@McShambles Is Elliott Bennett worth a punt as my 5th midfielder now that Brunt is injured? Two assists in last two games for Norwich and 4.8
No one in that Norwich side has been able to lock into the first team and with just two starts since GW12 I don't think Bennett is the answer here. I still like B Johnson the most from the Canaries but would still rank him behind Moses and Faurlin who remain atop my budget mid list. Gower has fallen away having struggled to log consistent minutes over the Christmas period.
@CSJDKK will u be making a list of prem players going to the African Cup?
I will try and do a post on this, but in the mean time, Fantasy Football Scout has a nice summary here.
nsj91 - Chris (or anyone else for that matter).. do you have any suggestions on the ideal week to play the january wildcard?
It's going to be subjective based on your team's performance and injuries but given that we only have 3 gameweeks to use the extra wildcard, if you need to make changes, do so now. We have 18 gameweeks yet to go and assuming you still have both wildcards left, you want to maximise both of them. It therefore makes sense to break the fixtures into two groups (say, GW21-30 and GW30-38) and plan to use your wildcards to capitalise on both. If you only have the freebie left then you need to plan for the entire season and can make less short term decisions (such as looking at someone like Torres who will greatly benefit from the African Cup of Nations).
DtotheT - what would your opinion be on losing Aguero for Yakubu? Obviously frees up a serious amount of funds i.e. allows Sessegnon for Tiote, Kompany for Gabbiddon. I already have Silva Bale Nani Van Persie and Adebayor.
I don't consider Aguero to be a must own player but I'd be wary of downgrading to Yakubu to then only grab solid performers with the freed up funds. The elite players have been just that this year and I would suggest having several stars and a group of scrubs is a better way to go than stacking your team with mid range options. It's far from guaranteed that a Sessegnon will significantly outscore the mids available in that ~5m group, and while I still like City's defence, they don't necessarily represent amazing value over some of the less-fancied teams (Swansea) or some of the budget options available at the big teams (Evans). Given the quality of your other players, it might be that your bench is really stretched thin and thus the move makes sense, but as a general rule I'd lean towards more, not less, stars.
Chris - Is it really advisable to keep the likes of Phil Jones and Richards/Kompany at the same time? Looking at the top teams, it seems that most put more emphasis on midfield and forward and stack the back with budget defenders.
This is one of the decisions that will define the second half. Historically you need to have coverage of at least a couple of the elite sides. Ideally you would get this via cheaper routes (like Enrique at the start of the season and Evans at the moment) but leaning too heavily on the Swansea's on the world tended to be a bad idea. However, the inconsistency of the big sides is a concern and the likes of Kompany or Jones are no longer guaranteed consistently high returns.
United and City are still 1st and 3rd in clean sheets though so in terms of absolute points I still they deserve ownership. The issue of value is a different question and one that turns on where else you will use that cash. I would absolutely take a ~6m defender and a ~4.5m midfielder than a ~4.5m defender and a ~6m midfielder as I really don't see much improvement in the midfield options until you get to the 6.5m range. Sessegnon and Walters are the pick of the mid-range midfielders but they both cost as much as Kompany and have just a couple more points. Kompany's future production is much more predictable and thus I'd still prefer to own him from that group.
I will try and find a way to quantify these thoughts and put them into a more coherent post, but in short, I think the City/United defenders remain good value, but not the must own players they once were.
Vanilla - it seems to me that although the quantity of clean sheets to go around may be similar to previous years, they are difficult to predict this season. Is there any easy way to take this analysis, Chris, and scrub against your "gameweek preview" data?
This is a great idea, and something I thought about doing last year but never got around to doing. I will compare the expected goals per game with the actual result which will give us an idea of which teams are the most 'predictable'. A team who gets a predictable 6 clean sheets will have just as much value as a great team who get 9 clean sheets but do so in games in which you'd never start them (vs United, at Arsenal etc) but will likely come at a lower price.
Vanilla - What's everyone's take on Thierry Henry ? Seems like he might get a few games: the coach loves him, and a 2month loan deal is a welcome extra-man for rotating players that need a day off
It's going to take all my self restraint not to chase Henry but given that Chamakh was priced at 8.0m it's likely that the legend's price tag will be simply too high to consider. I don't watch MLS enough to know what kind of pace Henry has maintained but it's doubtful he can explode back on the scene in just 2 months to justify a price tag higher than Ba or Dzeko.
Remember the above paragraph when Henry scores against Leeds on Monday and I add a new post saying he is a must own player. I CANNOT be trusted when it comes to the great one!
Wildcard proposals
Raddz
Current team
Vorm, Given : Assou-Ekkoto, Jones, Enrique, Evans, N Taylor : Silva, Valencia, Bale, Dyer, Tiote : Van Persie, Aderbayor, Morrison
Proposed team
Vorm, Hennessey : Assou-Ekkoto, Jones, Enrique, Simpson, N Taylor : Silva, Valencia, Bale, Sessegnon, Dyer : Van Persie, Aderbayor, Sturridge
On paper, Vorm and Hennessey make a good but not great combo, though Stooshermadness makes a solid point in that Hennessey can be bailed out by his save totals. With Vorm being so good this year it makes sense to pair him with a cheaper option as he will probably play 60%+ of your games (basically every home game and some road games against the weaker sides). I like the potential of Sunderland under O'Neil and might therefore go with Mignolet but I like the proposed move too.
I still like Assou Ekotto for the medium term, though I'd agree that Spurs hit a tricky spot from GW26 onwards and thus you'll need a backup plan for him if you keep him here. I might be tempted to hang on to Evans given United's next fixture (Bolton H) though I understand this a a risk and so I wouldn't argue with making this move either. Again I like Stoosher's idea to flip Jones to Evans, though this will depend on (a) how much money you lose on Jones as if you bought him at 5.5m you won't be able to get him back without wasting money and (b) how you can use the money saved.
I like the midfield with Silva and Bale looking like sure-fire bets right now. Dyer has been up and down but I like him considering you probably have him at 4.5m. I like Sessegnon but I think Valencia is overpriced given his deployment as an emergency right back and the imminent return of Young who will steal some minutes back. His underlying stats aren't particularly impressive and I would much rather have Dempsey if your budget will stretch.
It's tough to argue with that front three which looks great and gives you three players who you feel comfortable starting every week (Sturridge is even more valuable with Drogba departing for the ACN).
It's a great looking team but the overall caveat I would add which applies to everyone is to consider differentiation too. You of course want to pick players who have performed well, but also those who you like to have a big second half. There aren't any particular red flags here but it is worth bearing in mind.
CDI
Current team
Vorm, Ruddy : Enrique, Jones, BAE, Evans, Senderos : Bale, Nani, Silva, Osman, Drenthe : Ade, Ba RVP
Proposed team
Vorm, Sorensen : Enrique, Jones, BAE, Shotton, Kelly : Bale, Nani, Silva, Dempsy, Sessegnon : Adebayor, Yak, RVP
Vorm and Sorensen make a really nice pair though you have some risk in that Begovic might regain his place at some point. That wouldn't necessarily put me off though and I like the upgrade over Ruddy for the money. I agree with ditching Senderos but I'm not sure Kelly is a long term solution either. Baird and Hughes are big threats to play RB too and I'd say at this point you really need to either pay for Riise or switch Sorensen to Stockdale. Shotton is tempting given his price but I'm not sure you want two Stoke defenders given their two clean sheets in the last 13 gameweeks. I would prefer to double up on Swansea (N Taylor or Caulker) or go with Newcastle (Simpson).
I love the midfield and my only word of caution would be that you don't have any differentiation. It's hard to balance between not chasing historical points but yet also not being too cute with your selections and the safest move is definitely the path you have taken. Be mindful though that your unlikely to catch the leaders with these selections.
The front line is good again, especially considering the fact that Yakubu is essentially relegated to the bench in most weeks as your midfield is so strong. In terms of value and pure production Ade and RvP might be the best two forwards to select at the moment.
Mitchell Sterling
Proposed team
Vorm, Stockdale : Kompany, Enrique, Evans, McAuley, Caulker, Bale, Silva, Walters, Sessegnon, Moses, Van Persie, Aguero, Adebayor
There's no arguing with any of your selection as while I'm not keen on West Brom's defense, McAuley is clearly your third sub and thus will rarely play.
My gut says that there will be better players than Walters and Sessegnon in the second half, as those mid-range options rarely deliver a full great season. Both are deployed further up the field than their classification though so they could well be exceptions to that trend. I might be tempted to go with Dempsey and a budget midfielder which as you will often have the opportunity to play a 4-3-3 when Caulker has a good fixture. You need a strong bench but it's tough to bench ~6.5m players on a regular basis.
Thanks for all the questions this week. Keep them coming and I'll try and answer another round with next week's GW21 preview. I have a few other pieces due this week including some wildcard thoughts and the aforementioned words on the African Cup of Nations.
No one in that Norwich side has been able to lock into the first team and with just two starts since GW12 I don't think Bennett is the answer here. I still like B Johnson the most from the Canaries but would still rank him behind Moses and Faurlin who remain atop my budget mid list. Gower has fallen away having struggled to log consistent minutes over the Christmas period.
@CSJDKK will u be making a list of prem players going to the African Cup?
I will try and do a post on this, but in the mean time, Fantasy Football Scout has a nice summary here.
nsj91 - Chris (or anyone else for that matter).. do you have any suggestions on the ideal week to play the january wildcard?
It's going to be subjective based on your team's performance and injuries but given that we only have 3 gameweeks to use the extra wildcard, if you need to make changes, do so now. We have 18 gameweeks yet to go and assuming you still have both wildcards left, you want to maximise both of them. It therefore makes sense to break the fixtures into two groups (say, GW21-30 and GW30-38) and plan to use your wildcards to capitalise on both. If you only have the freebie left then you need to plan for the entire season and can make less short term decisions (such as looking at someone like Torres who will greatly benefit from the African Cup of Nations).
DtotheT - what would your opinion be on losing Aguero for Yakubu? Obviously frees up a serious amount of funds i.e. allows Sessegnon for Tiote, Kompany for Gabbiddon. I already have Silva Bale Nani Van Persie and Adebayor.
I don't consider Aguero to be a must own player but I'd be wary of downgrading to Yakubu to then only grab solid performers with the freed up funds. The elite players have been just that this year and I would suggest having several stars and a group of scrubs is a better way to go than stacking your team with mid range options. It's far from guaranteed that a Sessegnon will significantly outscore the mids available in that ~5m group, and while I still like City's defence, they don't necessarily represent amazing value over some of the less-fancied teams (Swansea) or some of the budget options available at the big teams (Evans). Given the quality of your other players, it might be that your bench is really stretched thin and thus the move makes sense, but as a general rule I'd lean towards more, not less, stars.
Chris - Is it really advisable to keep the likes of Phil Jones and Richards/Kompany at the same time? Looking at the top teams, it seems that most put more emphasis on midfield and forward and stack the back with budget defenders.
This is one of the decisions that will define the second half. Historically you need to have coverage of at least a couple of the elite sides. Ideally you would get this via cheaper routes (like Enrique at the start of the season and Evans at the moment) but leaning too heavily on the Swansea's on the world tended to be a bad idea. However, the inconsistency of the big sides is a concern and the likes of Kompany or Jones are no longer guaranteed consistently high returns.
United and City are still 1st and 3rd in clean sheets though so in terms of absolute points I still they deserve ownership. The issue of value is a different question and one that turns on where else you will use that cash. I would absolutely take a ~6m defender and a ~4.5m midfielder than a ~4.5m defender and a ~6m midfielder as I really don't see much improvement in the midfield options until you get to the 6.5m range. Sessegnon and Walters are the pick of the mid-range midfielders but they both cost as much as Kompany and have just a couple more points. Kompany's future production is much more predictable and thus I'd still prefer to own him from that group.
I will try and find a way to quantify these thoughts and put them into a more coherent post, but in short, I think the City/United defenders remain good value, but not the must own players they once were.
Vanilla - it seems to me that although the quantity of clean sheets to go around may be similar to previous years, they are difficult to predict this season. Is there any easy way to take this analysis, Chris, and scrub against your "gameweek preview" data?
This is a great idea, and something I thought about doing last year but never got around to doing. I will compare the expected goals per game with the actual result which will give us an idea of which teams are the most 'predictable'. A team who gets a predictable 6 clean sheets will have just as much value as a great team who get 9 clean sheets but do so in games in which you'd never start them (vs United, at Arsenal etc) but will likely come at a lower price.
Vanilla - What's everyone's take on Thierry Henry ? Seems like he might get a few games: the coach loves him, and a 2month loan deal is a welcome extra-man for rotating players that need a day off
It's going to take all my self restraint not to chase Henry but given that Chamakh was priced at 8.0m it's likely that the legend's price tag will be simply too high to consider. I don't watch MLS enough to know what kind of pace Henry has maintained but it's doubtful he can explode back on the scene in just 2 months to justify a price tag higher than Ba or Dzeko.
Remember the above paragraph when Henry scores against Leeds on Monday and I add a new post saying he is a must own player. I CANNOT be trusted when it comes to the great one!
Wildcard proposals
Raddz
Current team
Vorm, Given : Assou-Ekkoto, Jones, Enrique, Evans, N Taylor : Silva, Valencia, Bale, Dyer, Tiote : Van Persie, Aderbayor, Morrison
Proposed team
Vorm, Hennessey : Assou-Ekkoto, Jones, Enrique, Simpson, N Taylor : Silva, Valencia, Bale, Sessegnon, Dyer : Van Persie, Aderbayor, Sturridge
On paper, Vorm and Hennessey make a good but not great combo, though Stooshermadness makes a solid point in that Hennessey can be bailed out by his save totals. With Vorm being so good this year it makes sense to pair him with a cheaper option as he will probably play 60%+ of your games (basically every home game and some road games against the weaker sides). I like the potential of Sunderland under O'Neil and might therefore go with Mignolet but I like the proposed move too.
I still like Assou Ekotto for the medium term, though I'd agree that Spurs hit a tricky spot from GW26 onwards and thus you'll need a backup plan for him if you keep him here. I might be tempted to hang on to Evans given United's next fixture (Bolton H) though I understand this a a risk and so I wouldn't argue with making this move either. Again I like Stoosher's idea to flip Jones to Evans, though this will depend on (a) how much money you lose on Jones as if you bought him at 5.5m you won't be able to get him back without wasting money and (b) how you can use the money saved.
I like the midfield with Silva and Bale looking like sure-fire bets right now. Dyer has been up and down but I like him considering you probably have him at 4.5m. I like Sessegnon but I think Valencia is overpriced given his deployment as an emergency right back and the imminent return of Young who will steal some minutes back. His underlying stats aren't particularly impressive and I would much rather have Dempsey if your budget will stretch.
It's tough to argue with that front three which looks great and gives you three players who you feel comfortable starting every week (Sturridge is even more valuable with Drogba departing for the ACN).
It's a great looking team but the overall caveat I would add which applies to everyone is to consider differentiation too. You of course want to pick players who have performed well, but also those who you like to have a big second half. There aren't any particular red flags here but it is worth bearing in mind.
CDI
Current team
Vorm, Ruddy : Enrique, Jones, BAE, Evans, Senderos : Bale, Nani, Silva, Osman, Drenthe : Ade, Ba RVP
Proposed team
Vorm, Sorensen : Enrique, Jones, BAE, Shotton, Kelly : Bale, Nani, Silva, Dempsy, Sessegnon : Adebayor, Yak, RVP
Vorm and Sorensen make a really nice pair though you have some risk in that Begovic might regain his place at some point. That wouldn't necessarily put me off though and I like the upgrade over Ruddy for the money. I agree with ditching Senderos but I'm not sure Kelly is a long term solution either. Baird and Hughes are big threats to play RB too and I'd say at this point you really need to either pay for Riise or switch Sorensen to Stockdale. Shotton is tempting given his price but I'm not sure you want two Stoke defenders given their two clean sheets in the last 13 gameweeks. I would prefer to double up on Swansea (N Taylor or Caulker) or go with Newcastle (Simpson).
I love the midfield and my only word of caution would be that you don't have any differentiation. It's hard to balance between not chasing historical points but yet also not being too cute with your selections and the safest move is definitely the path you have taken. Be mindful though that your unlikely to catch the leaders with these selections.
The front line is good again, especially considering the fact that Yakubu is essentially relegated to the bench in most weeks as your midfield is so strong. In terms of value and pure production Ade and RvP might be the best two forwards to select at the moment.
Mitchell Sterling
Proposed team
Vorm, Stockdale : Kompany, Enrique, Evans, McAuley, Caulker, Bale, Silva, Walters, Sessegnon, Moses, Van Persie, Aguero, Adebayor
There's no arguing with any of your selection as while I'm not keen on West Brom's defense, McAuley is clearly your third sub and thus will rarely play.
My gut says that there will be better players than Walters and Sessegnon in the second half, as those mid-range options rarely deliver a full great season. Both are deployed further up the field than their classification though so they could well be exceptions to that trend. I might be tempted to go with Dempsey and a budget midfielder which as you will often have the opportunity to play a 4-3-3 when Caulker has a good fixture. You need a strong bench but it's tough to bench ~6.5m players on a regular basis.
Thanks for all the questions this week. Keep them coming and I'll try and answer another round with next week's GW21 preview. I have a few other pieces due this week including some wildcard thoughts and the aforementioned words on the African Cup of Nations.
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