Thursday, February 9, 2012

Gameweek 25 Captain Data



P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG% Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.

I've finally taken the plunge and tried to provide some hard rankings rather than just objective data. The rating column is based on a player's performance in the other three categories, currently weighted towards the xPct ranking, which I believe to be the best indicator of future success. Over the next few weeks I am going to be posting a few reviews to try and determine the best weighting for each of these factors but until then I simply going with 50% xPct, 25% P90 and 25% QG%. I feel this gives the best chance to recognise underrated players, without giving too much attention to players who have played sporadically (Drenthe kept popping up in the old rankings) and also avoiding overvaluing players who assist too many goals (who obviously pickup less points than their goalscoring colleagues).

I must say, I am surprised to see Ba come in second as he has a much harder fixture than Bale, Dempsey and even Rooney on paper, but when you're accounting for 59% of your team's goals (second only to Van Persie's 65%) you're always going to be riding high.

After last week's captain-gate I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention that Van Persie is still due for a rest at some point and Arsenal have to travel to Milan in midweek. You wonder though if he will try and power through until Gervinho returns from the ACN, although Chamakh is said to be fit again. I guess the lesson last week, if there was one, is probably to not be overly concerned with downside in the face of such extreme upside. Blackburn at home is about as good as it gets on paper and the risk of a 1 point effort was probably eclipsed by the potential spoils Van Persie could (and did) bring to your team. This week is less clear cut and the decision to opt for a Rooney or Bale is probably more logical. At the moment though, I am sticking with Van Persie (caveat emptor for all).

I will try and add to this tomorrow night with any late fitness or team news, but if nothing emerges, the rankings for the week will stay as they are above.

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