given that Southampton will have put United, City and Arsenal behind them after next week, the fixtures might open up enough to make him an interesting pickup.

Stoke
Begovic, Wilkinson, Huth, Shawcross, Wilson, Whelan, Cameron, Whitehead, Kightly, Crouch, Walters
Subs: Sorensen, Pennant, Jones, Edu, Adam, Upson, Jerome

After a couple of encouraging defensive displays to open the season, Stoke were quite poor this week against Wigan which might bring some storm clouds over their generally reliable defense. That's probably a touch unfair in a vacuum but with four of the next five games coming against United (A), City (H), Chelsea (A) and Liverpool (A) anyone you own on the defensive end is essentially going to be useless until Halloween.

Going forward, Walters and Kightly both have decent shot totals and remain in the mix in that ~6.0-7.0m price bracket. The rest of the team is going to potentially get a bit more crowded with the arrivals of Edu and Adam though in all honesty the likes of Cameron, Whelan and Whitehead were hardly attractive options so any new blood is probably for the best.

Sunderland
Mignolet, Gardner, Cuellar, O'Shea, Colback, Johnson, Larsson, Cattermole, McClean, Sessegnon, Fletcher
Subs: Westwood, Campbell, Kilgallon, Ji, Meyler, Bramble, Saha

We've seen a couple of changes in this side with Fletcher and Johnson coming in at the end of the transfer window but it remains a fairly predictable side and one which has good potential going forward. No one from the midfield has really stood out yet (admittedly in just two games) but there is definitely upside here with Sessegnon, Larsson, Johnson and McClean all showing enough over the past year or so to be ownable given their respective price tags. Given that he's the most widely held of the midfielders (7.4%) it's worth noting that Larsson took up a deep role this week, reminiscent of that played by Abou Diaby or Tom Cleverly in a 4-2-3-1. This doesn't necessarily preclude all fantasy success but with Johnson and McClean deployed ahead of him on the wings and Sessegnon pushing way up to be just off Fletcher, he clearly he has makings of too many 'hockey assists' and not enough actual fantasy points.

As for Fletcher, he carried on right where he left off with Wolves, converting shots on goal at an alarming rate. I wouldn't suggest he will continue to convert every shot he takes, but if he gets chances there's no reason to doubt he'll convert a good proportion of them and given his job security, he brings an interesting combination of valuable traits that few forwards under 8.0m have.

Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Williams, Chico, N Taylor, Dyer, Britton, de Guzman, Routledge, Michu, Graham
Subs: Tremmel, Tate, Shechter, Moore, Ki, Agustien, Davies

The big issue with this lineup is the injury to N Taylor, though with apologies to the man himself, it could actually give us a nice opportunity. Ben Davies came on to replace his fellow countryman and all in all did a decent job. Unless Swansea opt to play someone out of position, Davies should have first shot at the left back spot, with Michel Vorm confident he can hold onto it (okay, he's bound to say that but this does at least suggest it's his spot to lose). At 4.0m he will represent outstanding value for the foreseeable future and is an obvious target for anyone unlucky enough to own Taylor.

I'm somewhat scared of this turning into a P Cisse situation, where I forecast regression for a number of weeks but the odds continue to be defied. Michu now 4 goals from just 4 shots on target which, like Cisse last season, means he is either the greatest finisher in the history of the game, or, is due for some regression in the future. Even with regression he will be a valuable asset, as shown by his 8 total shots, but it's still worth noting that he likely remains a good, rather than elite, asset and you shouldn't feel obliged to rearrange your team to accommodate him.

Tottenham
Friedel, Walker, Gallas, Vertonghen, Assou-Ekotto, Livermore, Sandro, Lennon, Sigurdsson, Bale, Defoe
Subs: Cudicini, Huddlestone, Adebayor, Naughton, Dembele, Townsend, Caulker

This team will surely see changes next gameweek with Dembele, Adebayor and possibly Dempsey ready to slide into the side assuming they get through the international break unscathed. The former made a splash with a debut goal but in truth this was a poor Spurs display and didn't dispel any of my concerns about Villas-Boas' ability to make his players fit a workable system. Livermore and Sandro sat way too deep for a supposed top-four challenger at home to Norwich, though this was somewhat resolved when Dembele came on, who was given more license to push forward. Bale was afforded a very free role again and often drifted inside which in one way helps his fantasy value, yet may also hurt it as the team lost shape and cohesion on numerous occasions.

There's talent galore in this side with Adebayor, Bale, Sigurdsson and Dempsey all justifying our attention but it isn't clear how they will lineup and, perhaps more importantly, whether Villas-Boas can get the best out of any of them. The upcoming fixtures are still really good so it's tough to pass on particularly Bale who seems to be taking an even greater role in this offense this year, but with Hazard back this week and Cazorla coming off a big week I assume many a trigger finger will be itching.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, Olsson, McAuley, Ridgewell, Yacob, Morrison, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Long, Fortune.
Subs: Myhill, Rosenberg, Brunt, Gera, Odemwingie, Dawson, Jones

The lineup looks pretty settled for the most part, though we still have plenty questions marks over who will get the majority of minutes up top. Morrison is the only player in the front six I'd currently consider and he's already added 6 shots (2 on target) and 5 chances created to underline his prospects. The rest of the unit looks somewhat underwhelming, at least until Odemwingie or Lukaku can lock down a place in Clark's first eleven.

West Ham
Jaaskelainen, Demel, Reid, Collins, O'Brien, Noble, Diame, Nolan, Vaz Te, Taylor, Carroll
Subs: Henderson, Tomkins, Diarra, O'Neil, Maiga, Hall, Cole

Boy can Kevin Nolan finish. Cynics don't want to hear it, but of all the midfielders who hover just off a front man, there are few who are so natural in front of goal than the former Bolton man. I was hopeful the arrival of Carroll might help this team take it to the next level but with him out indefinitely with a bad hamstring tear, it's as you were for the Hammers. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes I'm not sure anyone other than Nolan is ownable for now, unless Maiga or Cole can emerge as a threat up front or Vaz Te/Taylor can improve their end product.

Defensively West Ham remain a decent spot start option, particularly given the availability of Demel and (McCartney when fit) for 4.0m.

Wigan
Al Habsi, Ramis, Caldwell, Figueroa, Boyce, McArthur, McCarthy, Beausejour, Kone, Di Santo, Maloney
Subs: Pollitt, Jones, Crusat, Watson, Gomez, Boselli, Miyaichi

Wigan appear to be committed to the 5-3-2 and it's presenting an interesting opportunity for Emerson Boyce who is classified as a defender but is playing a very advanced wing back role. I'm not sure I'm convinced though, as his price tag pushes him into the range of starters from legitimate defensive teams which I just don't see Wigan as. Offensive points are great but they should be a bonus to an existing skill set, not the sole reason for investment.

Offensively, Maloney has quickly registered on the radar thanks to his decent assist potential (6 chances created) and penalty duties this week. Against Stoke he took up a very advanced role, often forming a front three with Di Santo and Kone, leading all Wigan players in touches in the final third of the field. Wigan don't have tremendous upside but Maloney comes with a great price tag and apparent job security which when added with the set piece duties makes him a very interesting prospect. There aren't many sub-6.0m options around who I'd take ahead of the Wigan man right now.

Friday, August 31, 2012

Gameweek 3 reader questions

A couple of general points before we dig into the questions. First, apologies for not getting to one of these last week. I was behind on getting the site to a reasonable place before the season and have been playing catchup since. Regular service should now resume. Second, thanks for all the kind comments on the blog. I'm glad my ramblings help some of you make your weekly decisions and maybe provide a bit of entertainment along the way. Finally, I got a number of responses about my question about naming 'assisting the assist' and I'm ashamed to say I'd never heard the term 'hockey assist' despite living in Canada. Anyway, that's perfect, so from now on all those defense splitting passes which earn Mata zero points will be known as hockey assists, or perhaps hA.

Onto the questions:

Alex
Dembele is going to Tottenham afterall. To me that makes him a viable option on a better team at a reduced price. I feel like he will be in the starting line up soon. What is your new opinion of him now that the this trade seems inevitable?

From the several times I have seen Fulham over the past few years, Dembele is generally a player who has impressed and this looks like a good capture for Spurs. I had some concerns about where exactly he will play, but digging a bit deeper into his past performances and talking with smarter people than me, he has been deployed in that central role on numerous occasions for Fulham and brings some defensive ability (though probably not to the level of Modric). Like the linked article suggests, I don't think Dembele can really be played in that midfield-two against the league's best sides but, in the same way that Valencia gets the most minutes at United because of his defensive play, Dembele could steal some minutes on the right wing because of his responsibility at the back.

If he gets minutes though, will he be a fantasy success? I'd say he can be, but more in the vein of Alex Song or vintage Essien than an elite fantasy option. At 6.0m there would be value in those numbers though, particularly if he can also get some minutes further up the field (the chance of that was just reduced by the surprising Dempsey signing though). I was overly excited by the Allen deal then found him simply sat too deep so far to effect the fantasy points column, but Dembele's prospects look slightly rosier. Still, I see him more of an excellent 5th midfielder than a great every week starter.

Gummi
1. What's your take on West Brom's Morrison? He has 4 goal attempts, 3 chances created and a buttload of crosses, partly because of set pieces, in the two games. I've been impressed by Clarke's West Brom.

2. Even if Ferguson doesn't play Rafael in the big games he's cheap enough (5.5) to comfortably sit on the bench once in a while. It's the home games against lower placed sides that I would rather he not be benched (he's in my team, obviously). I even think he could be afforded a shot at claiming the right-back spot as his own this season.

Agree on Morrison and West Brom - a pretty good looking team which suddenly has some upside offensively. At 6.0m he is good rather than great value but if the fixtures work out well he should make a good investment at some point this year.

I am starting to think the same about Rafael - that he might only be rested against the best teams. My only question is Phil Jones who I like quite a bit. Carrick and Cleverly have both been decent this year and with Scholes and Anderson waiting in the wings, I'm not sure that Jones gets a tonne of minutes in midfield. That means he is likely to vulture minutes at right back and given that he's better defensively than Rafael yet also offers some value going forward I'm not sure how those minutes shake out. This United defense is really hard to predict right now and given that they haven't looked great, it isn't necessary to take too many risks to get a piece of it. He's certainly an option but there's still risk there.

Peter B
What are your thoughts on Nani. Is he on the out? I'm thinking of replacing him with Kagawa, Hazard or Cazorla?

I still believe that Nani has a place in Ferguson's thoughts and remains ahead of Young in the pecking order. However, he is clearly below Valencia at this point and with Welbeck and van Persie also able to shift out wide, minutes are going to be hard to come by. I'm far from ready to write Nani off (many did the same after Young's arrival last year) and with Rooney out I like him to have some success, but long term he is a big risk which might not be worth taking. Those three new arrivals you named have been mighty impressive and should all be strongly considered for fantasy consideration (indeed I am debating whether or not to build my team around all three). Hazard has grabbed the headlines but Cazorla actually has the best underlying stats of any midfielder to date and also probably comes with the lowest risk of rotation. Chelsea have the hardest fixtures of the three so Hazard isn't the automatic pick some are suggesting, but it's tough to bet against him when he has simply been outstanding.

Charl Du Plessis
I've still got Aguero and I'm sitting with 3 Chelsea players (including Mata) and 1 Reading player (Shorey), meaning I've got 5 players who aren't playing. Is it worth using my wildcard, or should I rather just offer 4pts and have a full starting XI for this GW, then re-evaluate my options next week when Chelsea are playing and Aguero is nearing a return?

This is a tough one. I generally caution against the 4 pointers but it's a shame to burn your wildcard if you're generally happy with the rest of your team. Aguero looks like he could return after the international break so isn't a must sell anymore, though it still hurts to have so much cash riding the pine. I think I'd avoid using the wildcard and pay to ditch Mata as (a) assuming the player you target plays you only need a further 2 points to offset your fee and (b) at this point in this season he doesn't look he can match the fantasy output of some of the other elite options. Short term I would target Bale or Kagawa but if you're looking long term Cazorla should also be in your thoughts.

dnivy
Having Friedel and Green, I'm risking having no 'keepers from next gameweek, given that Lloris transfers to Spurs. Is it worth using a wildcard simply to change 'keepers? (Would also use it to get rid of Tierney and N'Zogbia, and transfer in Hazard -- but apart from that my team is looking good).

Again, I'd save my wildcard and in this case I'd actually be willing to pay the 4 points too. It's a shame to take points off the table but even the worst keepers have a good shot at 3 points each week with the save points they get and you'll need to make a move soon as Friedel is now benched and Green is a very shaky option. I'm not crazy about the 5.5m options but assuming you don't have any spare cash to nab De Gea at 6.0m, Vorm and his upcoming fixtures looks like a fine investment.

x00x
I think if you're wildcarding this early you must find price increases to compensate for the lack of flexibility you'll have later in the season when your opponents can reshuffle.

I've yet to be totally convinced that having a bucketload of cash at the end of the season is necessary, but you're right that making a bit of extra money can help you get a slight edge. That said, I still personally only use potential price rises as a tie breaker, preferring to target players I genuinely believe in (who, if successful will see price rises anyway).

One minor tip for future reference though, if you are playing your wildcard, be sure to make that decision early and as soon as the gameweek begins buy everyone whose price looks set to rise in the week as you might make a couple of hundred grand out of it, selling them for whoever you really want on Friday evening/Saturday morning.

Scheister
Vertonghen or Vermaelen? Which do you think will score more goals? Keep more clean sheets? Verm is proven in the EPL, will Verts even start every game (he is cheaper though)?

I tend to shy away from predicting defender goals as very few players have shown an ability to generate offensive points with any consistency. Vermaelen and Baines are two players I often cite as exceptions to that general premis, though they are priced so high that any upside in their offensive ability is already paid for. Arsenal have been very good at the back so far this year which leads me to pick him over Vertonghen, whose Spurs side have been only okay and has yet to show much of that offensive ability we've read about. The sticking point though is that price tag. If it was me, I'd just grab Jenkinson or Gallas and use my 1.5m elsewhere but if you're dead set on one of the pair I like Vermaelen more.

Andrew
I wonder your thoughts on De Gea. I think you touched on it in your lineup lessons, but he's another big-ticket player who hasn't performed to expectations so far this year.

De Gea was an omission from my 'players to stick with' piece as I very much believe United will be fine at the back this year and that, at 6.0m, the premium to grab De Gea over the likes of Vorm and Howard is worth it. I'm playing my wildcard this week but will stick with De Gea who has a decent run of fixtures and will shortly welcome back a wealth of talent in front of him. Vorm has been excellent and Swansea's fixtures are solid but I'll still take De Gea with the 0.5m premium.

Pulma
So is it a WC for you as I see. I would like to ask you how many hits are too many? I am currently in a position where I would need a 12pt hit to field a starting 11 do you advise this or should I use the WC?

Hmmm, 12 points is alot. I'd say it partly depends on why you are so limited this week. If your players are injured/sold/benched then the 4 pointers hurt less. If it's just a case of owning too many Chelsea players, I'd more more tempted to maybe take a 4 point on someone like Mata but just accept a crappy week to hold onto the likes of Hazard. If you're happy with 11 or 12 of your team's players then the wildcard seems premature but if you have players out this week who you also doubt long term, then fire away.

Tones
I'm holding Siggy and Silva (as well as Carzola, Michu, Snodgrass) and based on manager comments both seem risky for minutes at least short term, despite good matchups. Should I ride it out or replace one? Kawaga, Bale, Hazard are some replacements that come to mind, but I'll want to play all 5 this week as I'm holding Torres.

First off, that's a hell of a midfield: great job. I am convinced that Silva will play a substantial amount of minutes over the coming weeks, but I would concede that Mancini has surprised me before. The arrival of Maicon is a further complication as a 5-3-2 / 3-5-2 system now looks more likely which pits Nasri and Silva in direct competition for that one advanced midfield spot (assuming Yaya and a defensive midfielder take the other two). I'm still confident in Silva but if you have your doubts the aforementioned Kagawa, Hazard, Bale and Cazorla are all great options who are tough to pick between. I like Bale and Kagawa for the short term more but over the next 10 weeks or so it's really hard not to say Hazard but I might suggest Cazorla thanks to his underlying stats and security. So close though.

Sigurdsson is a risk with Dempsey and Dembele coming in but with van der Vaart heading the other way I see no reason to panic just yet. Dembele should slot into the centre is most games to replace Modric and I'd venture that when he's pushed forward it will be to replace the defensively-shy Lennon against the league's better teams. Where Dempsey fits in is less clear and so I wouldn't be thrilled about buying either but if you liked Sigurdsson a week ago I'd be okay with holding on to him for now until we at least know what system Villa-Boas will play.

stooshermadness
Looking at Yaya Toure (big fan of Yaya and great FF points/min played), Jarvis (the Carroll move makes Jarvis a lot more attractive and Jarvis has great FF history - past seasons of 142 and 133 points), Pienaar (looks a new player since his return to Everton), Kagawa (the flavor of the day, but good attacking numbers too), Valencia (excellent FF point-getter) or Cazorla (maybe get on the bus before it takes off?). I am leaning to Yaya, both becuase its a good move as a 1-off for this GW only or as a long-term move. Thoughts ?

As I've said above I'm not sure I can pick between Kagawa and Cazorla right now but I'd put them both ahead of Valencia in the short term (let's see if he can avoid right back duty for a sustained period). The difference between that pair and Yaya is close as while I still worry about Yaya being deployed too deep to pickup points, when he's given free reign he delivers with great consistency. Javi Garcia and Rodwell give City good options to play in the defensive roll which means Yaya's positioning should remain fairly comparable to last season. He lacks the upside of a Cazorla or Kagawa but I agree that if you want to grab someone to hold down the fort until the dust settles at Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and the Emirates, Yaya is a reliable pickup to plug a big hole.

Ton the Don
Should I drop Cisse and/or Suarez in favor of Torres and Berbatov? With Berbatov be a good value? And who should I look to upgrade the midfield with? Toure seems dangerous in light of De Jong leaving.

I still have faith in Cisse (assuming you mean Papiss) and Suarez to be solid this year but with their lofty price tags I believe we can do better. Tevez is the obvious pick, though he isn't a total lock to play with Aguero coming back soon and Balotelli/Dzeko waiting in the wings. Torres has been better this year for sure, but be careful as he has only hit the target twice this season with both shots going for goals. You have to like his 8 total shots but he's going to need to be a bit sharper or the regression monster will come a knocking.

Berbatov jumps close to the top of my monitor list but he will remain there until he proves his fitness and we are sure he will leap ahead of Petric on the depth chart. You have to think he was all but promised first team football to facilitate the move but at 6.9m he only represents a slight discount from Ba who brings a tremendous balance of upside and security.

I think Toure should continue to play in the slightly more advanced of the two central midfield roles with Javi Garcia and Rodwell each able to play the more defensive role. As for whether Yaya deserves to be owned over the more attacking options from other teams, see the earlier responses for my (non committal  answer.

Bryan McKenna
Worth taking a hit for Defoe to Ba tonight? My free transfer is tied up with VDV to Bale at the moment.

Defoe probably isn't going to start this week so if you've no subs to come in this becomes a close call. If you have any subs who are likely to play I would avoid taking the hit as you're banking on Ba to score just to break even. If however Defoe's absence would leave you with 10 men, Newcastle's favourable fixture might just make this worth a shot.

Scheister
Great post as always, thanks for the help! Makes me want a Newcastle defender on my team, but I haven’t watched a lot of their games. Who do you think is guaranteed a spot? S. Taylor? Simpson?

Newcastle have one of the more predictable lineups around with the whole back four looking fairly settled (Santon-Coloccini-S Taylor-Simpson). I have some concerns that R Taylor will get the odd game at full back so given the respective price tags I like S Taylor here, who also brings a nice threat from set pieces.

Gameweek Three Preview



We are still limited to subjective views on the captain picks for the week as stats for this season are too few while stats for last season are outdated for most players. Rather than arbitrarily focus on just one of two players, I've added some rough notes for all the main contenders below, including an overall summary of where my thinking is leading me for the week.

In terms of playing the fixture, it's City players - by a distance - who look like the best targets and with Aguero sidelined it has become a little easier to focus our attention on the key men:

Carlos Tevez . . . all but guaranteed the start with Aguero sidelines . . . looks fit and healthy and has earned the praise of Mancini over the past couple of weeks; doubts regarding his place in this squad are probably over . . . 2 goals in 2 games so far this season . . . (comparatively) budget price tag means Rooney or Aguero owners can bring him in and free up cash to use elsewhere (most likely on one of the number of emerging star midfielders) . . . 8 shots, 4 on target give him rates which should allow for sustainable success going forward.

David Silva . . . looked okay against Southampton but missed penalty which gave him 0 points for the week . . . unlikely to get another chance from the spot with Balotelli, Tevez et al around . . . rested last week so is highly likely to retake his place in the team . . . 4 chances created and 4 shots in just 90 minutes equals or exceeds all other elite midfielders on a per minute basis.

Yaya Toure . . . not as flashy as his teammates, but consistently delivers returns, particularly when allowed to push upfield . . . De Jong could be leaving the club which could indicate that Yaya will be stuck in a deeper role more often (though this is partly offset by the arrival of Rodwell) . . . has the manager's faith to help the team when needing a goal late, as oppose to players like Silva/Nasri who are often subbed like-for-like . . . 7 chances created leads all City players to date

Samir Nasri . . . looked much better this year than last . . . at risk of being rotated if Mancini brings in another forward like Balotelli for the home fixture (possible) . . . threat from set pieces has been significant already this year . . . 5 chances created and 4 shots only just exceeds Silva's totals but in almost double the minutes his price tag is still an issue.

After City, it's local rivals United and Spurs who look well positioned for success this week. These two teams are convenient to discuss together given the question marks raised after a number of their players' roles over the past couple of weeks:

Robin van Persie . . . more valuable now that Rooney is injured in that van Persie will now be sure to play up top and won't be eased into the team slowly . . . could assume penalty duties, particularly in Rooney's absence . . . only manager 1 shot this past week, but took it beautifully . . . sustained success in the short term will mean him gelling into the side quickly . . . tough to justify his price tag over, say, Tevez, but still has the potential to lead the league in points.

Shinji Kagawa . . . Ferguson has raved about him so far, also indicating he believes Kagawa can pickup double digit goals from midfield . . . Rooney's absence for a couple of weeks not only solidifies Kagawa's place now, but also gives him more time to impress and lock down future minutes in that lucrative role . . . 5 chances created and 4 shots in 160 minutes are solid totals which still have room to grow as he settles in.

Antonio Valencia . . . better player than fantasy option . . . potential to be deployed at right back has declined with Rafael looking decent last week and Young now sidelined for a couple of weeks . . . 14 crosses and 3 created chances this past week while playing in midfield are very encouraging . . . with the other injuries in the side Valencia looks like a safe bet to take a more advanced role and this could be the best chance in a while to get on the bandwagon early.

Emmanuel Adebayor . . . should be an asset at some point this season as he is one of a handful of players who in the right situation can simply be played every week without fear of being totally shut down by the better teams . . . Defoe seems to be an afterthought and thus regular minutes seem assured once he gets his fitness (this week is probably too soon to bank on that).

Gareth Bale . . . started quietly in terms of returns but his underlying stats still look good . . . 13 crosses, 6 chances created and 7 shots all tell the tale of a player very much involved in the team's offence again . . . addition of Adebayor, Dembele and possibly Moutinho will add some much needed edge to this team without stealing minutes from Bale so his place in the side looks stronger than ever . . . great fixtures coming up, starting this week, makes Bale a perfect buy option for those looking to ditch a benched Chelsea player or stuttering starter.

We also have the players whose team may not come with the almost inevitable goals you get with one of the big sides in the league, but individually they account for a large enough percentage of their team's success to warrant consideration here.

Demba Ba / Papiss Cisse . . . based on prior year data the fixture this week is good, but based on what we've seen to date from Villa, the fixture could be excellent . . . not too much to split between this pair hence why Ba looks to be much better value . . . 6 (3 on target) shots for Ba and 4(1) for Cisse backup this point so far . . . at just 7.6m Ba can be a very good second striker or an amazing third front man and should be a strong buy candidate for anyone needing to free up cash and currently stuck with one of the pricier but less effective forwards

Hatem Ben Arfa . . . not great stats so far from Ben Arfa with just 2 chances created and 3(1) shots . . . 18 touches in the final third is also a concern, as is his average position, which is about as deeper as it ever was last season . . . Spurs have played two tough games thus far though with the fixtures very much opening up from here on . . . still represents a risk at this point if we're talking about captain duty though.

Michu . . . great success so far, looking sharp in front of goal, adding a level of composure rarely seen at his position . . . some caveats to be found in his underlying stats with 24 final third touches and just 3 shots on target (all hitting the back of the net) suggesting his that not only is his current level of production unsustainable, but the fall may be sharp unless he can get a bit more involved . . . 26% ownership makes him tricky to deal with as every goal leaves you further behind the pack, but grabbing him essentially wipes out one spot of 7m from your team as you just break even with everyone else . . . underlying stats don't put me off owning him (indeed I liked him in the preseason) but captain status is a bridge too far for now.

Finally, we have the elite names whose fixture isn't overly kind for the week. If you want to 'play the fixture' stay away, if you believe in form and class trumping everything, dig a little deeper:

Santi Cazorla . . . hasn't made the splash in the headlines like Hazard but the process has been just as impressive with only the end product differing (largely due to more clinical finishing from Torres) . . . underlying stats are off the charts with 10(3) shots and 9 chances created both leading all midfielders . . . very safe option in terms of minutes with few legit options to take regular minutes away from him . . . if you believe anyone in this Arsenal team will finish chances, Cazorla has Fabregas like potential yet is still relatively unfancied (8% ownership) . . . Liverpool still represents a fairly tough game and we may not have seen Arsenal play well enough to start captaining the Spaniard

Luis Suarez . . . one of the players who consistently messes up any shots per goal formulae, generally, as they say, buying plenty of lottery tickets to try and win the prize (league leading 13 shots already this term) . . . better finisher than people credit him with, though it must be accepted that output is going to be erratic . . . Liverpool have looked better in possession and should only improve as Rodgers' system is embedded . . . genuine threat from set pieces is a plus over many of his rivals . . . tough and price tag still make him tough to own and/or captain.

Final thoughts
Regular readers will know I skew conservative with many decisions, including the awarding of my weekly armband. Players like Michu and Adebayor can help separate you from the pack but your 'wins' are generally remembered (and retold) more than the more numerous losses and thus I tend to prefer the more boring but reliable picks from the elite players in the league. If you believe in the data even a little, City make an irresistible play this week and that will likely lead to Tevez and his 39% ownership earning the captain's nod most often this week. Silva is also a very strong option for me and having had the week off last week is probably a touch safer to start here (Balotelli and Dzeko are still lurking in the wings remember).

If you're scared of Mancini's penchant for rotation, or don't own any City players, the bridesmaids for the week are Bale and Kagawa, both all but locked into very good sides who enjoy good fixtures. They probably lack the upside of Tevez and Silva but they also bring a touch more security so make nice options for those with an aversion to those in sky-blue.

I've been promising a reader question column for two weeks now, but I assure you one is due this afternoon (eastern time) so fire the questions/comments below or @plfantasy and I'll get to them all before this week's deadline.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Gameweek 3 Preview

Two weeks is a long time in both fantasy and reality. If it goes well you could being talked about as title contenders with the world at your feet (Mancini) but if things go wrong, even the strongest of resumes will be ignored (Wenger). Hopefully you find yourself in the former camp, but if not, don't panic, decide who needs to go then start trying to rack up some points, starting with this week.

Clean Sheet Rankings
It's always tricky at this point in the season to determine how much attention to pay to prior year and how much to focus on the current season. I have avoided the tough decision by simply adding/averaging the data to give hybrid values. The GPG conceded will therefore be over the 19 home/away games from last year plus this year's single game while clean sheets/ failed to score numbers are simply added together:
[Defensive Pick vs Opponent - goals per game conceded (clean sheets kept - opponent failed to score)]
  1. Liverpool vs Bolton - 0.93 GP (9 - 7)

  2. Aston Villa vs Wolves - 0.95 (7 - 7)

  3. Chelsea vs Noriwch - 0.97 (11 - n/a)

  4. Blackburn vs Everton - 0.98 (7 - 7)

  5. Swansea vs Sunderland - 1.00 (n/a - 8)

  6. Newcastle vs Fulham - 1.15 (5 - 7)

  7. Everton @ Blackburn - 1.15 (3 - 1)

  8. QPR @ Wigan Athletic - 1.20 (n/a - 2)

  9. West Brom vs Stoke - 1.20 (2 - 10)

  10. Tottenham vs Man City - 1.23 (5 - 6)

  11. Man Utd vs Arsenal - 1.28 (11 - 3)

  12. Wigan vs QPR - 1.36 (3 - n/a)

  13. Man City @ Tottenham - 1.39 (6 - 4)

  14. Sunderland @ Swansea - 1.44 (6 - n/a)

  15. Stoke @ West Brom - 1.55 (3 - 4)

  16. Fulham @ Newcastle - 1.58 (5 - 4)

  17. Wolves @ Aston Villa - 1.65 (2 - 4)

  18. Bolton @ Liverpool - 1.75 (1 - 2)

  19. Arsenal @ Man Utd - 2.00 (5 - 0)

  20. Norwich @ Chelsea - 2.10 (n/a - 2)

Attacking Rankings

Chelsea (2.10 GPG) - having once given us two of the most reliable players of the past few years in Drogba and Lampard, this team is suddenly devoid of guaranteed fantasy talent. If you own Lampard or Torres then I guess if you don't captain them this week you never will but both have a huge risk of coming in with a two pointer, not really felt in prior years. Norwich have done okay against two weaker sides this year but this will be a good game for both teams to see where they are. I'd prefer not to be starting players in a game we are designating a test but the appeal is there and I'd certainly be tempted by Torres, Lampard or even Malouda this week.

Man Utd (2.00 GPG) - it's surprising to see United this high given their strong opponent, considering that this data is based largely on prior year. But the reality is that Arsenal did not travel too well last year (1.47 GPG, 8th) while United were simply sensational at home (2.58 GPG, 1st). With Koscielny a doubt for this one, the defense looks as thin as the midfield unit and you would imagine United will be able to breach the back line a couple of times. It's really tough to look past Rooney here (indeed I'm fairly sure that's the direction I will go in) but I think Young has just about shown enough to play his way into contention though I would suggest than Sagna is a step or two above either of the full backs he has faced so far this year.

Liverpool (1.75 GPG) - the biggest question is whether Suarez plays, a question not helped by his surprising inclusion in tonight's Carling Cup game. With his rest at the weekend, one assumed he was still a little fatigued from the Copa America, so quite why he was needed against Exeter is beyond me. The risk of Suarez sitting again would not deter me from ownership but it might from handing him the armband. The concern I have is that if he sits, he still probably comes on for 20 minutes or so at the end, thus preventing your VC from stepping up. If we get confirmation that he will play (or is nearly certain to) by Friday then he jumps up the rankings and could be argued to be alongside anyone this week.

Elsewhere, your options are probably limited to Suarez's up front partner, who also scored in the Cup midweek. I've been a little higher on how Carroll has played so far this year than most and if I owned neither Liverpool strikers but wanted Suarez long term, I might well buy Carroll for this week, moving to Suarez a bit later when his place in the side in safer. If Suarez plays, the previous paragraph looks foolish but fantasy is about taking calculated risks so be sure you like your odds before giving Suarez the 'C' this week.

Man City (1.39 GPG) - not the best fixture for the league's hot team and if you held off buying Aguero last week, I'd probably do so again this week, with Rooney, Carroll and Bent all enjoying better fixtures and apparent guaranteed minutes. On the off chance you don't own any other good options this week, I'd take Silva as the man to back from this unit given his ability to contribute fantasy points from a number of categories but I'm lower on him than I was in the previous couple of GWs.

Elsewhere, Darren Bent (Villa 1.65 GPG) has a great fixture once again and looks to be the best pick from a non big-five team. Bent scored just 2 of his 7 goals for Villa last season at home but he was able to add to that last week. Wolves haven't been great away from home but they did win the corresponding fixture 1-0 last season and have looked solid at the back so far this year.

Reader Questions
Alex - Wanted your opinion on who's a better buy at this point: Klasnic, Fletcher, or Long.
On pure ability I would probably take Fletcher but his fixtures look pretty tough in the medium term which is a big factor for a mid-range forward. Klasnic's fixtures are better than they look on paper as they get the majority of the tough teams at home, but the upside is still significantly below West Brom's. If you are looking for an every week starter, it's tough to pick between any of this trio, but if you would consider rotating them, then Long has the most upside fixtures in which you would definitely start him.

Bobby Reds - I still cant decide between Brunt & Jarvis for the long term though
Another close call and again I would defer to the disparity in strength of schedules to make my decision. With Odemwingie ready to return to the West Brom lineup, their team looks fairly good and Brunt should once again be at the heart of a lot of their success. That 6.0m range is starting to look fairly attractive in midfield.

JS Shadow - are you going to post when would be the appropriate time to use the wild-card and how I should use it.
I will probably look at this in and around GW8. Normally teams may wish to use their WC earlier but the free transfers in GW2 allowed a lot to get rid of all their preseason mistakes. In the meantime, some thoughts on the issue from last season can be found here.

Shedboy - which is better? Torres/Aguero and Odemwingie - Rooney and Klasnic
Rooney is the safest elite player right now, though Aguero is probably right on his shoulder when the fixtures are equal. For this week Aguero doesn't look like a great play and Odemwingie may not be fully fit so the latter pairing looks to be preferable. Long term, you might think about moving Rooney to Aguero to free up some cash which brings Zamora, K Davies, Rodallega and Saha, among others into play. If you can spare an extra 1.0m, you could also try a combo of Suarez/Bent/Hernandez/Carroll which would be very interesting.

Amtosh - Would you turf Torres for Aguero, considering Torres has Norwich at home and aguero has spurs away?
I wouldn't be buying Torres at this point but if you own him you presumably did so with the intention of holding him for at least GW2 and GW3 and that still appears to be the logical move here. Aguero has the talent to score against any opponent but Chelsea are usually very good at home and the Norwich fixture is just too good to pass on. Using another transfer only locks in Torres' lack of production so far.

Ryan - I've just been looking at my attacking options for my team and realised i have no attacking contributions from liverpool, arsenal, chelsea or tottenham. Do you think this is a wise choice?
It's hard to say in a vacuum but I wouldn't say it's necessarily an issue. I personally don't hold anyone from these teams either due to a combination of tough fixtures and, honestly, a lack of fantasy options from the London clubs. Chelsea's team is totally up in the air with the arrival of Lukaku and Mata and the ongoing Drogba/Torres dilemma while Arsenal would appear to have taken several steps back from last year. I like Bale for Spurs but I'd like to see Spurs show a bit more before I invest there.

D - I have Zamora, Alex, Moses, and O'Hara and I want to trade them all. What do you prefer between Boswinga/Cole and Odem/Long? 
I would probably bail on Alex at this point as you would imagine that Luiz retakes that starting spot this week. Zamora, Moses and O'Hara all have value so while you might consider looking elsewhere, you're in a good position in that with all three starting you have the ability to change your team over time. I'm still a bit uneasy about Bosingwa and you have to accept the risk of him being benched sometimes but he seems to have won favor over Ivanovic, and at worst it would seem to he will play against the weaker sides. For safety I'd take Luiz (provided he starts this week) but Bosingwa's upside is unparalleled. Right now I'd take Long as he's shown enough in his positioning and finishing ability to suggest he can succeed in the Premier League while Odemwingie is still not fit and struggled to get in the game last week when coming on. Perhaps do Alex to Bosingwa now and then wait to see if Odemwingie can show some form before choosing your West Brom forward.

@fplsavant - Seeing as Richards just got an assist for Silva's goal, do you think its time I consider him, or is Zabaleta a threat?
He seems to have moved into the safe category now, and while he may suffer the odd rest now again for Zabaleta you'd guess that (a) this happens less than with Clichy and Kolarov and (b) occurs when City face tougher sides (given Zabaleta's more conservative approach). He still isn't as safe as Kompany but his upside could very well push him into position as the best City defender.

@thatbensonguy - Can I why has Arsene Wenger waited til now to make enquiries? He was always losing Nas and Fab! He could have checked the market!
Not fantasy related but I'm a sucker for all things Wenger. I always defend Arsene and the criticism he receives is ridiculous but I agree with you on this one. I will never go along with the notion that he should be chasing Downing for 20m but he needs to at least be looking at someone. It will be a huge shame if Arsenal fail to strengthen in this window, and it would be indefensible for Wenger. I still trust he knows what he's doing but he's currently looking as unprepared as he ever has.

@JennineBorrow93 and @RonnieLeclere790 - as they're the same price, over the next few weeks do you go for Nani or Young?
Right now it has to be Young. I'm not ready to give up on Nani for the season yet and I'd like to see how the side gels with Hernandez set to return but the team is clearly focusing play down Young's side of the field and his set piece duties put him over the edge.

@JamesGall93 - I don't know who to pick in goal this week, Vorm or Al-Habsi?
It's a close call and the stats suggest Al-Habsi has the edge. Swansea look like they may have a better defensive unit than Wigan but QPR appear to be a weaker side than Sunderland. The stats suggest Al-Habsi has the better shot at a clean sheet and both keepers bring good save totals to help give some value if they do concede. If you're playing the rotation strategy you need to trust the system so I'd take Al-Habsi.

@NikosEllinas - Think Odemwingie will start? Is it time for K. Davies to Odem, have 1 min in the bank.
I wouldn't be thrilled about bringing Odemwingie in until he proves his fitness but with Davies facing such a tough fixture your hand is forced a bit. If we can get any kind of assurance he will start this week I would probably role the dice with the West Brom forward but without further notice take the points with Davies.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Gameweek 3 Diary

A great afternoon of action ahead with six games this afternoon including fantasy favourites United, City and Arsenal. We're expecting big afternoons for City and Arsenal though I am sure Wolves and Pompey will have different ideas:

15:08 Early chances for United and the backlash is definitely on the cards. United have suffered alot of early criticism which is surely an overreaction to losing one game. Similar criticism was levelled at Ferguson's men last year after the opening day draw with Newcastle but the season ended pretty well in the end for them I seem to recall. From a fantasy point of view however, United are definitely the weakest they have ever been. The defense has suffered through injuries but should prove to be a top 3 unit when Vidic and co are fit. The midfield is devoid of any stud prospects with Valencia having the talent but not the price tag (8.5m) to be worth considering right now. The arrival of Owen has cost doubt over the value of Berbatov while Rooney doesn't have the past goalscoring heights to be worth 11m.

15:11 Beattie has gone off injured which is a real blow for those using a 3 cheap-striker rotation policy. He will be replaced by Kitson.

15:18 As expected Arsenal and City both take the lead through Diaby and Adebayor respectively. Tevez gets the assist for City while Eduardo nabs it for the Gunners

15:21 Blackburn lead at Sunderland through Givet after a corner from Gamst Pedersen which has been causing the Mackems all kind of problems. At 6.5m he could be worth a look if he continues this form.

15:23 Diaby gets his second of the game and thrusts himself into the minds of fantasy owners across the world. For 5.4m he could be a decent player, and already looks to be more attacking minded than fellow 'holding' players Macherano and Mikel. I think there is a good selection of midfielders in the 5m-6.5m range and the selection of these players could be key in the season's success. Most players will have Lampard, Gerrard or both which will largely cancel everyone else out. It is the selection of the other squad men that will allow you to differentiate your team. I like the potential of Jimenez and Cana but the reliability of a Diaby or Mascherano must not be underestimated.

15:31 Kenwyne Jones opens his account for the season, which I must say I predicted in the weekly preview. I like him and Bent to both top double figures for the season with Jones liable for extra bonus points due to his dominant Drogba like style. Bent is probably the better pick but don't sleep on Jones just yet. Malbranque made it again is should be considered a great pick as he dictates the play for a good team for just 6m.

15:37 Pompey pull one back which will devastate Arsenal defender owners who will have pencilled this one in as a clean sheet. Kaboul has got the goal after leaping over Almunia to head in to the empty net.

15:45 Pretty quiet first half with not too many fantasy points for recognised players around. Congratulations if you have Diaby but hopefully the second halves will improve.

16:08 Free kick from Arshavin turned in by Gallas who gets his third goal in as many games. I am going to do some analysis on Gallas to see if his goal scoring threat is likely to be a trend all season. At 6.5m Arsenal's defense is probably not good enough to make him good value but if he can add goalscoring to his resume then Gallas might be a nice premium defensive option. I am delighted to see Arshavin continue to get the assists as he looks to deliver on my prediction of him joining Lampard and Gerrard in the big three of fantasy football. I have sold him for my team due to the bye week/United/City fixture list but he'll be back in week 6 for the distant future.

16:12 Sunderland in front at the Stadium of Light through Kenwyne Jones for his second of the afternoon. I wish I'd taken my advice and brought the big man in for this one. He is a great option going forward and could be a top 10-15 striker by season end.

16:15 Goal for United through Wayne Rooney who continues his good early season form. Valencia picks up the assist against his former team which was inevitable really. Rooney gets his 100th goal for the Reds and continues to challenge my view that he is overpriced at 11m.

16:16 Koumas almost creates an instant reply crossing to Rodallega whose header is well saved by Foster. And then United counter attack and score their second through Dimitar who gets his first goal in nine games. A bit harsh on Wigan that one.

16:17 Goal at the KC and its gone to Hull, scored by Gilas with the assist from ALTIDORE. I am positively thrilled for the young American who I know has high expectations from his fans back home. He'd only just come on and he makes an instant impact, well done Jozy. Hull haven't won at home in 2009 and this will be a great chance to break that duck.

16:24 United get their third at Wigan with Rooney's shot deflected in but he should receive the credit. Once again, I may have to reconsider whether Rooney is overpriced or not, though after this display his price will surely rise further.

16:26 Arsenal get their fourth through Aaron Ramsey and Wenger's rotation policy is well and truly vindicated. The Gunners' squad is not considered to be one of the best in the league but if players like Ramsey, Song and Vela can step up then Arsenal may be title contenders. Just noticed that Ramsey was on for Fabregas who went off at half time, with the Guardian noting that he has 'picked up a knock'. More info to come when its known.

16:39 City can't kill the game off and this is the kind of game that top four teams pull away in (see United and Arsenal today). If they drop two points they will be devastated and they have no excuses with all that firepower up front. Aside from Adebayor and Ireland none of the other City midfield and forwards looks like viable fantasy options.

16:44 Michael Owen gets United's fourth and his first in competitive games for the reds. Quality finish from the English hitman who needed that after his poor display in midweek. The United front line waters are therefore muddied once again.

16:47 A couple of sides hanging on here, with backs to walls stuff for Hull, Sunderland and even the mighty City. Surely there will be a late goal somewhere, but where will it come? Ricketts almost scored against his old side as the Hull line drops deeper and deeper.

16:51 And the late goal comes at the DW stadium through Nani and the predicted backlash is complete. Perhaps talks of a United crisis were a touch premature. Wigan are still a decent side so don't read too much into this one but it is essential that we work out which United players to pick as this side have goals in them. City have hung on against Wolves after a solid performance from McCarthy's men. City had chances galore but couldn't convert and are another side whose fantasy stars are tough to predict. Its all over at the Stadium of Light and Diet Drogba's brace has secured the three points for the Mackems. Also a predicted, Birmingham-Stoke ends 0-0 so well done if you stuck your sub defenders in for that one.

That ends a decent day of fantasy action and I am pleased with United's clean sheet and delighted with Altidore's assist. Big day's for Kenwyne Jones, Rooney and Diaby while Arsenal underline their strength and depth by winning 4-1 with a weakened side. I'll be back later with a wrap up and analysis of today's action and then tomorrow with another three games worth of action.