Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Gameweek 22 Captain Data

Something which has bothered me this year are the weekly captain rankings, as I find they generally descend into the standard conjecture you find on other fantasy sites. It's not that there's anything wrong with that, it's just it is freely available elsewhere and I don't think you get much out of reading it all again here. With that in mind, I'm moving to a more stats based approach, though with the intention of providing a pool of data, rather than specific rankings (which will depend on how risky you want to be, last minute injury news etc which I struggle to keep up with 100%).

Update: There has been confusion as to what the original table was setting out. I do not really have 'rankings' as such, only a number of different metrics which I use to base my weekly captain decision on. I haven't found one to be the 'magic bullet' and thus I'm shying away from saying Player X is clearly the best pick of the week, unless of course he was the leader in every category.

The below data should all be taken into account and you can give as much weight to any individual metric you see fit. The tableau powered tables should allow you you re-order the data however you see fit. They are summarised as below:
  • P90 Points per 90 minutes at scored this season at home/away based on this week's fixture
  • QG Quality Games - Number of appearances with 6 or more points
  • BG Bad Games - Number of appearances with 3 points or less
  • % Percentage of goals accounted for (goals and assists) when the player has been on the field (save for a few rounding errors where a player is subbed, but you get the rough idea)
  • Rating Percentage of goals accounted for multiplied by forecast team goals to give the forecast number of goals a player will account for in a given week. Possibly the strongest of the metrics, but by no means a perfect solution.
As always, I welcome any suggestions or requests, specifically regarding any data you would find useful when making your weekly captain selection. Over the coming weeks I be working towards trying to build a 'catch all' formula which incorporates all these factors into a single, rankable number, but until then, enjoy the raw data:


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