Common sense would lead us to believe that goals per game should decrease in the winter months. The best teams start to 'settle down' and 'make their push' for the title while rainy nights in Stoke get harder to manage as the elements take their toll on the playing surfaces.
However, 'common sense' can often lead us astray so I thought we should look at the actual numbers.
The percentage of games in which teams keep clean sheets has been pretty consistent over the years:
If you limit games to just January and February, we can see the impact of the winter months:
Over 80 games in January and February these trends are going to lead to 4 or 5 extra clean sheets, which is promising but nothing to get overly excited about.
What though, if we limit our search to the 'big teams', the ones who are supposed to be locking in on their way to the big title push. Isn't this the time of year when the United's of the world prove their mettle?
Let's look at the data for the past four seasons:
Not exactly what we were expecting. Aside from Arsenal (who probably wouldn't be considered an elite defensive team at the best of times) and United, the 'elite' sides actually take a slight backwards step in terms of clean sheets kept in January and February. Even United, the supposed kings of the second half, only show a minor improvement (though from a loftier starting position).
Not all analysis will lead to a positive action, some will lead us to not do something. Here, I think we can conclude that defense is not necessarily a major solution to our problems and a different strategy shouldn't really be undertaken in the coming months. With the top teams all having their shaky defensive moments this year, it seems safest to continue with the likes of Enrique, Jones and Richards but continue to avoid going overboard with multiple defenders from any one team.
Next time I will look at goals scored over the next couple of months and see if any particular trends emerge historically.
However, 'common sense' can often lead us astray so I thought we should look at the actual numbers.
The percentage of games in which teams keep clean sheets has been pretty consistent over the years:
2007-08 | 29% |
2008-09 | 33% |
2009-10 | 29% |
2010-11 | 25% |
2011-12 | 26% |
If you limit games to just January and February, we can see the impact of the winter months:
Over 80 games in January and February these trends are going to lead to 4 or 5 extra clean sheets, which is promising but nothing to get overly excited about.
What though, if we limit our search to the 'big teams', the ones who are supposed to be locking in on their way to the big title push. Isn't this the time of year when the United's of the world prove their mettle?
Let's look at the data for the past four seasons:
Not exactly what we were expecting. Aside from Arsenal (who probably wouldn't be considered an elite defensive team at the best of times) and United, the 'elite' sides actually take a slight backwards step in terms of clean sheets kept in January and February. Even United, the supposed kings of the second half, only show a minor improvement (though from a loftier starting position).
Not all analysis will lead to a positive action, some will lead us to not do something. Here, I think we can conclude that defense is not necessarily a major solution to our problems and a different strategy shouldn't really be undertaken in the coming months. With the top teams all having their shaky defensive moments this year, it seems safest to continue with the likes of Enrique, Jones and Richards but continue to avoid going overboard with multiple defenders from any one team.
Next time I will look at goals scored over the next couple of months and see if any particular trends emerge historically.
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