Spanish Soccer - Football action continued today with four games of Round 29 of Liga scheduled. Here are the final results ( scores ) & all the goalscorers.
Valladolid hosted Osasuna & lost 1 - 3 to a more determined & effective visiting outfit. Osasuna are fighting for their Liga future & thus are very dangerous if not "finished off" early. Valladolid went ahead first via an own goal from
Sunday, March 31, 2013
IF MOURINHO GOES TO CHELSEA WILL HE TAKE CRISTIANO RONALDO ?
All the news is coming out of England. The daily newspapers - "Sunday Express", "Daily Mirror"...etc - place Real Madrid Coach José Mourinho back at the English Premier League Club Chelsea FC next season. The trip to London last week by Mourinho heightened the speculation, & the comment by the Portuguese Coach that he is committed to Real Madrid 100% until the end of the season ..."end of the
SPANISH SOCCER | SECOND DIVISION LEADING GOALSCORERS
No better time as now to give some focus to the Spanish Football 2º Division. While the Spanish League gets all the spotlight the "Silver Division" is just as exciting. Today I´ll give the current leading goalscorers in the 2º Division. There have been 32 Rounds celebrated to date & there is still 10 more Rounds left before the end of the season.While at Club level Elche looks almost certain to
LIONEL MESSI | SPANISH SOCCER GOALS RECORD - "LA VUELTA PERFECTA"
FC Barcelona Argentine ace Lionel Messi keeps breaking records. Yesterday with his 73rd min goal against Celta in Liga, the 4 time FIFA Golden Ball winner became the first player in Spanish Football - Soccer history to score a goal against all the Clubs in the First Division. That is, Messi has scored a goal in 19 straight Liga games.
Barcelona based Sports paper "Sport" has made this
Barcelona based Sports paper "Sport" has made this
Saturday, March 30, 2013
SPANISH SOCCER | LIGA | ROUND 29 SATURDAY GAMES RESULTS
Spanish Football was back in action after the International games break with Round 29 of Liga. Four matches scheduled today with the following game final scores & goalscorers.
Madrid Club Rayo Vallecano hosted Malaga FC & lost 1 - 3 in an entertaining game of Football. The locals played well but failed to take their opportunities, something the visitors managed to do well when given half
Madrid Club Rayo Vallecano hosted Malaga FC & lost 1 - 3 in an entertaining game of Football. The locals played well but failed to take their opportunities, something the visitors managed to do well when given half
REAL MADRID SHUTS DEAL FOR GARETH BALE ?
While Real Madrid Coach Jose Mourinho was spending a few days in London this week, many speculated that he was shutting a deal with Chelsea FC to return as Coach next season.However other sources had reported that Mourinho was doing something else. He was preparing the next season & in particular tying down the signing of Tottenham Hotspurs 24 year old Welsh star Gareth Bale.
Mourinho was in
Mourinho was in
MANCHESTER UNITED RETURNS TO TEMPT FC BARCELONA THIAGO ?
FC Barcelona young midfielder Thiago Alcantara needs more playing time. This is the general agreement within the players inner circle if the talented Spanish International is going to make himself a space within the Spanish National Football Team for the 2014 World Cup competition in Brazil.This is Thiago´s grand ambition to play for Spain in Brazil next year where he shares "nationality" with
Friday, March 29, 2013
ATLETICO DE MADRID MAKES MOVE ON VALLADOLID EBERT
The Spanish Sports paper "Marca" caught off guard Atletico de Madrid Football Director Jose Luis Camimero in a secret lunch meeting with Valladolid German player Patrick Ebert. This has sent out a string of rumours that Atletico has the Valladolid player on its list of signing for next season. One can take the speculation as serious as both met in a "middle ground" restaurant halfway between the
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Gameweek 31 Preview
Clean Sheet Rankings
Attacking Rankings
Individual Rankings
Note: Individual rankings are based on an historical average data model only and no account is taken of expected playing time or rotation risk. Where a players is confirmed as injured or suspended I endeavor to remove them for the below listings but assumptions regarding rotation are not included in the below analysis.
Note: Individual rankings are based on an historical average data model only and no account is taken of expected playing time or rotation risk. Where a players is confirmed as injured or suspended I endeavor to remove them for the below listings but assumptions regarding rotation are not included in the below analysis.
REAL MADRID FOLLOWING JUVENTUS ARTURO VIDAL ?
If in the below post I gave you the very latest on the Real Madrid signing rumours for next season, now I add another name that is doing the rounds. As I said Football is in constant flux & in permanent conflict with diverse interests between Clubs, agents, coaches, intermediaries & players all positioning themselves in the lucrative transfer market.
This time the news comes out of Italy &
This time the news comes out of Italy &
REAL MADRID SIGNING NEWS | CURRENT FOUR CANDIDATES - EXITS
The major European Football Clubs are making their moves & planning the upcoming 2013-2014 season. Real Madrid CF is one of them & rumours - as expected - are fast flying around on a daily basis. The associated names 6 possible next season candidates are long, but today I would like to home-in on four candidates. Just four names that are sounding on a regular basis, persistently, come from
RUSSIAN CLUB ANZHI OFFERS 10M€ / SEASON TO GOALIE VICTOR VALDES
The great performance by Spanish International & FC Barcelona goalkeeper last Tuesday night against France has shown everyone that Victor Valdes is in a select group of elite goalies in World Football.
The Barça player has announced to his Club that he does not desire to continue & wants to experiment new Football sensations elsewhere. FC Barcelona is making an "offensive" to change the mind of
The Barça player has announced to his Club that he does not desire to continue & wants to experiment new Football sensations elsewhere. FC Barcelona is making an "offensive" to change the mind of
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
FC BARCELONA | QUICKEST GOAL IN THE JUNIOR LEVELS | VIDEO
The junior levels of Spanish Football Club FC Barcelona has a World Football reputation of "creating" many gifted Football players. Their "Football School" known as "La Masia" ( The Home ) has a long list of current players in action ( Valdes, Pepe Reina, Messi, Iniesta, Xavi, Puyol, Pique, Busquets, Jordi Alba, Thiago, Bojan, Tello, Cesc Fabregas, Nolito, Goivani, Montoya, Beltran...the list is
ATLETICO DE MADRID WORKING TO RECOVER WOLFSBURG DIEGO RIBAS
It was mentioned here last week, Spanish Football Club Atletico de Madrid was working to recover Brazilian midfielder & German Club Wolfsburg player Diego Ribas. The Brazilian left an impressive memory last season at the Club while on-loan from Wolfsburg with his class & play making that helped take the Club onto the Europa League title.
Current Coach Diego Simeone has asked specifically that
Current Coach Diego Simeone has asked specifically that
FC BARCELONA WILL SIGN DORTMUND DEFENDER HUMMELS
It was mentioned here weeks back when the rumour came out of the Barcelona based Spanish Sports press. Today Football daily "AS" affirms that Borussia Dortmund Central Defender Matt Hummels will be soon a new player for FC Barcelona. The news itself has been picked up by German press "Bild" which comments that negotiations are advanced only needing the signatures of the parties at the end of the
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
FRANCE 0 SPAIN 1 | FINAL SCORE GROUP I WORLD CUP 2014 QUALIFIER
Objective achieved. The current World & European Champions Spain managed the three points to take the top spot of Group I from France. The final result in tonight's World Cup 2014 qualifier was 0 - 1 in favour of the Spanish Football National Team in a worked, difficult but deserved victory.Two distinct style with Spain true to its ball possession philosophy & France with tight defending
SPAIN NEW ALL RED UNIFORM AGAINST FRANCE
Thought it maybe of interest to the readers. The Spanish National Football Team will try out a "new look" uniform against France tonight in their Group I World Cup 2014 Qualifier. Well its not exactly new, the novelty is that Spain will dress with red shorts - a first in its History - which will give Spain an all Red aspect. Below is a picture of how Spain will look tonight in Paris
Strong
Strong
Monday, March 25, 2013
SPAIN 3 RUSSIA 1 | U-21 INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY
The Spanish National U-21 Football Team managed to turn around their International Friendly warm-up game against Russia winning 3 - 1. This was the last "dress rehearsal" for Spain before the upcoming European U-21 Championships in June.A very competitive Russian team gave a great workout for the Spaniards that sway the balance their way in the second half with goals from Muniain & Thiago.
SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAM USA JUNE FRIENDLY GAMES DATES
This is
news for the Spanish Football Sports readers from the United States.
The Spanish National Team will play two warm-up International Friendly matches
in the US before travelling
off to Brazil
for the FIFA Confederations Cup tournament. The first game will be against Haiti in the City of Miami on the 6th of June. The second match
will be in New York City against Northern Ireland
the 11th of
news for the Spanish Football Sports readers from the United States.
The Spanish National Team will play two warm-up International Friendly matches
in the US before travelling
off to Brazil
for the FIFA Confederations Cup tournament. The first game will be against Haiti in the City of Miami on the 6th of June. The second match
will be in New York City against Northern Ireland
the 11th of
REAL MADRID | SERGIO AGUERO NUMBER ONE SIGNING OBJECTIVE ?
Sergio Aguero is eclipsing what was before a "done deal" with Falcao. According to Spanish Sports news daily "AS", Argentine & Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero is the number one objective for Real Madrid next season.
Sergio Aguero, as said before in previous posts, desires to leave England more for personal reasons than professional. The separation with is wife who has not adapted to the
Sergio Aguero, as said before in previous posts, desires to leave England more for personal reasons than professional. The separation with is wife who has not adapted to the
Sunday, March 24, 2013
SFS FLASHBACKS | SPAIN 1 FRANCE 1 | VIDEO
Here is a Spanish Football Flashback to the first Group I game played in Madrid between Spain & France 5 months ago. The match ended in a 1 - 1 draw with goal from Sergio Ramos , a missed penalty from Cesc Fabregas & a mistake in the midfield by Spanish defender Juan Fran that allowed a French counter-attack that Giroud converted to equalize for France in the end of the match.
The
The
FRANCE vs SPAIN | POSSIBLE STARTING 11 TEAM LINE UPS
Important match for the Spanish National Football Team next Tuesday against France. The current European & World Champions need to win & get the three points to take the Top position of Group I. The first placed Nation gets a direct ticket for the 2014 World Cup competition in Brazil, while second placed has to play a "knock-out" tie with other second Group placed European Nations. This last
Saturday, March 23, 2013
SPAIN NATIONAL TEAM | ARBELOA - PIQUE OPEN UP CLUB WOUNDS AGAINST FINLAND ?
It is the national Sport in Spain - not Football | Soccer - to forget the past & the achievements quickly & criticise the failures in the present. The draw 1 - 1 by Spain with Finland has been received as a defeat by some observers & of course has unleashed the wagging tongues of criticism.My intention is not to participate, but will inform on stories coming out today that highlight the
SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAM PHOTO 2013
Found this picture of the Spanish National Football Team that started yesterday against Finland in their Group I World Cup 2014 qualifier. Posted thinking that it may delight the readers & fans around the World.
SPAIN LINE-UP TEAM PHOTO vs Finland March 2013
Line up:
Top: Arbeloa, Sergio Ramos, Busquets, Pique & Valdes
Bottom: Silva, Cesc Fabregas, Andres Iniesta, David Villa, Cazorla &
SPAIN LINE-UP TEAM PHOTO vs Finland March 2013
Line up:
Top: Arbeloa, Sergio Ramos, Busquets, Pique & Valdes
Bottom: Silva, Cesc Fabregas, Andres Iniesta, David Villa, Cazorla &
Friday, March 22, 2013
WORLD CUP QUALIFIER GROUP I RESULT | SPAIN 1 FINLAND 1
Spain ended their Group I 2014 Brazil World Cup qualifying match tonight in a 1 - 1 draw result against Finland. Not the result expected nor was it wanted as Group rival France defeated Georgia 3 - 1 & go top spot of the Group with 10 points , 2 more over Spain with 8 points. This puts unwanted pressure on Spain & into a must win situation when they meet France next Tuesday in Paris.
The
The
ATLETICO DE MADRID TEAM PHOTO 2013
There are more teams in Spanish Football than Real Madrid & FC Barcelona, & much more fans of other Liga Clubs spread around the World. In an attempt to try & please "the alternatives" I have found this great ATLETICO DE MADRID TEAM PHOTO 2013. If you are like myself an Atletico de Madrid fan & follower I think you will enjoy having this picture for your collection & even as a PC screen shot.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Player share of SiB
The new Tableau just launched and they've added treemaps, a form a visualisation I've been meaning to add to the site for some time. Now that Tableau carry this format, my existing data is already ready to go, so below is the first of likely many treemaps, here showing players' share of shots inside the box, split between games at home and away. Player share is given on a percentage basis based on the minutes they have played so you don't need to adjust for playing time. However, standard caveats on small samples should be noted, hence I've excluded all players with less than 900 total minutes played:
WORLD CUP 2014 | SPAIN vs FINLAND | POSSIBLE STARTING 11 TEAM LINE-UP FOR SPAIN
Tomorrow the Spanish National Football Team plays the first of two important 2014 Brazil World Cup Group I qualifiers. Their opponents will be Finland & they both will play in the Northern city of Gijon where the Spanish squad was greeted tonight by 17.000 local fans who watched the training session.
Spanish National Selector & Coach Vicente Del Bosque has already said publicly that FC
Spanish National Selector & Coach Vicente Del Bosque has already said publicly that FC
EURO U-21 FRIENDLY | SPAIN 5 NORWAY 2
The U-21 European Championships are just two months away. National U-21 teams are playing friendly matches & one of those celebrated tonight was Spain vs Norway. The final result went to Spain with a strong & convincing victory 5 - 2 over Norway.
Excellent testing for the Spaniards which started on the wrong foot due to a defensive mistake that opened the scoring for Norway in the 1st min. But
Excellent testing for the Spaniards which started on the wrong foot due to a defensive mistake that opened the scoring for Norway in the 1st min. But
REAL MADRID EYES YAYA TOURE IF HE LEAVES MANCHESTER CITY
Manchester City powerful Ivory Coast International midfielder Yaya Toure is not happy at his Club. The news coming out of England via the local press is that Manchester City has not offered a renewed & "bettered contract" which has "disturb" & disappointed Toure.
Dimitri Selçuk, the players representative has said publicly that Yaya wants out, & wants out at the end of this season. The exception
Dimitri Selçuk, the players representative has said publicly that Yaya wants out, & wants out at the end of this season. The exception
ATLETICO DE MADRID | MARTINEZ - DZEKO - YILMAZ
All news points that Spanish Football Club Atletico de Madrid has basically accepted & is preparing for the possible exit of its star forward Falcao at the end of this season. All rumours ( or indicators) suggest that English Premier League Club Chelsea FC is currently in the box seat.
With this horizon, Atletico de Madrid is already combing the market for a worthy substitute & replacement. The
With this horizon, Atletico de Madrid is already combing the market for a worthy substitute & replacement. The
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
IFFHS PRIZES FC BARCELONA | MESSI | INIESTA | BEST IN 2012
The FIFA backed International Federation of Football Statistics & History (IFFHS) has added more trophies for the collection for Spanish Football Club FC Barcelona & its players with the following prizes:
FC Barcelona was awarded "Best Football Club 2012"
Lionel Messi the "Best Goalscorer 2012", second year running
Andres Iniesta the "Best Player maker in World Football", taking over from
FC Barcelona was awarded "Best Football Club 2012"
Lionel Messi the "Best Goalscorer 2012", second year running
Andres Iniesta the "Best Player maker in World Football", taking over from
ATLETICO DE MADRID THINKING AGAIN ABOUT DIEGO RIBAS
According to Spanish Sports daily
"Marca" Atletico de Madrid is rethinking about recovering Brazilian
midfielder & German Club Wolfsburg player Diego Ribas for next season. It is also written
that Coach Simeone has specifically asked for the return of the Brazilian & this has
made it a priority in the offices of the Club. Apparently talks are underway.
The former Atletico number 22, who was on
"Marca" Atletico de Madrid is rethinking about recovering Brazilian
midfielder & German Club Wolfsburg player Diego Ribas for next season. It is also written
that Coach Simeone has specifically asked for the return of the Brazilian & this has
made it a priority in the offices of the Club. Apparently talks are underway.
The former Atletico number 22, who was on
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
SECRET MEETING IN MADRID FOR FALCAO | AT MADRID - CHELSEA FC
If yesterday I posted that Manchester City forward Sergio Aguero was "closer" to Real Madrid for next season, today I post that Atletico de Madrid forward Falcao seems closer to Chelsea FC.
According to a Spanish late night Football TV programme, there was a "secret" meeting in Madrid between Miguel Angel Gil, Atletico owner, Jorge Mendes, Falcao representative & Peter Kenyon in name of Chelsea
According to a Spanish late night Football TV programme, there was a "secret" meeting in Madrid between Miguel Angel Gil, Atletico owner, Jorge Mendes, Falcao representative & Peter Kenyon in name of Chelsea
TRANSFER NEWS | REAL MADRID - SERGIO AGUERO INSISTENT SPECULATION
Months back if you had to place a bet on Real Madrid CF signing a new forward for season 2013 - 2014 the name Radamel Falcao from Atletico de Madrid was odds-on favourite. The punters then went further to say that the Colombian International had a pre-agreement with Real Madrid & that it was a near shut case.
The last couple of weeks however, Manchester City Argentine International Sergio Aguero
The last couple of weeks however, Manchester City Argentine International Sergio Aguero
Monday, March 18, 2013
TOP 20 WORLD FOOTBALL - SOCCER - EARNERS 2013
Football magazine "France Football" has released their list of Top World Football Players earnings for 2013. The notable surprise is that David Beckham currently at French Club Paris St Germain over takes FC Barcelona star Lionel Messi in the Nº1 position. The French magazine complies salaries ( fixed & extras ) plus publicity/marketing earnings to calculate the figure. What calls my attention (
THE REAL REASONS GUARDIOLA LEFT FC BARCELONA
Eurosport
has published on their online edition the “real” reasons why the now Bayern Munich Coach Josep Guardiola left his position at FC Barcelona. Nothing new for many observers but
more evidence to the suspicions of which some maybe surprising. Here is the list
of the main motives.
Guardiola
has an excellent relationship with ex Barça President Joan Laporta. The current
Directive under
has published on their online edition the “real” reasons why the now Bayern Munich Coach Josep Guardiola left his position at FC Barcelona. Nothing new for many observers but
more evidence to the suspicions of which some maybe surprising. Here is the list
of the main motives.
Guardiola
has an excellent relationship with ex Barça President Joan Laporta. The current
Directive under
REAL MADRID | THEIR "ACHILLES HEEL" THIS SEASON
SpanishSports daily "AS" put in an interesting article today that highlights
the "Achilles heel" of Real Madrid this season: the set plays. They
give make interesting comments & give figures that ram home the point.
“We are
concerned about the goals from set pieces" comments Pepe. "In Europe these mistakes will be costly "says Club Directive Emilio
Butragueño."Our mistakes are due to lack of
the "Achilles heel" of Real Madrid this season: the set plays. They
give make interesting comments & give figures that ram home the point.
“We are
concerned about the goals from set pieces" comments Pepe. "In Europe these mistakes will be costly "says Club Directive Emilio
Butragueño."Our mistakes are due to lack of
REAL MADRID | XABI ALONSO ANNOUNCES TO CLUB HE WILL NOT RENEW CONTRACT
Spanish Football media ( radio & TV ) has let known what some observers were thinking, that Spanish International & Real Madrid midfielder Xabi Alonso will not be renewing his contract with Real Madrid. The player will be committing himself until June 30th of 2014 date which puts end to his current contract.
Alonso has notified the Club & the Club will be assisting him in a organic departure as
Alonso has notified the Club & the Club will be assisting him in a organic departure as
Sunday, March 17, 2013
SPANISH TENNIS | RAFAEL NADAL WINS INDIAN WELLS MASTERS 1000
Spanish Sportsman & greatest Spanish Tennis Player in History Rafael Nadal has gained his third Masters 1000 Indian Wells title after defeating Argentine ace Juan Martin Del Potro 6-4, 3 - 6, 6 - 4. The Spaniard in gaining this title jumps up the World Ranking to the N º 4 position after 7 months out recovering from a near career ending problem with his knees.
See-saw stuff with both players
See-saw stuff with both players
SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 28 SUNDAY GAMES RESULT
Spanish Football today celebrated five matches of Round 28 of Liga. Here is a brief summary of events, the final scores - results - & all the goalscorers.
Malaga FC was still celebrating their Champions League quarter-final berth & was defeated 0 - 2 by RCD Espanyol. The mind wasn't fully tuned as the opposition goals came from lack of concentration & mistakes. The first goal to Espanyol came
Malaga FC was still celebrating their Champions League quarter-final berth & was defeated 0 - 2 by RCD Espanyol. The mind wasn't fully tuned as the opposition goals came from lack of concentration & mistakes. The first goal to Espanyol came
SPANISH FOOTBALL | "EL PICHICHI"
The maximum Spanish Football - Liga - goalscorer each season is awarded the "Pichichi". A title invented & given by the Spanish Sports daily "Marca" since 1952-53. The Spanish Sports daily honoured a Spanish Football leyend & authentic goalscoring "machine" by calling their prize "Pichichi". But who is "Pichichi"?
Rafael Moreno Aranzadi "Pichichi"
Born: Bilbao (Bizkaia) , 23-05-1892
Death:
Rafael Moreno Aranzadi "Pichichi"
Born: Bilbao (Bizkaia) , 23-05-1892
Death:
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Late season form for mid table teams
You don't hear it so much these days - or at least I don't, having left the world of 24/7 Sky Sports News to one in which my weekly football dose is received in 90 minute spells with little or no nonsense chat - but anytime a mid table team would lose towards the end of the season, we always heard that they had one eye on their upcoming holiday and had mentally checked out by late March. If this is indeed the case then the fantasy impact would be huge as (a) we would obviously wish to avoid such players and (b) playing someone like Swansea would suddenly become a potentially easier fixture than facing a team battling to stay in the league.
The below assessment is very simplistic and should not be taken as an attempt to definitively answer this question. It's merely a first attempt to shed a little bit of light on this topic and see if there's something here to investigate. The analysis contains a number of limitations, not limited to:
The only obvious conclusion from the above chart is admittedly that nothing is obvious, but if you bear with me for a second, there are a couple of points to note:
On the face of it, the above data is quite promising with regards to identifying a genuine trend of late season declines/surges. We see more decline among top six teams and more improvement among the bottom six teams, though this is to be expected as those teams have further to fall/rise and - at least at the very top - we will have some seasons where the best teams are resting players once the league is effectively over if they are involved in other competitions. The key though are those middle teams, who have shown a much higher propensity for declining (47/80) rather than improving (33/80), which seems to fit with the popular narrative.
Less exciting is the above chart which shows that the majority of mid table teams (66%) improving or declining by just 0.5 GPG either way, though again, this was always likely given that they have less scope to rise or fall. The fact that we have three teams who declined by a full point per game all within the mid table category, is however a plus.
So, it looks like we have something here, namely that mid table teams do appear more likely to decline than improve, presumably with the teams at the bottom of the league vulturing their points more often that not. Let's dig a bit deeper though and see how they improve/decline in terms of goals scored/conceded.
There are a few questions coming out of this data which might be worth looking at in a future post, but for now let's stick with those mid table teams. We can see that they lost ground both in terms of goals scored and goals conceded, though the decline on the defensive side was more pronounced with the average decline being close to half a goal per game conceded. This again fits with expectations as it's easier to stay focused on the attacking side of the pitch, while mundane marking from corners or tracking a midfield run might seem less important when the end result isn't overly important.
So what does this all mean? Well, that's hard to say on such a high level but I think there's enough here to at least give us pause for thought before buying someone from the Swanseas and Fulhams of the world (particularly on the defensive side of the pitch). Saying that though, it should be noted that even given the above, teams in the bottom six still conceded, on average, 0.2 GPG more than the mid table teams over the end of season run in, so replacing those mid table defenders will be tricky. Considering that the offensive declines have been lower across the board, it might be advisable to try and put less emphasis on defense, trying to grab a couple of premium players to start every week then spot starting one of the cheaper options where you can. History would suggest that a four, or even a five, man defense would be inadvisable during the late stages of the season.
The below assessment is very simplistic and should not be taken as an attempt to definitively answer this question. It's merely a first attempt to shed a little bit of light on this topic and see if there's something here to investigate. The analysis contains a number of limitations, not limited to:
- I have not adjusted for strength of schedule, so while I'm comparing a team's form through 30 weeks versus the final eight weeks, if teams happen to play the best eight teams in the league to end of the season and lose most of them, the analysis would flag this as an exception where as in reality such results were pretty much expected.
- I have not factored in anything surrounding managerial changes or player transfers so if you believe that January signing or interim manager turned a team around, this wouldn't necessarily be explained below.
- I have not gone into why teams are winning or losing, only the end results. As we know, results can be misleading when judging how well a team is playing, and mere randomness would account for some fluctuation in points, even a team continued to generate and concede the exact same number of chances every week.
With those caveats in mind, let's take a look at the data. We have plotted the points per game of teams through the first 30 weeks of the season (PPG30) against their points per game through the final eight games (PPG8). I like this cutoff point as (a) it's the stage of the season we're at now and (b) by the 30 game mark you have a nice group of teams who are very likely safe but have little chance of making a run at a European spot (this year this is probably everyone between West Brom and Norwich). Our simple hypothesis would be that if a team averaged 1.8 PPG through the first 30 games, they should continue to do so through the final eight weeks (again, ignoring quality of opponent for a minute). What we would deem an interesting result is whether certain teams (say, those in the top six) continue to perform a ready rate, while others (say, those in mid table security) see a noticeable decline in results. For this reason, we have colour coded the chart to highlight each team's position at the 30 game mark (simply split between, top six (T6), mid table (mid) and the bottom six (B6):
- We've seen some pretty incredible changes in fortunes for teams at almost every position with teams like 06-07 Man United going from a 2.5 PPG average to 1.75 over the final 8 games, while 06-07 West Ham and 11-12 Wigan went from a 0.8 PPG average to finishing with championship form (2.25).
- While we have seen differences every season, there is clearly a strong trend here (r-squared = 0.88) so our starting point for teams should still be that we expect business as usual, rather than working on the assumption that the QPR and Readings of the world are all set for late season surges.
Let's pull some of the key trends from the data to see if anything else jumps out:
Less exciting is the above chart which shows that the majority of mid table teams (66%) improving or declining by just 0.5 GPG either way, though again, this was always likely given that they have less scope to rise or fall. The fact that we have three teams who declined by a full point per game all within the mid table category, is however a plus.
So, it looks like we have something here, namely that mid table teams do appear more likely to decline than improve, presumably with the teams at the bottom of the league vulturing their points more often that not. Let's dig a bit deeper though and see how they improve/decline in terms of goals scored/conceded.
There are a few questions coming out of this data which might be worth looking at in a future post, but for now let's stick with those mid table teams. We can see that they lost ground both in terms of goals scored and goals conceded, though the decline on the defensive side was more pronounced with the average decline being close to half a goal per game conceded. This again fits with expectations as it's easier to stay focused on the attacking side of the pitch, while mundane marking from corners or tracking a midfield run might seem less important when the end result isn't overly important.
So what does this all mean? Well, that's hard to say on such a high level but I think there's enough here to at least give us pause for thought before buying someone from the Swanseas and Fulhams of the world (particularly on the defensive side of the pitch). Saying that though, it should be noted that even given the above, teams in the bottom six still conceded, on average, 0.2 GPG more than the mid table teams over the end of season run in, so replacing those mid table defenders will be tricky. Considering that the offensive declines have been lower across the board, it might be advisable to try and put less emphasis on defense, trying to grab a couple of premium players to start every week then spot starting one of the cheaper options where you can. History would suggest that a four, or even a five, man defense would be inadvisable during the late stages of the season.
SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 28 SATURDAY MATCH RESULTS
Spanish Football today-night with Round 28 of Liga . One match was played yesterday & four were scheduled today. Here are all the final scores & all the goalscorers.
Last night the Galicia regional derby was played between Deportivo A Coruña last on the table & second last placed Celta de Vigo. Apart from the fierce rivalry between both Clubs each needed the three points to attempt to get
Last night the Galicia regional derby was played between Deportivo A Coruña last on the table & second last placed Celta de Vigo. Apart from the fierce rivalry between both Clubs each needed the three points to attempt to get
THE 10 MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS IN WORLD FOOTBALL
Our friends at "Transfermarket" have written an interesting article on what they consider the "10 most valuable players in World Football". But what is the meaning of value? I have looked up a few sites of reference & there are numerous definitions that cover every facet of life ( political, cultural, religious...economic). For such a simple 5 letter word we find a varying amount of
FC BARCELONA | ALEXIS SANCHEZ AGREES WITH INTER MILAN ?
FC Barcelona & Chilean International forward Alexis Sanchez has been appearing in Sports papers not for his goals but for intense rumours that places the player elsewhere from Barça next season. The Clubs mentioned have been Napoles & lately with stronger force Juventus.However, from Italy come the news via "La Gazzetta dello Sport", that Inter Milan may be the definite destination. It is written
LIST OF SPANISH FOOTBALL ALL-TIME GOALSCORER
Most of us follow closely the Spanish Football goalscorers tally. I for one check out weekly how the "Pichichi" classifications are going & its clear that for this season FC Barcelona astro Lionel Messi is the run away leader with currently 39 goals, a tally the he will increase from here till the end of the season. His nearest rival is Cristiano Ronaldo of Real Madrid with 26 goals.But what
Friday, March 15, 2013
SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAM LIST FOR FINLAND - FRANCE
Spanish National Football Team Coach & Selector Vicente Del Bosque has handed in this mid-day his list of 24 Football Players that will make up the Spanish Football Team for the upcoming World Cup Group qualifiers against Finland & France.
There are 24 players named with notable absences in Carles Puyol, Fernando Torres & Javi Martinez. The novelty is the call up of Manchester United & Spanish
There are 24 players named with notable absences in Carles Puyol, Fernando Torres & Javi Martinez. The novelty is the call up of Manchester United & Spanish
SPANISH FOOTBALL CLUBS | CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUARTER-FINAL DRAW
UEFA held this noon the Champions League draw for the quater-finals with the following match ups:
Although all the Clubs at this stage are powerful there are some Clubs that wished not to meet each other so early. The final match-ups show Real Madrid against Galatasaray which is "relatively" accessible, while FC Barcelona has perhaps harder work with Paris St Germain & Malaga FC will have to
Although all the Clubs at this stage are powerful there are some Clubs that wished not to meet each other so early. The final match-ups show Real Madrid against Galatasaray which is "relatively" accessible, while FC Barcelona has perhaps harder work with Paris St Germain & Malaga FC will have to
Thursday, March 14, 2013
REAL MADRID | FALCAO OR AGUERO, THAT IS THE QUESTION
Hamlet, the
Shakespearean character of the play with the same name, wrestled with his
existential dilemma & asked, “to be or not to be that is the question”. This
has profound philosophical ramifications but the question is universal, reality
advances via choices & decisions affect the future. In Football decisions , elections & options have ripple effects in the Clubs future.
Spanish
Shakespearean character of the play with the same name, wrestled with his
existential dilemma & asked, “to be or not to be that is the question”. This
has profound philosophical ramifications but the question is universal, reality
advances via choices & decisions affect the future. In Football decisions , elections & options have ripple effects in the Clubs future.
Spanish
EUROPA LEAGUE RESULT | RUBIN KAZAN 2 LEVANTE 0
Russian Club Rubin Kazan has knocked out another Spanish Football Club from the Europa League competition. After eliminating Atletico de Madrid, the Russians have defeated Levante 2 - 0 in extra-time to finish off the dream Euro run of the latter & they in turn get themselves into the quarter-finals.
The Spanish side missed the influential forward Martins who was recently sold to USA Club
The Spanish side missed the influential forward Martins who was recently sold to USA Club
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 29
A slight change of pace with this week's fanning the flames piece due to a couple of observations over the last few weeks and months. First, I felt that old graphic didn't really show enough information that might lead us to fan said flame (or, more likely douse those hyped up fires). Second, looking at the data on a single week basis was always going to lead to a large number of 'variances' due to the ridiculously small samples involved. I've therefore currently included three gameweeks of data, but have built the model to allow for anywhere between one and five to be included so this may again be tweaked in the future. Finally, this is a piece which should probably run every two or three weeks to avoid too much repetition, so this new format lends itself more to that time frame.
First then, let's look at the new graphic and a couple of lines to illuminate the way the data is intended to be read:
The G, xG, A, xA, P and xP simply set out the expected goals, assists and points for the selected player over the defined period (in this case three weeks). The only point to note is that the expected values are based on the actual shot totals accrued, rather than the model which uses historic averages. The key reason for differences therefore will be players converting chances at a higher than expected rate, a telltale sign that we way wish to temper our excitement after a big game or two.
The charts are split into two categories: trends and full season data. The former show the players' performance over the last x weeks (again, this time we're using three) and the latter shows the conversion rates for the full season. The key point here of course is to illustrate unusually high conversion rates to suggest that a player's uptick in "form" may be unsustainable or that it is a genuine product of taking more quality shots etc.
SiB% Percentage of a player's shots taken inside the box
SoT% Percentage of a player's shots that hit the target (a rate that limited research suggests is a sustainable skills rather than goals per SoT which appears to be heavily luck driven)
CC% Percentage of player's created chances converted into assists
Without further delay then, on with the analysis:
Gabriel Agbonlahor
It's not that Agbonlahor is totally without appeal, it's just that for 0.3m you can upgrade to the legitimately excellent Benteke, who is still held by an inexplicably low 11% of managers. As we can see from his data here, his 'success' has been more attributable to higher conversion rates, with his goal coming on just two SoT, which then of course earned him a dubious three bonus points which are still massively correlated to goals.
Status: Sell
Gareth Bale
I try not to dwell on the elite players in these pieces as you all know that Bale is one of, if not the best midfielder in the league right now, but just to emphasise that point: a quick scroll through each of the highlighted players will show that only three players boasted an xP of 10 or more, with Bale topping them all with a stunning 16. This score was supported by 20 (twenty!) shots and 12 created chances, so while it's inevitable that he can't quite continue at this rate for the rest of the season, there is more than enough here to justify any price rises or the large ownership numbers. The only knock on Bale is the lack of double gameweeks on his horizon, which puts him at a slight disadvantage to some of his premium peers.
Status: Buy
Dimitar Berbatov
Berbatov appears to have lost some of his luster of late, seeing him lose 170k followers over the past few weeks. That will likely change after back-to-back scoring games and there's enough evidence in the data to suggest his success may be sustainable. You don't love this week's trip to White Hart Lane but otherwise Fulham enjoy a decent run for the remainder of the year and Berbatov is well placed to take advantage of those fixtures. There's some concern about the rate at which he's hit the target of late, but the Bulgarian continues to take quality shots and is helped out by his penalty duties to supplement his points haul. He isn't as flashy as the likes of Benteke or Lukaku (who admittedly, I hype all the time) but his ownership numbers are now considerably below that pair (along with other mid level favourites like Lambert, Fletcher and Sturridge) and thus he deserves some attention.
Status: Buy
Yohan Cabaye
I love Cabaye and given my complaints in the past about a lack of central midfielders in the league who can genuinely dominate a game for 90 minutes, I'm delighted to see him emerge as a force at Newcastle. The shot totals are great too but that SiB% is worrying and needless to say he won't continue to hit the target at a 50% clip is he continues to shoot from long distance (even if he can shoot with the accuracy shown this week with his delightful free kick). His goalscoring threat is, of course, supplemented by a very good assist potential, though for one reason or another his teammates haven't helped him to date in that department (one assist from 36 created chances). The upcoming trip to Wigan is harder than it sounds and given the follow up date with Man City at the Etihad, there's strong reason to hold off here for a couple of weeks. After that though Cabaye is an interesting pickup at 6.6m if you aren't convinced by Sissoko's prospects in this side.
Status: Consider investment after GW31.
Santi Cazorla
Cazorla is another once-loved option who lost 150k owners in a matter of weeks before bouncing back with a couple of good performances in GW26-27. The data above (only based on two games given Arsenal's off week in GW29) shows nothing out of the ordinary other than a slightly higher tendency to take shots inside the box (and of course of a note of caution that his two goals came against a weak Villa side). Arsenal's next four gameweeks are pretty sensational on paper, and even extended to the end of the year look pretty solid, meaning that the likes of Cazorla could easily be slotted into your lineup and relied upon from here on if you so desire.
Status: Buy in a vacuum, though he's still behind Bale in the model
Papiss Cisse
I was set to write that Newcastle have really turned a corner of late, adding 12 goals over their last 6 games, but a closer look at the data makes me a touch nervous. Over that period that have created, on average, 25% less SiB than other teams did against those same opponents, with the only positive being the +47% performance against Chelsea (without that game they average -39%). There have been plenty of long range efforts, but while I sung the praises of Cabaye above, I'm not willing to heavily back a team who are relying on lottery-shots for success, especially when it comes to judging Cisse. The model sees Cisse as more of a Benteke/Berbatov/Fletcher type player, and I don't see anything to really justify the premium needed to upgrade to him over that trio (among others). One positive is his low ownership number, though given that required premium, I'd personally prefer to hold the more popular option this time, and try and differentiate elsewhere, where better value can be found.
Status: Sell based on that price tag
Jack Collison
It appears that Nolan, Noble and Cole are all short term absentees so the increase in playing time for Collison will likely be short lived.
Status: Sell
Stewart Downing
Downing is a potentially perfect Moneyball type player, as the very mention of his name sends scores of fans into giggling hysterics, particularly if accompanied by any kind of praise. His apparent security in this very promising Liverpool side is certainly a plus, as is the rate he's been taking close range shots (which has clearly improved of late too, whether by chance or design is less clear). The problem is still a lack of volume of efforts though, and his goal this week was obviously a touch fortunate (though in his defense, he did have to be in a good position and then finish it off). At 5.7m he's possibly a touch overpriced as he really belongs in the same group as the Puncheon/Pilkington/Maloney group, but if you have a small amount of cash lying around and are currently invested in someone whose form or playing time has suffered, I don't think it's crazy to take a look at the oft-mocked winger. The next four games look solid (though three are on the road) and a lack of double gameweek potential does hurt him over several of his peers, but his 1% ownership is a factor and anybody who gets to play with Sturridge and Suarez every week with little competition for playing time looks okay to me.
Status: Cautious buy, though I'd still say better upside can be found in his price bracket.
Marouane Fellaini
The trends for Fellaini show a fantasy player in decline, though in fairness he is coming down from a frankly insane platform where we was racking up elite SiB totals on a weekly basis for a mid level price tag. The fixtures don't look too promising for Everton, at least for the next three weeks, after which they get the double gameweek (though with half of that coming at the Emirates I wouldn't be forecasting huge totals for Fellaini and co that week either). A look at the midfield points standings shows that no one ahead of Fellaini can be had for close to his price tag, and that probably holds up for projections too, though with the tougher fixtures and his declining stats, I'd venture he's probably closer to the 6-7.0m group now than his is to the truly elite options above him.
Status: Still ownable but he shouldn't be targeted until GW33 for the double gameweek.
Junior Hoilett
Hoilett is a useful player, though as a Canadian resident I am obliged to offer a comment that he really needs to give up on his chances of playing for England and come to the great white north. Moving on from that though, Hoilett looks like a classic regression candidate, having hit the target with every one of his shots these past couple of weeks, while getting his three created chances converted into two goals. While I like Remy quite a bit, I think we can conclude that QPR aren't ready to shatter conversion records this year, so I'll pass on Hoilett until we see quite a lot more from the Canadian.
Status: Sell
Shinji Kagawa
Three shots, three on target and three goals (extremely well taken I might add). However, the fact that we only have one game of data here illustrates the chief concern here: playing time. I love the idea of Kagawa, particularly if deployed further up field, but nothing to date suggests that situation is sustainable.
Status: Sell
Arouna Kone
Kone's numbers look good and haven't really fluctuated over the past run of games so there's good reason to buy what the Ivorian has been selling of late. There's a lot to like with Wigan's fixtures, and aside from the trip to the Etihad, you probably feel good starting Kone in every game from here on in. The fact that Wigan absolutely have to try and win every game is a further bonus as the traditional late season slumps may start to kick in for some of the mid table teams (on another note, has anyone ever actually researched this? Do mid table teams tend to 'slack off' towards the end of the year or is that just a convenient narrative to explain natural slumps in form? Sounds like a project to me). Anyway, at 6.5m he's right in that group with a few of the players mentioned above (and below) and his upcoming fixtures and low ownership number may well propel him towards the top of that class.
Status: Buy
Rickie Lambert
There's really nothing to be said about Lambert that hasn't already featured in these very electronic pages. His consistency has been excellent for a mid level option, with 13 games of 5 or more points and 2 points or more every week bar one. He lacks the upside of some of the flashier picks (as evidence by just three double digit games in 29 appearances) but he makes up for it with his penalty duties which help flatten his production and allow him the potential to contribute against any team. Though the results have taken a turn for the worse, Southampton are still creating plenty of chances and scoring goals at a decent clip, and thus Lambert looks well placed to continue his useful fantasy form. The fixtures alone wouldn't necessarily turn me off, but together with his slightly higher price tag, I'd suggest that Lambert is probably towards the bottom of the best mid-level options, but he remains ownable and moving him on isn't a priority if your team is struggling.
Status: Hold
Romelu Lukaku
Another excellent mid level forward, Lukaku has been simply sensational this year and his star would be even brighter had he not been held back through a lack of playing time. For context, the list of players with a better goals per 90 minute rate than Lukaku starts and ends with Javier Hernandez (who has only played for 690 minutes). Lukaku's rate of 0.86 goals every 90 minutes tops Suarez (0.79), van Persie (0.77) and Rooney (0.66) while obliterating his mid-level peers in Sturridge (0.54), Benteke (0.50) and Lambert (0.46). Just imagine where we'd be if Steve Clark had read the Moneyball piece over at Fantasy Football Scout. As it is, this isn't a great time to invest, with a couple of tricky away trips (Stoke and West Ham) followed by Arsenal at home and then a week off. GW34-37 look great though, particularly if sweetened by a double gameweek, so though I wouldn't necessarily be looking to pull the trigger now, he's certainly someone to keep in mind.
Status: Monitor, and wait for better fixtures
Leon Osman
I like Osman quite a bit and would give him a look were Everton a team that was steam rolling opponents, as they were for a while in the early stages of the season. Now, however, while it's unfair to say they're in poor form, they are certainly more inconsistent than before and thus the fringe players like Osman can sometimes get left out in the cold for weeks on end in terms of points production. I'm still okay owning the alpha dog (Fellaini) in this team but Osman isn't cheap enough to offer value as a bit part player in an increasingly inconsistent team.
Status: Sell
Steve Pienaar
Pienaar is essentially in the same situation as Osman, though he does bring a better assist threat. Still, his price puts him in an awkward spot between those who can be relied on more readily and those who come at a substantial discount. That, plus the aforementioned struggles and upcoming fixture list make the South African a sell too.
Status: Sell
Loic Remy
I had heard about Remy before he came to the Premier League, but had never seen him play until his scoring debut against West Ham. I was impressed then and nothing has countered those initial feelings in the subsequent weeks. His SoT% over the last few games is obviously too high but his 50% rate for the year looks fine and while his G/SoT again looks unsustainable, he's clearly doing enough to offer some value at 5.9m, just be careful you're not assuming he's going to score in three of every four starts. Despite the hype around Redknapp, I would offer a word of caution that under his guidance the team is averaging 37% less SiB that opponent adjusted league average (-7% under Hughes) and this has actually declined of late with a -48% rate over the last 10 games. They may be more "committed", "gritty" or "harder to beat" but in fantasy we generally care about volume of chances and only the truly special players can overcome a lack of chances to become an elite fantasy option. Whether or not Remy is there is questionable but the encouraging point is that while QPR have struggled to create quality chances, a large percentage of them (42%) are falling at Remy's feet and thus he can still succeed despite his teams limitations. The fixtures look good enough and Remy comes at a nice discount, suggesting he too deserves a look in this crowded mid level group.
Status: Buy
Morgan Schneiderlin
Schneiderlin's shot totals look balanced but only in the same way that the return on investment earned on sticking your money under the mattress is consistent every year. Simply put, he isn't a fantasy option.
Status: Sell
Stephane Sessegnon
Sessegnon was one of the players I was interested in coming into the year and while it feels like he never really got going this campaign, his totals will actually end being okay. I'm not crazy about this Sunderland team's consistency and I do fear that they could be one of those teams who simply drift through the rest of the season if the results suggest they are relatively safe in the next couple of weeks. The next six games look pretty tough after this week's visit of Norwich and for 7.1m Sessegnon is too expensive to be spot starting sporadically.
Status: Sell
Gylfi Sigurdsson
Good player, bad situation. Lennon and Dempsey are both said to be close to a return, with Adebayor also rated as 75% to play this week to further cloud the playing time at White Hart Lane. I like this Spurs team and really want another way to access it outside of Bale but Villas Boas hasn't shown too much faith in Sigurdsson when everyone is fit and I'm not willing to bet 7.8m that he changes his mind at this point in the year.
Status: Sell
David Silva
Oh David, what happened? Once hailed as the best fantasy midfielder in the league, his shot totals are now so meager that even his ultra-elite assist potential can only rescue him to the point of justifying a price tag about 2.0m less than his own. I've been waiting for City to turn things around all year, and while they've shown flashes at times, the inability to get their best players on the pitch and in the key positions has cost them and anyone who invested in their stars. The upcoming games don't look great and with plenty of other elite midfield options, the great Spaniard simply isn't an option anymore.
Status: Sell
Luis Suarez
Suarez's trend numbers look a touch worrying, but remember that they are based on just two games worth of data given Liverpool's lack of fixture in GW27. Needless to say he hasn't justified his insane points return over those couple of weeks (it would be impossible to do so based on an average model like mine) but there is really nothing in the data or the narrative to cause any concern here. The only slight knock are the fixtures which see Liverpool face three away games in the next four (all to teams fighting to stay in the league) compounded by a lack of a double gameweek enjoyed by some of his peers. Still, right now you're getting van Persie production for a 20% discount so you can't have everything.
Status: Buy
Carlos Tevez
Meh. Like Silva, it's hard to totally write Tevez off as these players are so talented that they can make a humble blogger look rather foolish, but the odds just aren't in Tevez's favour with his recent 'form' looking to be as much attributable to a higher G/SoT conversion rate than some sustainable skill improvement or tactical revelation. Throw in a continued lack of guaranteed playing time and you have a player whose production is closer to the pack behind him rather than the elite pair ahead of him and thus he's another City prospect I'm out on for now.
Status: Sell
Andreas Weimann
Weimann has done really well when he's played and he actually rated atop the model projections for last week but I filtered him out due to the lack of sample size of his production. He's creating a lot of chances to supplement a healthy shot total, while his ratios have remained solid and consistent throughout his starts. With Bent close to a return and N'Zogbia/Agbonlahor also competing for finite time alongside Benteke, I'm a bit nervous about how often Weimann will play, but for 5.0m he's certainly worth a look and would make a nice third forward for those needing to free up cash to use elsewhere. The playing time risk might make me hesitate about using a transfer on him (for fear you'll need to sell again very soon) but if you're lucky enough to have the wildcard in hand, Weimann is a nice option to supplement your elite picks.
Status: Cautious buy in the right situation
Yaya Toure
The good news is that he's probably offering close to the same value as teammate Silva (with a slightly lower assist threat) but I'm not sure that's even enough to justify his price tag. Yaya seems to be used in an advanced role more sparingly this season and given City's upcoming games I just can't get excited about him anymore.
Status: Sell
First then, let's look at the new graphic and a couple of lines to illuminate the way the data is intended to be read:
The G, xG, A, xA, P and xP simply set out the expected goals, assists and points for the selected player over the defined period (in this case three weeks). The only point to note is that the expected values are based on the actual shot totals accrued, rather than the model which uses historic averages. The key reason for differences therefore will be players converting chances at a higher than expected rate, a telltale sign that we way wish to temper our excitement after a big game or two.
The charts are split into two categories: trends and full season data. The former show the players' performance over the last x weeks (again, this time we're using three) and the latter shows the conversion rates for the full season. The key point here of course is to illustrate unusually high conversion rates to suggest that a player's uptick in "form" may be unsustainable or that it is a genuine product of taking more quality shots etc.
SiB% Percentage of a player's shots taken inside the box
SoT% Percentage of a player's shots that hit the target (a rate that limited research suggests is a sustainable skills rather than goals per SoT which appears to be heavily luck driven)
CC% Percentage of player's created chances converted into assists
Without further delay then, on with the analysis:
Gabriel Agbonlahor
It's not that Agbonlahor is totally without appeal, it's just that for 0.3m you can upgrade to the legitimately excellent Benteke, who is still held by an inexplicably low 11% of managers. As we can see from his data here, his 'success' has been more attributable to higher conversion rates, with his goal coming on just two SoT, which then of course earned him a dubious three bonus points which are still massively correlated to goals.
Status: Sell
Gareth Bale
I try not to dwell on the elite players in these pieces as you all know that Bale is one of, if not the best midfielder in the league right now, but just to emphasise that point: a quick scroll through each of the highlighted players will show that only three players boasted an xP of 10 or more, with Bale topping them all with a stunning 16. This score was supported by 20 (twenty!) shots and 12 created chances, so while it's inevitable that he can't quite continue at this rate for the rest of the season, there is more than enough here to justify any price rises or the large ownership numbers. The only knock on Bale is the lack of double gameweeks on his horizon, which puts him at a slight disadvantage to some of his premium peers.
Status: Buy
Dimitar Berbatov
Berbatov appears to have lost some of his luster of late, seeing him lose 170k followers over the past few weeks. That will likely change after back-to-back scoring games and there's enough evidence in the data to suggest his success may be sustainable. You don't love this week's trip to White Hart Lane but otherwise Fulham enjoy a decent run for the remainder of the year and Berbatov is well placed to take advantage of those fixtures. There's some concern about the rate at which he's hit the target of late, but the Bulgarian continues to take quality shots and is helped out by his penalty duties to supplement his points haul. He isn't as flashy as the likes of Benteke or Lukaku (who admittedly, I hype all the time) but his ownership numbers are now considerably below that pair (along with other mid level favourites like Lambert, Fletcher and Sturridge) and thus he deserves some attention.
Status: Buy
Yohan Cabaye
I love Cabaye and given my complaints in the past about a lack of central midfielders in the league who can genuinely dominate a game for 90 minutes, I'm delighted to see him emerge as a force at Newcastle. The shot totals are great too but that SiB% is worrying and needless to say he won't continue to hit the target at a 50% clip is he continues to shoot from long distance (even if he can shoot with the accuracy shown this week with his delightful free kick). His goalscoring threat is, of course, supplemented by a very good assist potential, though for one reason or another his teammates haven't helped him to date in that department (one assist from 36 created chances). The upcoming trip to Wigan is harder than it sounds and given the follow up date with Man City at the Etihad, there's strong reason to hold off here for a couple of weeks. After that though Cabaye is an interesting pickup at 6.6m if you aren't convinced by Sissoko's prospects in this side.
Status: Consider investment after GW31.
Santi Cazorla
Cazorla is another once-loved option who lost 150k owners in a matter of weeks before bouncing back with a couple of good performances in GW26-27. The data above (only based on two games given Arsenal's off week in GW29) shows nothing out of the ordinary other than a slightly higher tendency to take shots inside the box (and of course of a note of caution that his two goals came against a weak Villa side). Arsenal's next four gameweeks are pretty sensational on paper, and even extended to the end of the year look pretty solid, meaning that the likes of Cazorla could easily be slotted into your lineup and relied upon from here on if you so desire.
Status: Buy in a vacuum, though he's still behind Bale in the model
Papiss Cisse
I was set to write that Newcastle have really turned a corner of late, adding 12 goals over their last 6 games, but a closer look at the data makes me a touch nervous. Over that period that have created, on average, 25% less SiB than other teams did against those same opponents, with the only positive being the +47% performance against Chelsea (without that game they average -39%). There have been plenty of long range efforts, but while I sung the praises of Cabaye above, I'm not willing to heavily back a team who are relying on lottery-shots for success, especially when it comes to judging Cisse. The model sees Cisse as more of a Benteke/Berbatov/Fletcher type player, and I don't see anything to really justify the premium needed to upgrade to him over that trio (among others). One positive is his low ownership number, though given that required premium, I'd personally prefer to hold the more popular option this time, and try and differentiate elsewhere, where better value can be found.
Status: Sell based on that price tag
Jack Collison
It appears that Nolan, Noble and Cole are all short term absentees so the increase in playing time for Collison will likely be short lived.
Status: Sell
Stewart Downing
Downing is a potentially perfect Moneyball type player, as the very mention of his name sends scores of fans into giggling hysterics, particularly if accompanied by any kind of praise. His apparent security in this very promising Liverpool side is certainly a plus, as is the rate he's been taking close range shots (which has clearly improved of late too, whether by chance or design is less clear). The problem is still a lack of volume of efforts though, and his goal this week was obviously a touch fortunate (though in his defense, he did have to be in a good position and then finish it off). At 5.7m he's possibly a touch overpriced as he really belongs in the same group as the Puncheon/Pilkington/Maloney group, but if you have a small amount of cash lying around and are currently invested in someone whose form or playing time has suffered, I don't think it's crazy to take a look at the oft-mocked winger. The next four games look solid (though three are on the road) and a lack of double gameweek potential does hurt him over several of his peers, but his 1% ownership is a factor and anybody who gets to play with Sturridge and Suarez every week with little competition for playing time looks okay to me.
Status: Cautious buy, though I'd still say better upside can be found in his price bracket.
Marouane Fellaini
The trends for Fellaini show a fantasy player in decline, though in fairness he is coming down from a frankly insane platform where we was racking up elite SiB totals on a weekly basis for a mid level price tag. The fixtures don't look too promising for Everton, at least for the next three weeks, after which they get the double gameweek (though with half of that coming at the Emirates I wouldn't be forecasting huge totals for Fellaini and co that week either). A look at the midfield points standings shows that no one ahead of Fellaini can be had for close to his price tag, and that probably holds up for projections too, though with the tougher fixtures and his declining stats, I'd venture he's probably closer to the 6-7.0m group now than his is to the truly elite options above him.
Status: Still ownable but he shouldn't be targeted until GW33 for the double gameweek.
Junior Hoilett
Hoilett is a useful player, though as a Canadian resident I am obliged to offer a comment that he really needs to give up on his chances of playing for England and come to the great white north. Moving on from that though, Hoilett looks like a classic regression candidate, having hit the target with every one of his shots these past couple of weeks, while getting his three created chances converted into two goals. While I like Remy quite a bit, I think we can conclude that QPR aren't ready to shatter conversion records this year, so I'll pass on Hoilett until we see quite a lot more from the Canadian.
Status: Sell
Shinji Kagawa
Three shots, three on target and three goals (extremely well taken I might add). However, the fact that we only have one game of data here illustrates the chief concern here: playing time. I love the idea of Kagawa, particularly if deployed further up field, but nothing to date suggests that situation is sustainable.
Status: Sell
Arouna Kone
Kone's numbers look good and haven't really fluctuated over the past run of games so there's good reason to buy what the Ivorian has been selling of late. There's a lot to like with Wigan's fixtures, and aside from the trip to the Etihad, you probably feel good starting Kone in every game from here on in. The fact that Wigan absolutely have to try and win every game is a further bonus as the traditional late season slumps may start to kick in for some of the mid table teams (on another note, has anyone ever actually researched this? Do mid table teams tend to 'slack off' towards the end of the year or is that just a convenient narrative to explain natural slumps in form? Sounds like a project to me). Anyway, at 6.5m he's right in that group with a few of the players mentioned above (and below) and his upcoming fixtures and low ownership number may well propel him towards the top of that class.
Status: Buy
Rickie Lambert
There's really nothing to be said about Lambert that hasn't already featured in these very electronic pages. His consistency has been excellent for a mid level option, with 13 games of 5 or more points and 2 points or more every week bar one. He lacks the upside of some of the flashier picks (as evidence by just three double digit games in 29 appearances) but he makes up for it with his penalty duties which help flatten his production and allow him the potential to contribute against any team. Though the results have taken a turn for the worse, Southampton are still creating plenty of chances and scoring goals at a decent clip, and thus Lambert looks well placed to continue his useful fantasy form. The fixtures alone wouldn't necessarily turn me off, but together with his slightly higher price tag, I'd suggest that Lambert is probably towards the bottom of the best mid-level options, but he remains ownable and moving him on isn't a priority if your team is struggling.
Status: Hold
Romelu Lukaku
Another excellent mid level forward, Lukaku has been simply sensational this year and his star would be even brighter had he not been held back through a lack of playing time. For context, the list of players with a better goals per 90 minute rate than Lukaku starts and ends with Javier Hernandez (who has only played for 690 minutes). Lukaku's rate of 0.86 goals every 90 minutes tops Suarez (0.79), van Persie (0.77) and Rooney (0.66) while obliterating his mid-level peers in Sturridge (0.54), Benteke (0.50) and Lambert (0.46). Just imagine where we'd be if Steve Clark had read the Moneyball piece over at Fantasy Football Scout. As it is, this isn't a great time to invest, with a couple of tricky away trips (Stoke and West Ham) followed by Arsenal at home and then a week off. GW34-37 look great though, particularly if sweetened by a double gameweek, so though I wouldn't necessarily be looking to pull the trigger now, he's certainly someone to keep in mind.
Status: Monitor, and wait for better fixtures
Leon Osman
I like Osman quite a bit and would give him a look were Everton a team that was steam rolling opponents, as they were for a while in the early stages of the season. Now, however, while it's unfair to say they're in poor form, they are certainly more inconsistent than before and thus the fringe players like Osman can sometimes get left out in the cold for weeks on end in terms of points production. I'm still okay owning the alpha dog (Fellaini) in this team but Osman isn't cheap enough to offer value as a bit part player in an increasingly inconsistent team.
Status: Sell
Steve Pienaar
Pienaar is essentially in the same situation as Osman, though he does bring a better assist threat. Still, his price puts him in an awkward spot between those who can be relied on more readily and those who come at a substantial discount. That, plus the aforementioned struggles and upcoming fixture list make the South African a sell too.
Status: Sell
Loic Remy
I had heard about Remy before he came to the Premier League, but had never seen him play until his scoring debut against West Ham. I was impressed then and nothing has countered those initial feelings in the subsequent weeks. His SoT% over the last few games is obviously too high but his 50% rate for the year looks fine and while his G/SoT again looks unsustainable, he's clearly doing enough to offer some value at 5.9m, just be careful you're not assuming he's going to score in three of every four starts. Despite the hype around Redknapp, I would offer a word of caution that under his guidance the team is averaging 37% less SiB that opponent adjusted league average (-7% under Hughes) and this has actually declined of late with a -48% rate over the last 10 games. They may be more "committed", "gritty" or "harder to beat" but in fantasy we generally care about volume of chances and only the truly special players can overcome a lack of chances to become an elite fantasy option. Whether or not Remy is there is questionable but the encouraging point is that while QPR have struggled to create quality chances, a large percentage of them (42%) are falling at Remy's feet and thus he can still succeed despite his teams limitations. The fixtures look good enough and Remy comes at a nice discount, suggesting he too deserves a look in this crowded mid level group.
Status: Buy
Morgan Schneiderlin
Schneiderlin's shot totals look balanced but only in the same way that the return on investment earned on sticking your money under the mattress is consistent every year. Simply put, he isn't a fantasy option.
Status: Sell
Stephane Sessegnon
Sessegnon was one of the players I was interested in coming into the year and while it feels like he never really got going this campaign, his totals will actually end being okay. I'm not crazy about this Sunderland team's consistency and I do fear that they could be one of those teams who simply drift through the rest of the season if the results suggest they are relatively safe in the next couple of weeks. The next six games look pretty tough after this week's visit of Norwich and for 7.1m Sessegnon is too expensive to be spot starting sporadically.
Status: Sell
Gylfi Sigurdsson
Good player, bad situation. Lennon and Dempsey are both said to be close to a return, with Adebayor also rated as 75% to play this week to further cloud the playing time at White Hart Lane. I like this Spurs team and really want another way to access it outside of Bale but Villas Boas hasn't shown too much faith in Sigurdsson when everyone is fit and I'm not willing to bet 7.8m that he changes his mind at this point in the year.
Status: Sell
David Silva
Oh David, what happened? Once hailed as the best fantasy midfielder in the league, his shot totals are now so meager that even his ultra-elite assist potential can only rescue him to the point of justifying a price tag about 2.0m less than his own. I've been waiting for City to turn things around all year, and while they've shown flashes at times, the inability to get their best players on the pitch and in the key positions has cost them and anyone who invested in their stars. The upcoming games don't look great and with plenty of other elite midfield options, the great Spaniard simply isn't an option anymore.
Status: Sell
Luis Suarez
Suarez's trend numbers look a touch worrying, but remember that they are based on just two games worth of data given Liverpool's lack of fixture in GW27. Needless to say he hasn't justified his insane points return over those couple of weeks (it would be impossible to do so based on an average model like mine) but there is really nothing in the data or the narrative to cause any concern here. The only slight knock are the fixtures which see Liverpool face three away games in the next four (all to teams fighting to stay in the league) compounded by a lack of a double gameweek enjoyed by some of his peers. Still, right now you're getting van Persie production for a 20% discount so you can't have everything.
Status: Buy
Carlos Tevez
Meh. Like Silva, it's hard to totally write Tevez off as these players are so talented that they can make a humble blogger look rather foolish, but the odds just aren't in Tevez's favour with his recent 'form' looking to be as much attributable to a higher G/SoT conversion rate than some sustainable skill improvement or tactical revelation. Throw in a continued lack of guaranteed playing time and you have a player whose production is closer to the pack behind him rather than the elite pair ahead of him and thus he's another City prospect I'm out on for now.
Status: Sell
Andreas Weimann
Weimann has done really well when he's played and he actually rated atop the model projections for last week but I filtered him out due to the lack of sample size of his production. He's creating a lot of chances to supplement a healthy shot total, while his ratios have remained solid and consistent throughout his starts. With Bent close to a return and N'Zogbia/Agbonlahor also competing for finite time alongside Benteke, I'm a bit nervous about how often Weimann will play, but for 5.0m he's certainly worth a look and would make a nice third forward for those needing to free up cash to use elsewhere. The playing time risk might make me hesitate about using a transfer on him (for fear you'll need to sell again very soon) but if you're lucky enough to have the wildcard in hand, Weimann is a nice option to supplement your elite picks.
Status: Cautious buy in the right situation
Yaya Toure
The good news is that he's probably offering close to the same value as teammate Silva (with a slightly lower assist threat) but I'm not sure that's even enough to justify his price tag. Yaya seems to be used in an advanced role more sparingly this season and given City's upcoming games I just can't get excited about him anymore.
Status: Sell
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SCORE | MALAGA FC 2 PORTO 0
Historical night & result for Spanish Football Club Malaga FC after defeating Portuguese Club Porto 2 - 0 in the 2º leg Champions League game. The Spaniards managed to turn around an adverse 1 - 0 away result at Porto & win on aggregate 2- 1.Malaga FC will be in the last 8 European Clubs UEFA draw on Friday to know who will be their next opponents in the quarter-final phase of Champions League.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE | POSSIBLE STARTING 11 LINE-UPS MALAGA - PORTO
With all the excitement last night & the celebrations that another Spanish Football Club had qualified for the Champions League quarter-finals phase ( FC Barcelona ) most forget that tonight there is another great match scheduled. Spanish Football Club Malaga FC could join Real Madrid & FC Barcelona if they can turn around a 0 - 1 1º leg aggregate disadvantage at their home ground "La Rosaleda".
TOTTENHAM HOTSPURS WILL GO FOR REAL MADRID GONZALO HIGUAIN
English newspaper sources, in this case "The Guardian", write that English Premier League Club Tottenham Hotspurs has Real Madrid Argentine forward Gonzalo Higuian on their list of next season priority reinforcements. This is not new, as last season Tottemham was in apparent conversations with Real Madrid & the player with the latter deciding that he wished to give it another go at Madrid &
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
FC BARCELONA TEAM PHOTO 2013 | vs AC MILAN
Managed to get this picture from a contact. Its the FC BARCELONA Team photo of tonights 2º leg match against AC Milan in Champions League. This starting 11 will go into the history books along with other Barça sides that have turned around adverse conditions. Tonight Barça transformed an awkward 0 - 2 away loss to Milan into a 4 - 0 victory at home to take the tie with a 4 - 2 aggregate & thus
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RESULT | FC BARCELONA 4 AC MILAN 0
The turn around happened & in a big way as FC Barcelona defeated convincingly AC Milan to continue onto the quarter - final phase of the Champions League. The final score ( result ) was 4 - 0 to the Spanish Football Club that gave them the tie with a 4 - 2 aggregate in their favour.The Italians made the same mistake most Clubs make when they come to "Camp Nou", defend & speculate with
Monday, March 11, 2013
SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 27 MONDAY NIGHT GAME RESULT
The last scheduled match of Round 27 of Liga was played tonight with Real Zaragoza drawing 0 - 0 with Granada. Both are in deep trouble dangerous "living off" the relegation zone of the Spanish Football League classification table. This results does no good to either of the teams & both will be disappointed.
The game was a dead bore however with nothing really to say except a moment of
SFS FLASHBACKS | FC BARCELONA AC MILAN 2004 RONALDINHO WINNER
Here is a Spanish Football Sports Flashback, or should I say Champions League Flashback.Situation Oct - Nov 2004, FC Barcelona had lost at AC Milan 1 - 0 in the Champions League Group match at "San Siro". Two weeks later they met again at the "Camp Nou" in Barcelona. Shevchenko had scored for Milan in the 17th min & Eto´o drew in the 37th min for Barcelona. Then in the 88th min this happened:
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE | FC BARCELONA POSSIBLE STARTING 11 LINE-UP AGAINST AC MILAN
Spanish
Football observers are betting on Valdés, Alves, Puyol, Piqué, Jordi Alba, Busquets, Xavi,
Iniesta, Pedro & Messi. But Spanish Sports daily "Marca" add the
following statement...these are just 10 but who will be the 11th player to make up
the FC Barcelona starting 11 line-up against AC Milan this Tuesday in the 2º
leg of Champions League at "Camp Nou".
The media source observes that
Football observers are betting on Valdés, Alves, Puyol, Piqué, Jordi Alba, Busquets, Xavi,
Iniesta, Pedro & Messi. But Spanish Sports daily "Marca" add the
following statement...these are just 10 but who will be the 11th player to make up
the FC Barcelona starting 11 line-up against AC Milan this Tuesday in the 2º
leg of Champions League at "Camp Nou".
The media source observes that
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Lineup Lessons Gameweek 29
Aston Villa
Guzan, Lowton, Clark, Vlaar, Baker, Weimann, Bannan, Westwood, Sylla, Agbonlahor, Benteke
Subs: Given, N'Zogbia, Holman, Bowery, Dawkins, Bennett, Carruthers
After a couple of promising outings, N'Zogbia once again found himself back on the bench which only serves to underline that unless your squad is very deep, he's a luxury that can't really be afforded at this stage of the season, even if Villa have been better in the second half of the season. The rest of this team is fairly predictable with Sylla the only odd name here, though obviously not one to cause too many fantasy waves despite a promising first full game. Bent's miserable season continues, though he looks like he could be fit in the next week or so, which mind dent any meagre value offered by Weimann or Agbonlahor.
Liverpool
Jones, Johnson, Carragher, Agger, Jose Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Downing, Suarez, Coutinho, Sturridge
Subs: Gulacsi, Skrtel, Shelvey, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Wisdom
Fans of the teams out in front don't often don't want to hear it, but this Liverpool side are very much for real. For a while their production was severely straggling behind their underlying stats though aside from Suarez taking a few too many ill advised shots from long range, I never saw too many concrete reasons as to why this was the case. We can point to a number of factors as to what has changed in Liverpool's play, but Sturridge's arrival seems to have brought a lot of their good points together and since he made his first start in GW23, they have been simply unplayable, racking up 21 goals from 133 shots (42 on target) - a full eight goals clear of the next best teams (Arsenal and Newcastle). Now, that goal/SoT rate looks unsustainably high so some caution needs to be exercised here before pencilling this side in for another 20-24 goals this year, but when you consider their floor, ceiling and - chiefly - the predictability of where those goals might come from, this is an exciting side to target. We might see the midfield trio of Allen, Henderson and Sterling steal a few minutes here and there for the rest of the season but generally this side looks to be very settled and given the aforementioned factors, should be an important part of your considerations when setting up your team for the final push.
Newcastle
Elliot, Debuchy, S Taylor, Yanga-Mbiwa, Santon, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Sissoko, Gouffran, Cisse
Subs: Harper, Anita, Perch, Haidara, Marveaux, Obertan, Campbell
We've observed a significant amount of turnover in this side this year, though for the most part it has been caused by injury rather than manager rotation. Newcastle are still missing a couple of first teamers, with Ben Arfa apparently set to come back sooner rather than later, but otherwise this is likely your team for the remainder of the season. Where Ben Arfa fits in isn't too clear, but if you had to bet you might think it would be at the expense of Gouffran rather than Gutierrez, who's been virtually ever-present this year and brings a bit more of the defensive responsibility that his teammates lack. Sissoko has obviously caught the eye as a legit goal scoring threat since coming on the scene but Cabaye has also quietly racked up 18 shots over the last six games (though with 17 of them from outside the box, I'm not suggesting he's in the class of the some of his peers in that same total shot range).
Norwich
Bunn, Martin, Bassong, Turner, Garrido, Snodgrass, Johnson, Howson, Pilkington, Kamara, Holt
Subs: Camp, Whittaker, Hoolahan, Fox, E Bennett, Becchio, R Bennett
Norwich have added a bit of depth up front in Becchio and Kamara though neither have done too much to really spark our interest and time is probably running out for them to be impactful this year. Holt remains an option if you've been priced out of the Benteke/Berbatov/Lukaku market, though that trio offer substantially higher ceilings than the consistent, if underwhelming, Holt.
QPR
Green, Bosingwa, Samba, Hill, Da Silva, Townsend, Park, Mbia, Hoilett, Zamora, Remy
Subs: Murphy, Wright-Phillips, Mackie, Granero, Onuoha, Jenas, Bothroyd
QPR enjoy good depth on the bench here but Redknapp has shown some faith in the majority of his starters this past month, giving us a couple of players to at least look at. I like what I've seen of Remy and believe he's at least worth a look at 5.9m (preferring him to the aforementioned Holt if you're priced out of that 6.5-7.1m group). Saying that, his lack of volume of chances will always hurt his upside and QPR are always prone to simply throwing a blank out against the league's better sides, but without too many of those fixtures left, Remy might be an option if you need to save a bit of cash to free up space for a couple of the elite options with double gameweeks coming up. Outside of Taarabt's mirage-like stat line, the rest of this midfield hasn't shown us a great deal and thus it doesn't appear to offer much value, even at bargain prices.
Reading
Taylor, Kelly, Pearce, Mariappa, Harte, Robson-Kanu, Akpan, Leigertwood, McAnuff, Hunt, Le Fondre
Subs: Henly, Shorey, Karacan, McCleary, Morrison, Guthrie, Blackman
Le Fondre got his second straight start this week, perhaps signalling that Reading are ready to place an emphasis on scoring goals - an advanced concept that is taking the league by storm. Whether or not there's enough certainty here to warrant investment is still a tricky issue, but as noted above, the key driver for these coming weeks could well be the need to fill your team with elite double gameweekers, so the flexibility a 5.0m forward can offer your team is not to be ignored. The narrative for Robson-Kanu (Reading's 4th top scorer) is almost exactly the same as with Le Fondre, with the midfielder offering nice value in the lowest price bracket, if only given a modicum of consistent minutes. His six shots over the last couple of games place him 6th among midfielders, as do his three efforts on target, yet I wouldn't be too surprised to see one of the other dubious options restored next week, so caveat emptor is the name of the game here.
Southampton
Boruc, Yoshida, Fonte, Hooiveld, Shaw, Fox, Schneiderlin, Rodriguez, Ramirez, Lallana, Lambert
Subs: K Davis, Clyne, Forren, Ward-Prowse, Do Prado, Chaplow, Puncheon
It was a big surprise to see both Clyne and Puncheon benched, as - at least in my limited viewings of Southampton this year - that pair have been a couple of consistent bright spots. What to do with them now isn't clear, though my instinct would be that both will be back soon and thus panic moves are probably best avoided, particularly as their budget prices allow them to be benched without too many issues. The timing of them being benched when most fantasy squads were decimated by bye weeks was however frustrating to say the least.
Stoke
Begovic, Cameron, Shawcross, Wilson, Wilkinson, Shotton, Whelan, Nzonzi, Walters, Jerome, Crouch
Subs: Sorensen, Jones, Owen, Adam, Whitehead, Kightly, Shea
Wilson made his third start since returning from injury and my bet is that he will stay in the lineup at the expense of Wilkinson when Huth is back from suspension (though that one isn't set in stone). If that's the case he will represent excellent defensive value at just 3.9m. Not too much else going on here with the likes of Adam, Jones and Kightly still finding themselves on the outside looking in.
Sunderland
Mignolet, Gardner, Bramble, O'Shea, Colback, Sessegnon, Larsson, N'Diaye, Johnson, Fletcher, Graham
Subs: Westwood, Bardsley, Rose, Kilgallon, Vaughan, Mangane, Cuellar
No real issues to note here though with Bardsley, Rose and Cuellar all fit enough for the bench, we're likely to see some movement along the back line in the coming weeks. Sunderland haven't offered too much value at the back this year, though they've been playing midfielders at full back for essentially the whole season, so the return of this group would be a welcome boost. The fixtures don't offer up too many games where a clean sheet looks too likely though, so any enthusiasm for a quick turnaround should probably be tempered.
Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Davies, Hernandez, de Guzman, Ki, Routledge, Michu, Moore
Subs: Tremmel, Bartley, Dyer, Lamah, Shechter, Tiendalli, Gower
Nothing really to note here and it's another so-so performance from this once-darling Swansea side. I don't want to be down on this team, who have been very good at times this year, but over the last six gameweeks they rank just 14th in total shots, scoring just six times and there is a slight danger of this season petering out a little bit unless they can get back on track. In fantasy terms their current 'struggles' make me apprehensive about getting behind anyone other than Michu, though he himself should probably be somewhat questioned given Swansea's tough set of fixtures.
Tottenham
Lloris, Walker, Vertonghen, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto, Parker, Livermore, Bale, Dembele, Sigurdsson, Defoe
Subs: Friedel, Huddlestone, Gallas, Naughton, Holtby, Caulker, Carroll
With Adebayor and Lennon sidelined, Spurs didn't have too many options here, though I did think Holtby had shown enough to maybe get a start here. This is a useful Spurs team who can score against anyone, though it's still tough to see beyond Bale. The defense looks solid on paper, though with just two clean sheets in the last ten gameweeks, it's not easy to fit any of these options in here other than perhaps Dawson given his lower price tag (no, I don't believe Vertonghen's goal threat compensates for the extra 1.7m outlay).
West Brom
Foster, Jones, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell, Yacob, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Morrison, Brunt, Lukaku
Subs: Myhill, Tamas, Popov, Rosenberg, Thomas, Odemwingie, Fortune
Nothing much going on here either. I guess however that this is the point in the weekly post where I note that Lukaku now ranks 6th among all forwards in SiB, despite playing between 30-45% less minutes than most of his competitors. The penalty miss was a shame but the bigger issue remains Shane Long's return from injury which could once again cut into the Chelsea loanee's minutes.
Guzan, Lowton, Clark, Vlaar, Baker, Weimann, Bannan, Westwood, Sylla, Agbonlahor, Benteke
Subs: Given, N'Zogbia, Holman, Bowery, Dawkins, Bennett, Carruthers
After a couple of promising outings, N'Zogbia once again found himself back on the bench which only serves to underline that unless your squad is very deep, he's a luxury that can't really be afforded at this stage of the season, even if Villa have been better in the second half of the season. The rest of this team is fairly predictable with Sylla the only odd name here, though obviously not one to cause too many fantasy waves despite a promising first full game. Bent's miserable season continues, though he looks like he could be fit in the next week or so, which mind dent any meagre value offered by Weimann or Agbonlahor.
Liverpool
Jones, Johnson, Carragher, Agger, Jose Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Downing, Suarez, Coutinho, Sturridge
Subs: Gulacsi, Skrtel, Shelvey, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Wisdom
Fans of the teams out in front don't often don't want to hear it, but this Liverpool side are very much for real. For a while their production was severely straggling behind their underlying stats though aside from Suarez taking a few too many ill advised shots from long range, I never saw too many concrete reasons as to why this was the case. We can point to a number of factors as to what has changed in Liverpool's play, but Sturridge's arrival seems to have brought a lot of their good points together and since he made his first start in GW23, they have been simply unplayable, racking up 21 goals from 133 shots (42 on target) - a full eight goals clear of the next best teams (Arsenal and Newcastle). Now, that goal/SoT rate looks unsustainably high so some caution needs to be exercised here before pencilling this side in for another 20-24 goals this year, but when you consider their floor, ceiling and - chiefly - the predictability of where those goals might come from, this is an exciting side to target. We might see the midfield trio of Allen, Henderson and Sterling steal a few minutes here and there for the rest of the season but generally this side looks to be very settled and given the aforementioned factors, should be an important part of your considerations when setting up your team for the final push.
Newcastle
Elliot, Debuchy, S Taylor, Yanga-Mbiwa, Santon, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Sissoko, Gouffran, Cisse
Subs: Harper, Anita, Perch, Haidara, Marveaux, Obertan, Campbell
We've observed a significant amount of turnover in this side this year, though for the most part it has been caused by injury rather than manager rotation. Newcastle are still missing a couple of first teamers, with Ben Arfa apparently set to come back sooner rather than later, but otherwise this is likely your team for the remainder of the season. Where Ben Arfa fits in isn't too clear, but if you had to bet you might think it would be at the expense of Gouffran rather than Gutierrez, who's been virtually ever-present this year and brings a bit more of the defensive responsibility that his teammates lack. Sissoko has obviously caught the eye as a legit goal scoring threat since coming on the scene but Cabaye has also quietly racked up 18 shots over the last six games (though with 17 of them from outside the box, I'm not suggesting he's in the class of the some of his peers in that same total shot range).
Norwich
Bunn, Martin, Bassong, Turner, Garrido, Snodgrass, Johnson, Howson, Pilkington, Kamara, Holt
Subs: Camp, Whittaker, Hoolahan, Fox, E Bennett, Becchio, R Bennett
Norwich have added a bit of depth up front in Becchio and Kamara though neither have done too much to really spark our interest and time is probably running out for them to be impactful this year. Holt remains an option if you've been priced out of the Benteke/Berbatov/Lukaku market, though that trio offer substantially higher ceilings than the consistent, if underwhelming, Holt.
QPR
Green, Bosingwa, Samba, Hill, Da Silva, Townsend, Park, Mbia, Hoilett, Zamora, Remy
Subs: Murphy, Wright-Phillips, Mackie, Granero, Onuoha, Jenas, Bothroyd
QPR enjoy good depth on the bench here but Redknapp has shown some faith in the majority of his starters this past month, giving us a couple of players to at least look at. I like what I've seen of Remy and believe he's at least worth a look at 5.9m (preferring him to the aforementioned Holt if you're priced out of that 6.5-7.1m group). Saying that, his lack of volume of chances will always hurt his upside and QPR are always prone to simply throwing a blank out against the league's better sides, but without too many of those fixtures left, Remy might be an option if you need to save a bit of cash to free up space for a couple of the elite options with double gameweeks coming up. Outside of Taarabt's mirage-like stat line, the rest of this midfield hasn't shown us a great deal and thus it doesn't appear to offer much value, even at bargain prices.
Reading
Taylor, Kelly, Pearce, Mariappa, Harte, Robson-Kanu, Akpan, Leigertwood, McAnuff, Hunt, Le Fondre
Subs: Henly, Shorey, Karacan, McCleary, Morrison, Guthrie, Blackman
Le Fondre got his second straight start this week, perhaps signalling that Reading are ready to place an emphasis on scoring goals - an advanced concept that is taking the league by storm. Whether or not there's enough certainty here to warrant investment is still a tricky issue, but as noted above, the key driver for these coming weeks could well be the need to fill your team with elite double gameweekers, so the flexibility a 5.0m forward can offer your team is not to be ignored. The narrative for Robson-Kanu (Reading's 4th top scorer) is almost exactly the same as with Le Fondre, with the midfielder offering nice value in the lowest price bracket, if only given a modicum of consistent minutes. His six shots over the last couple of games place him 6th among midfielders, as do his three efforts on target, yet I wouldn't be too surprised to see one of the other dubious options restored next week, so caveat emptor is the name of the game here.
Southampton
Boruc, Yoshida, Fonte, Hooiveld, Shaw, Fox, Schneiderlin, Rodriguez, Ramirez, Lallana, Lambert
Subs: K Davis, Clyne, Forren, Ward-Prowse, Do Prado, Chaplow, Puncheon
It was a big surprise to see both Clyne and Puncheon benched, as - at least in my limited viewings of Southampton this year - that pair have been a couple of consistent bright spots. What to do with them now isn't clear, though my instinct would be that both will be back soon and thus panic moves are probably best avoided, particularly as their budget prices allow them to be benched without too many issues. The timing of them being benched when most fantasy squads were decimated by bye weeks was however frustrating to say the least.
Stoke
Begovic, Cameron, Shawcross, Wilson, Wilkinson, Shotton, Whelan, Nzonzi, Walters, Jerome, Crouch
Subs: Sorensen, Jones, Owen, Adam, Whitehead, Kightly, Shea
Wilson made his third start since returning from injury and my bet is that he will stay in the lineup at the expense of Wilkinson when Huth is back from suspension (though that one isn't set in stone). If that's the case he will represent excellent defensive value at just 3.9m. Not too much else going on here with the likes of Adam, Jones and Kightly still finding themselves on the outside looking in.
Sunderland
Mignolet, Gardner, Bramble, O'Shea, Colback, Sessegnon, Larsson, N'Diaye, Johnson, Fletcher, Graham
Subs: Westwood, Bardsley, Rose, Kilgallon, Vaughan, Mangane, Cuellar
No real issues to note here though with Bardsley, Rose and Cuellar all fit enough for the bench, we're likely to see some movement along the back line in the coming weeks. Sunderland haven't offered too much value at the back this year, though they've been playing midfielders at full back for essentially the whole season, so the return of this group would be a welcome boost. The fixtures don't offer up too many games where a clean sheet looks too likely though, so any enthusiasm for a quick turnaround should probably be tempered.
Swansea
Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Davies, Hernandez, de Guzman, Ki, Routledge, Michu, Moore
Subs: Tremmel, Bartley, Dyer, Lamah, Shechter, Tiendalli, Gower
Nothing really to note here and it's another so-so performance from this once-darling Swansea side. I don't want to be down on this team, who have been very good at times this year, but over the last six gameweeks they rank just 14th in total shots, scoring just six times and there is a slight danger of this season petering out a little bit unless they can get back on track. In fantasy terms their current 'struggles' make me apprehensive about getting behind anyone other than Michu, though he himself should probably be somewhat questioned given Swansea's tough set of fixtures.
Tottenham
Lloris, Walker, Vertonghen, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto, Parker, Livermore, Bale, Dembele, Sigurdsson, Defoe
Subs: Friedel, Huddlestone, Gallas, Naughton, Holtby, Caulker, Carroll
With Adebayor and Lennon sidelined, Spurs didn't have too many options here, though I did think Holtby had shown enough to maybe get a start here. This is a useful Spurs team who can score against anyone, though it's still tough to see beyond Bale. The defense looks solid on paper, though with just two clean sheets in the last ten gameweeks, it's not easy to fit any of these options in here other than perhaps Dawson given his lower price tag (no, I don't believe Vertonghen's goal threat compensates for the extra 1.7m outlay).
West Brom
Foster, Jones, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell, Yacob, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Morrison, Brunt, Lukaku
Subs: Myhill, Tamas, Popov, Rosenberg, Thomas, Odemwingie, Fortune
Nothing much going on here either. I guess however that this is the point in the weekly post where I note that Lukaku now ranks 6th among all forwards in SiB, despite playing between 30-45% less minutes than most of his competitors. The penalty miss was a shame but the bigger issue remains Shane Long's return from injury which could once again cut into the Chelsea loanee's minutes.
SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 27 SUNDAY MATCHES RESULTS
Spanish Football continued today with four matches scheduled of Round 27 of Liga. Following is a brief summary of match events, all the final results with all the goalscorers.
Athletic Club Bilbao hosted Valencia CF & managed a much needed 1 - 0 victory . Bilbao was lucky, Valencia missed goals that still now they must be thinking how they missed them on their trip back to Valencia,
Athletic Club Bilbao hosted Valencia CF & managed a much needed 1 - 0 victory . Bilbao was lucky, Valencia missed goals that still now they must be thinking how they missed them on their trip back to Valencia,
ATLETICO DE MADRID FOLLOWING ANDRE CARRILLO OF SPORTING LISBON
Sporting Lisbon Peruvian winger-striker Andre Carrillo has been observed the past weeks by Spanish Football Club Atletico de Madrid. The 21 year old has pace & excellent ball control which calls the attention at Atletico.
The news breaks out of his homeland media & also comes from his representative Elio Casareto who confirmed the "spying". The representative adds that they know of the Atletico
The news breaks out of his homeland media & also comes from his representative Elio Casareto who confirmed the "spying". The representative adds that they know of the Atletico
REAL MADRID PREPARING A 130M€ PACKAGE FOR GARETH BALE ?
I "threatened" to again post about Tottenham Hotspurs Welsh International Gareth Bale. Every week we receive locally more news & speculations concerning the young player & his possible immediate future.According to English paper "Mirror" which has been picked up locally, Spanish Football giant Real Madrid is preparing a 130M€ package to offer player & Club to get Bale over for next season.
LIONEL MESSI | ANOTHER WORLD FOOTBALL RECORD
Last night FC Barcelona Argentine star Lionel Messi was
called into action in the second half of the teams match against Deportivo A
Coruña of “Liga” to put some spark into the Barça game. Leading 1 – 0 with an
earlier goal from team-mate Alexis, Barcelona
was struggling to “knock-out” Deportivo who was putting up a admirable fight.
Lionel Messi had to once again “rescue” his side late in the
called into action in the second half of the teams match against Deportivo A
Coruña of “Liga” to put some spark into the Barça game. Leading 1 – 0 with an
earlier goal from team-mate Alexis, Barcelona
was struggling to “knock-out” Deportivo who was putting up a admirable fight.
Lionel Messi had to once again “rescue” his side late in the
Saturday, March 9, 2013
SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 27 SATURDAY RESULTS
Spanish Football action today with games played in Round 27 of La Liga. Here is a brief summary of events, final results & the goalscorers.
Real Betis played on Friday night their wet-trenched match against Osasuna to win 2 - 1. Intense encounter under difficult climatic conditions Betis got ahead first with a Molina goal in the 19th min. Osasuna reacted & in doing so missed various chances
Real Betis played on Friday night their wet-trenched match against Osasuna to win 2 - 1. Intense encounter under difficult climatic conditions Betis got ahead first with a Molina goal in the 19th min. Osasuna reacted & in doing so missed various chances
COULD FERNANDO TORRES RETURN TO ATLETICO DE MADRID ?
Spanish International & Chelsea FC forward Fernando Torres is simply not playing up to the expectations that motivated Chelsea owner Abramovich to put up 57M€ on January 2011 to sign from Liverpool FC. According to the English Press - "Express" - the Premier League Club is willing to listen to offers & sell the Spanish Football Player at a loss if needed. The price could be as low as 17M€
FC BARCELONA HAS 90 % NEYMAR | WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER 10 %
The smoke signals & messages have lifted a few levels in the last 10 days in reference to Brazilian Football Star & Santos player Neymar. Everything indicates that the youngster will be landing in European Football soon. What is unknown is when but the Club sounding more & moreis FC Barcelona, although others have tried & some still are wishing.
While the player himself has said the if a move to
While the player himself has said the if a move to
Friday, March 8, 2013
SFS FLASHBACKS | 1992 SPANISH CUP FINAL VIDEO
Today the venue & date of the Spanish Cup ( Copa del Rey ) Final between Real Madrid & Atletico de Madrid was announced: Friday 17 th of May, city of Madrid at the "Santiago Bernabeu".
This is a good reason to post a Spanish Football Sports Flashback to remember & watch on video the last time Real Madrid & Atletico de Madrid played a Spanish Cup Final at the same Satdium back in 1992.
In that
This is a good reason to post a Spanish Football Sports Flashback to remember & watch on video the last time Real Madrid & Atletico de Madrid played a Spanish Cup Final at the same Satdium back in 1992.
In that
Gameweek 29 Preview, or, while my fantasy team gently weeps
Look guys, it's going to be carnage this week. I would genuinely take 20 points if offered right now, but given the lack of great options available, I don't believe it's a situation where splashing out on four points is going to really help. Even if you have a wildcard, selling out for this week is likely a bad idea as you don't want to be setup with no players from teams like Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal. In short then, just try and minimise your losses and target selling players who have an off week and whose future prospects you aren't crazy about (Everton players spring to mind here given their upcoming fixtures).
To address a point that will almost certainly come up if anyone links to this page, you'll notice that the all conquering Gareth Bale finds himself well down the rankings despite all the talent missing this week. I understand that this goes against your gut, but please remember that this model is based on statistical averages and is not supposed to simply make every decision for us. If you believe Bale is better than his underlying stats and can unlock a Liverpool defense who have generally been outstanding at home, then feel free to captain him, but until I see something concrete to suggest he can outperform all the facts, I'm happy holding him down a couple of places this week (any suggestions of why he can out shoot that averages are welcomed in the comments section).
Good luck, it's going to be a rough week
Clean sheet rankings
Attacking rankings
Individual rankings
To address a point that will almost certainly come up if anyone links to this page, you'll notice that the all conquering Gareth Bale finds himself well down the rankings despite all the talent missing this week. I understand that this goes against your gut, but please remember that this model is based on statistical averages and is not supposed to simply make every decision for us. If you believe Bale is better than his underlying stats and can unlock a Liverpool defense who have generally been outstanding at home, then feel free to captain him, but until I see something concrete to suggest he can outperform all the facts, I'm happy holding him down a couple of places this week (any suggestions of why he can out shoot that averages are welcomed in the comments section).
Good luck, it's going to be a rough week
Clean sheet rankings
SPANISH CUP | COPA DEL REY FINAL - 17 MAY 21.30 SANTIAGO BERNABEU
The Spanish Football Federation has announced & made official the date & stadium of the 2013 Spanish Cup ( Copa del Rey ) Final. It will be Friday 17th of May at 21.30 at the "Santiago Bernabeu Stadium".
Both Real Madrid CF & Atletico de Madrid had to give in with their desires. Real Madrid wanted to celebrate the Final at the "Camp Nou Stadium (Barcelona) or at (Mestalla) Valencia . Real
Both Real Madrid CF & Atletico de Madrid had to give in with their desires. Real Madrid wanted to celebrate the Final at the "Camp Nou Stadium (Barcelona) or at (Mestalla) Valencia . Real
Thursday, March 7, 2013
EUROPA LEAGUE RESULT | LEVANTE 0 RUBIN KAZAN 0
The last Spanish Football representative in the Europa League competition Levente hosted the team that knocked out Atletico de Madrid, Russian Club Rubin Kazan. The match ended in a 0 - 0 draw after an intense match that had its best & most emotional moments in the 2º half , especially the last 30 minutes.
Basically even for both teams when in the 52 nd min Kazan player Ansaldi received a red
Basically even for both teams when in the 52 nd min Kazan player Ansaldi received a red
FC BARCELONA | TOP DEFENSIVE PRIORITY LIVERPOOL AGGER ?
News from
Spanish Football & Sports daily "AS" announces that FC Barcelona has Liverpool
FC defender Daniel Agger as its top priority signing for the defensive line for
next season. Barça wishes to "organically" find a young & top class defender to
replace the veteran 34 year old Carles Puyol.
The
Barcelona Captain also falls injured more often these past two seasons as he "gets on" & the
Spanish Football & Sports daily "AS" announces that FC Barcelona has Liverpool
FC defender Daniel Agger as its top priority signing for the defensive line for
next season. Barça wishes to "organically" find a young & top class defender to
replace the veteran 34 year old Carles Puyol.
The
Barcelona Captain also falls injured more often these past two seasons as he "gets on" & the
REAL MADRID | WILL IKER CASILLAS REGAIN HIS GOALKEEPING PLACE ?
Diego Lopez
is the current goalkeeper of Real Madrid CF. Born & raised in the "White
House" the keeper had to find our pastures to gaze ( ...Villareal, Malaga
FC ) in order to practice his profession. One of the reasons for his departure is due to the man that he
is now replacing Iker Casillas, Spanish National Team & Real
Madrid Captain.
The hand injury to the latter which required surgery
is the current goalkeeper of Real Madrid CF. Born & raised in the "White
House" the keeper had to find our pastures to gaze ( ...Villareal, Malaga
FC ) in order to practice his profession. One of the reasons for his departure is due to the man that he
is now replacing Iker Casillas, Spanish National Team & Real
Madrid Captain.
The hand injury to the latter which required surgery
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
ATLETICO DE MADRID | COURTOIS & PLAN B
Young Belgium goalkeeper Courtois has already won a place in the hearts of many Atletico de Madrid followers. The player is considered by everyone as a vital piece of the team & one cannot contemplate the future of Atletico without the goalkeeper. But the future of Courtois belongs to Chelsea FC the team that has his contract & has allowed to be on loan with the Spanish Football Club.
Courtois
Courtois
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE | PSG 1 VALENCIA 1
Spanish Football Club Valencia CF travelled to Paris to attempt to turn around a 1 - 2 aggregate result from the 1º st leg against Paris St Germain in the UEFA Champions League. The final result of the 2 nd leg was a 1 - 1 draw which eliminates Valencia with a 3 - 2 aggregate in PSG favour.
Valencia CF put in a top match & leaves with their heads high as they made PSG nervous most of the
Valencia CF put in a top match & leaves with their heads high as they made PSG nervous most of the
FC BARCELONA ANNOUNCE PRE-SEASON ASIAN DATES
Great news I would imagine for all the Asian readers of Spanish Football Sport with the announcement by FC Barcelona that they will visit the Asian region in the pre-season. The month of August will have installed three friendly matches to delight the Asian Barça followers:
China ( 3 rd of August )
Thailand ( 7 th of August )
Malaysia ( 10 th of August )
The teams that they will play against
China ( 3 rd of August )
Thailand ( 7 th of August )
Malaysia ( 10 th of August )
The teams that they will play against
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
PRE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE MATCH PSG - VALENCIA CF POSSIBLE STARTING 11 LINE-UPS
There is more UEFA Champions League tonight. Yesterdays colossal clash of Titans between Man Utd & Real Madrid perhaps made us forget it. Top game lined up as well as Spanish Football Club Valencia CF travel over to Paris St Germain to attempt a "small miracle".The Spaniards suffered a defeat at home 1 - 2 in the 1º leg of the home game & are behind the eight ball. Valencia have been vibing
What's happening in Salford?
Regular readers will know that one of the key drivers behind my team goal model (which ultimately backs up a lot of the individual player data too) is based on shot totals, split between those inside and outside the box. I like shots on target too, of course, but the reason I have opted for total shots in the model is for fear that over a short period, shots on target can be a bit misleading for individual players as, just as we wouldn't expect a player to score every time he hits the target, we equally wouldn't expect him to actually hit the target every time either.
With that in mind, I want to draw your attention to some interesting shot data from this and last year and open up the floor to suggestions as to (a) what is going on and (b) how we should deal with it next year. You'll notice that a lot of the posts for these remaining few weeks are going to be a bit more 'blue sky' than normal, mainly because there's only so many times you can write up the same lineup lessons are suggest that Michu is due for regression.
To start then, let's look at some likely familiar charts from prior year, first showing the strong relationship between created chances and shots inside the box and then between shots inside the box and goals:
The first chart actually shows a slightly stronger correlation than expected as I thought it was reasonable for teams to rack up 'created chances' without necessarily registering a good shot on goal. Anyway, that strength of relationship suggests created chances should probably feature more heavily in the next model as a way of normalizing SiB. The second chart plots SiB against goals and shows a slightly weaker relationship that I had in mind but an r-squared of 0.72 suggests there's enough here to still rely on. The variance between expected and actual goals per this trend line were as below:
The relationship is far from concrete but generally it looks like the better teams were out shooting the expected goals while the poorer teams struggled to meet expectations (Blackburn and to a degree Liverpool were the key exceptions there. In short though, there's a decent relationship here with a couple of exceptions to keep in mind. Let's move onto this year then:
So far, so good as once again we see a strong relationship between chances created and total goals. This again suggests that the better teams who enjoy good possession in dangerous areas and/or threaten from deep balls into the box are getting more SiB and thus goals. The tricky point comes with the next chart though:
What on earth is happening with Man Utd here (the title of this post was a little dig at United's location in the North West for those outside of the UK)? Again, let's look at the variance from the line of best fit:
Once again United are the largest outlier and the only team who have really shown any consistency to over or under perform the SiB forecast goals over the two seasons (Villa's underperformance looks like the next closest match).
This is the point where the analysis ends and the speculation begins. We can all think of subjective reasons why this is the case for United, but are any of them backed up by stats:
With that in mind, I want to draw your attention to some interesting shot data from this and last year and open up the floor to suggestions as to (a) what is going on and (b) how we should deal with it next year. You'll notice that a lot of the posts for these remaining few weeks are going to be a bit more 'blue sky' than normal, mainly because there's only so many times you can write up the same lineup lessons are suggest that Michu is due for regression.
To start then, let's look at some likely familiar charts from prior year, first showing the strong relationship between created chances and shots inside the box and then between shots inside the box and goals:
This is the point where the analysis ends and the speculation begins. We can all think of subjective reasons why this is the case for United, but are any of them backed up by stats:
- They have the best forwards, who are the most clinical and thus convert equally promising shots as other teams but at a higher rate
- They create better chances than other teams which are thus easier to convert
- They've simply enjoyed a couple of seasons where they've out scored their underlying stats and thus could regress
- Something else
With almost two full seasons of data I think we're at a point where it's unlikely that United are simply getting lucky but I haven't been able to locate anything in the data to concretely prove, and the predict what in their game makes them so much more efficient with their chances. Once again, I throw the question out to the readers to see what we can come up with.
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