Notebook Preview: Manchester City

Looking back at last season

• Led all teams with 18 clean sheets including 12 at home. Only six other teams have 12 clean sheets in total.
• The final 13 gameweeks of the seasons saw City rack up an impressive 7 clean sheets including 3 straight to end the season.
• Their 0.63 GPG at home and 1.11 GPG away ranked 1st and 3rd in the league respectively
• Failed to score a surprising 9 times though 5 of these came in the first 13 weeks of the season.
• Through the first 13 gameweeks they managed to score just 15 goals (1.15 GPG). The remaining games saw them up the pace to 1.8 GPG.
• Led the league in goalkeeper points but ranked just 12th in P$ thanks to Hart's price tag
• Defensive P90 ranked 2nd at home with the unit coming in 5th in P$. Thanks to the uncertainty around most positions the unit's prices haven't risen too fast making the unit very useful again this year.
• Up front the team amassed the third most points, which is incredible considering it was pretty much Tevez and half a season of Balotelli and Dzeko but their lofty price tags pushed the P$ ranking down to 18th. A happy Tevez or a settled Aguero are a couple of players where value for money needs to be ignored though as they have the potential to top 200 points a piece.

Predicted Lineup
Hart (7.0m), Clichy (6.0m), Lescott (6.5m), Kompany (6.0m), Richards (6.0m), Silva (9.5m), De Jong (5.0m), Yaya Toure (8.0m), Milner 7.5m), Tevez (12.0m), Aguero (11.0m)

City obviously have pretty good depth across the board but for such an improved squad, it is still possible to at least make some educated guesses about who will play. As Kolarov proved last season, being the new boy does not guarantee minutes, but as a new arrival with Premier League experience and a good balance of attacking/defensive ability, Clichy looks fairly secure to rack up plenty of minutes. Zabaleta played a lot of left back at the end of last season but I see him more of an John O'Shea-type, getting minutes at several positions rather than making one his own. Lescott and Kompany look fairly secure for now with Kompany looking good value at just 6.0m. I would lean towards Richards on the right but Zabaleta and Boyata both vultured minutes last year but like Clichy, I think Richards gets more than his fair share of starts.

The midfield is also pretty settled with De Jong, Yaya Toure and Silva looking like they would only be rested rather than rotated. I've gone for Milner on the right but there is depth in the middle of the park which should worry fantasy owners. Up top one must assume that Mancini will deploy two front men out of an impressive list of four. Tevez has been on extended leave but was so integral to their success last year that I think he plays if he's still at the club. If not, then Aguero would seem likely to get the most minutes with the underwhelming Dzeko and unpredictable Balotelly battling for the rest.

Safest Picks
Vincent Kompany . . . the fact he ranks as City's 5th best defender in points from last year seems to be depressing his value but that was largely due to him being classed as a midfielder . . . would have scored 139 points if classed as a defender . . . the safest of City's back line to get regular minutes (3330 last season) . . . doesn't bring much outside of clean sheets . . . new bonus system could favor him

Joe Hart . . . the elite fantasy goalkeeper in the league with 175 points which could even improve as City begin to gel as a unit . . . saves are higher than Cech . . . I'm still not on board with a 7.0m keeper but if you're going in that direction it doesn't get much safer than Hart who also brings a decent upside.

Yaya Toure . . . elite player who can contribute in every category with xG of 7, xA of 7 and xP 168 . . . lacks the ceiling of players who take a more advanced role but will deliver consistently for 8.0m but did manage 7 games with 8 points or more last season . . . faces some rotation risk but should have one of the highest minutes totals in this team.

Gael Clichy . . . not guaranteed minutes with Kolarov and Lescott able to play left . . . has offensive potential but didn't really have much fantasy success at Arsenal . . . City full backs only managed 4 assists last season and Mancini can sometimes be restrictive which might limit Clichy's offensive production . . . higher ceiling than Kompany but not quite as safe

Upside Plays
David Silva . . . settled into the Premier League well, with xG of 5, xA of 12 and xP of 193 . . . upside is as higher as anyone in the league and double digit goals and assists are possible . . . competition for places is high but you'd imagine Silva will play the majority of games and improve on his 2500 minutes from last year . . . averaged 5.4 PPG from GW25 onwards with 3 goals and 4 assists . . . could lead all midfielders in points despite his relatively low cost

Sergio Aguero . . . averaged a goal every other game over the past four seasons . . . supreme talent who should be guaranteed playing time provided he settles in well . . . similarity to Tevez is a concern if Tevez sticks around but both are talented enough to make it work . . . one of a handful of players who could hit 20 goals . . . doesn't have great assist stats for his career but he's never played with so many talented players at the club level . . . I'd prefer to be a week late than 10 weeks early but I do think he'll be a big success and will justify, maybe demand, ownership very soon . . . GW1 visit of Swansea might make him worth a role of the dice with the comfort you can move him on before the trip to Bolton if he struggles

James Milner . . . forgotten man at City but managed 97 points last season in limited playing time for an xP of 155 . . . goals really fell off (xG 2) but he's proven his ability to score in the past and 5 goals wouldn't be out of the question with consistent playing time . . . not guaranteed to play every week but 7.5m isn't a bad price if he can either lock a place down or earn a consistent run . . . one to keep on the radar

No thanks
Carlos Tevez . . . uncertain future looks like it will spill into the new season . . . proved last year he can play when upset but City have plenty of options now making him droppable for the first time . . . xP of 252 is off the charts so if he settles down he quickly justifies a 12.0m tag but until we see that for sure, the price is too high to risk missing even a minute in the early going

Joleon Lescott . . . not sure how he is 0.5m more than Kompany . . . more liable to be dropped if a new signing comes in or if Savic develops quickly . . . ability to also play left back is a boost . . . delivered better offensive points than Kompany and Clichy but a classic example of paying for past performance which is by no means guaranteed

Aleksandar Kolarov . . . sky high offensively given his potential deployment in the front three . . . wicked left foot will be valuable from set pieces and he's shown the ability to score from long range . . . Mancini seems to have given up on him as a regular left back forcing him into a crowded midfield where minutes will be hard to come by . . . City conceded 1.1 GPG when he played compared to 0.6 GPG for Zabaleta

Mario Balotelli . . . too unpredictable to own at the moment . . . has the potential to excel and at 9.0m he probably represents the greatest ceiling in his price bracket . . . his hilarity points are off the scale but until that gets added as a new category, spend the extra 0.5m on Suarez

Fixtures
Swa, @Bol, @Tot, Wig, @Ful, Eve, @Bla, Ast

The trips to Bolton and Spurs look tricky from a defensive standpoint but the home games look promising for some early clean sheets while trips to Villa and Blackburn hardly look terrifying. The over/under on clean sheets should be around 3.5 which would be a nice start for Kompany and company.

The opening game against Swansea is enough to buy a couple of City players even if you plan to use your first free transfer to move one on before the two road trips. Nothing is guaranteed of course but the odds suggest at least a couple on opening day making Silva, Yaya Toure and Aguero extremely tempting. Over the eight games the fixtures are only okay but probably have enough upside to warrant serious investment in this City team.

Final Thoughts
Picking your City players has probably become as important as the more established super powers as they bring an already elite defense and a potentially elite attack to the fold. Playing time is going to be one of the hardest obstacles to navigate but safe options are out there with Kompany and Toure looking like the safest options while Aguero is extremely tempting too.

If City are serious about challenging for the title Mancini probably needs to take the reins of his side on occasions, which may result in the odd defensive slip but could also give rise to more goals. I would favor them to do well at both ends and might suggest you need a couple of Citizens on opening day as they look to give Swansea a rough start to the Premier League campaign.

All the other team previews can be found here and the latest news can be found over at @plfantasy. I also urge you to place your vote in the top 3 players in the league for the upcoming SimPrem draft.

Week One Roundup: Lessons learned

Well that went well. One of my better week of predictions is in the bag and Pure Juice sit 113th out of close to 2 million managers having managed six goals and four clean sheets on opening weekend. Unfortunately I don't think I have struck some sort of fantasy blueprint to be applied in all future weeks - more than I got a bit lucky and applied some fundamental principles that hold true for the coming weeks too:

1. While I cautioned earlier about using minutes played as a sure fire barometer for future success, during these opening weeks when team selections are unsettled from prior season, it is essential to go with the sure things and try and avoid trying to discover the next big thing too early. That is why - as some of you have correctly pointed out - I somewhat deviated from my normal strategy of cheaper defenders and brought in Vidic and Terry for opening weekend (this was also due to saving some cash swapping Van Persie to Berbatov quite late on after it became apparent that Van Persie would not start this week). My big mistake of the week was sticking with N'Zogbia despite the warnings that he was upset and might not feature in Martinez's side. I was lucky this time as Chaz Adam came off the bench with 6 points but this was a careless risk and I must now burn a transfer this week to remove N'Zogbia and lose 0.1m in the process. Many managers got burned with either big name arrivals failing to excite (Silva, Hernandez, K.Jones, J.Cole, Boselli) or players failing to make the first team (Adebayor, Lescott, N'Zogbia, Ivanovic).
2. Playing the fixtures is still one of the safest strategies. It might not work every time (Wolves conceding to Stoke was a blow to my clean sheet rankings) but those who jumped on the solid defensive fixtures of United, Villa, Chelsea, Bolton, Spurs and Blackburn were rewarded with clean sheets this week and the only game that really went against the defensive trends was the 2-2 Sunderland-Birmingham game which looked more like a 0-0 before kick off.

For real or no deal?

One of the hardest parts at the start of the season is knowing what trends are for real and what are aberrations. Didier Drogba probably won't continue his form and end the season on 114 goals but his dominant play is, as will all know, for real and he is a legitimate stud going forward. But what about someone like Marc Albrighton who shone for Villa and can be had for a measly 4.6m (his value has already gone up). Here's my take on the headline makers from week one in no particular order:

Steve Gerrard / Frank Lampard: I am concerned for this pair's ability to generate top level returns given the positions they took in their team's gameweek one games. Looking at the chalkboards below, we can see that both players took up rather deep positions and despite Lampard completing almost all his passes against weak opposition, most of them were not in dangerous positions.

Gerrard v Lampard chalkboard: too deep to dominate?

I voiced my approval for the premium strikers before the season and I am even further on board this strategy after watching the games this week. In the 4-5-1 formation there is room for the Mezhut Ozil / Kaka type 'trequartista' who could dominate the fantasy scoring charts but neither Lampard nor Gerrard are being deployed in this way, possibly due to the inclusion of natural forwards in the wide right position (Anelka and Kuyt) who often push the formation into somewhat of a lopsided 4-4-2.

There aren't any other players who fit this mold either but if you make Lampard/Gerrard just a very good central midfielder then give me James Milner and 4m any day. I am not willing to give up on this pair yet but I stick by my pursuit of premium strikers for the time being.

Gareth Bale: I wasn't particularly high on Bale before the season and I felt that most people were overvaluing him due to the clean sheet points he earned last year while classified as a defender. However, he looked very dangerous against a good City side, and seems locked into the first team lineup.

I am still concerned with how wasteful his passing is sometimes (see below) but the pundits didn't seem to be bothered when handing out the bonus points and so long as you can handle some inconsistency in his points, I think Bale should represent good value for the foreseeable future.

Bale chalkboard: wasteful in possession

Marc Albrighton: The Villa youngster looked very good in his debut and the fantasy managers have already reacted to the 4.5m player pushing his price up to 4.6m. However, the return of Gabby Agbonlahor will limit Albrighton's playing time and I think whoever the manager is at Villa will be keen to not put too much pressure on the teenager. I am currently filing him as one for the future and I think you'll spend more time frustrated by him giving you 12 minutes and 1 point than counting the points you won by being the first on the kid's bandwagon.

Paul Scholes / Darren Fletcher: This pair played tremendously well for United against Newcastle and I was particularly intrigued by Fletcher's forward runs and attacking influence. Scholes has developed into a Pirlo-like deep lying playmaker which allows Fletcher the room to run forward more, knowing that he has a few bodies protecting him. I'm not ready to buy either of these players yet but they have turned a somewhat fantasy-sparse United team into an intriguing squad of players, along with:

Nani: I am a proud Valencia owner and I have stated that I think he has a shot at being a top 5 midfielder this year. However, for me, Nani was the more dangerous player on Monday and his pass to Evra for Fletcher's goal was pure class. I cannot believe I have now championed both Nani and Walcott in the past few weeks but I think they have the chance to take the next steps to being mature wingers this season. I'm not buying yet but if Nani keeps this up he could develop into a very useful squad player.

Dimitar Berbatov / Javier Hernandez: I hate to ride the United bandwagon too much but I think there are goals in this team and one of these two players are going to get a chunk of them. I absolutely love Berbatov when he's "on"and during his best spell at Spurs I would have put him in the top 3 or 4 strikers in England. He actually had a good fantasy season last year (5.59 PPG and 0.607 PPMS - Rooney's was just 0.620) and he has started the season on fire in the Community Shield and in gameweek 1. He looked very hungry and seemed to be enjoying his football and the chalkboard below shows how involved he was, with touches all over the pitch.

Berbatov chalkboard: involved in the action all over the field

My concern is the presence of another player who has impressed - Javier Hernandez or "Chicarito". He plays like a goalscorer and looked fresh when he came on against Newcastle. While Rooney is getting back to fitness there are minutes for both these players but once fit, Rooney will take 90 minutes every week and the fantasy value of Berbatov and Hernandez may be limited. United have a pretty awesome set of fixtures through week 11 with only @Ful @Eve, Liv and Tot looking even vaguely threatening and so I think I will stick with Berbatov for now, but if Ferguson starts getting too happy with his rotation it's time to move on as 8.5m is simply too much money to have on the bench. Monitor this situation closely.

David Stockdale: Stockdale did okay in Schwarzer's absence and Fulham look like they are still a decent defensive side under Mark Hughes. If Schwarzer finally completes his drawn out move to Arsenal or somewhere else then Stockdale becomes a 4m starting keeper which are hard to come by and he would become a very useful asset for all teams, either in a rotation strategy or as the best 4m keeper around (no I'm not on board the Gilks / Mignolet or Carson trains just yet).

Phil Jones / Paul Robinson: Blackburn managed an opening day clean sheet against a decent Everton side, though ranked as the 9th best clean sheet bet for the week, it was hardly a huge surprise. I rated Blackburn's defense coming into the season and mentioned both Paul Robinson and Phil Jones before the season, however, Blackburn enjoyed very little possession against Everton - Yaya Toure completed more passes for City than the entire Rovers team - and against better teams that formula will not lead to clean sheets.

This week's trip to Birmingham is a good test for Allardyce's unit and if they get through it okay I think we can safely put Rovers into the decent mid-level defensive unit options. However, if they struggle to hold the ball again and look vulnerable it might be time to cut loose now given that they face Arsenal and City in GW3 and GW4. A quick note on Jones that may have been missed: he is lining up in midfield and was given man of the match by the pundits this week. That is a valuable combination and if Blackburn can show more defensive strength I think he is one of the best 4.5m options around.

Benoit Assou Ekotto: I held BAE for long chunks of last season and I was fairly satisfied with his performances for a while (3.20 PPG and 0.68 PPMS) though he never really excelled as I hoped. I feared for his place in the starting lineup this year as I wondered if either Bale or one of Spurs' several CBs would take the LB spot leaving BAE out in the fantasy wilderness. In fact he looked very good in GW1 and his left field partnership with Bale looked extremely promising. He was handed 2 bonus points which puts him in the pundit's eyes early on and opens the way for more rewards in the future. Spurs' defensive fixtures are good but not great so I wouldn't jump all over BAE per se, but if, like me, you are a Dawson owner, you might consider a switch if you have a spare transfer to allow for a bit of differentiation in your side (Dawson 25% owned, BAE 5%).

Marlon Harewood: Don't even think about it. There is a reason Harewood had no team until about a week before the season. Wigan are horrible and my Sunday league team may have scored 3 or 4 past them on Saturday.

James Milner: I wasn't expecting a big performance from the want-away midfielder but Milner played well by all accounts (I haven't seen the game) and grabbed the 3 bonus points. For all City's spending they don't really have any pundit favorites so Milner should be able to continue his bonus grabbing at Eastlands. I think Milner becomes a viable 9m option at City and should not only feature in most games, but also be protected by some very good players in Barry, Yaya Toure and De Jong. Assuming one of these makes way for Milner, you get a 4-2-3-1 shape with Milner playing alongside Silva and Tevez behind Balotelli with few defensive responsibilities. You can make a case that there is more talent there than that which surrounds either Lampard or Gerrard and thus Milner looks very interesting at 9m. He would currently by my 5th pick in midfielder regardless of price (Lampard, Gerrard, Cesc and Malouda still look very good) but when you take into account his lower price tag he might be ahead of anyone. I'm waiting a week or two for him to bed in, but then he will be very near the top of my transfer list, right around the time City play Bla, @Wig, New and @Bll in a 5 week spell.

Emmanuel Adebayor: Sell. I was on Ade before the season but he is far too expensive to ever be rested or rotated. Anelka, Bent and Defoe are much safer options who should finish the season with more points.

Mario Balotelli: I am excited by the arrival of Super Mario who dazzled me a couple of times in cameo appearances in the Champions League. As with most new arrivals I am staying away for now but as noted for Milner above, City have a good run of fixtures from GW4 on so if he can get into the team and prove his worth somewhere in that run he might be a nice option for anyone who is sick of Defoe/Anelka/Bent/Berbatov by that point. You have to think that Mancini plans to play Balotelli (that is of course if he had any say in who the board signed) so he should get plenty of chances to shine and his talent is undeniable. One to watch but hold off for now.

Wayne Rooney: Rooney looked a bit laboured against Newcastle and was clearly lacking both sharpness and confidence. I have little doubt that both of these will return but in the next 2 or 3 weeks the returns could be limited to the odd goal. His bonus points will be hurt by an inability to pursue his trademark closing down and passionate play and United have other strong options on the bench (Hernandez, Owen, Macheda) to pull Rooney off if he is struggling. For the immediate future I think Torres, Van Persie, Defoe and of course Drogba are all better options.

That round up turned into a bit of a random ramble so apologies if I lost any of you halfway through. I will be back very shortly with the GW2 preview include the usual clean sheet and captain rankings.