Play your (wild)card right

Four weeks in and I'm already ahead of last year's team. I played my wildcard in week 3 last year after picking too many risk-reward players that didn't pan out. The season turned out okay and I ended up 7,000th overall, after briefly flirting with the top 100 in mid season. The lesson being of course that playing your wildcard early in the season isn't necessarily a bad thing. Let's look at a couple of strategies you might want to consider for your wildcard:

Play it early on
It is essential in fantasy football to be near the top of your league early on as it becomes increasingly hard to make up ground on the opposition as the season unfolds. Teams tend to converge and often employ 5-8 players that seem to be present on most teams (see Ronaldo, Lampard, Gerrard, Vidic, Bosingwa and Schwarzer in 2008-09). It therefore makes sense to get your team right early on before it is too late.
A further advantage to playing your wildcard early on is that you can buy the hot players now before their price rises too much. Assuming your team is currently still worth 100m, you will be able to buy more for your money now than in 3 months time.
The disadvantage of course is that if you pickup injuries or your players lose form later in the season it will take you several weeks (or alot of points) to rectify the situation.

Play it when the injuries start to mount up
So far, not too many fantasy quality players have been injured, with Modric and Fabregas the only big names to pick up injuries so far (though the likes of Ferdinand, Zhirkov, Santa Cruz and Arteta have yet to feature for their respective teams). It is inevitable that some injuries will come and it is useful to have your wild card stashed away to rescue you in this situation.
The Champions League starts on 15 September, with the group stages running until 09 December. This is prime territory for injuries and rotations so the wildcard might be well played during this period. This is definitely the safest option and the one that will likely be used by most players.

Save the wildcard for a late season push
If your team is in contention by, say, week 25, the ability to repick your team and get all the form players could tip the league in your favor. You will be able to ride teams with something to play for and avoid those who are just playing the season out. For example, right now we would consider Villa defenders a fairly poor choice but come February when the new signings have settled in and the team might be pushing for Europe, they could be a great option.
The risk here is that your team is so far behind and that teams all look so similar that the wildcard's value is diminished.

My advice
The more I think about it, the more I think that playing your wildcard early on is the way to go. I'm not saying pull the trigger in week 5 if your team is okay but if you get a couple of injuries over the international break and a couple of your squad players aren't panning out then using your wildcard to get players such as Shawcross, Lennon or Adebayor will be beneficial before their price rises further. I am aiming to use mine in approximately week 8-10 when we have a good idea of how teams are shaping up after the transfer window, as well as the rotation consequences of the champions league.
Remember, when you do decide to play the wildcard, especially if you take this decision early, you must make long term decisions and not be too concerned with a favourable game that week. Many get overly concerned with double gameweeks and easy matchups and therefore make short term decisions which cripple their flexibility for the future. Good luck making this important call and let me know how your cards fall.

Tales from the Chalkboard

I've been using my favourite new analysis tool to look at some of the weekends performances to see if we can draw some conclusions on the future success of fantasy players. The analysis and fantasy impact for several key fantasy prospects can be found below:

Andrey Arshavin I spoke about Arshavin after the Portsmouth game, where I concluded that despite the lack of shots, the Russian magician was sufficiently involved in the action to still give value for money. However, with zero shots this week and only assist and no goals to his name despite Arsenal scoring 10 in their opening two games, I am a little concerned about his production. His passing analysis from the Portsmouth game is below:Arshavin played very deep - around the halfway line - and only played one ball into the box from his right sided position. His total pass total of 38 is okay as it shows that he isn't running the game as one might expect but is involved regularly none the less. I am far from ready to give up on Arshavin yet, though as mentioned previously I transferred him out in week 2 due to the bye week and games at United (week 4) and at City (week 5). The fixtures after that look great and I will be bringing Arshavin back in and giving him at least 4 weeks to prove he can be as good a fantasy player as in real life. If however the points do not come then you must be decisive and cut your losses. Despite the desire to avoid 'point chasing' its better to follow the crowd and be right than be defiantly wrong.

Morten Gamst Pedersen
Pedersen is a frustrating player who has never delivered on the promise shown during the 2006/07 season when he contributed 155 fantasy points including 6 goals and 12 assists. He appears to be in the first teams plans of Allardyce, having played 90 minutes in both Rovers' games this year, though has yet to contribute anything more than appearance points to date. However, a look at his passes from gameweeks 1 (left) and 3 (right) gives an indication that assists may start to come in the next few games:

In 2 games Pedersen has played no less 28 balls into the area, though admittedly only 5 of them have connected with their intended target. As the old cliche goes "you have to buy a ticket to win the lottery" and its clear that Pedersen is not shy with throwing the ball into the area. At 6.5m Pedersen is not extremely cheap and I think Malbranque (6m) and possibly Koumas (5.1m) are better value. However, 6.5m is a good price and pairing him with the aforementioned pair alongside two studs (Lampard and Gerrard) would make a very nice midfield of 5 players who will play every week and are arguably the focal point of their respective teams. Blackburn have a great run of game from weeks 4-7 but then have 3 red light games in the next 4 so I would either make a splash for Pedersen now or wait until week 12 when the fixture list opens up once more.

Carlos Tevez
Tevez is the most held City forward (9%) and he rewarded his owners with an assist yesterday against Wolves. However, I have voiced my concerns over the number of minutes the Argentinian will get in the year and a look at his chalkboard from yesterday brings up further questions:With just 19 touches in 72 minutes and only four touches even close to the box, Tevez is just simply not in the right positions to generate significant fantasy points. At 8.4m he is cheaper than his fellow City forwards, but with good reason. To consider him in the same class as Defoe (8.7m) and ahead of the likes of Bent (7.2m), Jones (7m) or Cole (7m) is crazy. His one redeeming feature were his 4 shots, but then only one hit the target. If you want to get in on the City revolution I'd advise either getting Adebayor or Ireland who, although more expensive, will deliver much better bang for your buck.

Scoring defenders
Gallas hit the headlines this weekend after scoring his 3rd goal in as many games for the Gunners. However, before getting overly excited it is worth looking at the nature of the goals and determining if they are chances designed specifically for that player (like Laursen and Lescott have had in previous years) or just random opportunities that fall to the feet (or face in Gallas's case on Saturday) of the player in question.
To date nine defenders have scored in the league, with Gallas getting on the scoresheet twice. According to Fox Sports, of these nine players four have converted all their shots for the season into goals (Gallas, Upson, Givet and Bassong) which suggests they are not being targeted from set pieces and should therefore not warrant extra consideration based on the offensive potential. Two players however stand out as genuine goal threats, namely Shawcross and Kaboul, who have had six and five shots so far this season respectively. This suggests that their teams are directing free kicks and corners their way and so they should contribute more goals this term. I cannot recommend a Portsmouth defender due to their awful defense but Shawcross looks to be great value at 4.7m though with 15% ownership this is far from a secret. Stoke have a couple of tricky fixtures in the next few weeks but Shawcross is the best sub 5m defender available and you should consider him for at least your bench.

2009/10 Game Launched

The new fantasy season is upon us, and a few thoughts initially spring to mind:

Rule changes
Not too much to note here, aside from two interesting tweaks to the rules:

1. "If you don't use your free transfer then you'll be able to make an additional free transfer the following gameweek. These saved transfers don't accumulate and can only be used the following gameweek". This allows for a build up of two free transfers for one gameweek which make double gameweeks even more valuable.
2. Creation of the 'emergency captain' selection tool. This suggests that if your captain does not play your most valuable/in form player will take the armband from him. This is not a major issue, as there are very few times when a marquee player does not play without us knowing with sufficient time to the make the adjustment.

Position changes
A couple of interesting classifications here that could lead to decent value being found:

Andrey Arshavin (M) - Rightfully moved from a Forward to a Midfield makes Arshavin a bit better value though at 11m he is still pricey. I very much liked the look of him in half a season last year and he is on my radar going into the new season.

Theo Walcott (M) - like Arshavin, the English winger has been correctly moved to midfield which again creates extra value. At 8m though I think he is overvalued until he improve on the consistency of his performances.

Ricardo Gardner (M) - the Jamaican has been some what out of favour in the Gary Megson era and this reclassification to midfield basically removes any value Ricardo may have offered.

Yuri Zhirkov (D) - not a reclassification as the Russian has only just come to England but interesting none the less. The left back can, and often does, operate on the wing and with only the inconsistent (though improving) Malouda ahead of him with a decent left peg, Zhirkov may register some minutes in a more advanced role. At 7.5m the rule makes have clearly recognised this and I would stay away until he has proven to be Ancellotti's first team full back or winger.

Clint Dempsey (M) - fantasy favourite Dempsey retains his midfield classification and again provides decent value due to the advanced role he often undertakes.

Nadir Belhadj (M) - provided great value at times last season, though the move to midfield diminishes this somewhat. Could still provide decent value at 5m but is not worth too much attention right now.

Savio (M) - A bit of a flyer here but the youngster has been tipped for stardom by Zola, and with only Ashton and Cole on the books as recognised strikers, the Ugandan may well get a chance to shine up front for the Hammers. Probably not worth buying out of the gates but definitely one for the shortlist.

Fixtures
I am looking at the opening fixtures now to help get a jump over the crucial early part of the season. It is worth noting that many teams miss at least one gameweek over the first 5, with Villa due to miss two as things stand. Further analysis on this to come soon.

Finally, I have re-started the league (code 51315-1622o) so please rejoin and tell your friends so we can enjoy another great season of fantasy discussion.