Monday, December 14, 2009

Gameweek 17 Preview

Gameweek 17 Fixtures
Sunderland v Aston Villa

Birmingham v Blackburn

Bolton v West Ham

Man Utd v Wolves

Burnley v Arsenal

Chelsea v Portsmouth

Liverpool v Wigan

Tottenham v Man City


The most important issue this week are the four teams on a buy and what you should do with their players. To briefly sum up my thoughts:
  • Stoke - Sorensen has been in incredible form (35 points in 4 games) of late thanks to 3 penalty saves in that period. The defense hasn't actually been that good with just 3 clean sheets in the last 11 games though the Stoke defense as a whole remains okay value for the time being. The next two games after the bye are tough and so you might consider selling but unless you need to play them this week or next, I would simply bench my Stoke defenders and hold them for the double gameweek 20. I don't like the attack as much and I think Etherington is the only legitimate fantasy option for now. Sanli Tuncay intrigues me for the future but until he proves his ability to play every week I'd stay away. Etherington remains a hold despite the off week.
  • Fulham - Fulham's offensive fixtures are awful with no less than 6 red light games between now and week 24. Considering their off week, I consider all Fulham forwards and midfielders sell options as better value can be found elsewhere: Duff (Etherington, N'Zogbia), Dempsey (Dunn, Reid), Zamora (Fletcher, Doyle). The defensive fixtures are slightly better but the double gameweek is marred by having to go to Chelsea and I think better value can be found in the short to mid term future. They become decent value again from week 21 onwards but until then I would move on.
  • Everton - Everton's defense is overpriced right now anyway and has been a sell option for weeks. The off week only serves to make this matter more urgent and you should dump Baines and co immediately. If you can afford to rotate him, I think Saha is a hold due to Everton's decent fixtures from weeks 18-25. If you need to replace him I'd go for Rodallega, Franco or Benitez. None of Everton's other players are widely held - and with good reason.
  • Hull - Awful defensive fixtures and tough attacking fixtures make pretty much all Hull players sells right now though I think Hunt is the only one you should be looking at anyway. At 5.2m he is good value regardless of fixture, but I might take a shot with N'Zogbia, Elliot or Boateng for the next few weeks.
Liverpool, United and Birmingham have very attractive fixtures this week from an attacking perspective and should provide some decent options for those looking for a player to bring in for the week (such as Fletcher, Benitez, and Mascherano). Defensively, Chelsea and Birmingham once again have great matchups and owners will do well to ride these hot teams despite Chelsea's setback at the weekend.

Clean Sheet Rankings
  1. Chelsea (0.16) - BUY
  2. Birmingham (0.20) - HOLD
  3. Man Utd (0.62) - BUY
  4. Liverpool (0.98) - HOLD
  5. Sunderland (0.98) - HOLD
  6. Tottenham (1.01) - BUY
  7. Blackburn (1.23) - HOLD
  8. Burnley (1.23) - SELL
  9. West Ham (1.29) - SELL
  10. Aston Villa (1.33) - HOLD/SELL
  11. Arsenal (1.40) - HOLD
  12. Bolton (1.58) - HOLD
  13. Man City (2.25) - HOLD
  14. Wolves (2.50) - SELL
  15. Portsmouth (2.69) - SELL
  16. Wigan (5.15) - SELL
You have to like the top two again this week and despite Chelsea's lapse against Everton, I like them again this week to get the clean sheet. Portsmouth have scored just 4 goals away from home this season and I think Cole, Terry and even Ivanovic deserve some captaincy consideration this week. Birmingham's fixture on paper is almost as good and Sorensen owners will be pleased if they have Hart to fill in this week for their absent keeper. United's excellent defensive fixtures start this week and I like Wes Brown as a great short term pickup for the next few weeks.

Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Fernando Torres
  3. Wayne Rooney
  4. Cesc Fabregas
  5. Frank Lampard
  6. Andrei Arshavin
  7. Steven Gerrard
  8. Ashley Cole
  9. Antonio Valencia
  10. Jermaine Defoe
I love the top three this week as each gets a good looking fixture and should have the chance to find the net. Needless to say from the above I like the big four teams this week and I would ride them for the next few weeks as the majority of their fixtures are good. With Lampard and Gerrard continuing to underwhelm I think you should try and own two of those top 3 strikers, pairing them with perhaps Bent or a cheaper option like Rodallega if need be. All three have good fixtures and should provide the best source of points for the next 10 weeks or so.

Suspensions
John Heitinga
Marouane Fellaini
Craig Bellamy
Younes Kaboul
Mark Noble

This is a good week to gain a few points on your unprepared opponents who may have players on bye weeks or fail to update their teams in time for the deadline. It is therefore essential to try and field a full team of XI players and try and capitalise on the good matchups the big teams have. Why not post your lineup or transfer questions below or tweet them @plfantasy.

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