Gameweek 14 Rankings

I'm excited for this week. I've spent the past week in Wilmington, DE so to be honest I'd be stimulated by a brightly coloured set of crayons at this point, but nevertheless I think this week is going to great. Arsenal-Tottenham may have been the best derby of the past 5 years, Mark Hughes 'welcomes' his former side to Craven Cottage, Chelsea look to bounce back from the unbelievable defeat last week while two upstart teams face at the Reebok, each looking to show that their top 8 credentials are for real.

In fantasy terms I am more desperate than expectant. My team has suffered badly in the past 3 weeks and my wildcard has proven to be a disaster. My woeful defense failed to notch a single clean sheet last week despite there being nine on offer. Worse still, since selling him, Jerome Boateng has failed to concede a goal and Vidic added another goal. While he hasn't been spectacular, Fabregas is starting to show his worth and was miraculously awarded the 3 bonus points last week. The key point there being not that it showed how well he played (he was a 7/10 at best) but that the pundits still love him and if Arsenal win he will be in the points. The only player we can say that about with as much conviction is Carlos Tevez.

Without further delay, here are the usual clean sheet and captain rankings. I have also devised some new captain stats while away this week to avoid having to simply guess who I like each week (which is against the mantra of this site).

Clean Sheet Rankings (expected goals conceded in parenthesis)

1. Man Utd (0.48)
2. West Brom (0.50)
3. Liverpool (0.51)
4. Sunderland (0.54)
5. Chelsea (0.65)
6. Blackburn (0.71)
7. Arsenal (0.86)
8. Fulham (1.00)
9. Man City (1.03)
10. Blackpool (1.05)
11. Birmingham (1.06)
12. Bolton (1.09)
13. Everton (1.11)
14. Aston Villa (1.54)
15. Newcastle (1.66)
16. Stoke (1.67)
17. Wolves (2.33)
18. West Ham (2.49)
19. Tottenham (3.02)
20. Wigan (3.60)

Goal Rankings by team (expected goals in parenthesis)

1. Man Utd (3.60)
2. Arsenal (3.02)
3. Liverpool (2.49)
4. Blackpool (1.54)
5. West Brom (1.67)
6. Bolton (1.66)
7. Blackburn (1.54)
8. Sunderland (1.11)
9. Newcastle (1.09)
10. Chelsea (1.06)
11. Wolves (1.05)
12. Fulham (1.03)
13. Man City (1.00)
14. Tottenham (0.86)
15. Aston Villa (0.71)
16. Birmingham (0.65)
17. Everton (0.54)
18. West Ham (0.51)
19. Stoke (0.50)
20. Wigan (0.48)

 Captain Stats (predicted points in parenthesis)

1. Nani (9.58)
2. Berbatov (6.88)
3. Torres (5.80)
4. Tevez (4.68)
5. Drogba (4.55)
6. Fabregas (4.50)
7. Van der Vaart (3.55)
8. Malouda (2.75)

These are new rankings that need explanation and several caveats. First, they are new. I have not tested whether the past performance of these rankings translates into solid predictions, all I know is that the are based on fact and give some useful indications as to who to captain. Second, I have not yet found a way to easily build form in the stats so they are still based on the entire season (thus probably overvaluing Berbatov who has been poor over the past few weeks). 

So, how are the calculated. I have taken each players average performance based on the following factors:

• Home/Away splits
• Performance against teams who concede less than 1 GPG, between 1 and 1.5 GPG and more than 1.5 GPG.
• The percentage of team goals, bonus points, and assists that the player accounts for and the expected number of goals this week for the player's team (eg. Tevez accounts for 47% of City's goals and they are predicted to score once so Tevez should score 0.5 goals).

I have then taken a weighted average of the above predictions.

I concede that these are not full proof and I would not predict that the above numbers will stack up against actuals on a weekly basis, I do however think that they will help us distinguish between two players when handing out the armband.
A few notable stats to come out of the research to date:

• Nani is averaging 9.4 PPG at home and 9.75 PPG against teams who concede more than 1.5 GPG. This week he gets Wigan (conceding 2.54 GPG) at home so should be ready for a big game based on past performance.
• Like Nani, Berbatov has been dynamite at home with 5 goals, an assist and 8 bonus points in 5 games. Struggling for form but solid nonetheless.
• Torres is a different player at Anfield, scoring 4 goals in 6 games as opposed to just 1 in 7 away from Anfield. This has led to double the PPG production with 6.0 at home compared to just 3.14 on the road.
• Tevez has been pretty solid both home and away and accounts for a ridiculous 47% of City's goals and 29% of their bonus points. He faces a tough game at Fulham but he's averaging 4.5 PPG against teams who concede less than a goal a game suggesting he can raise his game when required.
• Drogba has cooled off after a great start but Chelsea will be looking for revenge after last's embarrassment. Drogba is almost as good away (5.6 PPG) as at home (6.86) though only averages 3.5 PPG against the better sides. A solid but unspectacular option this week.
• Somewhat perversly Fabregas has been better away from home (5.6 PPG) than at the Emirates (4.0 PPG) this year though he is hitting teams who concede more than 1.5 GPG for 5.00 PPG so far this year. Like Drogba above he remains a solid option but history does not suggest a big game.
• Van der Vaart is averaging 9.4 PPG at home but just 2.6 PPG away from home. He is on the road this week at the Emirates hence his low ranking here.
• Malouda is averaging just 2.33 PPG against teams who concede less than 1 GPG and just 3.17 PPG on the road. He faces a tricky trip to Birmingham this week (0.72 GPG) and is therefore a weak captain pick.

I hope these new stats give a good insight into how to pick your captain this week, any comments/suggestions would be appreciated. Please post below or @plfantasy.