Clean Sheet Rankings
Captain Data
I've made a change to the captain stats this week, to account for the shot data we have, as discussed in previous posts. In the interest of time I won't go into the details here, but will add more backup over the weekend.
I imagine the main question will be Steve Fletcher's ranking and he has indeed presented a tricky issue for the current data setup. Cr% is essentially a team's forecast goals for a week multiplied by the share of goals an individual player accounts for. For Fletcher that is 100% which is clearly unsustainable but how do we adjust for that? The new xP90 metric regresses data to average shot rates and hence you will see Fletcher do worse there, but that's not simple when looking at things for a team. If Fletcher didn't score against Wigan this week, there's no telling what would have happened so you can't just say he 'should' have scored two goals so far and thus only accounts for 40% of Sunderland goals.
So, I'm asking readers to suggest ideas how to get around this. Luckily, it's a problem that will diminish with time but for now we get the somewhat odd situation where the metric predicts Fletcher to score 0.9 goals this week, calculated simply as 0.9 x 100%. Clearly these stats are a work in progress.
We've had some good discussions on the earlier piece of stabilising data so I encourage everyone to get involved in the comments, @plfantasy or on Facebook.
I've made a change to the captain stats this week, to account for the shot data we have, as discussed in previous posts. In the interest of time I won't go into the details here, but will add more backup over the weekend.
I imagine the main question will be Steve Fletcher's ranking and he has indeed presented a tricky issue for the current data setup. Cr% is essentially a team's forecast goals for a week multiplied by the share of goals an individual player accounts for. For Fletcher that is 100% which is clearly unsustainable but how do we adjust for that? The new xP90 metric regresses data to average shot rates and hence you will see Fletcher do worse there, but that's not simple when looking at things for a team. If Fletcher didn't score against Wigan this week, there's no telling what would have happened so you can't just say he 'should' have scored two goals so far and thus only accounts for 40% of Sunderland goals.
So, I'm asking readers to suggest ideas how to get around this. Luckily, it's a problem that will diminish with time but for now we get the somewhat odd situation where the metric predicts Fletcher to score 0.9 goals this week, calculated simply as 0.9 x 100%. Clearly these stats are a work in progress.
We've had some good discussions on the earlier piece of stabilising data so I encourage everyone to get involved in the comments, @plfantasy or on Facebook.
No comments:
Post a Comment