Ronaldo Ramblings

After two more miserable performances from Ronaldo over the Christmas period, many owners are getting close to dumping Ronaldo and the net transfers for the week are in a small outflow position. I myself was considering dumping him for Gerrard until Gerrard's off the field antics cast doubt over his future for the coming weeks. Three points need raising though before any rash decisions are made:

1. Ronaldo still leads all fantasy players with 6.67 points per game (PPG) which equates to a Points Per Million Spent (PPMS) of 0.457, which is ahead of Deco (o.444) and Fabregas (0.424) among others. If you have captained Ronaldo every week (or even just a few of his 15 point+ performances) then his PPMS will be up with anyone else in the league. It is also important to remember that value for money (ie PPMS) will only carry your team a certain distance and it is actual points (PPG) that really matters.

2. United have two double gameweeks in the next 5 and then have a 3 game run of green rated attacking games (taking us through to gameweek 28). Over this period United have 6 home games as well as road visits to Bolton, WBA, West Ham and Newcastle, all of which are far from top level fixtures. Indeed, only two fixtures in this period are classed as red, and even then both of them are at home (Chelsea and Fulham).

3. Is it really wise to sell Ronaldo now having sat through this barren run and off week? Ashley Young had a similar run of 5 games (gameweek 11 - 15) in which he only notched a single assist, Lampard went 6 games with a solo assist (gameweek 13-18) and Gerrard had just a single assist between weeks 3 and 9. What this shows is that even the best players have poor runs and also that each of the aforementioned three players have rewarded loyal owners with explosions of points over the next 3 or 4 weeks.

My strategy and advice to others is hold Ronaldo for at least the next 5 gameweeks as not having him over 2 double gameweeks is asking for trouble, whether you are leading or chasing the pack. Unless he has drawn a total blank over this period, has been sold or has gotten himself sent off again I would then advise holding him for a further 3 games based on the fixtures. United's final 10 games are not the easiest, featuring just 2 green rated games and so it may be worth moving your team around at that stage for a final push.

A final note of warning though is who you will replace Ronaldo with. I recommend holding at least 2 of Ronaldo, Lampard, Gerrard and Young which means your options are limited in replacing any of them. I, for example, have Ronaldo, Lampard and Young so I can only get Gerrard without having 6 or 7 million sat on my bench. Therefore think hard about a long term strategy in replacing Ronaldo if you decide that this is the best course of action.

Christmas Message for All

I've managed to steal some time away from the food, presents and terrible TV to have a few wandering thoughts on this week's football.
The early game on boxing day sees Stoke take on United at the Britannia as United will look to get back on track in the league after their travels to Asia for the World Club Championships. I've brought Ronaldo back for this one after Gerrard did little in his place last week. Look for a full strength United to excel here and use this as a great week to get your first United player before the double gameweeks in 21 and 25. O'Shea is the best value at the moment in Evra's absence though Evra himself looks to be good value when the suspension is over. Fletcher and Carrick remain decent mid-cheap Midfielders and the likes of Berbatov and Rooney become more attractive premium strikers in the double gameweeks.
The second lob-sided game of the day is at the Bridge where Chelsea take on bottom placed West Brom. Chelsea are missing a number of defensive players in this one though should still manage to hold off anything West Brom can throw at them. Attacking wise, the usual suspects remain good options with Anelka and Lampard leading the line once more.
At Fratton Park, Portsmouth will entertain the Hammers in a battle of two underachieving teams. This one has 1-1 written all over it and is not a great game to pick fantasy players from. Defoe and Crouch remain okay options mind as they look most likley to benefit from any goals Pompey do manage.
Tottenham-Fulham sees a Fulham side who have given up 6 goals on the road play a Spurs side that have scored just 7 at home. The book would say this will be 0-0 or decided by a single goal so feel free to plug in the likes of Schwarzer, Paintsil or Corluka. I don't fancy any of the attacking options available in this one.
In form Bolton travel to Anfield to meet a Liverpool close to welcoming back Torres and Skrtel, though both will likely start on the bench at best for now. Bolton's improving attack will struggle to pierce Liverpool's stingy defense who have conceded just 6 in 9 home games this term. I am forced to play Agger this week though most publications suggest that Hyypia will play this one. Ideally stay away from them both and get Arbeloa then trade him in for Skrtel when fit.
A potential goal-fest at Eastlands sees City entertain Hull so it may best to leave your defenders at home for this one. Robinho, if fit, will be a good (if somewhat obvious here) though better value may be found in Shaun Wright Phillips who could be facing an out of position defenders in Ricketts and Dawson's absence. Hull's budget options are all decent plays again this week, led by Geovanni and King.
Middlesbrough-Everton is another tough game to call that could easily be 0-0 or 2-2. Despite Everton's lack of firepower they are always a threat to score from set plays and I wouldn't therefore bet the house on a Boro clean sheet. Likewise, Boro are a sneaky team that can manufacture goals and could spoil a clean sheet from the Blues. I do think Jagielka might be worth a punt mind, based on his excellent 15 bonus points so far this term.
Sunderland-Blackburn sees Big Sam take over his first road game, an area where his Bolton team's were very organised, compact and stingy. Allardyce may well deploy a 4-5-1 which could make McCarthy, Roberts and Santa Cruz risky starts. Big Sam is no miracle worker and Rovers have shipped 19 goals away from Ewood this season so Cisse and Jones are both good buys this week. The in-form and Malbranque and Richardson also look like decent plays again this week.
Despite Newcastle's improved defense I like Zaki to score this week to get his season back on track after his injuries. Wigan's success is often linked to the form of Valencia, which bodes well for Steve Bruce's side. I like the chance of Valencia continuing this good form with an assist or goal this week. Newcastle defenders are still very cheap (particularly Bassong) and despite my inkling that Wigan will win, the Magpies remain a decent play this week.
The big clash of the weekend is Villa-Arsenal which should have goals and isn't a great source of fantasy value for defenders. I can see at least 3 goals in this one with Young, Agbonlahor and Barry all looking set to prosper. For Arsenal, Denilson could be a cheap option as he gets forward in place of Fabregas as well as Van Persie who has been in great form against the big sides this year.

Apologies for the swiftness of the post today, I am hoping to post a bit of a diary tomorrow if I can negotiate the time away from the festivities.

Gameweek 18 Injury Update

Not too many new injuries this week, which is lucky considering the need for many us to move United and Wigan players around. Some long term casualties are staring to become fit (Martin Skrtel, Fernando Torres and Eduardo) and these situations should monitored in terms of both buying bargains and your current players losing value as they find their way to the bench.
Without any further delay lets go around the week's games for a quick injury update:

United and Wigan are of course not playing which may lead to some of us having to pay for transfers this week (I just coughed up 4 points myself).
Some potential benefactors of the above injuries are Alex/Ivanovic who will continue to deputise for Carvalho. Agger/Hyypia who will stand in for Skrtel for at least one more week. Steven Gerrard should continue his advanced role against Arsenal likely playing behind Dirk Kuyt in Torres' absence. Bernard Mendy could also be a sneaky pickup as both Dawson and McShane will miss out for Hull which should see the former PSG winger start once again this week.

Player Feature: Martin Skrtel

The Slovakian international is back in training and could be the must have buy this Christmas. We all got excited about Alex and Agger as cheap members of a legaue leading back four but each of them were only ever going to be stop gaps. Skrtel however is a bona fide starter and at 5.6m is incredible value.
With Skrtel in the side, Liverpool conceded 4 goals in 6 games, keeping 3 clean sheets in the process. 3 of these goals came against United and City, two of the better attacks in the league.

Skrtel is tipped to return to the first team on Boxing day at home to Bolton in time to face Stoke, Everton and Wigan as well the aforementioned Wanderers. This run should be good for 3 clean sheets and points a plenty for the big centre back. When he was fit he was averaging 3.83 points per game for a very healthy 0.685 points per million spent. Anyone still clinging to Agger, Alex or Kompany should look to Strkel to solidify their back line in time for the Christmas period, much in the same way Benitez is.

Player Feature: Gabriel Agbonlahor

Traditionally these features should come BEFORE a big scoring week and I can hear the cries of horse, bolted, close, gate already. However, I urge you to consider that last week was not a blip for the speedy Englishman but a sign of things to come over the next 8 weeks.
Agbonlahor has had three monster weeks (1, 9 and 17), scoring 15 or more points in each, but has failed to crack 6 every other week. This can be frustrating for managers who find it hard to captain him, especially considering that at Wigan and home to City are only considered to be medium games in which to play your attackers.
A look ahead though sees 4 green and 4 amber games on the horizon for Villa including @WH, @Hul and WBA in the next four. Villa are back on form (despite their second stringers losing to Hamburg tonight) and I look to them to win 5 or 6 of the next 8, scoring a bagful in the process.

The only downside to Agbonlahor is that he is widely held (23%) though I wouldn't let this stop you from getting him. I think he is a made replacement for Defoe (after the next two games) and could even be a nice option for Anelka if Drogba starts stealing minutes from the Frenchman.

Looking longer term, my strategy is to bring Gabby in soon for Defoe and then switch him for Carew when he returns from injury, freeing up at least 1.1m (or probably more assuming Gabby rises or Carew continues to fall).

Does anyone out there currently own the Villa hit man, or are you considering getting him? Do you think the move is too late after last week's 15 point haul? Let me know what you think

Gerrard plus one

No not an invitation to a christmas party but rather a fantasy conundrum. As I have three Wigan players, a lame duck (Agger) and Ronaldo I need to make two transfers to ensure I can even field a team this week. I am therefore transferring Ronaldo out on the assumption that if I act quickly I can initially lose 0.3m which will be cut to 0.2 as I expect his price to fall by next week and Gerrard's to rise due to all the Ronaldo sellers. I have all but settled on Gerrard as the replacement which, on the assumption that prices don't move, leaves me 0.2 to spend upgrading somewhere else whilst still leaving me with 3.1 to get Ronaldo back next week for the Stoke game.

The question therefore is how to spend that 0.2m. I need to use it on one of my players who are off this week so the choice is Figueroa or Agger (I'm still holding Zaki and Valencia).

Agger (5.9)
This gives me 6.1 which doesn't buy a great deal these days as you cannot touch the big boys apart from Alex or O'Shea, one of whom is not guaranteed a game and one of whom is in Japan. Jagielka was the first name that sprung to mind but Everton play Chelsea who are undefeated on the road and have scored 21 goals in 8 games. My next thought was City who travel to West Brom who are the worst team in the league by some way at this point (yes, even Blackburn). Kompany in his advanced role is my first thought and he definately makes the short list, though City have given up 15 goals on the road and haven't kept an away clean sheet since week 3. I like Villa at the moment and they get a trip to Upton Park to play a West Ham so Cuellar is also an option

Figueroa (4.2)
This gives me 4.4 and also allows me to divest myself of some of my over reliance on a pretty average and unpredictable Wigan side. Having just mentioned Villa above, Luke Young is the obvious choice, although he is not guaranteed a game with Shorey waiting in the wings. I am also sky high on Bassong and at 4m he would allow me use the money saved elsewhere in the future. Newcastle entertain Spurs though which which isn't the easiest game. Bolton are another option and I particularly like O'Brien at 4.2m, especially as they entertain a Pompey side in poor form.

At the moment I am favouring Young or possibly Bassong to replace Figueroa. I prefer Young but if I get Bassong then I would have 6.3 to replace Agger which would allow me to get Clichy in time for Arsenal's good defensive fixture run or even Evra if his value falls 0.1 more due to his suspension.

So, what are your thoughts? Are you guys getting rid of Ronaldo or keeping with the once undroppable fantasy God?

That's more like it

Finally a staurday afternoon with a decent tally and wouldn't you know it, I had to miss it for the dreaded christmas shopping! Therefore I was not on hand to see Valencia and Young terrorise opposition defenses to give the Juice a decent 52 point haul on Saturday. In absence of my weekly diary and general ramblings, I'll review each game below noting any key trends and scorers and suggesting where future sleepers may lie:

Middlesbrough 1 - 1 Arsenal

Middelesbrough: Turnbull, Huth, Pogatetz, Riggott, McMahon, Arca, Downing, Johnson, Digard, Alliadiere, Tuncay
Arsenal: Almunia, Clichy, Djorou, Gallas, Sagna, Denilson, Fabregas, Diaby, Song, Adebayour, Van Persie.

I think Adebayour has staked a claim for the best premium striker around with his 11th goal in 20 games (in all competitions) and the return of Drogba to potentially limit Anelka's minutes (more on that later). With just one clean sheet since week 9, players are abandoning the Arsenal defense and the likes of Clichy (6.3), Sagna (6.3) and especially Djorou (4.4) are worth monitoring as weekly replacements for the big boys when the matchup suits. Arsenal's defensive woes have affectively turned the big 4 into a big 3 when it comes to defensive stats.

Aston Villa 4 -2 Bolton
Aston Villa: Friedel, Cuellar, Davies, Laursen, L.Young, A.Young, Barry, Petrov, Sidwell, Milner, Agbonlahor
Bolton: Jaaskelainen, Samuel, Cahill, O'Brien, Cahill, Muamba, Nolan, McCann, Taylor, Davies, Elmander
Villa haven't looked like the team to threaten the big four in a few games at home this season, but were sensational against Bolton. Young almost justified O'Neill's suggestion that he was as good as the likes of Messi and Ronaldo, and his partnership with Agbonlahor looks unstoppable at times. I tipped Agbonlahor for success this week but wouldn't swallow the 4 point hit and stuck with Defoe (ouch). Villa have tremendous fixtures over the christmas break, including three 'green light' games in the next five. I would reccommend holding at least one of Young, Agbonlahor and Barry though the defense looks less tempting with two red light games in the next four.
As for Bolton, I think that the defense remains a good 'fixture led' play and the whole back four remain worthy subs. Elmander scored again and as mentioned in my 'mid price' strategy last week, he is a potential steal after Bolton have played their tricky run up to week 22.

Liverpool 2 -2 Hull
Liverpool: Reina, Arbeloa, Carragher, Hyypia, Dossena, Alonso, Benayoun, Gerrard, Mascherano, Riera, Kuyt
Hull: Myhill, Ricketts, Turner, Zayatte, Mendy, Ashbee, Marney, Barmby, Boateng, Geovanni, King
Not a single recognised fantasy striker in this one for Liverpool, who relied on their premium midfielder Gerrard for goals. Gerrard's 14 point haul will almost certainly tempt some Ronaldo and Lampard owners to ditch their star men who have flattered to deceive of late. Liverpool's next 6 games are all rated medium in terms of attacking options and the Liverpool ace might be a good option for those wishing to ship Ronaldo for his off'week.
The other big news was that Agger again found himself on the bench whoch pretty much signals the end of his worth as a fantasy factor. With Skrtel due back within a month, Agger's lack of first team action suggests his days at Anfield are numbered. If you're pushed for cash Hyypia might be worth a look, though it wouldn't suprise me if Agger plays again at some point.

Man City 0-1 Everton
Man City: Hart, Ball, Dunne, Richards, Zabaleta, Kompany, Wright Phillips, Elano, Ireland, Benjani, Robinho
Everton: Howard, Jagielka, Lescott, Neville, Yobo, Arteta, Osman, Cahill, Pienaar, Castillo, Fellaini
Like their Merseyside rivals, Everton didn't field a single fantasy forward in the game yet still notched a valuable win at Eastlands. The Everton defense scored their 2nd clean sheet in 3 and Jagielka (who also scored his 12th bonus point) is a viable option if you can't afford the big four defenders. Everton do face a pretty tough defensive fixture list over the christmas period so caution should be exercised if considering bringing these guys in.
City on the other hand have started to look fairly ordinary of late, and the loss of form at home is particularly worrying for the likes of fantasy favourites Shaun Wright Phillips, Stephen Ireland and Robinho. Robinho has just 25 points in the last 8 games, and Wright Phillips has just 20 points over the same period. Ireland has been a top performer this season but outside of two stellar performances against Hull and Arsenal, the Irishman has just 12 points in the last 7 games. City's attacking fixture list is fairly attractive in the coming weeks so if you've stuck by these players for the past month it might be worth holding them for a bit longer (particularly is you're sitting on a loss).

Stoke 0-0 Fulham
Stoke: Sorensen, Faye, Wilkinson, Higginbotham, Sonko, Delap, Pugh, Whelan, Faye, Cresswell, Fuller
Fulham: Schwarzer, Hangeland, Hughes, Konchesky, Paintsil, Bullard, Davies. Dempsey, Gera, Murphy, Johnson
This game had 0-0 written all over it and it didn't dissapoint. I finally brought Paintsil in this week and he rewarded me with a clean sheet. Fulham have two more green light games coming up and the defense is worth holding. The 6 games after the Chelsea game (week 20) are also pretty good and Fulham may be the best value defense around right now.
Stoke continue to other little fantasy value as Delap's assists have dried up of late. Fuller did score another bonus point making it 4 in 3 and 9 on the season, making him possibly the best sub-6m around.

Sunderland 4-0 West Brom
Sunderland: Fulop, Bardsley, Collins, Nosworthy, Ferdinand, Reid, Richardson, Malbranque, Tainio, Cisse, Jones
West Brom: Carson, Meite, Robinson, Zuiverloon, Olsson, Brunt, Greening, Koren, Valero, Bednar, Moore
This game all but confirmed to me that my proposed mid-price striker strategy will work. I liked both Cisse and Jones for the coming weeks, who both scored in this one (with Jones getting two). Sunderland's next three are all green light attacking games and both remain buy prospects at the moment. Andy Reid also exploded for 16 in this one though I wouldn't go expect similar output on a weekly basis.
West Brom have no fantasy impact now Miller is gone for the season, other than to pick up whoever is playing them each week.

Wigan 3-0 Blackburn
Wigan: Kirkland, Bramble, Figueroa, Melchiot, Scharner, Taylor, Cattermole, Brown, Valencia, Heskey, Zaki
Blackburn: Robinson, Emerton, Ooijer, Nelsen, Samba, Warnock, Dunn, Tugay, Andrews, Derbyshire, Santa Cruz
Wigan's promising team finally delivered with Valencia leading the charge with 17 points. The game also saw Zaki return to action after his absence, though he failed to have a fantasy impact. Wigan's defense again proved good value with Taylor being particularly good value at 4.2 as he lined up in midfield. Wigan have the off week for week 18 though follow that up with 4 decent games so they're probably worth holding on to unless you want to use two transfers to sell and buy them back.
Balckburn, like West Brom above, have no fantasy value at this point.

Tottenham 0-0 Man Utd
Tottenham: Gomes, Corluka, Assou-Ekotto, Dawson, Bentley, Huddlestone, Jenas, Lennon, Modric, Zaokora, Pavlyuchenko
Man Utd: Van der Sar, O'Shea, Vidic, Ferdinand, Rafael, Carrick, Fletcher, Park, Ronaldo, Tevez, Berbatov
Spurs defense has seen a major turnaround in the past few weeks and may be worth a look based on their good looking defensive fixture list. Lennon again looked dangerous and is the only attacking option worth looking at right now for Spurs.
United meanwhile have been stuttering a bit of late and Ronaldo looked frustrated once more on his way to an outrageous three bonus points that he didn't deserve. Hopefully the week off at the World Champs will do them good and Ronaldo and co will come back firing on all cylinders. Right now, Ronaldo is clearly not worth 14.7 and if you bought him at this price I would consider selling him for the next couple of weeks.

Portsmouth 0-3 Newcastle
Portsmouth: James, Campbell, Distin, Pamarot, Belhadj, Davies, Hughes, Kranjcar, Mvuemba, Crouch, Defoe
Newcastle: Given. Beye, Enrique, N'Zogbia, Coloccini, Bassong, Guthrie, Butt, Guttierez, Martins, Owens
Inredible result for the Magpies and another sign that Portsmouth are a side in decline under Adams. I for one am done with them and I plan to ship Defoe out having already dumped Traore this week (and finally got a transfer to pay off having brought Paintsil in). Their fixtures aren't terrible but then again Newcastle at home is a borderline green light game and they failed to score and shipped three.
Newcastle on the other hand are a team on the rise and both the defense and key contributors like Owen, Guttierez and Guthrie are potential buys right now. At 8.4 Owen is still overrpriced for me but he is held by just 3% and could be a differentiator in the coming weeks. With back-to-back assists and a man of the match performance against Pompey Guttierez is finally starting to get the fantasy points to match his impressive displays and at 5.9m he might be a decent buy. At 4.8 I love Guthrie and I am looking to move him in for Marney as soon as possible. He has two bonus earning games in the last 3 and has started all of the last 5 games. Newcastle's fixtures are a bit up and down but they have some pretty nice fixtures that would make it worth adding one of the Magpie starters to your chrustmas list.

Chelsea 1-1 West Ham
Chelsea: Cech, Alex, Cole, Bosingwa, Terry, Ballack, Cole, Lampard, Mikel, Deco, Anelka
West Ham: Green, Neill, Upson, Davenport, Ilunga, Noble, Parker, Behrami, Collison, Bellamy, Cole
I had this one as a home clean sheet banker but West Ham and in particular Carlton Cole threatened the Chelsea goal all day. Cole looked strong and powerful and but a doubt in mind as to whether I should keep him or not, especially with replacement in waiting Ishmael Miller done for the year.
Chelsea have struggled at home though looked much better with Drogba, which should trouble Anelka owners a tad. However, the Frenchman scored again and is surely undroppable at this juncture. Lampard had a so-so game and notched an assist to give he a credible 12 points for me as captain.