P90 Points per 90 minutes at home/away based on the player's fixture QG Number of quality games for the season (6 or more points) BG Number of bad games for the season (3 points or less) % Percentage of team goals scored or assisted SD Standard deviation of player scores (risk) Rating Percentage of team goals accounted for multiplied by expected team goals for the week.
A couple of readers last week said it might be helpful to get a bit of context for the above stats, so below are a few of highlights for the week:
Everything points to Van Persie for the week, so while I generally stress that the 'Rating' column is not a pure ranking, he would indeed be my number one pick this week. No one can match his combination of upside and consistency. Given the home fixtures enjoyed by Spurs and Man Utd it's rare I will categorically take a road team but Bolton aren't much better at home than they are away, making Van Persie a very good play this week.
Rooney will gain a lot of attention this week, and rightly so, though I'm slightly troubled by his recent performances. His home P90 is very impressive (7.3) but if you look at just the last six games at Old Trafford that number drops to just 5.0, largely due to the removal of his massive GW3 haul. Now I don't want to play around with numbers too much just to fit the narrative but he has clearly struggled for consistency (with his production if not his underlying performance stats which remain strong). Given my suspicion regarding 'form', I'd suggest Ronney is a regression candidate and should start taking his chances more frequently going forward, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to bet my captain's armband on it. For the record, I love Valencia as an asset to own but I'm not sure I'm ready to throw him too much captain consideration just yet.
It's rare that the City boys aren't considered great plays in a given week but their trip to Everton is tricky compared to some of the other fixtures around this week and they go into the game in dangerous, but inconsistent, form. Aguero is the obvious pick but with Balotelli out, Dzeko is looking like a very interesting option, especially if you put any stock in his home performances to date (small sample size alert!). Silva's main appeal is his consistency, as evidenced by his SD of 3.4. None of the other elite options have a floor as high as Silva, who seems to notch at least some points every time he takes the field (his 7 BG in 22 appearances is also the best mark among elite options). There's an argument to be made for always captaining a player of Aguero's quality but if you're following the stats, it's likely you'll have a better option available this week.
Adebayor, Van der Vaart and particularly Bale will get a lot of attention this week too, and with Wigan coming to town the optimism is well placed. Spurs' fixture is comparable to Arsenal's, arguably a touch better given that teams tend to hit their potential more at home than on the road. The problem is that the Spurs trio are all aiming for a piece of the same pie. All three have managed their fair share of quality games this year, and one of them has managed a QG in every game for Spurs bar three. The problem is that only six games have seen two of them notch 6 or more points and this hasn't happened since GW12. By captaining one from this group then, you are really taking an educated guess as to which of the trio will enjoy the success this week. It may seem obvious that it would be Bale but don't forget that both Adebayor (GW11-18) and Van der Vaart (GW6-10) have both enjoyed their own spell of fantasy dominance this year. Of the three I would take the safe play with Bale, but I am actually considering an official 'recommend' stamp for Van der Vaart for the next few weeks, who essentially brings everything Bale does, along with an increased threat from set pieces.
Dempsey is sure to get a look from many this week after his hattrick last week, and while I don't put much stock in prior results, his performances of late have screamed of a player ready to start scoring plenty of goals. Fulham's ceiling as a team will never be able to match the big boys so you're hoping Dempsey's increased importance in that team equalises that fact. Those 12 BGs terrify me and were the main reason I passed on him as captain last week. That said, if you look at how Dempsey has done against weaker opponents at home, the results have generally been very good so there is at least some basis for believing he will notch one of those 8-10 point games. Risky, but I see the logic.
The pleasing thing about the 'rating' category this week is that it is throwing up a good mix of familiar and obvious names, along with a couple of wildcards who people may not be thinking too much about. Bellamy and Zamora have been extremely successful when they've played this year and both should get another chance for success this week. You have to caution against the very small sample size these numbers are based on, but they've taken their chances so far so you wouldn't be amazed to see at least a large portion of this success continue. I'd still probably rate both as third forwards though, unless you decide to go huge in midfield. They are only captain options if you're starting to get desperate to start making ground with opponents whose team is largely similar to yours.
A couple of readers last week said it might be helpful to get a bit of context for the above stats, so below are a few of highlights for the week:
Everything points to Van Persie for the week, so while I generally stress that the 'Rating' column is not a pure ranking, he would indeed be my number one pick this week. No one can match his combination of upside and consistency. Given the home fixtures enjoyed by Spurs and Man Utd it's rare I will categorically take a road team but Bolton aren't much better at home than they are away, making Van Persie a very good play this week.
Rooney will gain a lot of attention this week, and rightly so, though I'm slightly troubled by his recent performances. His home P90 is very impressive (7.3) but if you look at just the last six games at Old Trafford that number drops to just 5.0, largely due to the removal of his massive GW3 haul. Now I don't want to play around with numbers too much just to fit the narrative but he has clearly struggled for consistency (with his production if not his underlying performance stats which remain strong). Given my suspicion regarding 'form', I'd suggest Ronney is a regression candidate and should start taking his chances more frequently going forward, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to bet my captain's armband on it. For the record, I love Valencia as an asset to own but I'm not sure I'm ready to throw him too much captain consideration just yet.
It's rare that the City boys aren't considered great plays in a given week but their trip to Everton is tricky compared to some of the other fixtures around this week and they go into the game in dangerous, but inconsistent, form. Aguero is the obvious pick but with Balotelli out, Dzeko is looking like a very interesting option, especially if you put any stock in his home performances to date (small sample size alert!). Silva's main appeal is his consistency, as evidenced by his SD of 3.4. None of the other elite options have a floor as high as Silva, who seems to notch at least some points every time he takes the field (his 7 BG in 22 appearances is also the best mark among elite options). There's an argument to be made for always captaining a player of Aguero's quality but if you're following the stats, it's likely you'll have a better option available this week.
Adebayor, Van der Vaart and particularly Bale will get a lot of attention this week too, and with Wigan coming to town the optimism is well placed. Spurs' fixture is comparable to Arsenal's, arguably a touch better given that teams tend to hit their potential more at home than on the road. The problem is that the Spurs trio are all aiming for a piece of the same pie. All three have managed their fair share of quality games this year, and one of them has managed a QG in every game for Spurs bar three. The problem is that only six games have seen two of them notch 6 or more points and this hasn't happened since GW12. By captaining one from this group then, you are really taking an educated guess as to which of the trio will enjoy the success this week. It may seem obvious that it would be Bale but don't forget that both Adebayor (GW11-18) and Van der Vaart (GW6-10) have both enjoyed their own spell of fantasy dominance this year. Of the three I would take the safe play with Bale, but I am actually considering an official 'recommend' stamp for Van der Vaart for the next few weeks, who essentially brings everything Bale does, along with an increased threat from set pieces.
Dempsey is sure to get a look from many this week after his hattrick last week, and while I don't put much stock in prior results, his performances of late have screamed of a player ready to start scoring plenty of goals. Fulham's ceiling as a team will never be able to match the big boys so you're hoping Dempsey's increased importance in that team equalises that fact. Those 12 BGs terrify me and were the main reason I passed on him as captain last week. That said, if you look at how Dempsey has done against weaker opponents at home, the results have generally been very good so there is at least some basis for believing he will notch one of those 8-10 point games. Risky, but I see the logic.
The pleasing thing about the 'rating' category this week is that it is throwing up a good mix of familiar and obvious names, along with a couple of wildcards who people may not be thinking too much about. Bellamy and Zamora have been extremely successful when they've played this year and both should get another chance for success this week. You have to caution against the very small sample size these numbers are based on, but they've taken their chances so far so you wouldn't be amazed to see at least a large portion of this success continue. I'd still probably rate both as third forwards though, unless you decide to go huge in midfield. They are only captain options if you're starting to get desperate to start making ground with opponents whose team is largely similar to yours.
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