Is offense the best defense?

In the recent Everton preview, I noted that I would stay away from Leighton Baines given the need for him to produce historic numbers to justify the lofty price tag. This statement was somewhat abstract and so I thought I should expand on a theory which I have long followed in fantasy football: don't pay for offensive defenders.

As with all overarching theories, the wording is too blunt and should really read, don't pay too much extra for last year's offensive defenders; but that isn't as catchy. Before we get too bogged down with words, let's get back on solid ground with some stats.

Goals
The below players have all had at least one season scoring 3 or more goals:

Player	08/09	09/10	10/11
Cahill	3	5	3
Samba	2	4	4
Vidic	4	1	5
Huth	0	3	6
Johnson G	3	3	2
Lescott	4	1	3
Baines	1	1	5
Hangeland	0	1	6
Nelsen	0	4	3
Ridgewell	0	3	4
Taylor S	4	-	3
Vermaelen	-	7	0
Alex	3	1	2
Craddock	0	5	1
Faye	3	2	1
Shawcross	3	2	1
Cole	1	4	0
Gallas	2	3	0
Scharner	1	4	0
Terry	0	2	3
Turner	4	1	0
Coleman	-	-	4
Collins	0	1	3
Ivanovic	0	0	4
Kaboul	0	3	1
Dunne	1	3	0
Boyce	0	3	0
Clark	0	0	3
Collison	3	0	0
Bardsley	0	0	3
Upson	0	3	0
Warnock	3	0	0

Only one player (Gary Cahill) has scored 3 goals or more in all three of the above season with nine players having two such seasons. Of the 31 three-goal seasons shown above, only 7 of them (23%) were preceded by another three-goal season. Vidic, Lescott, Taylor, Turner, Scharner, Cole and Craddock have all scored at least 4 goals one year, followed by one or less goals in the next. This suggests that while past success can indicate future gains, it is by no means a guarantee.

Assists

The below players have all had at least one season with 3 or more assists:

Player	08/09	09/10	10/11
Baines	6	9	11
Ivanovic	1	6	5
Cole	2	4	5
Johnson G	4	5	2
Evra	2	7	2
Sagna	1	5	3
Warnock	3	3	2
O'Shea	3	1	3
Corluka	3	2	2
Steinsson	5	2	0
Nelsen	1	2	3
Figueroa	2	1	3
Berra	0	4	1
Higginbotham	3	2	0
Jose Enrique	2	0	3
Huth	0	1	3
Baird	0	3	1
Heitinga	0	4	0
Shawcross	1	3	0
Coleman	0	0	4
Evatt	0	0	4
Olsson	0	0	3
Zubar	0	3	0
Walker	0	0	3
El-Mohamady	0	0	3

Again, only one player (Leighton Baines) has managed to notch 3 assists in all three seasons and only 7 have managed two such seasons. Of the 26 three-assist seasons shown above, only 7 of them (27%) were preceded by another three-assist season. Again, while past performance has some correlation to future success, it is by no means a guarantee. Big seasons from Johnson, Evra, Berra and Heitinga have all been followed by substantially reduced numbers.

The price of success
What is the price of a goal? Or, more precisely how much extra should we be willing to pay to secure the services of an offensive defender (if we accept the fact that such a player exists)?

Take the following fictitious example of Gary Cahill, the leading goalscorer over the past 3 seasons (P = appearance and defensive points, G = goal points, A = assist points, B = bonus points, T = total points):

Player	P	G	A	B	T	Cost	P$
Knight	100	0	0	0	100	4.5m	0.614
Cahill	100	18	0	5	123	5.5m	0.612

Cahill needs 3 goals and extra bonus points (which aren't necessarily related based on the top scorers in last season's EA Sports Index) just to break even in terms of value, assuming Knight doesn't notch a single offensive point.

This situation gets more pronounced as you move onto more expensive players from better teams. Below is an example scenario for Everton:

Player	P	G	A	B	T	Cost	P$
Distin	100	6	0	10	116	5.5m	0.555
Baines	100	24	30	15	169	8.0m	0.555

Based on their varying price tags, Baines will need to generate over 50 offensive points more than Distin just to break even in terms of P$.

Now, granted, at a certain point you need to focus on points rather than value but I would strongly argue that you should do this with premium forwards and midfielders rather than your mid level defenders given the potential gulf in points among the attacking players. Consider that the same 2.5m could be used to upgrade from Darren Fletcher to Nani or from Zamora to Hernandez and you see how Baines' price tag might be tough to justify.

Hopefully this will go some of the way to showing why I tend to shy away from the pricey defenders but feel free to post any comments/criticism below as the strategy is definitely arguable. Also a quick reminder that the team previews can be found here and be sure to check out @plfantasy for the latest news on Twitter.