Cheap Links

Sometimes I hesitate writing certain posts as the content of them sounds somewhat obvious. That said, doubling up on double gameweek players or selling those who have lost playing time all seem self evident but are continually ignored so I guess nothing is too obvious.

The chart below plots the starters from each team defence's price against their ownership, hoping to identify the 'cheap links' within a given side. The logic being, of course, that the majority of most defenders' points come from clean sheets, which are earned as a team, rather than as an individual. As with any decision, it isn't as simple as finding the cheapest defender from a team and throwing him into your side, as we also need to consider their job security, and of course their attacking potential. I'm not going to dwell on the later, suffice to say that in many cases we are often guilty of overpaying for that attacking threat, which is generally extremely hard to predict. There are exceptions (or perhaps, an exception with Leighton Baines) but my general view is to air on the side of caution when forecasting attacking points for defenders.

The size of the square on the below chart represents a players' attacking potential based on their underlying stats to date. Given that we're close to the halfway point of the year (and thus everyone has essentially played everyone once) I have not adjusted the forecast for opponents, so it should be taken with a pinch of salt, merely as a quick and dirty indicator of wide gaps between two given options.

I have briefly touched on every team, but for many there really isn't much to say. This piece is specifically about cheap links in a given team so I will not dwell on debating the "merits" of the Villa defenders, all of whom essentially cost the same and offer little by way of differentiation (or in truth, points).

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In the below projected lineups, players who I deem to be safer are marked in bold. In many cases I have little to base this on other than historic playing time, so if you feel someone is misrepresented, my apologies, and please adjust them in your own rankings.

Arsenal
Projected lineup: Gibbs, Mertsesacker, Vermaelen, Sagna
This one might be one of the easiest picks in this piece and to me at least represents free money for those currently holding Gibbs, Vermaelen or the suddenly less secure Mertesacker (he was benched in favour of Koscielny this week, who was of course sent off, but long term you have to now question the German's place in this side a bit). The attacking drop off from Vermaelen to Sagna is non existent and the narrative of Vermaelen as some kind of offensive centre back has simply not played out in the stats. He's more likely to get an entry in a goal of the month competition but that privilege doesn't come with a fantasy bounty. As for Gibbs, he has put up better attacking numbers than Sagna, but probably not to the point of justifying the extra 0.5m investment. Sagna has historically (and this season) shown an ability to chip in with one or two goals and 3-5 assists and there isn't much here to suggest Gibbs will significantly eclipse those totals this year. Throw in the fact that Sagna offers a nice differential option from your rivals and he makes one of the better defensive buys around.
Pick: Sagna, definitely over Vermaelen and Mertsacker, and just ahead of Gibbs

Aston Villa
Projected lineup: Lowton, Vlaar, Clark, Baker
As noted above there's little value in this per se, and with no one standing out as sufficiently cheap to get involved with, let's move on.

Chelsea
Projected lineup: Cole, Terry, Ivanovic, Azpilicueta, Luiz (midfield)
If it wasn't for the question mark over his playing time, Azpilicueta would be by far the best pickup here and I'd be yelling his name from the roof tops. He hasn't brought a great attacking threat but he does enough and it's unlikely that over the next 16 weeks Luiz does enough offensively to justify the extra 1.0m it'll take to get him. That said, he faces competition not just from Luiz (who could slide back into defence from midfield at any time) but also from Terry and Cahill who are now both fit and ready to go. If I had to guess I'd suggest that Ivanovic is preferred in the middle and Azpilicueta - for me a more 'typical' full back - is kept at right back. If you're team is really limited for transfers Azpilicueta might represent a risk, but if you're wildcarding or have the depth to cover him should he dropped, he represents a very solid risk-reward candidate.
Pick: Azpilicueta as a somewhat risky upside play

Everton
Projected lineup: Baines, Distin, Jagielka, Coleman
This is a tough one as while my instinct is to shun the pricey Baines for the reasonably priced Distin, his production and potential is undeniable. In the admittedly crude expected points calculations used in the chart, Baines forecasts to score 40 attacking points for the remainder of the year with only Assou Ekotto (31), Evra (25) and G Johnson (21) managing to top 20. Given that the Spurs man's number is based on a tiny sample size we basically have a situation where Baines is almost twice as good as all other defensive players. Is that enough to justify the extra 2.2m over Distin to enough to compensate for Everton's lack of defensive prowess versus the likes of Man Utd (Evra) or Chelsea (Luiz), I'm honestly not sure. That same 2.2m could be the difference between Nolan and Bale, or Podolski and Suarez, gaps which have been similar as the Baines-Distin spread to date, but which look (a) more likely to continue given Distin's increased playing time and (b) are subject to more upside given the form Bale and Suarez have shown. As for the gap to other more projectable defensive sides, the model is really not a fan of Everton's upcoming schedule and thus it's hard to say that Baines is a sure bet to eclipse the likes of Evra or Luiz, hence my preference for grabbing Distin in this side
Pick: Distin looks like the safest pick though Baines' attacking upside is legit and it's at least arguable that he can justify that premium if your squad value is relatively high

Fulham
Projected lineup: Riise, Hughes, Hangeland, Riether
Fulham are a solid yet unspectacular defence who should be counted on more as good rotation defenders rather than ones you can deploy every week without question. That means price becomes a big factor (provided you have guaranteed playing time which probably applies to everyone here despite Riise's recent stint on the sidelines) and thus Hughes is the only player I'd touch here with Baird no longer a stable option in midfield. Hangeland and Riise just don't bring enough to the table to warrant the extra cost and given their 5% and 6% higher ownership, this moves looks like a no brainer to me.
Pick: Hughes

Liverpool
Projected lineup: G Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Wisdom
This decision may be the easiest of all, with Jose Enrique sidelined for another month, thus giving Wisdom another four or five games in the first team, including home against Norwich, West Brom, and hopefully Swansea. If you're not wildcarding, or have already done so, I guess there is a question as to whether you'd want to burn two transfers on a player who also faces two games in which you'll have to drop him (@ARS, @MCI) but otherwise he looks like one of the best pickups available.
Pick: Wisdom, by a long way (please also note the lack of use of the hacky "consensus Wisdom" pun here.

Man City
Projected lineup: Clichy, Kompany, Nastasic, Zabaleta
There's really no value in this back line in terms of cheaper assets, so you really just have to try and balance out their job security and price tag, which right now would probably lead you to Zabaleta. That's another mess for another day though.

Man Utd
Projected lineup: Evra, Vidic, Ferdinand, Rafael
It's the same story on the red side of Manchester as you're really just hoping for your United players to play, with no one coming at an extreme discount. Evra and Rafael look closer in terms of attacking potential than their points haul would suggest, though Rafael does also face a slightly higher chance of rotation with P Jones waiting in the wings. Again, this mess is not really the focus here, so let's keep going.

Newcastle
Projected lineup: Santon, S Taylor, Coloccini, Debuchy
Once S Taylor returns he looks like he'll be the best play here, coming at the lowest price, owned by no one and bringing a much better attacking threat than his tiny sample size for this season suggests. Moving Santon to him doesn't look like a priority but Coloccini owners should probably take a longer look given the added presence of his differential ability.
Pick: S Taylor, when healthy, looks like a worthy play for a slight discount over his teammates

Norwich
Projected lineup: Garrido, Turner, Bassong, R Martin
Bassong and Martin have each enjoyed brief runs of big points production, but neither have the underlying stats to suggest this kind of form is here to stay. Saying that, Whittaker out indefinitely (Martin's main competition), his attacking upside looks to be be sufficiently high to warrant the higher ownership percentage so I'd take him over Turner right now (though wouldn't be in a rush to make the move either way). Bassong owners should strongly consider cashing in and saving themselves over a million pounds given his much higher ownership numbers and limited attacking upside.
Pick: Martin

QPR
Projected lineup: Traore, Hill, Mbia, Nelsen
There's really no point getting involved here until we know what Redknapp will do in the transfer window. That, and the fact that this team is somewhat devoid of fantasy talent.

Reading
Projected lineup: Harte, Mariappa, Pearce, Gunter
Everyone can be had for under 4.0m so you're free to pick whichever one of these cheap options will disappoint you after showing flashes of promise during their three clean run in GW18-20.

Southampton
Projected lineup: Shaw, Hooiveld, Yoshida, Clyne
Clyne and Shaw look like the best plays here, with Clyne probably getting the slight edge despite his higher ownership numbers thanks to a better attacking threat. We're less bothered about that higher ownership percentage for players like Clyne, as the majority of those owners won't be playing him so any upside would be felt by few of those ~6%.
Pick: Clyne

Stoke
Projected lineup: Wilkinson/Wilson, Huth, Shawcross, Cameron
Marc Wilson is back is training and will represent sensational value at 4.0m when he's fully fit. Until then Wilkinson remains the best pick here as Huth and particularly Shawcross's attacking threat is really overrated and you're really only paying for Stoke's very strong defence. With Wilson possibly back next month, if you were using a transfer I might lean towards for Cameron for safety, but if wildcarding I'd feel comfortable slipping Wilkinson in here and then making the move to Wilson when he regains his full fitness.
Pick: Cameron in the short term but Wilson for the long term when healthy

Sunderland
Projected lineup: Colback, O'Shea, Bramble, Gardner
With Cuellar sidelined, Bramble becomes the cheapest option here but that move comes with a downgrade to this unpredictable defence so I wouldn't want to get carried away. However, 4.3m for a player who looks pretty much guaranteed playing time until Cuellar's return is solid value so Bramble deserves a look as a 5th defender type.
Pick: Bramble

Swansea
Projected lineup: Davies, Chico, Williams, Rangel
Rangel is presenting with a much stronger attacking threat than Davies, and it's to a point where the 0.5m investment may almost be worth it, especially considering the higher risk that the young Davies will face more time on the sidelines (replaced by the very competent Tierdalli) than the more experienced Rangel. If you have money lying around it's probably worth the upgrade but I'd be more than okay holding both of these options and would swap Williams for both.
Pick: Davies, or Rangel if you have spare cash

Tottenham
Projected lineup: Assou Ekotto, Vertonghen, Dawson, Walker
The three pricey options here all look like reasonable options though are pretty much priced where they should be. Dawson on the other hand could be one the best value defenders in the whole game, if you believe he can hold off the threat from Caulker and Gallas. I probably wouldn't suggest he'll play every game but I believe he'll play enough to be an excellent rotation option and would strongly target him in the next few weeks.
Pick: Dawson

West Brom
Projected lineup: Ridgewell, Olsson, McAuley, Jones
Jones' price tag is promising and the playing time has been pretty solid of late, suggesting he's the pick here. He does come with a slightly lower attacking threat than Olsson which together with slightly less job security might lead one to conclude that Olsson remains the pick here. I'd venture it's pretty close and neither look like options you'd really want to target right now.

West Ham
Projected lineup: Demel, Collins, Reid, O'Brien
With McCartney sidelined and O'Brien's price rise, Demel once again becomes the cheap link here and should represent solid value at 4.0m. O'Brien owners who got in at a lower price will likely feel okay staying put but Reid owners should think about this move as the 1.1m difference in price can be better used elsewhere.
Pick: Demel

Wigan
Projected lineup: Boyce, Ramis, Figueroa, Caldwell, Beausejour
It isn't particularly clear who will play in the Wigan side, nor in what formation they will start and thus with no super cheap options there's really nothing to focus on within this whole group.

Scraping the Barrel

Sometimes it pays to build a squad of 15 good players, sometimes you have to go with a 'stars and scrubs' approach and hope to find just enough talent at the bottom of the barrel to allow you the freedom to pack your side with Rooneys, Agueros and Silvas. So far this season, we are well and truly in the latter situation. Just look at the top 5 midfielders and forwards. The forwards are packed with 10m+ players while in midfield you have yet more 10m+ guys and then a group of players who've enjoyed one big week and then average production (good luck guessing which player that will be each week). In previous years we've had players like Charlie Adam, Andy Carroll and Steve Ireland emerge as elite options for mid-range price tags, thus freeing up a couple of million to use elsewhere. No one has really emerged like that this term, so we need to dig deeper and find some players who may not be ideal, but may have a part to play this year. I'll be honest, I'm probably not going to come up with someone you never heard of here, but hopefully I can help you get your plan in order by shedding some light on some of the better options out there:

'Keepers
Vorm (4.2m) - If you look at the league table, Swansea don't look like a very good defensive option. 9 goals conceded in 6 games is nothing to excited about, but if you look closer you see a side quickly developing into an elite home option (3 clean sheets) which is all you need for a rotation keeper. Swansea aren't scoring goals so they're going to need to keep it tight at the back, making Vorm delicious value at 4.2m. I have some concerns regarding the teams Swansea have kept out, but again you are only looking for a keeper who can do well in the easy games. I'd be hesitant to pair him with another high risk pick but if you match Vorm with someone like Schwarzer or Begovic, I think you have the makings of a great and cheap partnership.

Kenny (4.5m) - Take out the GW1 disaster and this defense have been very useful. The new arrivals have all settled quickly and the back line should be fairly settled going forward (unless Traore keeps getting sent off!). The appeal here is that - unlike Swansea - QPR have been able to perform well away from home with impressive clean sheets at Everton and Wolves already. Kenny doesn't have the save totals to boost his points on off days, but realistically this should only boil down to a handful of points at year end. As with Vorm, I would like to pair him with a reliable option, with Schwarzer and Begovic again looking like good matches.

I noted this week some thoughts on de Gea's save totals but with options like these available, I see no reason to depart from the GK rotation strategy.

Defenders
There's very good depth in the cheap defender pool this year and you could probably grab three, or even four of them and still generate enough defensive points to be competitive.

N Taylor (4.0m) - not much to add here that we didn't say for Vorm. This Swansea defense looks legit (at least at home) and Taylor seems to be locked into the first team. I like Rangel's (4.5m) attacking prospects but seeing as you'll be using these guys in a rotation, attacking points become even more dangerous to predict and you might find yourself benching him when he finally earns that assist or goal.  When in doubt take the money.

D Simpson (4.1m) - I think Steve Taylor outscores Simpson on the year but now the difference is up to 0.8m I like the cheaper option more. Newcastle are yet to concede more than a goal in a single game and have already racked up 3 clean sheets (including 2 on the road). Tiote and Cabaye provide good protection for the backline, which has outperformed expectations already. There is some threat from Santon, who is now close to full fitness, but you have to think he slots in at left back, displacing Ryan Taylor who has been playing out of position this year. It might be worth holding off here for a week until you can be sure who will start (if Santon gets the nod then at 4.3m he too becomes interesting).

Gabbidon (4.0m) - I like this defense but with three of the back line coming from other Premier League teams, you are paying a premium, thus making Traore and Young way too expensive for this team's worth. Gabbiddon looks like a sure thing to play, and as noted for Kenny above, this defense has looked very good since the new signings were brought in. You aren't excited about signing him but 4.0m defenders with clean sheet potential are hard to find and he makes a great bench option.

Woodgate (4.5m) - The injury history is a concern and if you have money to spare then Shawcross (who also brings a better goal and bonus point threat) might be worth looking at. That said, Upson has been available for a few weeks now and Woodgate has held his place so the only threat is injury and you can deal with that if (or when) it rears it's ugly head. Stoke have some pretty good looking fixtures on the horizon and Woodgate could become a borderline every week starter over that period.

Evans (4.5m) - his time is probably done for now, but with Ferdinand unable to stay healthy for a sustained period of time and Vidic now suffering too, you should keep Evans in mind such is the unmatched value he can deliver at 4.5m for one of the best defensive teams in the league. Be ready to pounce at the first sign of long term injuries to Ferdinand or Vidic again.

Midfielders
In truth the options here are limited and you really need to be targeting mid-range options like Taarabt or Murphy, but that's a separate post for another day.

Faurlin (5.0m) - the QPR midfield is looking pretty stacked and Faurlin has really been lost in the shuffle thanks to big name arrivals and reputations. I'm generally reluctant to back a player with the majority of his points from one game, but the underlying stats for Faurlin are very impressive, ranking 10th in key passes (13) and 5th in passes in the opposition half while providing at least some goal threat (5 shots, 3 on target). He doesn't have the free role of a Taarabt or the advanced play of a Wright Phillips but if you're stuck with 5.0m and no wiggle room, Faurlin gives you a player with the potential to contribute in every category which might at least buy you time to find some better upside.

Moses (4.9m) - I liked Moses in the pre-season and while the returns haven't come yet, I'm not ready to abandon the Wigan winger just yet (though I'm getting closer each week). With as many shots as Ashley Young (11) and as many key passes as Yaya Toure (5), the potential is still there and he probably holds the highest potential of all these budget plays. That said, I am always keen to point out that I'd prefer to be a week late than several weeks early so my patience with Moses is very much waning. If you're strapped for cash though, you're not likely to find a sure thing so Moses remains interesting.

Dyer (4.8m) - I did Dyer a disservice last week, suggesting his good play had been for nothing, as he did of course find the back of the net in GW5. Dyer has impressed to the naked eye but his underlying stats disappoint a bit and I am souring on his prospects, especially given his 13% ownership. He's managed just 4 shots this year (2 on target) and while his 5 key passes are okay, Moses has the same number but brings a significantly better goal threat. I still like Dyer but of the two popular wingers, I still like Moses a touch more.

Forwards
Di Santo (5.7m) - Di Santo has been a revelation so far this year, and with great underlying numbers there is little reason to think he can't keep it going. His shots on target for the year (7 from 12 shots) rank him 6th among forwards after Rooney, Van Persie, Aguero, Dzeko and Suarez: impressive company. Based on historical data he isn't going to continue to score a goal every 2 shots on target but if he keeps up this shooting pace he should add another 8 goals or so, which in a side like Wigan will often bring bonus points too (based on the fact that the majority of goals they score tend to influence the result of a game as opposed to, say, Dzeko, whose effort may the 3rd of 4th goal of a contest). He doesn't bring too much of an assist threat and Wigan have only managed 5 goals all year so his scoring is going to be up and down. If I plan to sit a player most weeks I'd like to spend a little less than 5.7m but given the market this year, this might be as good as it gets.

Best (5.3m) - I hate to just pick the obvious players but there really isn't much else to look at. Best has been good when he's started and my concerns with him are less about him and more about his place in the side. With Ba starting to come round after a slow start and Ameobi close to full fitness, Best's place in the team is no guarantee and even at this price, starting minutes are a must. I like his assist potential (6 key passes) to supplement his goal scoring and his strong aerial presence (13 aerial duels won) will always give him a chance to score from set pieces and win flick ons for his teammates to convert. Straight up I would take Di Santo but 0.4m is not to be ignored and if Best can secure his place in the starting lineup he makes a nice addition to any squad.

Hoilett (6.0m) - The thing I like most about Hoilett is his ability to contribute in every category, which gives him the potential for consistency that the above players lack: a valuable attribute for a bench player who will be forced into action off your bench at unknown times. His total shots (5) are a concern, though he has been accurate when shooting (4) thus making his goal/shot rate about at the league average. His key passes (10) are elite and Yakubu's presence increases the chance that these shots are converted into goals. If he was 5.5m or less I'd probably slap a buy sticker on him but until he starts getting into consistent goal scoring positions it's hard to get overly excited a 6.0m man who will struggle to hit 8 goals for the year.

Yakubu (5.5m) - This is premature but color me intrigued. Two appearances, two shots, two on target and two goals tells you all you need to know about Yakubu. Bill James used to say that once you exhibit a talent it's yours to lose, and Yakubu's previous goalscoring exploits could be categorised in this way. True, he's probably lost half a step and he's no longer a threat to touch 20 goals but double digits wouldn't blow me away, which at this price cannot be ignored. With 25 passes in two games, he clearly isn't going to be involved in everything Blackburn do, but as a comparison, Darren Bent has only averaged 17 passes per game, such is the way they play the game. I haven't seen Yakubu play aside from highlights this year so I am personally hesitant to recommend buying him on stats alone, but there's something here and we should at least monitor him over the next few weeks (when the fixtures are tough) to see if we want to bring him in for their nice run of games between GW12 and GW17.

Check back shortly for the weekly preview, which will focus on captain picks, with the weekly forecasted goals conceded and scored given above. In the meantime, please post your comments/questions below or @plfantasy and I'll try and answer as many as possible before this week's deadline.

The Cheapest Links

Two forces are currently conspiring to make squad selection as difficult as I ever remember. First is the fact that the market makers have set the prices high on a lot of players, virtually shutting down the mid-price striker market and making it almost as tough to find quality in midfield for a reasonable outlay. Second is the massive uncertainty surrounding many of the safer options from years past, whether because of injury (Gerrard, Hernandez), transfer (Fabregas) or their current situation (Drogba, Tevez, Nani).

This unique situation - along with the free transfers for GW2 - is making a high number of owners gravitate towards a select few players, most of whom come at a premium. In past seasons these elite players were accommodated in our teams by supplementing them with mid-priced, reliable options like Dempsey and N'Zogbia who provided a perfect amount of security and upside for a reasonable price. Looking at the sub-7.5m midfield market now though reveals a dearth of guaranteed talent, with only a handful of players even locked in to play every week, never mind make big fantasy contributions. And so we look elsewhere to save money. The immediate answer is just to simply plug in a couple of 4.5m-5.0m midfielders (which looks like a popular one given the transfer activity surrounding Mikel, Muamba and Tiote) but I think it's dangerous to start down a road where you are effectively reducing your roster by one player (this just in: Muamba is not an attacking midfielder).

The solution I prefer, and will elaborate on here is well known by all but apparently underused. We are talking about picking the cheapest player on a team defense, given that they live and die as a unit, with the exception of attacking points, which are generally hard to predict and often overvalued. The below represent situations where one or more players in a team defense come at a discount to their teammates yet have the chance to play just as often (at least in the short term in some situations). I have not included teams like Bolton where all players cost the same aside from one pricey option (Cahill) as this really comes back to offensive defenders, which have been discussed at length before (see previous link).

Arsenal - Gibbs (5.5m), Koscielny (6.0m), Vermaelen (7.0m), Sagna (6.0m)
He may not be that established yet, and we're far from sure that he's the next Cole/Clichy but until further notice Gibbs is the starter here. If Koscielny and Vermaelen's performance from this weekend is anything to go by, this unit could be better than in prior years, and the departure of quality attacking players may encourage Wenger to try and play it a bit tighter at the back (not sure if I'm convinced by that theory though). For the sake of saving transfers I might be tempted to either go with Sagna or hold off for now and then bring in Gibbs for GW4 when he should have shaken off Tuesday's knock and the transfer window will be closed, allowing us to fully understand his role in this team before the fixtures get pretty easy.

Chelsea - Cole (7.5m), Luiz (6.5m), Terry (7.5m), Ivanovic (7.0m)
It wasn't widely reported but Ivanovic was carrying a knock into the weekend's game, and while he was able to make the bench, I would still wager that he returns to the side when healthy at the expense of Bosingwa. That still leaves Luiz as a cheap link though, presumably due to the apparent threat of Alex who did start at the weekend. I don't see that as a realistic contest for the season though. Luiz is more talented and performed in his debut season last year. Alex meanwhile has been tied with a move away from Stamford Bridge all summer, not the kind of rumour that usually befalls regular starters. I could swallow 0.5m for the security and attacking potential of Cole but I struggle to see how he's worth an extra 1.0m over Luiz (who carries attacking prowess of his own). As soon as he's fit and Villas-Boas picks him, Luiz becomes the best value player in this back line for me by some distance.

On a side note, if Luiz does not prove his fitness by this week, then Bosingwa would appear to be a potentially cheap rental and could be worth owning given the favorable fixture (WB H). Bear in mind though he many only play one more game for you.

Fulham - Riise (6.0m), Hangeland (6.5m), Senderos (4.5m), Hughes (5.0m)
I am still a little wary of Baird's presence here but given the lineup against Villa and the Europa League second leg tie with Split, along with new transfer rumours, it's looking more likely that this spot is Senderos' to lose. Hughes still represents a safer bet but we can use every 0.5m we can get and given that neither offer much offensively, I am very much leaning towards Senderos. Having a 4.5m defender on a very good defensive team who you feel comfortable playing almost every week is a massive bonus for any squad.

Liverpool - Jose Enrique (5.0m), Carragher (6.0m), Agger (6.0m), Johnson (7.0m)
A huge number of managers are already all over Jose Enrique and at 5.0m it's really a bit of a no brainer. There is the slimmest of risks that Agger could slide to left back when Skrtel returns but it's pretty doubtful that Liverpool paid ~7m for a backup. At this price he renders Carragher and Agger as overvalued while Johnson would need have a Baines type season to come close to justifying the extra expenditure. The only downside is that if Liverpool establish their defensive credentials early on, his ownership could easily leap into the 40%+ range.

Man Utd (short term) - Evra (6.5m), Evans (4.5m), Smalling (5.5m), Fabio (5.0m)
The United defense is a total mess right now and picking through the scraps gives us a high risk, high reward strategy. Of these four players mentioned, I wouldn't guarantee that any of them play and Phil Jones still waits in the wings. I'm suggesting Evans will get the call for two reasons. Firstly, he has the most experience at United and would bring at least a semblance of stability. Second, when Vidic went off injured against West Brom, it was Evans rather than Jones who came on.

I am down on Jones a bit as if you're going to spend 5.5m I would go with Smalling who can play at centre back or on the right and looks like a borderline full time starter when everyone is fit. I like Evans because at 4.5m you can play him, fairly safe in the knowledge that if he does miss out you will get a sub coming in, all the while occupying very little of your precious cash.

Man Utd (long term) - Evra (6.5m), Ferdinand (6.5m), Vidic (8.0m), Smalling (5.5m)
With Rafael out for the medium term (12 weeks - shoulder), Smalling would appear to have a jump on the right back spot (he started the Community Shield and GW1 matchup). Fabio is a major threat provided we are convinced he is actually a different person to Rafael, and the danger will be if we get a platoon situation where Smalling plays against stronger teams with Fabio's attacking ability preferred against weaker opponents.

Given the increased likelihood of minutes over the next few weeks though, I think Smalling makes a sensible investment now, and if Fabio does win out at right back or the situation becomes clouded, you've at least had a valuable contributor for 4-6 weeks.

Newcastle - R Taylor (4.0m), S Taylor (4.5m), Coloccini (5.0m), Simpson (4.0m)
In the very short term Ryan Taylor is probably the better play given his ability to take set pieces but Newcastle seem intent on finding a replacement for Jose Enrique and Taylor is probably not a long term solution. Simpson however seems to be fairly safe at right back and until one of the promoted teams establishes themselves as a defensive force, he is probably the only startable 4.0m player.

Stoke - Wilson (5.0m), Shawcross (5.0m), Woodgate (4.5m), Huth (6.0m)
Huth has now played several games at right back (including the Europa League) and Pulis seems fairly happy with the move, allowing Woodgate to slot in alongside Shawcross. Stoke have shown themselves to be fairly reliable defensively over the past couple of seasons but at 5.0m the value might not be there. At 4.5m however Woodgate makes a very good rotatable player who should be able to start the majority of weeks for you. Pairing him with someone like Senderos would give you a potentially great 9.0m pairing to rotate based on matchup (I haven't done the research to see if this pair's fixtures gel but you get the idea).

As you read this you might feel that I'm not really breaking new ground, and you're right. However, only Simpson and Jose Enrique rank as the most selected player on their team with Luiz (5th), Senderos (4th) and Evans (8th) getting no attention at all. Aside from the popular pair noted, only Smalling (7%) tops 5% ownership levels at this point.

I think all these picks are safe aside from Jonny Evans, though be sure to check Luiz and Gibbs' injury status if you are looking at them for this week. Check back soon for the GW2 preview and be sure to post any comments/questions below or at @plfantasy.

Who is the cheapest link?

One of my favourite ways to select defenders is to select a player from a team who is valued at a lower value than his teammates (like Armand Traore last year who at 4.5m was considerably cheaper than his Portsmouth teammates). A lot of fantasy players tend to select a particular player based on reputation even though you are really picking a defensive team, save for a extra goals and bonus points that accompany some players. Putting these aside for now, lets look around the league for the potential cheap links this year:
NB. Goalkeepers do not count here as they are all generally cheaper than the defensive counterparts:

Man United - Rafael (5.5)/O'Shea (5.5)/Brown (6m)/Neville (5.5m)
If any of these players can lock down the position then they instantly become almost a must own player as they will be playing alongside the best defence in the league, who are valued at 8m, 7m and 6.5m but will only cost you the same as a Villa or West Ham defender. If Rafael can become an every week player then his attacking prowess make him even more valuable, and he would easily have 120 point potential. The question of course remains who will play and so far in the post season we are none the wiser:

vs Malaysia XI - Neville RB (O'Shea sub), Brown CB
vs FC Seoul - O'Shea RB, Brown CB
vs Greentown - Fabio RB, Brown CB (sub)
vs Boca Juniors - O'Shea RB, Brown CB
vs Bayern Munich - United played 3-5-2

As you can see this provides absolutely no help whatsoever, so my only advice would be to ignore this situation for now and see what develops. The fact that Brown played in every game but one might suggest he is the favourite but better value can be found elsewhere until this situation becomes clearer.

Liverpool - Martin Skrtel (6m) and Insua (6m)
It is unclear if Skrtel will be ready for the start of the season, but if he is he should join Insua as bargain players in one of the top defenses around, and will only cost 6m (1m less than fellow center back Carragher). I like both these guys to open the season with and would even consider starting both considering Liverpool's good looking schedule.

Aston Villa - Nicky Shorey/Luke Young (5m)
Villa's defense is paper thin right now and if reinforcements aren't made they may concede too many to even be considered a viable fantasy option. Nevertheless, assuming they are a top 8 defense again next year, Young and/or Shorey look like good value ahead of teammates Davies and Cuellar. Young would be the top choice based on the fact he played a lot last year and seems to be ahead of Shorey in the pecking order.

Blackburn - Ryan Nelsen (4.5m)/Givet (4.5)
This one is a bit of a head scratcher as one of the key principles when selecting a defender is whether they will play and who is less likely to be benched than the club captain? Reports from Ewood suggest that Givet fill play at left back allowing Samba (5m) to partner Nelsen in the middle. I wouldn't bet my house on Givet playing every week as they may opt for Warnock at left back when they wish to be more adventurous, but Nelsen looks like a good bet to play 32+ games, and for an improving defensive side like Blackburn, that looks like money well spent.