REAL MADRID SIGNS CHELSEA DEFENDER RICARDO CARVALHO

The news has spread like wildfire this evening here in Spain, REAL MADRID has come to an agreement with CHELSEA FC to transfer 32 year old defender & Portuguese International RICARDO CARVALHO for 8M€. The operation is believed to be on the verge of officiality as all parties work to shut all the fine details in the coming hours. The offer to the player is a two year contract with another year as

SPAIN DEBUTS TOMORROW WITH "WORLD CHAMPIONS STAR" AGAINST MEXICO IN INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY GAME

The SPANISH NATIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM will play its first International Football match tomorrow with the "Star" on their shirt as World Champion. Spain plays Mexico away tomorrow at the famous "Azteca Stadium". However, debuting tomorrow with the long wished & hard fought "World Champions Star" may also turn out to be the Spanish Teams first defeat since winning the World Cup Final against Holland a

Strength of Schedule

Without wishing to tread on the toes on the first weekly preview post for the season, I thought it might be useful to quickly run through the strength of schedules for the new season, as these should factor into - but not wholly drive - your initial squad.

Readers from last season will know how much I love looking at a team's fixtures, and I will often state how I prefer a good fantasy player (say, Clint Dempsey) with a great fixture over a great fantasy player (say, James Milner) with a so-so fixture. This holds true to an extent though two important caveats should be noted here:

1. Don't get too cute - I would never drop Lampard on a weekly basis for someone like Steve Pienaar as there are sound reasons why Lampard costs twice as much: he plays for a top team, takes penalties and dominates the bonus category. You may look at Lampard's fixtures and decide that over a 6 game period his production might be limited and therefore look to sell him, but dropping a star is never recommended unless there are questions over whether he might play.
2. When it comes to picking your opening day squad, ideally you are picking the team who you think will be the best over the course of a season. This means that while the strength of the opening fixtures do matter, they should not drive your squad selection: if you like Robin van Persie to win the golden boot then buy him now and enjoy the upcoming price rise, even if you don't like his opening fixture at Liverpool.

The possible exception to this rule would be if you choose to pursue a 'three thirds' strategy, given the availability of a second wildcard for this season. This would entail focusing purely on the opening 12-13 weeks of the season and trying to maximize points in that period only. While I like this idea, the risk is that it is always hard to predict which players will play well initially and this strategy gives way to picking too many unknown entities for my taste.


Best Schedules
With the caveats in place, let's look at the best fixture lists over the opening six weeks (a somewhat reliable time-frame) and see if anything stands out that might act a tie break if you are torn between two similar players.

1. Aston Villa (opponent's score an average of 0.98 goals per game)
2. Chelsea (1.19)
3. Birmingham (1.21)
4. Man Utd (1.25)
5. Newcastle (1.31)
6. Tottenham (1.35)
7. Wolves (1.36)
8. Arsenal (1.36)
9. Everton (1.38)
10. Man City (1.38)
11. Blackburn (1.38)
12. Fulham (1.38)
13. Wigan (1.47)
14. Bolton (1.51)
15. Sunderland (1.57)
16. Stoke (1.57)
17. Liverpool (1.60)
18. West Ham (1.61)
19. Blackpool (1.66)
20. West Brom (1.94)

Before we look at the numbers, a quick word of caution over the data used. Firstly, this is based on last year's full season in the EPL, which is dangerous given that their have been managerial changes, new signings, squad rotation etc but it is a useful starting point so I've stuck with it. Second, for the promoted teams I have used their goals conceded last year in the Championship and adjusted them based on a historic rate at which teams perform in the big league compared with the minors (on average teams concede 1.56x more and score 0.68x as many goals).


So what stands out? First, Villa have a very favourable set of fixtures; over a 5th of a goal better than anyone else. Combine this with one of the best defensive teams around from last year who haven't really lost anyone in the off season and it looks like a recipe for success. I highly recommend getting at least one Villa defender in your team, and if you were bullish on them anyway, you might want to roll the dice with a second (this is risky though).

Second, Birmingham once again look like good value and I think they are undervalued based on last year's performances. True Joe Hart is gone but Ben Foster is a decent replacement and the rest of the defense is intact. I think they once again make excellent rotation options and these fixtures suggest that they are good value early on.

A potential sleeper team is Newcastle, whose defenders can be had for 4m. I'm not saying these guys will be clean sheet kings but I think they have a useful unit (who conceded 35 in 46 last season) and will be particularly strong at St James Park. I would be more than happy stashing a Newcastle defender on the bench and hoping to gain a bit of cash should they play well in the first few weeks.

Finally, of the most fancied sides, Liverpool have the toughest run and you might want to bear this in mind before investing heavily in Glen Johnson or Pepe Reina. I do like the Liverpool defense this year but I for one will be targeting them in week 6 onwards after two trips to Manchester and a home game with Arsenal are behind them.

Not long until the season now so please keep checking back for regular updates to try and help you pick your final squads.

REAL MADRID LOOKS AT KUKAKU OR IS FERNANDO LLORENTE THE REAL OBJECTIVE?

A smokescreen? Spanish Sports daily “Marca” at times sells smoke & have published today that REAL MADRID has added on their list of possible signings ANDERLECHT young forward ROMEU LUKAKU. Real Madrid Coach José Mourinho “surprised” some with declarations after the LA Galaxy friendly game that the team needs a third striker to compete with Higuain & Benzema, plus guarantee the maximum levels to

MESUT OZIL CLOSER TO FC BARCELONA ? HIS DECISION? REAL MADRID?

There seems to be a three way Club “battle” to make with the services of WERDER BREMEN & German 21 year old International MESUT OZIL. If last week REAL MADRID was said to be the destination, either for this season or next, it seems that MANCHESTER UNITED has entered the picture along with FC BARCELONA, the latter is now said to have the “leading edge” according to local Spanish media sources &

REAL MADRID | A RECORD 1.022M€ SPENT ON NEW SIGNINGS SINCE THE YEAR 2000

Hi guys back from some days of holidays & glad to be with you again with Spanish Football news & curiosities.An interesting story featured today in Spanish Sports daily “Marca” on REAL MADRID & their spending on new players since 2000. Real Madrid is the Club that most money has “invested” (spent) on new signings since the year 2000 in the whole World of Football. The below diagram illustrates

Thinking Outside the Box

“It never occurred to them that, if everyone had to think outside the box, maybe it was the box that needed fixing” [Gladwell, What the Dog Saw]

When picking a fantasy team, like when trying to win anything, most participants will search for an ‘edge’ or secret formula to give them a jump-start over their opponents. This may take the form of relying on industry knowledge (“a friend of mine is a scout at Spurs and he assures me Assou Ekotto will retain his starting LB position from last season”), trend analysis (“Rooney scores 69% of his goals against bottom half teams”) or historical performance (“high price midfielders always out deliver their expensive forward counterparts”).  This quest for more information works on the assumption that the common ‘knowledge’ is at best limited and at worst incorrect.

How true is this though? In NFL fantasy we are told to draft running backs in the first round, in baseball anyone who can deliver speed and power is a sure fire early pick and the EPL game is no different in giving us several age old adages upon which we base our team. One of them that interested me is how reliable a measure of success is the number of playing minutes a player generates in the season. Many – including this blog – will often praise the virtues of the reliable player will who play 90 minutes each week and while not win you the league, will never lose one either.  Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Forwards

The correlation between forward minutes and points is strong (0.772) which is in line with common sense – if you don’t play you will struggle to achieve the main aim of a forward: score goals. What is also worth noting is the strong correlation (0.726) between points scored and player value. 

 This suggests that bargains are hard to come by when it comes to strikers and only a couple of players can be described as anomalous outliers last year (Bent, Tevez and Rodallega all outperformed their value). When it comes to minutes played, the four best ‘overachievers’ are the big four of Drogba, Rooney, Tevez and Torres (to be expected given their individual and team talent).

You can summarize this position as ‘you get what you pay for’. It is going against recent history to expect to find a forward equivalent of a 2008/09 Stephen Ireland or a 2009/10 James Milner. Players like Amr Zaki 2008/09 have done it to a degree but failed to keep it up for a whole season, instead leaving you to try and capture lightning in a bottle.

In summary, the data from last year underlines the need to pay for big name strikers. A look over the message boards at Fantasy Football Scout suggests that many consider this to be an anomaly and are returning to the big midfield names, but until I see otherwise, I will be paying a premium for strikers who can be relied upon not just for minutes but also for goals.

Midfield

The correlation between midfield points and minutes is much weaker than with forwards, and indeed at 0.535 we can conclude that there is only a weak linkage. 

Admittedly the sample size is quite a lot larger than forwards but still the number of both over and underachievers is noticeable. This is somewhat of an eye opener to me as I have often stuck with midfielders through baron patches on the basis that they are guaranteed to play – which I thought was a useful measure of overall success.  In fact, you are better chasing points a bit and trying to find the form player rather than stubbornly sticking with the player who just isn’t delivering the goods.

The linkage between points and value is once again relatively strong at 0.701 showing once again that you get what you pay for.  Plenty of outliers exist though and this line of best fit is somewhat skewed up by the outstanding returns delivered by Lampard and Fabregas.

 The data shows that while, of course, the top players will always usually deliver good returns, there is value to be had elsewhere. Also, relying merely on a player getting consistent minutes is not enough to guarantee good returns in the future.

Defenders

The key lesson here is the lack of correlation between value and points – standing at just 0.559. 

Thinking about this for a second, this suggests that all those United, Chelsea and Liverpool players are overvalued and you should continue to pursue players from team such as Fulham and Villa last season. This makes sense due to there being 2 ways to ‘beat the market’ when it comes to defenders. Firstly, a team’s players are undervalued, like with Birmingham last season, whose players could mostly be picked up for 4.5m or less. The second is a player on a premium team who is valued significantly below his teammates but still gets the same access to clean sheets. These are hard to find right away but much success has been enjoyed in previous seasons with players like Johny Evans, Armand Traore, Martin Skrtel and Roy Caroll who have all gained significant runs in top teams despite costing several million less than their teammates.

Now, be careful here, as we are not saying the top defenders to not deliver at all. Indeed, of the top 10 leaders in points only Jody Craddock who scored an unlikely 5 goals was available at a low price. What we are saying though is that, comparatively speaking, there is better value to be found lower down the price lists than with forwards and midfielders.

Goalkeepers

Not much to say about value against points as there is not a strong correlation (0.619) and the best points delivered by 4m and 4.5m players comes close to that delivered by the most expensive players. 

I emphasized last season that you should not pay for a goalkeeper – instead relying on a rotation system – but even if you simply played someone like Sorensen or Hart every week you were still rewarded with much better value and only 20 points less over the whole season.

As you would expect the correlation between minutes and points is extremely strong but there isn’t much fantasy advice to gain here other than make sure your ‘keepers are playing!

I am sticking with the rotation strategy for this season, and I will post shortly who I think complement each other well to avoid having to play unfavourable matchups as often as possible. 

To conclude then, it seems that the old adage of getting 'reliable minutes' is not always a useful measure of fantasy success and we should look for other means of determining value. While it seems obvious to say that price dictates performance, we can see that this holds truer for forwards than for other positions and so it seems wise to once again spend money up front, so long as you feel the EPL forwards will enjoy another good season.