Notebook Preview: Tottenham Hotspur

Looking back at last season

• Reputation as a high scoring team is not totally justified ranking just 10th at home with 1.58 GPG and 6th on the road (1.32 GPG).


• They did however only fail to score 8 times, a mark that tied for 4th best in the league


• Just 8 clean sheets on the season ranked 12th, without much dominance at home (5) or on the road (3).


• The defense substantially improved in the second half though with 7 clean sheets compared to just 1 in the first half. This was despite conceding the same number of goals in total, so it could be someone of a statistical trick rather than a marked improvement in tactics.


• Their 'keepers gave decent value last year ranking 11th in P90 and 8th in P$. Some of this value was derived from Cudicini's cheap minutes which will be gone this year with Friedel's arrival. 


• Defensive unit was actually more valuable on the road, ranking 8th in P90 (13th at home) and 3rd in P$ (11th at home). This is encouraging as it suggests Spurs defenders can be deployed every week


• Midfield gave good production (6th in P90) but failed to deliver great value (16th in P$) thanks to the high price tags of Van der Vaart, Modric and Bale. They also ranked 1st in bonus points awarded so be sure to monitor this situation under the new system in the early season if you opt for any of that trio.


• Up front the team really delivered very little with a 10th ranking in P90 and 16th in P$. If one player can take the initiative and play the majority of minutes they would be valuable but with 3 or 4 average players competing for one spot, it seems Van der Vaart is the only pick to open the season with up front.

Predicted lineup (4-4-1-1)
Gomes (5.5m), Assou Ekotto (5.0m), Dawson (5.5m), Gallas (5.0m), Corluka (5.5m), Bale (8.0), Modric (8.0m), Sandro (5.0m), Lennon (7.5m), Van der Vaart (10.0m), Defoe (8.5m)

There is pretty substantial depth across the whole back five, which makes picking who will start for sure rather tricky. The midfield looks more settled, especially in light of Pienaar's injury. There is good depth and I wouldn't bet Sandro will play every game, but the four fantasy relevant midfielders only really face a threat from Kranjcar and the odd game where Redknapp's goes two up top. Crouch probably fits the system more than Defoe but Crouch proved to be fairly ineffective last year and I would wager the job is Defoe's to lose.


Safest Picks
Benoit Assou-Ekotto . . . appears to be the only natural left sided defender available . . . logged the most minutes of all Spurs defenders last season (2569) . . . team averaged 1.3 GPG conceded when he played compared to 0.7 for King and 0.9 for Corluka . . . offers very little outside of clean sheets (0 goals and assists last season) . . . valued at 0.5m less than Dawson, Corluka and Walker making him somewhat more attractive . . . very little upside and should not be considered a long term starter, more a decent plug to open the season with until we know which cheaper teams are good

Rafael Van der Vaart . . . of players with at least 2000 minutes, only Nani and Berbatov had a better xP (254) . . . superb production in goals (13) and assists (9) which could have been higher with better fitness (xG 20, xA 14) . . . had a whole off season to prepare so fitness should be better than last year . . . all Spurs forwards have been linked with moves away from the club suggesting Redknapp is ready to play just one with Van der Vaart just off . . . probably has the fewest questions marks among 10m+ midfielders

Upside Plays
Jermaine Defoe . . . hard to believe he’s just one year removed from an 18 goal campaign (xG 24) . . . hard to see how he fits into the system with Van der Vaart playing in the whole of a loan striker . . . xG of just 9 last year giving him an xP of 129 . . . for a sub-9.0m forward though his upside is extremely high and if he can get on a hot streak he will deliver excellent value . . . I want to see who gets sold and how Van der Vaart lines up before I invest here but any player one season removed from an 18 goal season should remain on our radar.

Kyle Walker . . . played superbly last season with xG of 3, xA of 8 and xP of 130 despite playing on a Villa side which struggled for large portions of the season . . . Redknapp doesn't seem to be convinced by any of his right back options, playing Corluka, Hutton and even Gallas there last year . . . brings much more attacking potential than either of Spurs' other right backs and the fact they were able to get 4 assists of their own suggests Walker could be one of the better attacking options if given a run in the side . . . there is good depth at centre back which may prevent Corluka sliding inside and thus hold back Walker's minutes, so again hold off for now but very much pay attention to this situation as the season progresses

Gareth Bale . . . at times last season he may have been the best player in the league . . . incredibly inconsistent in fantasy terms though with 59 points coming in just 5 games supplemented with 18 games of 2 points or less . . . xG (10), xA (4) and xP (165) numbers are pretty impressive but with that kind of inconsistency you have to start him every single week or risk missing out on a big chunk of his season's points . . . still just 22, he might have the highest ceiling of anyone in his 8.0m bracket


No Thanks
Peter Crouch . . . appears to fit the system well and seemed to link up nicely with Van der Vaart last season, assisting a number of his goals . . . xG (7), xA (12) and xP (162) all look fairly good and would be excellent value for a 7.0m forward . . . as has been the case throughout his career though, Redknapp appears to have seen enough and Crouch has been linked with a move away from White Hart Lane all off-season . . . if he stays it isn't unbelievable that he could supplant Defoe and play regularly but there are far too many 'ifs' to even consider him right now

Heurelho Gomes . . . caught in the middle of elite keepers and rotatable options . . . Spurs defense is nowhere near the top units and will likely rank behind lower profile teams like Stoke or Sunderland whose keepers come at a cheaper price . . . constant threat of Friedel will also linger all year

Luka Modric . . . much better played in reality than fantasy xG and xA of 4 suggest his upside may be limited . . . he often plays the pass which splits a defense though it’s often not the final assist . . . rumours of a player leaving in the off season rarely lead to a hot start if the transfer doesn’t go ahead . . . other options in the same price bracket have a better history of goal scoring (Modric has 3 goals each of the past 3 seasons).

Fixtures
Eve, @MnU, MnC, @Wol, Liv, @Wig, Ars, @New

Defensively, Spurs appear to rank around the middle of the pack thanks to their extremely tough opening schedule. They have to take on four of the league's best sides while Newcastle also proved to be an extremely tough opponent at St James' Park. Given the uncertainty about who will play and the fact they cost a bit more than other mid-level teams, I would suggest steering clear for now.

Offensively it's a similar story with a very tough run of games after GW1. That said, the problem is more that there are no easy games rather than that all the fixtures are brutally hard. Aside from the trip to Old Trafford, all their opponents at least concede some goals and so the likes of Van der Vaart (if fit) and Bale make decent opening day starters.

Final Thoughts
There's obviously a lot of talent in this side but my concern is that they are sometimes priced as elite options when in reality they are often closer to the middle of the pack than the league's best. Van der Vaart would be very high on my rankings but his fitness is already in question which makes it tough to recommend anyone from this team with absolute certainty for GW1. I am intrigued by Bale's upside but there are several players in that price ranges so plenty of thought is needed to be sure you like him more than Dempsey, N'Zogbia, Yaya and Downing.

All the other team previews can be found here, and the latest strength of schedule rankings can be found here. Please post your questions/comments below or at @plfantasy. Not long until the big kick off now (provided it isn't delayed by the group of moron rioters).

Differentiation

dif·fer·en·ti·a·tion (n)

1. The act, process, or result of differentiating

2. The process of computing a derivative.

3. The process by which cells or tissues undergo a change toward a more specialized form or function, especially during embryonic development.

I hope you all captained Rooney or Fabregas this week! I'm pleased to say this pair were my top 2 captain picks for the week though judging from most of the mini leagues I am in, they were also everyone else's pick. Pure Juice scored 128 points this week and lost ground in the main competition thanks to the double game-weeks of Arsenal and United.

The week served to underline the fact that most teams now have an overlap of at least 4 or 5 players with 7 players owned by 30% of more of all managers. Consider that a number of managers at the bottom of the league have probably not kept up to date and you realise that in reality over half of all your competitors probably most own these players:

1. Rooney (44%)
2. Sorensen (44%)
3. Dunne (41%)
4. Fabregas (34%)
5. Bent (34%)
6. Milner (33%)
   
7. Defoe (30%)

Thus starts the age old issue of differentiation. It is important to strike a balance between differentiating your team while continuing to hold the top players who will continue to perform for the rest of the season. There is a reason that nearly half of all owners have Rooney and the fact he is widely held should not rule out you continuing to own him too.

Below are three players from each position who I like in the second half of the season and are owned by less than 10% of owners. I have given bias towards those players with good schedules in the next 8 weeks or so rather than those with a good finish to the season.

Defenders

1. Michael Dawson (5m 3%) - Tottenham's defense has been in great form but none of their defenders are owned by 10% of players and Dawson is owned by just 3%. Dawson has caught the eye of the judges too, being awarded 5 points over the past few weeks as a nice bonus to his 5 clean sheets in the past 6 games. Over the next 10 weeks , Spurs' opponents average just 1.15 goals per game and four opponents average less than 0.8. For those holding budget United players (Brown, Evans) soon to be obsolete, Spurs would be a great train to jump on before it becomes a bandwagon.
2. Martin Skrtel (5.6m 2%)- Liverpool have played a kind of 5-3-2 lately with Skrtel playing in either the back line or pushing into a holding role in a 4-1-3-2. I think that even when the back line is fully fit Skrtel should continue to play (ahead of Kyrgiakos) and Liverpool's fixtures are very solid aside from back to back trips to Eastlands and the Emirates. People are off the Liverpool defense this year but they have only conceded once in the last 4 games and might be slowly turning things round. If they do then you better be there first as owners will flock to big names like Carragher and (when fit) Johnson if Liverpool's defense starts to play consistently.
3. Scott Dann (4.1m 3%) - Fantasy owners still aren't giving Birmingham enough respect and while many managers own Hart (27%) not many have their back line. I like Dann as a solid bench player who can be played as well as Hart if the fixture is right to give you the edge. In the next 9 weeks Birmingham face just one scary game (@Che next week) and deserve strong consideration for starting berths in weeks 24, 25, 28, 29 and 30).

Midfielders

1. Charles N'Z0gbia (5.6m 8%) - I have been on N'Zogbia for some time now and he continues to impress me and the bonus judges (15 bonus points since week 10). Wigan have decent fixtures and are starting to score more goals under Martinez's system so I like N'Zogbia to continue his good form for the foreseeable future. He would be a useful replacement for Hunt, Diaby and Dempsey who are too widely owned now.
   
2. Luka Modric (7.2m 4%) - At the start of the season, Modric was one of the hottest fantasy players to own given his decent price tag and the fact that when he plays he is often central to most good things Spurs do. After injuries, the excellent form of Lennon and the arrival of Kranjcar, Modric has been forgotten somewhat and is now owned by less than 5% of owners (some of whom probably still have him since week 1 having neglected to change their team). Spurs have some good looking fixtures and are playing fairly well at the moment, though not scoring as many as they'd like. They are clearly missing Lennon but Modric should be able to fill that void and having played 180 minutes this week Modric has proven he is fit and ready to make a difference.
3. Steve Pienaar (6.3m 5%) - Pienaar is in great form and will start to be noticed by fantasy managers very soon. Everton's fixtures are tough which turns me off somewhat but the imminent return of Arteta from injury and Yakubu from Africa should improve the potency of an improving Everton side who Pienaar is now an integral part of.

Forwards

1. Ivan Klasnic (6m 1%) - Klasnic has become somewhat of a cult hero in Bolton thanks to his miraculous recovery from two kidney transplants along with his top performances this year. In the 7 games Klasnic has played for an hour, he has scored 6 goals and although he is a rotation risk when Bolton go away from home and switch to a 4-5-1 he should see plenty of action under the more attack minded Owen Coyle.
   
2. Louis Saha (7m 6%) - Like Pienaar above, Saha will benefit from the return of Cahill and Everton should continue to improve as the season goes on. I like Saha to continue to score and he could touch 20 goals when all is said and done (currently 11). He is a consistent scorer who can score against the big boys (Ars, Che, Tot and MNC already this year) and you can easily plug him in the side and forget about it provided he can avoid the injuries that have plagued his career to date.
3. Dimitar Berbatov (9.4m 1%) - This will be a controversial pick and to be honest it is probably a move for those in 20th rather than 2nd place. Nevertheless the polarizing Bulgarian has 7 goals for the season despite missing time due to injury in weeks 12-14. He is a rotation risk, though with Owen far from proving himself so far, Ferguson may be forced to play Berbatov and Rooney in most games for the rest of the season. I also think Tevez's success will push Ferguson to try and prove that he made the right decision in opting for Berbatov over the Argentinian. At 9.4m he is a huge risk but even those players currently unavailable like Drogba and Torres are widely owned and if you need to get back into your title race then it will take a bold move and as we have seen from his Spurs days, when Berbatov plays and plays well, he can be unplayable.

Why not post your own ideas as differentiators below or @plfantasy. As always, thanks for reading.