P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG%Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.
We discussed some transfer targets yesterday so take a quick look over there if you're still unsure on who you want to bring in this week. A couple of readers noted that I neglected to mention the upcoming FA Cup final, which is a fair point, though it's something which doesn't have a huge impact on the week. If you own Liverpool or Chelsea players you're going to play them regardless, on the assumption that they will get at least 90 minutes, and I'm not sure any of them are great transfer targets anyway, with perhaps the exception of Mata who I highlighted in yesterday's piece. The cup final probably puts a slight knock against him but I'd still take what is likely going to be full game against QPR at home and then a chance at decent minutes against Newcastle (a must win game, by the way) than stick with someone with just a single game.
I've talked about Cisse at length over the past couple of weeks so I won't dwell on it again here. The situation is fairly simple: he can't continue to score goals at his current rate, based on the number of chances he is getting, but when the regression comes is less clear. I understand the idea behind riding a hot streak, even if I'm not sure it's rooted in fact, and without too many other great options this, he makes a very solid play. Just be sure to understand the risks too.
Without the recent injury and possible dressing room unrest, I would have comfortably handed Adebayor the arm band this week but now the situation is a tricky one for fantasy managers. If he's healthy I think he plays as Redknapp can't afford to let egos get in the way of their chase for Champions League football. That, of course, is a big 'if' with Physio Room suggesting he will be fit, while the pl.com officials are less clear giving him only a 50% chance. I think you have to go with Cisse over him unless we get clearer evidence that he faces Blackburn on Sunday, though I still like Adebayor over some of the more established captain picks like Rooney, Van Persie or Aguero, providing that is, we don't get any more negative news.
For the double gameweekers you should probably put more emphasis on the xPct column as this is only data which accounts for the extra expected goals scored by a player's team. That leads you to players like Gareth Bale, Frank Lampard and, I suppose, Jermaine Defoe though I wouldn't touch the latter given the uncertainty around who'll play up top for Spurs. I would look at Lampard if was playing my wildcard or had two free transfers to spare but otherwise he still doesn't represent great upside for his price tag. I like Bale more than the stats given his excellent underlying numbers (not reflected in the formula) and probably like him the most among midfielders this week.
While Rooney has enjoyed success in the Manchester derby before, the odds aren't in his favor and I wouldn't consider him a captain pick this week. Of the non-double gameweekers I would likely look towards Van Persie, despite his blip in production of late, though again he doesn't look like an outstanding play. A few managers have floated the idea of ditching Rooney or van Persie in favour of one of the double gameweekers this week, but take quick look at the upcoming rankings before doing so:
Cisse comes out on top over the remaining three gameweeks but van Persie is tied for the final two gameweeks, which when you consider the regression we are suggesting Cisse is due, suggests that bailing on the Dutchman for the Newcastle hit-man is premature. If you believe van Persie has really taken a step back and Cisse can out shoot Leo Messi, make the move, but if you believe in the regression argument then van Persie remains the better option for GW37 and 38 and thus some caution should be exercised.
As for Rooney, that is a close call as he faces a tough game in GW38 which dampens our expectations a bit. Statistically the pick is therefore Cisse, though some realism has to be baked into our expectations and the chance of a Sunderland side with nothing to play for keeping United out if they need a win to clinch the title looks slim.
I know some readers think I am too conservative with this kind of move, and honestly, my approach will almost certainly prevent you from winning the whole pl.com game (to do you need to take gambles and be first to market numerous times). If however, you're happy to go with a somewhat conservative, but rational approach, I am much more comfortable using Cisse as a third forward alongside the elite pair and looking to gain ground on your competition elsewhere in your team (perhaps double down on Everton defenders or nab Juan Mata etc).
Let's wrap this up then before I get further off track. I will make an extra effort to get on to answer reader questions this week as I'm sure the majority of us have bigger issues to deal with, rather than the normal Vorm v Mignolet toss up. For Twitter fans, the @plfantasy handle is now free of other non-fantasy nonsense so if my baseball ramblings have turned anyone off, come on back!
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