I could open here with an inspirational quote about experience simply being the name we give our mistakes, or that the Chinese symbol for crisis incorporates the brush stroke symbolizing opportunity. However, I'm neither (a) smart enough or (b) in a perky enough mood to do so. The deployment of my wildcard in gameweek 3 is not me seizing an opportunity, it is full blown damage limitation in what has been a disaster of a season to date.
I normally scribe a few random thoughts on wildcard usage as we approach the double digit gameweeks but seeing as I'm going through the thought process as we speak, I may as well add my rambling thoughts to the pages of the interweb for all to see (and based on the success of my preseason selection, ignore).
Scouting your own team: who to dump and who to keep
The exciting part of playing your wildcard is deciding who you want to bring in. Most likely you will have a couple of names in mind because they've impressed to date, have great fixtures coming up, come at a low price etc. We'll get to these in the next post but before we do, it's equally important to consider which of your current players to keep.
It's tempting to simply massacre the whole side, particularly in situations like this when you are on the back foot and playing catch up rather than deploying your wildcard at will in the later weeks of the season. The problem with that thinking is that it can cloud your judgement and lead to the same ill advised decisions which put you in this mess. Below are a couple of players, in no particular order who have seen a fall in price over the opening weeks or have generally been shunned but yet still have good prospects to bounce back:
David Silva - we all know how much I love Silva so his inclusion here isn't a huge surprise, but consider some facts. His chances created per minute top all of the top midfielders other than Cazorla while his 28 touches in the final third in just 91 minutes is tops in the whole league, adjusted for playing time. 4 shots (1 on target) isn't anything to salivate over, but again, on a per minute basis he would still compare favourably to his peers. We can't simply ignore playing time and I do fear that over the season Mancini is going to continue to frustrate, but given the fact that City looked fairly blunt without him against Liverpool, you have to think Silva will be locked into the team for the next few starts. I don't believe that contract negotiations are having an impact and believe this is purely a case of small sample sizes. With Hazard off this week and City facing QPR at home, he's staying on my own team for now.
Gareth Bale - With Spurs stuttering in the first couple of games it's easy to sleep on Bale but he's quietly continued where he left off last year, aside from the final product. His 7 shots place him 5th among all midfielders while his touches in the box ranks 4th. Throw in his 6 chances created (ranked 6th) and 13 crosses (4th) and you have the complete offensive arsenal he brought last year, just with no end product as yet. The reintroduction of Adebayor should help and though the Spurs midfield is somewhat congested, Bale looks to have the surest guarantee among pretty much all the elite midfielders in terms of playing time. Finally, the fixtures look simply irresistible with NOR, @RDG, QPR in the next three plus AVL, @SOU and WIG also due up over the next eight gameweeks. Bale is a buy option right now and his owners will surely be rewarded for a bit of loyalty.
Lukas Podolski - those first two players were no brainers for me but Podolski is less clear cut. Anecdotally I think he's looked good in the opening two games, which is significant as he was deployed in both roles he will occupy this year so we don't need to be overly concerned about who he lines up alongside. The stats however aren't encouraging with just 4 shots, none of which have forced a save from the goalie. Now, though I don't say it enough, stats don't tell the whole story and scouting with your eyes is also important, but however good a player looks, if he doesn't take shots, he doesn't score. Arsenal's fixtures are a mixed bag over the coming weeks which makes Podolski a risk to the point that if you own him and not Tevez you're probably making that move. If however, you own both, the German has shown just enough to stick around and thus he might earn a reprieve for a couple more weeks.
Kevin Nolan (et al) - He doesn't come with the excitement of a Michu but Nolan is who we thought he was: a decent player who gets into good positions and finishes with confidence and composure. The point here isn't so much about Nolan in particular (though I do like the former Bolton man), but more that the grass isn't always greener. Change for change's sake is not advised after just a couple of games and players in that mid-range category need to be given some time, providing their underlying stats are reasonable. It's rarely the best use of your transfers to keep switching between these mid-level options unless a true star emerges (we'll see how Michu goes over the next 4 or 5 weeks) so Nolan (or Walters, Larsson, Dembele etc) owners should think carefully before just assuming the other guy is better than the incumbent.
City defenders - Four goals in two games is obviously a somewhat disastrous start for a defense whose parts cost anywhere between 6.0-7.5m. Last season there was a correlation of 85% between shots surrendered inside the box and overall goals conceded. Four of the league's top five defenses in terms of clean sheets ranked atop the shot inside the box rankings with Newcastle being the only exception to the rule. This year City have given up just 12 shots in the box, good for a third place ranking behind Arsenal and Newcastle (who have ironically done much better in this category with much less fantasy success, seemingly doing so just to make me need to qualify every sentence I write in this pararaph).
In short, I have no doubt City will be just fine, with Mancini obviously targeting a tightening at the back, and hopefully a move away from the three-at-the-back formation which hasn't impressed over the past month or so. The only goal they've conceded this year which is slightly concerning is Southampton's second which City were slow to cover but the others either came from set pieces (which should be addressed in training and have never been a particular issue in the past) and one from a series of odd deflections.
The question remains as to which City players are safe to target but with Richards still out for a month and Kolo Toure highlighting his weaknesses this past week once again, you have to think that Kompany, Lescott and Zabaleta are as safe as most elite options for the foreseeable future. I'd be happy owning any of the trio but if playing your wildcard it appears to make sense to roll the dice with Zabaleta, so long as you accept that he will inevitably be rotated at some point soon (is anyone immune?)
Anyone else have any players off to a slow start we should still believe in? Post them below or send them to @plfantasy and I'll discuss them in tomorrow's post on which players I'm ready to give up on already (or at least sell).
I normally scribe a few random thoughts on wildcard usage as we approach the double digit gameweeks but seeing as I'm going through the thought process as we speak, I may as well add my rambling thoughts to the pages of the interweb for all to see (and based on the success of my preseason selection, ignore).
Scouting your own team: who to dump and who to keep
The exciting part of playing your wildcard is deciding who you want to bring in. Most likely you will have a couple of names in mind because they've impressed to date, have great fixtures coming up, come at a low price etc. We'll get to these in the next post but before we do, it's equally important to consider which of your current players to keep.
It's tempting to simply massacre the whole side, particularly in situations like this when you are on the back foot and playing catch up rather than deploying your wildcard at will in the later weeks of the season. The problem with that thinking is that it can cloud your judgement and lead to the same ill advised decisions which put you in this mess. Below are a couple of players, in no particular order who have seen a fall in price over the opening weeks or have generally been shunned but yet still have good prospects to bounce back:
David Silva - we all know how much I love Silva so his inclusion here isn't a huge surprise, but consider some facts. His chances created per minute top all of the top midfielders other than Cazorla while his 28 touches in the final third in just 91 minutes is tops in the whole league, adjusted for playing time. 4 shots (1 on target) isn't anything to salivate over, but again, on a per minute basis he would still compare favourably to his peers. We can't simply ignore playing time and I do fear that over the season Mancini is going to continue to frustrate, but given the fact that City looked fairly blunt without him against Liverpool, you have to think Silva will be locked into the team for the next few starts. I don't believe that contract negotiations are having an impact and believe this is purely a case of small sample sizes. With Hazard off this week and City facing QPR at home, he's staying on my own team for now.
Gareth Bale - With Spurs stuttering in the first couple of games it's easy to sleep on Bale but he's quietly continued where he left off last year, aside from the final product. His 7 shots place him 5th among all midfielders while his touches in the box ranks 4th. Throw in his 6 chances created (ranked 6th) and 13 crosses (4th) and you have the complete offensive arsenal he brought last year, just with no end product as yet. The reintroduction of Adebayor should help and though the Spurs midfield is somewhat congested, Bale looks to have the surest guarantee among pretty much all the elite midfielders in terms of playing time. Finally, the fixtures look simply irresistible with NOR, @RDG, QPR in the next three plus AVL, @SOU and WIG also due up over the next eight gameweeks. Bale is a buy option right now and his owners will surely be rewarded for a bit of loyalty.
Lukas Podolski - those first two players were no brainers for me but Podolski is less clear cut. Anecdotally I think he's looked good in the opening two games, which is significant as he was deployed in both roles he will occupy this year so we don't need to be overly concerned about who he lines up alongside. The stats however aren't encouraging with just 4 shots, none of which have forced a save from the goalie. Now, though I don't say it enough, stats don't tell the whole story and scouting with your eyes is also important, but however good a player looks, if he doesn't take shots, he doesn't score. Arsenal's fixtures are a mixed bag over the coming weeks which makes Podolski a risk to the point that if you own him and not Tevez you're probably making that move. If however, you own both, the German has shown just enough to stick around and thus he might earn a reprieve for a couple more weeks.
Kevin Nolan (et al) - He doesn't come with the excitement of a Michu but Nolan is who we thought he was: a decent player who gets into good positions and finishes with confidence and composure. The point here isn't so much about Nolan in particular (though I do like the former Bolton man), but more that the grass isn't always greener. Change for change's sake is not advised after just a couple of games and players in that mid-range category need to be given some time, providing their underlying stats are reasonable. It's rarely the best use of your transfers to keep switching between these mid-level options unless a true star emerges (we'll see how Michu goes over the next 4 or 5 weeks) so Nolan (or Walters, Larsson, Dembele etc) owners should think carefully before just assuming the other guy is better than the incumbent.
City defenders - Four goals in two games is obviously a somewhat disastrous start for a defense whose parts cost anywhere between 6.0-7.5m. Last season there was a correlation of 85% between shots surrendered inside the box and overall goals conceded. Four of the league's top five defenses in terms of clean sheets ranked atop the shot inside the box rankings with Newcastle being the only exception to the rule. This year City have given up just 12 shots in the box, good for a third place ranking behind Arsenal and Newcastle (who have ironically done much better in this category with much less fantasy success, seemingly doing so just to make me need to qualify every sentence I write in this pararaph).
In short, I have no doubt City will be just fine, with Mancini obviously targeting a tightening at the back, and hopefully a move away from the three-at-the-back formation which hasn't impressed over the past month or so. The only goal they've conceded this year which is slightly concerning is Southampton's second which City were slow to cover but the others either came from set pieces (which should be addressed in training and have never been a particular issue in the past) and one from a series of odd deflections.
The question remains as to which City players are safe to target but with Richards still out for a month and Kolo Toure highlighting his weaknesses this past week once again, you have to think that Kompany, Lescott and Zabaleta are as safe as most elite options for the foreseeable future. I'd be happy owning any of the trio but if playing your wildcard it appears to make sense to roll the dice with Zabaleta, so long as you accept that he will inevitably be rotated at some point soon (is anyone immune?)
Anyone else have any players off to a slow start we should still believe in? Post them below or send them to @plfantasy and I'll discuss them in tomorrow's post on which players I'm ready to give up on already (or at least sell).
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