HAVE A HAPPY 2014

Quiet day on the Spanish Football news front & most people with their minds on tonights end of year celebrations.

Would like to take the occasion in wishing all the Spanish Football Sports Blog readers a "Happy New Year & a Great 2014". Thanks for all the support during 2013 & will try to keep the standards up for you during 2014. See you back in a couple of days!

FC BARCELONA TELLO MAY GO TO LIVERPOOL FC ON LOAN

The news comes out of Spanish Sports paper "Marca" & places FC Barcelona & Spanish International Winger Cristian Tello in Liverpool FC. The operation would be put of the "Winter Market Transfer" window that opens up the 1st of January 2014 & it would be a loan.




Months back Cristian Tello made some very public announcements that if he could not get regular playing time at Barça that perhaps he

ARGENTINE JOSE SOSA CLOSE TO ATLETICO DE MADRID | ON LOAN

As we get closer to the "Winter Transfer Market" - starts the 1st of January 2014 - speculations & rumours increase & also help sell more Sports papers. Some rumours are false, invented, interested or just published to boost sales, however others are real, in motion & very possible, although in Football nothing is 100% until both parties sign the dotted line. 

Spanish Football Club Atletico de

ESPANYOL WINS FINAL 3 - 2 REAL MADRID | XVII INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL 7 U-12 CHAMPIONSHIP

Spanish Football Club RCD Espanyol defeated Real Madrid 3 - 2 in the Final of the XVII International Football 7 aside U- 12 Tournament being held in Arona ( Tenerife, Canary Islands; Spain). The youngsters aged between 11 & 12 years of age gave a great spectacle of Football which went right down to the last second as Espanyol avoided Real Madrid equalizing & forcing extra-time.Espanyol put in a

SPANISH FOOTBALL YOUNG FUTURE PROMISES | PEDRO - KANGIN LEE

Every year around this time in Christmas a very special U-12 Football 7 a side tournament takes place in Spain, concretely in Arona, Island of Tenerife ( Canary Is ). Out of here have came Spanish & World Football stars like Andres Iniesta, Fernando Torres, Gerard Pique ...just to mention three & this XVXII European Futbol 7 edition is highlighting some unique future talent.Teams from all around

TALKS ACCELERATE BETWEEN REAL MADRID & GUNDOGAN OF BORUSSIA DORTMUND

While midfielder & Spanish International Xabi Alonso keeps in limbo his Club Real Madrid while he decides to renew or not his contract, the Spanish Football Club moves its piece just in case they need to find a substitute.

All speculation points at German International & Borussia Dortmund player Gundogan as the Real Madrid target & the Xabi Alonso replacement if the latter decides to leave.

SPANISH FOOTBALL CURRENT LEADING GOALSCORER - GOALKEEPER AFTER ROUND 17

While Spanish Football & La Liga takes its Christmas Break thought it would a good moment to update the leading Spanish Liga Goalscorer ( El Pichichi ) & Goalkeeper ( El Zamora ) after Round 17. In both cases we have Atletico de Madrid players leading the classifications which reflects perfectly how the Club is performing in Liga this season which is currently sharing top spot of the Liga ladder

LA GAZZETTA DELLO SPORT LEAVES OUT MESSI & SPANIARDS FROM "BEST XI 2013"

The below post highlights the "Best Ideal XI Team for 2013" by the French Sports paper "L´Equipe". This post is the "Best XI Team for 2013" by Italian Sports paper "La Gazzetta dello Sports". If the French left out Sergio Ramos, the Italians left out FC Barcelona player Lionel Messi. And while the French at least included a Spaniard in FC Barcelona defender Jordi Alba, the Italian list has no

L´EQUIPE IDEAL 2013 TEAM WITH JORDI ALBA AS ONLY SPANIARD

Hi guys, SFS is back after a few days off with the family. I hope you had a great Christmas & have received lots of presents.

On the bus back home got to read that the French Sports paper "L´Equipe" has published their Best XI of the Year 2013. The surprise, but deserved, is the inclusion of left back defender Jordi Alba of FC Barcelona. Alba is the only Spaniard included in the list, the others

SPANISH FOOTBALL | MERRY CHRISTMAS

Taking a few days off with the family. To all the readers & everyone a Merry Christmas & thank you for all your support!

SPANISH FOOTBALL - LIGA - ROUND 17 SUNDAY GAMES RESULTS

The last 5 matches of Spanish Football Liga Round 17 were played today before the competition goes into its Christmas Break. Plenty of action with the following final results - scores & all the goalscorers.




RCD Espanyol played at noon & managed some needed 3 points with a deserved 4 - 2 win over bottom placed side Valladolid. Entertaining match with Espanyol dominating except the final 15

XABI ALONSO SPECULATED TO LEAVE REAL MADRID

Real Madrid is currently on alert & anxious to know the final decision of their midfielder Xabi Alonso. The player ends contract on June 30th of 2014 & Alonso has still to announce if he will renew or not his contract with the Club. The player will become a "free agent" as of the 1st of January 2014 allowing him to negotiate with any Club he wishes & can leave Real Madrid for free. 



These

SPANISH FOOTBALL - LIGA - ROUND 17 SATURDAY GAMES FINAL RESULTS

Spanish Football action tonight with Round 17 Liga games scheduled. One game was played last night & 4 matched were down tonight with the following final results-scores & all the goalscorers.





Friday night kicked off Round 17 of Liga with a match that saw Elche lose 0 - 1 to Malaga FC. The winner came early from Malaga midfielder Camacho in the 6th min. Elche dominated the ball but was

TOP PAID FOOTBALL - SOCCER COACHES MANAGERS IN WORLD FOOTBALL

A Brazilian Consultancy "Pluri" has released the list of top World Football - Soccer Coaches ( Managers ) & their salary before taxes ( that is, Gross ). Spanish Coach Josep Guardiola currently training German Club Bayern Munich is the highest paid Coach in the World with 17.000.000€. The second placed Coach is Chelsea FC Manager Jose Mourinho with 10.030.000€. Another Spanish Coach on the list &

SPANISH CUP - COPA DEL REY - THURSDAY GAMES FINAL RESULTS

The last remaining  2º leg Spanish Cup - Copa de Rey - games were played tonight with the following final results-scores & all the goalscorers from the 4 matches.




Valencia CF with new "intern" Coach Nico Estevez managed to win 1 - 0 Gimnastic & qualify the Club with a 1- 0 aggregate into the next stage of the Spanish Cup. The winner came in the 37th min from Alcacer. The victory was worked &

SPAIN Nº 1 FOOTBALL - SOCCER NATION | SIXTH YEAR IN A ROW | FIFA RANKING

FIFA has released today its monthly World Rankings for December with Spain Nº1. The Spanish Football National Team finishes the year as the "Best Football Nation" & it is the 6th consecutive year that Spain finishes in the Nº1 position.Incredible statistics & achievement which includes back to back European Nations Titles ( 2008 & 2012 ) & the 2010 FIFA World Champions Title. Now the big

MANCHESTER CITY - ARSENAL FC SOUND OUT IKER CASILLAS

News locally & from overseas is mounting speculating about the future of Spanish International & Real Madrid goalkeeper Iker Casillas. The situation of the player with his Club is that the "regular" goalkeeper for Real Madrid is Diego Lopez who has been chosen by Coach Ancelotti to be the starting keeper in Spanish Liga. Iker Casillas has been given the keeper role in Champions League & the

Gameweek 17 Preview

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SPANISH CUP - COPA DEL REY - WEDNESDAY MATCHES FINAL RESULTS

Spanish Cup - Copa del Rey - 2º leg return games action tonight with 6 encounters scheduled. Following is a brief summary of events, with all the final results-scores along with all the goalscorers.




Atletico de Madrid hosted San Andreu to win 2 - 1 & take tie to a 6 - 1 aggregate to qualify for the next stage of the Copa del Rey. San Andreu gave some initial fight & action that earned them

SPAIN FEMALE NATIONAL TEAM | 15TH IN FIFA RANKING

Football is a relatively a male dominated Sport in the majority of cases, & more so in Spain. The Spanish Male National Football Team is the current European & FIFA World Champions & take all the spotlight. However, there is Female Spanish National Football Team which is doing well & deserves much more media coverage & attention.Thought that I would post up the great news that our Female

The Aguero Problem

Given the number of transfers already made (290k at the time of writing), this post is potentially too late, but for those Aguero owners who haven't yet pulled the trigger on a replacement, here are a few factors to consider before you do.

The Argentinian's absence seems to be being pegged anywhere between four and six weeks, which means he will almost certainly miss gameweeks 17-21 and his absence could potentially extend through GW22 or even 23 (with good squad depth City should be mindful not to push their talisman and risk further injury as seems to have been the case with Kompany in the past). With his return therefore scheduled to coincide with the middle of the second wildcard window, the cost to buy Aguero back should essentially be ignored and value for money for right now is a factor. This contradicts the situation if he was missing for just a week or two, in which case it might be worth eating his cost to sit on the bench rather than lose 0.5m when you are forced to buy him back in two weeks.

So if we accept that value is a consideration, the assumption that Rooney is the best (or only if you read some sources) option looks arguable (that's assuming, of course, you already own Suarez. If you don't, you should probably just stop reading and go grab the Liverpool front man).

Team Forecast
If we look at the team forecast for the next six weeks, Aguero's absence become an even bigger blow as the model loves City compared with everyone else in the league.

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One can argue, perhaps, that their fortunes will take a hit without Aguero, though in Negredo (and possibly Dzeko) they have a ready made replacement so it's reasonable to conclude that they'd still place atop these rankings even if we could eliminate Aguero's impact. Though Rooney may personally have being playing better of late, the model is terrified of United's prospects and is pretty suspicious of a turnaround, aside from the promising returns for the next three easier games. Based on their team's prospects (which are probably more reliable than individual forecasts as they're predicated on larger shot samples), Negredo looks like the best play here, followed by Suarez, Giroud and then Rooney or Lukaku.

Individual Forecast

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Ok, so if you don't have Luis Suarez, seriously, stop reading and go and buy him . . . now. It's okay, we'll wait for you. Ready? Right, assuming you already have Suarez locked down, and most likely paired with someone else on this list, what now? Though not a necessity, it's always nice when the model backs up your own instinct based on watching games, and that's the case here as the next four options are those who likely sprung to everyone's mind when Aguero went down. The model doesn't see a great deal between this foursome (Giroud, Lukaku, Negredo and Rooney) and the only comment I'll add here is that if Giroud is the man you target, you may as well go with someone else for this week given his tricky fixture (CHE) and then bring him in for GW18. Also, one small factor is the captain's armband, and we can see that based purely on the data above, Lukaku is the only man who would be captained twice (GW18 SUN and GW21 NOR) over Suarez. Not a major point, but a point to consider in a close contest like this.

Cost
As we said above, given Aguero's expected length of absence, cost should be a factor. Of the four names noted above, Rooney costs between a 1.9-2.7m premium; money that could be used elsewhere to take advantage of other promising players. Those mouth watering numbers for City shown above coincide nicely with Silva's return to the side, for example, and he should be at the forefront of your plans as a high upside differentiator. Pairing the Spaniard with his teammate Negredo would given you an average expected points haul of 13.5 points per week between them, a total that simply cannot be matched by pairing Rooney with anyone available for 1.9m less than Silva (Ramsey would be the best bet at 1.6m less with an 11 point per week average). Granted, that Silva forecast is based on a small sample so I wouldn't necessarily want to hang my hat on it, but the point is, 1.9m-2.7m is a serious premium that can be used elsewhere in your team.

Ownership
Suarez 46%
Lukaku 32%
Giroud 28%
Rooney 19%
Remy 15%
Benteke 10%
Lambert 10%
Negredo 9%

The latter three names enjoy an advantage here, though only Negredo has the data and upside to really come close to filling Aguero's shoes. The gap to Rooney isn't huge, and some of the Englishman's owners will be dead teams who picked him months ago, though it still represents an advantage that is becoming increasingly hard to find (that of being a "differentiator" if you can call a 9% owned player that).

Conclusion
This isn't an easy question though in some ways it's a welcome one, as while Aguero was playing out of his mind, virtually every contending team owned him so all he really did was make everyone compete with ~92m or so and inflate our collective weekly scores. With Rooney and Negredo looking like the favoured replacements at least we're seeing some element of distinguishing between our teams. As for what the ultimate answer is, I'd suggest that the one based in 2013-14 data is Lukaku, or Negredo if you want an element of differentiation (which I would personally endorse). Could Rooney outperform them both? Sure. But that proposition is based on elements that this blog doesn't really deal with, like achievements from prior years or the ever mythical "form". The way I see it, you have a player who's fantasy points have increased thanks to five goals in the last six weeks, but also one who's production looks unsustainable based on his shot totals over that period (based on his 23 shots, we'd expect 9 to hit the target and 3 to hit the net).

Negredo's data isn't spectacular either, and he too has benefited from a favourable G/SoT rate (6 goals / 11 SoT), but he also finds himself in a team whose attacking fortunes look much brighter, comes at a 1.9m discount and offers an increasingly valuable differentiation factor. Given that it looks like everyone will be captaining Suarez with a regularity harping back to the days of Ronaldo, I'd suggest you can take a risk with someone like Negredo over Rooney, especially if that could open the door for you to also bring in someone like Silva. In fact, that final factor may be the deciding piece of the puzzle and could finally offer an alternative to those wanting to go another way than Ramsey whose own 62% ownership has become an issue.

If in a position of strength, one can also make a good case for Lukaku who falls in the middle of most of the above considerations, though his high ownership rate suggests that many of you (including your humble blogger) already have the Everton man locked down. If that doesn't apply to you then the Belgian can offer increased stability and Premier League pedigree over Negredo, but comes with a lower ceiling and doesn't do much to really set you team apart.

SPANISH CUP FINAL RESULTS OF TONIGHTS 2º LEG RETURN GAMES

Spanish Cup - Copa de Rey -  2º leg return matches tonight with 6 matches scheduled, with 6 games scheduled for tomorrow & the remaining on Thursday. Here are all the final results-scores, goalscorers & the Clubs knocked out.




Osasuna drew with Malaga FC 1- 1 in the 2º leg return game. The 1º st leg was another draw 3 - 3 result which gives the tie to Osasuna ( 4-4 agg, away goals ) & knocks

TOP 10 PLAYERS SHOWN RED CARDS IN SPANISH FOOTBALL - LIGA - HISTORY

Last week Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos was sent off with a Red Card, again. The media has been giving the Spanish International "heaps" with headlines that announce that its his 18th Red Card in his career.For those who read these headlines one may be lead to think that Ramos is a "hardman" of Spanish Football, a rough & tough bloke that "eats up forwards & midfielders".  Just to clarify the

VALENCIA CF SACKS ITS COACH DJUKIC

It was sensed last night that something would occur at Valencia CF after Atletico de Madrid gave them a Football lesson winning 3-0, a scoreline that could have been greater had Diego Costa not missed his penalty & Atletico converted their numerous occasions.The aftermath is the sacking by Valencia of its Coach Djukic, being temporarily substituted by Valencia B Coach Nico Estevez. 



The

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL 16 CLUB DRAW | REAL MADRID - FC BARCELONA - AT MADRID

The draw for the match ups of the last 16 Clubs left in the 2013-2014 UEFA Champions League tournament has been celebrated today with the following results for the three Spanish Football Clubs: Real Madrid, Atletico de Madrid & FC Barcelona.



courtesy of Marca

The 1º st leg matches are scheduled for the 18th/19th & 25th/26th of Febuary with the 2º leg games scheduled for the 11th /12th & 18th/

SPANISH FOOTBALL - LIGA - ROUND 16 SUNDAY GAMES FINAL RESULTS

Spanish Football & Liga continued today with four matches of Round 16. Here are all the final results-scores along with all the goalscorers.




Almeria & RCD Espanyol played out a "boring" 0 - 0 draw. Perhaps both sides were more tense than usual working in order to avoid losing points & preferred not to risk. Very tactical & disciplined from both teams which cancelled out the creative elements

SPANISH FOOTBALL - LIGA - FINAL RESULTS ROUND 16 SATURDAY GAMES

Spanish Football action with Liga back running with Round 16 games. One match was played last night & four encounters today with the final results-scores along with all goalscorers all detailed below.




Levante hosted Elche on Friday night & won 2 - 1 with the home side making a comeback. The opening goal came from the visiting Club which scored in the 28th min with a goal from Sapunara.

Going streaking

Whether you're lucky enough to still have your original wildcard stashed away in your back pocket or not, as we approach the second wildcard window, it's worthwhile putting together a transfer plan to best exploit the fixtures on offer. We have at least four transfers before then (GW16-19) followed by the important period right after we play the wildcard, so with that in mind, let's try and identify a few fixture streaks during which we might want to target specific players.

For simplicity I've only looked at streaks of four gameweeks here. In reality we might want to dig deeper into streaks where you like three out of four games, or four out of six, but this is the starting point, for better or worse. Double gameweeks will also likely cause chaos at some point too, but without knowing where or when they'll strike, their impact is ignored for now.

The below table shows the expected goal total over the four highlighted games above or (below) the team average. So a score of -1.5 suggests that the model believes Arsenal will score 1.5 less goals over those four games than their average GPG to date would suggest (that GPG is based on actual goals scored/conceded, not regressed or expected goals).

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I'm going to keep the analysis brief as this data really speaks for itself, but there are a few comments to make on a couple of these streaks.

Arsenal and Liverpool have been firm favourites of fantasy managers to date, yet appear to be risky investments in the immediate future based on the above (more on Arsenal in the longer term below). Both face three away games in the next four, including trips to the likes of the Etihad, Stamford Bridge and White Hart Lane. Does this mean you should be targeting Suarez and Ramsey for sale? Probably not, as they still do very well in the weekly rankings, but the lesser players from those sides should be considered expendable, particularly on the defensive end of the pitch.

Sunderland look like they enjoy incredibly easy fixtures as they're forecast to well exceed their goals scored and conceded tallies to date. However, this is more a product of the model thinking they've been somewhat unfortunate to date rather than the fixtures being unbelievably favourable. Saying that, over the next eight gameweeks they do get a number of promising fixtures (NOR, @CAR, AVL, @FUL, SOU, STK) so players such as Giaccherini or Johnson could make useful 4th midfielder types in paired with the right complementary piece.

The model loves Arsenal after GW19, and well it might given their fixture list of @NEW, CAR, @AVL, FUL, @SOU and CRY. This is one situation when careful planning is required, as to potentially get a 1.5 goal bonus on top of the excellent form this team has already shown suggests we should really be trying to squeeze an extra Gunner in our team for this period (the start of that period nicely coincides with the opening of the transfer window so they should be a hot commodity for wildcarding teams).

Another team whose assets you will want to maximise coming out of the transfer window is Man City. They get CRY, @SWA, @NEW and CAR from GW19 - 22, a period of fixtures that suggests we should try and squeeze at least one more attacking player into our sides alongside the presumably ever present Aguero. It isn't always easy to identify such players in this changeable City side, so here's hoping we're seeing some vintage David Silva play by the time Santa delivers that appetising run of games.

West Brom are a massively underrated defensive side with ownership numbers of 3.0% or less across the whole back five. Granted, the results of late have taken a turn for the worse (no clean sheets in the last five games) but they still boast excellent +/- scores of -19% at home and away and have four teams on deck who are all struggling for goals right now (@CAR, HUL, @TOT, @WHU).

CARLO ANCELOTTI FINDS "HIS TEAM" | REAL MADRID

The theory indicates,  fill your Football squad with World Class Stars & you're bound to win. However, the model leaves out the "team factor" from the equation & it takes the big spending Clubs time to realise that in practice the reality is that your need to build a TEAM in order to win. Money & stars are not the final answer, obvious but we see it every season. 

This has been the case with

CRISTIANO RONALDO WINS WORLD SOCCER BEST PLAYER AWARD 2013

The prestigious Football Magazine, "World Soccer" has released its list of "Best Football Player 2013", "Best Coach 2013" & "Best Football - Soccer Club 2013". The voting comes in from all their journalists around the World & gives the  Real Madrid & Portuguese International Cristiano Ronaldo the Award as the "Best Football Player of 2013" ahead of FC Barcelona player Lionel Messi & Bayern Munich

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL RESULTS FOR ATLETICO DE MADRID - FC BARCELONA

UEFA Champions League Football tonight with the last games of the remaining Groups after yesterday matches settled the 8 Clubs from A to D that go through to the next stage of the tournament. Tonight two Spanish Football Clubs had Group duties that were already qualified except for FC Barcelona which was playing for the top spot of Group H something achieved after their victory, along with

Gameweek 16 Preview

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UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL RESULTS | REAL MADRID - REAL SOCIEDAD

UEFA Champions League had two Spanish Football Clubs in action tonight with their last Group match duties. Real Madrid as expected qualified as leader of Group B while Real Sociedad said goodbye last placed of Group A & without even qualifying for the Europa League.Following are the final results - scores & the goalscorers




Real Madrid won Copenhague 0 - 2 giving the Spanish Football Club 5

FIFPRO - FIFA LIST OF FORWARD CANDIDATES | 4 SPANISH LIGA PLAYERS

After releasing the list of candidates for the Goalkeeper, Defenders & Midfield positions for the "FIFPRO-FIFA Best XI Team", today it was the turn of the 15 candidates for the forward positions. Aparte from the regulars Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Ibrahimovic, Lewandowski etc , Atletico de Madrid player Diego Costa makes his first appearance. This is a quantitative lift from past seasons &

FIFA ANNOUNCE THE FINAL THREE CANDIDATES FOR GOLDEN BALL AWARD 2013

The news released by FIFA - France Football is a "no News". As expected the final three candidates up for the FIFA France Football Golden Ball Award - Best World Footballer 2013 - are Cristiano Ronaldo ( Real Madrid CF ), Franck Ribery ( Bayern Munich ) & Lionel Messi ( FC Barcelona ).



The winner will be announced in Zurich (Switzerland) on the 13th of January 2014. The Award will be given

SPANISH CUP RESULTS SUNDAY GAMES | SPANISH FOOTBALL

Spanish Cup final results of todays 5 games which concludes the 1º st leg encounters of the last 32 team phase. Here are all the scores & goalscorers.




Spanish 2º Division & Madrid Club Alcorcon hosted Liga Club Granada & lost 0 - 2. The two goals were scored in excellent fashion by Granada forward Ighalo in the 30th & 80th min. Granada with this victory has its participation in the next stage

The Second Act

As we all know, the fantasy season does not comprise 38 independent events. Medium and even long term plans need to be put in place based on the next 'x' number of games and over-reliance on the now can handcuff your team in the future. Though all teams are constructed differently and thus will encounter these periods at different times, there are also overarching factors which impact all (or at least most) teams in the same way.

Sometimes these are obvious, such as the opening of the second-wildcard transfer window or the real-life transfer window which potential opens the door to new options for our teams. On other occasions, however, the trends are tougher to spot, especially when we're in the eye of them (they are much easier to see with hindsight). We are potentially at a changing point for one of these period-changes.

Like any mostly free market, the demand for players will settle into something of an equilibrium, and for most managers the leading role in determining their level of demand is past performance (yes, if you're reading this you'll almost certainly place more emphasis on future forecasts, but we'd still be hesitant to back a player with a terrible points tally to date, no matter what his underlying data suggested).

Consider the below chart:

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Ignoring defenders and 'keepers for a second (whose ownership numbers tend to be a bit more unpredictable), we see just eight players who've amassed 50 or more points and are still owned by less than 10% of managers. 16 such players are owned by 10%+ with half of those owned by a full 20% or more. This is always going to be the case to a degree (the best players, or at least those with the best results, attract the most managers), but it seems as though we're reaching a critical mass with regards to this trend. 

Just look at this past gameweek. Nine midfielders and forwards managed to notch double figures but four of them seemed to be owned by everyone (Suarez, Yaya, Ozil and Hazard) and four were - justifiably - owned by no one (Oviedo, Delph, Agbonlahor and Dyer) with Lampard being the sole occupier of the middle ground. Throw in decent contributions from other favourites like Aguero, Ramsey and Lukaku and you're left with a situation where unless you owned all four star performers, a couple of the middle guys and notched a couple of clean sheets, you probably ended up losing ground in the overall leaderboard this week (my own team lost over 4,000 places despite what appeared on its face to be a very healthy 88 point week). 

This all conspires to a very long winded way of saying it's time to push for differentiation.

Now, before we delve into names, let's just lay down a couple of ground rules on what we really mean by this. First, differentiation just for the sake of it should not be pursued. Sometimes there are good reasons for people to be suspicious of a given player and a need to 'stand out' shouldn't interfere with the ultimate goal of points maximisation. Second, even at this relatively early stage of the season, different teams will have different appetite for differentiation based on their league position and objectives. If you've amassed a 100 point lead in your mini league, and your ultimate goal is to win that, rather than strive for the highest overall points finish, then picking Yaya Toure - who is owned by your next three closest competitors - makes more sense than if you're in the chasing pack. I would personally caution against such 'defensive' moves this early in the season, but that's something for each manager to decide.

With the customary caveats in place, let's have a look at some of the most widely owned players right now and see if we can find some reasonable alternatives. For the sake of repetition avoidance, I'll add this disclaimer here just once. These are ideas designed to give some fresh thought to what is becoming an increasingly stagnant fantasy season. I wouldn't (indeed won't ) make the majority of them and I fully understand that they will all likely involve a lot more risk than sticking with who we "know" will have future success (this in itself is a misnomer, but that's a point for another day.

Aaron Ramsey (62% owned)

The Welshman's 62% ownership number is a huge outlier in the earlier chart, though in all honesty, this number could really have peaked higher given the way he's played to date (the 'real' ownership number is much higher, of course, as that 62% is based on a denominator which includes a lot of teams who have gone untouched since GW1 and still roll out the likes of Podolski (1%), Adebayor (0.7%) and Zaha (1.3%)). Ramsey simply leads all midfielders in total points despite opening the year with a price tag of 3.0m+ less than all his closest rivals and appears to have turned the corner from 'someday prospect' to 'everyday star'. 

The model supports Ramsey's high ownership to a degree as his 61 xP ranks 3rd among midfielders (behind the surprising Gerrard and Hazard) but it also suggests that his future forecast is closer to players available for comparable prices and thus he isn't an automatic pickup. Let's filter our data to highlight a couple of options. We're looking for a player who:

• is available for close to Ramsey's price (we'll give ourselves a 1.0m variance, so a maximum of 8.3m),
• gets a sufficient number of chances per game (more than 1.0 SiB per 90 minutes),
• does something with those chances (more than 0.75 SoT per 90 minutes) without benefiting from unsustainable good fortune (SoT% of 50% or less), and
• can also contribute in the assist department (more than 1.0 CC per 90 minutes)

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There's some intrigue here for sure, with Paulinho's 1.9 SiB90 and Sigurdsson's 1.4 SoT90 jumping off the page. However, the first Spurs man seems to be taking too many ill advised shots given his 32% SoT% rate while his Icelandic teammate is hitting the target with long range efforts, but as we know, these tend to hit the back of the net with less regularity than those from close range. Mirallas is probably the safest play here given his solid returns and supporting data yet his tendency to be withdrawn early in games and a lack of explosive upside makes it really tough to part ways with Ramsey for the Belgian wide man right now. As keen as I am to suggest alternatives to Ramsey and as likely it is that he regresses in the coming weeks, no obvious one-for-one replacement is apparent. As we move into wildcard season though, alternative arrangements should certainly be considered.

Yaya Toure (38%)

Here we're looking for reliability. Yaya has about as high of a floor as you can find and can contribute solid value over virtually any stretch of games. To replace him, we're therefore looking for the below attributes:

• ability to score with some consistency (more than 0.75 SiB)
• maximises his opportunities (more than 0.75 SoT)
• strong chance at assists (more than 1.1 CC)
• plays consistently (more than 900 minutes played or return from injury will guarantee playing time)
• less than 10% ownership (if we're sacrificing his consistency we need to make gains on a lot of other managers)

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Of all the alternatives looked at today, this is probably the one that makes the most sense. Some of the best options here currently carry injury concerns so may not considered immediately (Walcott, Michu and Silva) but Coutinho looks well healed and took up some very promising positions in Sturridge's absence, behind the all conquering Suarez these past couple of weeks. Though it's a tiny sample size and too much weight shouldn't be placed on this data set, the fact that Walcott has tripled Toure's SiB90, doubled his SoT90 and doubled his CC90 suggests he could offer significant upside when healthy and should be monitored closely for signs that he's back in Wenger's first team plans. Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't draw some attention to Frank Lampard who in many ways looks exactly like Yaya Toure, just with a lower G/SoT rate. Lampard's currently sits at 33% versus a 42% career rate while the Ivorian's is hovering around 64% compared to a career rate of 30%. If it's reliability you desire, it seems that Lampard should be able to fill a similar role for 2.0m less and with a quarter as many managers sharing in your spoils.

Luis Suarez (39%) / Sergio Aguero (33%)

We're not looking for much here. We just need someone who is averaging over three shots a game, with two on target and . . . ok we can stop now because we've already filtered the entire league. Only five other regular starters (Lukaku, Sturridge, van Persie, Grioud and Remy) are able to average as many SiB as this pair have averaged SoT and none of that group come close to boasting the assist potential of this elite duo. I hate the label "must own" and for the most part this has been wrongly attributed to various players over the years but right now the only real argument against owning this duo is one of value as you could go with a Lukaku-Giroud-Remy trio and save at least 4.0m, but then it isn't really clear who you'd then spend that surplus on. The return from injury of Benteke, Sturridge and van Persie will at least swell the pool of players who could threaten this pair's dominance but of of now, the only reason to look elsewhere would be injury to either of these forwards.

Olivier Giroud (34%)

Given what we've said about Suarez and Aguero above, Giroud is essentially competing with every other forward in the league for the right to be your third front man. Though Giroud does offer some assist potential, we can't be too choosy as we slide down the price list, so to fill this role we're merely looking for a player who:

• offers a consistent goal threat (over two SiB per 90 minutes),
• costs the same or less than Giroud (with Suarez and Aguero we're already in danger of committing too much cash to our front men with Giroud),
• is owned by less than 12% managers (that cut off is clearly fixed so I can include Benteke
• offers some threat of assists (more than 1.0 CC per 90 minutes)

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Giroud has enjoyed a great season to date but all of the above options either strong differentiation potential, cost savings, or both, and given Arsenal's fixtures in the immediate future, this is one move that could be considered for sooner rather than later.

Ross Barkley (28%)

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I would imagine a fair number of Barkley's owners still hold him due to more pressing issues in their teams eating up weekly transfers, but still, he's held by an awful lot of managers and with wildcard season approaching, we should be considering everyone's place in our respective squads. There are several options to really like here with Arnautovic particularly catching the eye. The Stoke man has taken a very healthy share of shots given his price bracket, even if the number of target somewhat disappoints. However, his 20% SoT% rate is well below the 33% rate he posted in the Bundesliga while at Bremen and so if that number starts to track back towards his expected average, it should give him a profile to far exceed the somewhat mediocre prospects of the majority of his peers. Digging deeper we have Redmond who is enjoying his prolonged run in the Norwich side following their rash of injuries, and even deeper we have the highly rated Jonny Williams who has finally returned for Palace and could offer intriguing value at just 4.3m. In short, this is a category with a good number of alternatives and if you've transfers to spare, Barkley's waning fortunes should really be taken notice of.

SPANISH CUP RESULTS SATURDAY | SPANISH FOOTBALL

SPANISH CUP continued today with another 5 matches scheduled. Here are all the final results along with all the goalscorers.




Spanish 2º B Division Club Sant Andreu hosted the current Spanish Cup Champions & Liga Club Atletico de Madrid & lost 0 - 4. The visitors were as intense & firm as if this was a Liga match due to the competitive philosophy of Coach Simeone. The goals came in the

REAL MADRID DI MARIA TO LEAVE FOR MONACO ?

Months back the Argentine International & Real Madrid player Angel Di Maria was praised for his determination to stay at the Spanish Football Club even though his regularity was in question. The arrival of Gareth Bale has "displaced" some players with German Ozil taking the decision of going to Arsenal to maintain his playing time. Di Maria months back took the decision to stay at Real Madrid & "

SPANISH CUP RESULTS | SPANISH FOOTBALL

Today began the matches of the last 32 Clubs in the SPANISH CUP were the Liga Clubs make their appearance. The 1ºst leg games fixture is divided into three days with more Spanish Cup games tomorrow - Saturday - & Sunday. Here are tonights Spanish Cup results with all the goalscorers.




Lleida lost 1 - 2 to Real Betis. The visitors reacted after the Club sacked early in the week their Coach Pepe

FIFPRO BEST XI TEAM 2013 MIDFIELDERS CANDIDATES LIST | 5 SPANIARDS

There are 5 Spaniards in the list of 15 midfield candidates to make up the FIFPRO-FIFA XI 2013 team. Few days back the Goalkeeping candidates were release & today it was the turn of the midfielders voted by all the World Football Professionals ( i.e. by their peers ).

List of candidates:
- Francisco Alarcón Isco (Spain, Málaga CF / Real Madrid CF)
- Xabi Alonso (Spain, Real Madrid CF)
- Gareth

SPAIN IN GROUP B WITH HOLLAND, CHILE & AUSTRALIA | WORLD CUP 2014 BRAZIL

The current FIFA World Champions SPAIN knows which Football Nations will be their Group rivals in next years World Cup 2014 to be held in Brazil after the celebration of the draws in Salvador ( Brazil ).Spain will head Group B with Holland , Chile & Australia all joining in what is one of the more difficult Groups of the tournament. The other "death Group" is D with Uruguay, Costa Rica, England

FOOTBALL - SOCCER | BEST 11 OF 2013 | READERS CHOICE

As 2013 "races" to its end & towards the New Year, so do the lists of "Best of " sprout about throughout the media & other reference sources. With Football its the same & fans, websurfers, readers & online media put up surveys, get together their experts into a panel & some may even stick a finger up in the air. 

This last is not the case with Spanish Sports paper "Marca" which have called onto

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SPECULATION PUTS BORUSSIA GUNDOGAN CLOSE TO REAL MADRID

The news out of Germany & from Borussia Dortmund is concern & speculation about the future of midfielder Ilkay Gundogan. The player ends contract with Dortmund in 2015 & there has been no movement by the player to want to renew his contract with the German Club. Local media speculate with this as a "signal" & that the future of the German International may be at Spanish Football Club Real Madrid.

UEFA TEAM OF THE YEAR 2013 | 9 CANDIDATES SPANISH OR IN SPANISH LIGA

UEFA has made public its 40 candidates for the UEFA Team of the Year 2013. The voting takes place via the UEFA website where users & readers can place their votes. 
The selected 40 players had their performance in their domestic Leagues & with their National Teams taken into account to be nominated. The UEFA XI will keep the voting open until the 9th of January 2014. The player which receives the

SPANISH FOOTBALL LEADING GOALSCORER - GOALKEEPER AFTER ROUND 15 OF LIGA

The Spanish Football League - Liga - has just concluded Round 15 & this weekend has Spanish Cup matches. Good moment to have a look at which player is currently the Spanish League leading goalscorer & which goalkeeper has stopped the most goals.




In the race for the "El Pichichi" - name given to the Spanish Liga maximum goalscorer - Real Madrid forward Cristiano Ronaldo currently leads after

THE RETURN OF KARIM BENZEMA ¿FOR HOW LONG?

Real Madrid & French International forward Karim Benzema is back in the news. The reasons are all positive as the player seems to have regained form after a terrible start to the season. So troubling was his "kick off" to the season that the Frenchman lost his place in the National Team & was virtually "on sale" at Real Madrid. 

One could say weeks back that Benzema could not score even at an

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VICTOR VALDES - IKER CASILLAS CANDIDATES FIFA FIFPRO WORLD XI

The candidates in the Goalkeeping category have been released for the FIFA FIFPro World XI to be announced on the 13th of January 2014. Two Spanish Football Players are on the list, FC Barcelona Victor Valdes & Real Madrid Iker Casillas. 




The other three candidates are Neuer of Bayern Munich, Buffon of Juventus & Petr Chech of Chelsea FC.The voters are all the World Football Professionals

SPANISH FOOTBALL NEWS | REAL BETIS SACKS COACH PEPE MEL FOR JUAN CARLOS GARRIDO

Cruel game Football. Sweet when your up there & things are going fine, but ruthless when the results do not come & luck leaves you through the back door.Current last placed on the Spanish Liga classification table Real Betis has taken & executed a hard decision. The Spanish Football Club has fired its Coach Pepe Mel after Directives thought that if they were to avoid relegation a change of course

GARETH BALE FIRST HAT-TRICK WITH REAL MADRID

Been out of town this weekend & have´nt had a chance to do - & will not do this Round 15 - the regular Liga updates or summary. If you wish to know details of all the final scores & goalscorers there is an interesting widget on the right hand side that can help you out

Mentioned all this I did manage to catch a few matches via TV, Atletico de Madrid of course & caught the 4-0 performance &

THE LEGS OF CRISTIANO RONALDO VALUED AT 140M US$ - 103M € | REAL MADRID

According to "Economia & Negocios" - a Spanish Online Financial source - the value of the legs of Real Madrid player is 140M US$ ( or 103M€ ). The Spanish Football Club Real Madrid has renewed its "insurance policy" & has lifted the value of the legs of Cristiano Roanldo 3% more than the last policy.



In case of a severe & serious injury that would risk the "future" of the Portuguese star Real

SERGIO RAMOS FOR 65M€ | REAL MADRID OPEN TO OFFERS

Spanish Sports daily "AS" has picked up & put on their cover the story that came out of another media source - a National Sports late-night radio - that Real Madrid Central Defender Sergio Ramos has a serious fall-out with President Florentino Perez. The relationship is said to be deteriorated to the extent that if another Club was to offer around 65M€ Real Madrid would let him go. 

True or

SPANISH FOOTBALL CLUBS | EUROPA LEAGUE GAMES RESULTS

Europa League Group action tonight with three Spanish Football Clubs - Real Betis, Sevilla FC & Valencia CF - all in action. Here is a summary of the main events, the final score-results & all the goalscorers




French Club Lyon defeated "troubled" Real Betis 1 - 0 in their Group I game. The Spanish Football Club continues with its low form transferred on from the domestic competition but still

FIFA RANKINGS NOV 2013 | SPAIN Nº1

FIFA has released its monthly ranking. Here is the Top 10 Football Nations for November 2013:

1. Spain 1507 pts

2. Germany 1318

3. Argentina 1251

4. Colombia 1200

5. Portugal 1172

6. Uruguay 1132

7. Italy 1120

8. Switzerland 1113

9. Holland 1106

10. Brazil 1102




Spain continues in the Nº1 spot even though the team lost to South Africa in their last Friendly International match. There

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UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL RESULTS | REAL SOCIEDAD - REAL MADRID GAMES

UEFA Champions League Group matches continued tonight with Spanish Football Clubs Real Sociadad & Real Madrid with their respective matches. Bad news away in the Ukraine for Real Sociedad & good news for Real Madrid with their home duty. Here is a brief summary of events, the final results-scores & all the goalscorers.




Ukrainian Club Shakhtar Donetsk won 4 - 0 Real Sociedad in their Group A

WORLD SOCCER | MESSI THE MOST VALUABLE ( MONEY ) PLAYER IN BRAZIL 2014

Once the 32 Nations were determined which will participate in the upcoming 2014 FIFA World Cup Final in Brazil, the financial firm "Pluri Consultancy" asked itself: what is the monetary value of each the 732 players that will be present & participating in Brazil 2014?The results are no surprise, FC Barcelona player Lionel Messi is a current monetary value of 139,6€ putting the Argentine in the

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP RESULTS | ATLETICO DE MADRID - FC BARCELONA

UEFA Champions League Group matches this Tuesday with Spanish Football Clubs Atletico de Madrid & FC Barcelona in action. Both Spanish Teams are secure for the next stage & have the role of deciding how the rest of the Clubs in their Groups fair especially for the important second place. Here are the final scores-results & all the goalscorers.




Russian Club Zenit St Petersburg hosted Atletico

AC MILAN INTERESTED IN ATLETICO DE MADRID MIDFIELDER KOKE

News out from Barcelona based Spanish Sports daily "Mundo Deportivo" announces the firm interest from Italian Club AC Milan for Spanish International & Atletico de Madrid midfielder KOKE. The 21 year old has exploded onto the Football scene under Coach Simeone to become a crucial element of the Atletico team.



According the news source AC Milan has already transmitted to the players

REAL MADRID TO LOAN ALVARO MORATA TO TOTTENHAM HOTSPURS ?

The tough & long negotiations between Real Madrid & English Premier Club Tottenham Hotspurs build relationships. In the end the "wheeling & dealing" makes friends between the Directives of both Clubs which later turn into benefits & deals.News from Spanish daily "Gazeta" reports that Real Madrid & Spanish U-21 International Alvaro Morata forward will be a "Winter Transfer Market" addition for

SPANISH FOOTBALL RESULTS | ROUND 14 LIGA SATURDAY MATCH RESULTS

Spanish Football returned with Round 14 Liga action with games packed full of goals. Here is a brief summary of the main events, all the final results - scores & the goalscorers.




Valladolid played Osasuna on Friday night & went down 0 - 1 to the late 84th min goal from Oier. The match was fairly linear without much great moments with both sides not being about to find many chances. Valladolid

LIONEL MESSI TO LEAVE FC BARCELONA AT THE END OF THE SEASON ?

Has World Soccer star Lionel Messi decided to leave FC Barcelona next season? 

Before getting into the "nitty-gritty" lets set some things beforehand firmly in place. The news comes from a FIFA Agent who is more an eccentric TV personality who appears in a late night popular national Football TV show which at times goes beyond the orthodox. Apart from hundreds of thousand TV spectators receiving

SPANISH FOOTBALL FLASHBACK | HISTORIC PICTURE OF SPAIN 11 AGAINST MALTA 12 - 1 RESULT

Relatively quite on the Spanish Football News front today. All the media is either shouting for Cristiano Ronaldo to be given the FIFA Golden Ball, or updating on all the FC Barcelona injuries like Messi, Alves & Valdes, speculating on the substitute player for injured Real Madrid midfielder Khedira, commenting on the "horrific" Messi jacket at his European Golden Boot presentation or heating up

LIONEL MESSI "EUROPEAN GOLDEN BALL AWARD" & THAT JACKET

FC Barcelona & Argentine International Football Player Lionel Messi was handed the "European Golden Boot 2012-2013" in the city of Barcelona. The numbers are impressive: 46 goals in 32 games at an average of 1,43 in the Spanish Football League - La Liga. The Award is his third, with his previous "Boots" being given in season 2009-2010 ( 34 goals ) & 2011-2012 ( 50 goals ).




The Barça star

SOUTH AFRICA 1 SPAIN 0 | INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY MATCH RESULT

The current World Champions Spain lost 1 - 0 to South Africa in their Friendly International match played tonight. A well deserved victory for the South Africans who were more motivated, more enthusiastic & more willing to fight the 90 minutes for a prestigious victory. 




Spain possibly put forward their worst match in a long time. Perhaps its was the "sweet memories" of 2010, the nostalgic "

ALBANIA 0 SPAIN 2 | U-21 EURO GROUP QUALIFIER

The Spanish Football U-21 National Team travelled to Albania for their Group match qualifier for the 2015 European Championships. The final result a 0 - 2 victory for Spain which virtually assures them a place in the Euro U-21 Finals & keeps them top of their Group with 18 points, that is, 6 straight victories to date.  



The games was not easy at all for Spain. Albania put up a rough & sticky

XAVI HERNANDEZ | THE MOST AWARDED PLAYER IN SPANISH FOOTBALL HISTORY

Who is the current - & active - Football Player with most Titles in Spanish Football History?

Until recently it was Real Madrid legendary winger Francisco Gento with 24 Titles, but the the recent Spanish Super Cup Title to FC Barcelona ( over Atletico de Madrid ) at the start of the season made midfielder Xavi Hernandez the most awarded player in Spanish Football. The FC Barcelona player has

MANCHESTER CITY EYES REAL MADRID SERGIO RAMOS FOR NEXT SUMMER ?

The news piece coming up is not new & is recurring. From England & its Press ("Sunday People") comes the news that Manchester City is interested in the services of Real Madrid & Spanish International Defender Sergio Ramos. It is also written that Manchester City will be willing to put forward a first offer of around 38M€ for next summer.



Announced this there are other Clubs doing the "

EQUATORIAL GUINEA 1 SPAIN 2 | INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY MATCH RESULT

A festive atmosphere for the Spanish Football National Team which played Equatorial Guinea in an International Friendly tonight. It was a celebration for the locals as the World Champions visited an ex-Spanish colony & the historical ties helped with the off-field friendliness & joy while on-field the locals were "hard" at times. The final result was a 1 - 2 win for Spain which could ( & should )

Getting defensive

Attack-minded defenders have long been considered one of the key ingredients to a successful fantasy team, and while I may personally suggest this quest is sometimes overpursued, there's no arguing with the overall premise that such a player can be extremely valuable.

Two issues arise though.

First, managers tend to overvalue this threat, paying huge premiums which simply cannot be justified. The most obvious example of this in recent times has been Leighton Baines (who has rarely justified the huge premium required to get him) though we've seen similar trends in the past with the likes of Thomas Vermaelen, Nemandja Vidic and even Joleon Lescott.

Second, managers tend to overvalue past success, which can be ill advised at the best of times but is particularly dangerous with defenders. With a few notable exceptions, defenders tend to enjoy limited chances to earn points and the sample sizes involved are generally very small. Thus, a player with the odd goal coming from a handful of shots is no more likely to score again than any number of comparative players who haven't yet registered a goal this season. Of course, we're not saying those "unlucky" few are any more likely either, but the latter are almost certainly held by fewer managers and probably come with a lower price and thus deserve our attention.

The chart below can be sorted by team and plots a player's price against his expected points purely from attacking means (xP). We're trying to identify players whose production exceeds or matches those available in his price bracket and this is best done on a team by team basis (as otherwise you are trying to compare too many variables at once). Once you identify the 'best' options from each team, you can then move on to comparing them all considering other factors.

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A note on expected points. In the model, two bonus points are awarded for each goal, based on a approximate study of how these are generally handed out. Hence, if a player has racked up enough shots to score exactly one goal, his xP would be eight rather than the six you might expect.

Arsenal
Sagna and Mertesacker have produced the same attacking points to date with the Frenchman ahead by a couple of points in xP. Given this fact alongside Mertesacker's much higher ownership number (15% vs 1%) and Sagna's slight discount, Sagna looks like the better pick if you were choosing one today, though Mertesacker owners shouldn't feel overly rushed to move him.

Aston Villa
There's really nothing to see here and if you want to invest in this back line you should do so based on playing time and price tag. That could lead one to settle on Baker given his 3.9m price, assuming you are confident on him holding off the challenge of Clark when Luna resumes his left back duties. This isn't a great defense but they've been reasonably good both at home (-1% SiB +/-) and away (-3%), but don't expect to get much on the attacking side of the pitch from your Villains.

Cardiff
Caulker is the only defensive player to notch any points, and coupling that with his name recognition leads to a potentially dangerous situation. Four total attempts, with two on target strongly suggests that his two goal haul to date has been fortuitous and thus that 0.9m premium over Ben Turner looks unjustified.

Chelsea
Ivanovic leads all defenders in xP to date with a very impressive 17 and managers have done well to recognise this, with a 25% ownership already racked up. With a risk rating of 1.2, he looks as safe as anyone in this team and the other 25% of managers who currently own Terry, or particularly Cole and Luiz, should strongly consider making a move to Ivanovic next time they have a spare transfer (or use their wildcard).

Crystal Palace
Delaney owns a slight advantage in xP here, but not enough to justify his higher price tag. If you are interested in this defense (hot tip: you shouldn't be) then Moxey - who boasts a perfect risk rating of 1.0 - is your man.

Everton
To date, this one is a no brainer. Coleman trails Baines in actual points by five but that total is far from enough to justify the extra 2.2m required outlay. Add in the fact that Coleman actually tops Baines in xP and you see that the young Irishman should be the pick here. One caveat which the model doesn't account for is Baines' threat from the spot but it's highly unlikely that Everton will earn enough spot kicks for Baines to deliver superior value to his cheaper colleague. The 17% of owners still holding Jagielka - who offers a reasonable though unexciting attacking threat - should consider a move to Coleman when re-shuffling their pack.

Fulham
You really don't want to touch this entire team right now and there's nothing here to change that well reasoned opinion. Riether enjoys a marginal advantage in the attacking threat column but is well overpriced at 5.0m, even if he does carry a low risk rating. Just don't bother, please.

Hull
Davies boasts by far the best xP and actual points to date but seeing as you're surely only employing a Hull defender as a minimum price bench filler, 4.6m seems too steep a price to pay for only a marginal attacking advantage. This isn't a bad defense (SiB +/- of -2% at home and away) and they certainly hold value as 5th defender types but I'd personally lean towards one of the 4.0m options with Rosenoir looking nicely settled in this lineup at right back with Elmohamady moving further upfield.

Liverpool
Glen Johnson has been the best attacking threat to date, yet hasn't been rewarded for his efforts so far. Purely on this added threat, he doesn't appear to justify the extra cost, but given his added security in the first team (he's yet to be benched and his risk rating is only impacted by injuries) it might just be worth looking at Johnson if you either don't have Mignolet or want to double down on this useful unit. If Cissokho really locks down that left back spot it becomes arguable that Johnson's superiority in xP is insufficient to justify the extra 0.7m outlay but for now the Englishman just about holds the edge.

Man City
Not unexpectedly, Kolarov leads this team in xP yet - again, as expected - it's his risk factor (2.8) which renders him very hard to own unless your team budget has swelled to the point when you can routinely sit a 5.3m player. Even then it would be hard to own him as you're never quite sure who will start but if you feel you have a good read on Pellegrini's team selections, it's hard to argue with Kolarov's upside. Elsewhere no one really excels and you're faced with a contest between Nastasic and Zabaleta who are closely matched in terms of risk factor and attacking points potential.

Man Utd
Purely on attacking threat, Evra is just about worth the extra expense over his cheaper colleagues, but when you factor in his risk rating, he becomes even more attractive. Jones' occasional deployment in midfield has been something of a non-issue to date with the utility man failing to offer much going forward even when deployed further upfield. At 0.5m cheaper than Evra he's a tempting proposition though with Rafael on the mend to vulture a large slice of the right back minutes, the ever reliable Frenchman remains a solid investment.

Newcastle
Putting this week's poorly timed suspension aside (the Magpies get Norwich at home next), Debuchy is the clear pick here and is one of the more extreme outliers in this piece. He enjoys a perfect risk rating, leads the team in actual attacking points which are totally supported by his xP, yet he's owned by just 1% of owners, only good for 3rd on his own team. This isn't a great defense so if you're planning on benching a Newcastle player most weeks then perhaps Yanga-Mbiwa at 4.4m makes some sense, but if you plan on starting him, Debuchy's high floor and ceiling make him a useful pickup.

Norwich
No one really stands out here and thus it seems prudent to defer to risk rating rather than attacking potential, which would point us towards Turner as the best investment here. Whittaker's owners - presumably not paying attention or putting out other fires - should obviously look to divest with their man offering neither security nor upside.

Southampton
Lovren's 11 attacking points are nice, but his price is getting dangerously high and if you're looking to buy now, you're too late. Clyne should be a consideration given his significantly lower price tag and increasing security (he's played every game since GW4), ahead of Shaw who seems to face a more sustained threat from Fox. At 5.4m, Fonte might be the 'Goldilocks' option with a nice balance of security, price and upside, though if pushed I would personally lean towards the potential value of Clyne.

Stoke
Huth and Shawcross just about justify their half million premium over Cameron and Pieters, though it's probably close enough that you wouldn't rush to make a move if you owned either of the full backs. Fans of differentiation will want to note Huth's 2% ownership versus Shawcross' 10%.

Sunderland
Bardsley's heroics this past weekend catapult him atop these rankings, yet his risk rating suggests he's all but impossible to buy into. Sunderland have been a very solid defensive unit at home and there's room to add a Mackem as a 4th / 5th rotation type defender, yet it's hard to really pinpoint anyone who offers too much excitement. Looking purely at this team, O'Shea's low risk profile looks appealing, but higher upside can be found on other teams in his price bracket and thus if you want to buy in, you might need to take a calculated risk that Brown or Bardsley can lock down their places at a reduced cost.

Swansea
Chico's position on this chart will surprise many (include your humble blogger) as Davies and Rangel often impress going forward for Laudrup's team. This isn't the solid unit we saw for much of the last couple of seasons, but at 5.0m Chico's attacking upside, playing time and at least some promise of defensive value make him an intriguing option.

Tottenham
This one isn't so much obvious who we should pick as much as who we shouldn't. At 7.2m Vertonghen is valued as a defensive player who contributes big time attacking scores on a regular basis yet he's not managed to achieve that in either the actual (3) or xP (5) columns. He's essentially offered the same profile as Dawson at a 1.8m premium which is essentially the same as choosing a 5.4m scrub over Rickie Lambert.

West Brom
With Jones' injury McAuley's overall profile now looks quite promising and he just about deserves consideration despite some discomfort in paying 5.4m for him. West Brom have a good defense though, especially at home (-16% SiB +/-) and McAuley offers a sufficient upgrade over his peers to make that 0.5m worthwhile.

West Ham
Reid leads the team in xP and ownership (6%) but it doesn't look like the former justifies the latter. We saw plenty of early turnover in this team which has limited the risk rating of some players, but with Rat and Tomkins playing the last six games, they can probably be considered to be reasonably safe in Allardyce's first team and thus their lower price tags make them more attractive compared to the comparatively pricey Reid. Collins - who has yet to be voluntarily benched - looks to be the best value of all, assuming he can put his injuries woes behind him for a sustained period, though be forewarned that you are signing up for very little attacking threat.

EURO U 21 GROUP 4 MATCH RESULT | BOSNIA 1 SPAIN 6

The Spanish U-21 Football National Team maintains its dominance of Group 4 with an overpowering 1 - 6 victory over. Five straight wins with 20 goals in favour & only 5 against. 




Here are all the goals & goalscorers:


Prcic 15th min 1 - 0
Barisic own goal 33rd min 1-1
Oliver 44th min 1-2
Morata 45th min penalty 1 - 3
Muniain 61st min 1 - 4
Oliver 64th min 1 -5
Deulofeu penalty 1 - 6


Bosnia

VICTOR VALDES | CURRENT MOST EFFECTIVE GOALKEEPER IN SPANISH FOOTBALL

FC Barcelona not only loses for next season a home grown modern Club "legend" but possibly the Best inform goalkeeper currently in World Football. Victor Valdes has decided to leave FC Barcelona for new adventures as he currently moves towards a possible amazing 6th "Zamora Award" ( the least scored goalkeeper in Spanish Football).




Spanish Sports paper based in the city of Barcelona, "Sport"

SPAIN FOOTBALL TEAM PRESENTS NEW UNIFORM | MARKETING | FINANCE | POLITICS

The Spanish Football Federation presented today to a packed media audience the "new" uniform that the Spanish Football National Team will wear in the upcoming FIFA World Cup to be held in Brazil 2014. It´s an all red uniform which has been "sold" as a good luck omen for the current double European ( 2008/2012) & World Champions (2010) as Spain will attempt to make Football History if they manage

FC BARCELONA | LIONEL MESSI INJURY, THEORIES & RECOVERY

Thanks to Spanish Sports paper "Marca" & "Elisa Martin" for her fantastic infograph in reference to FC Barcelona & Argentina International star Lionel Messi, we have a clearer picture of all the injuries that the players has had & is currently suffering.

The left leg muscle tear during last weekend Liga game will put Messi off the field between 6 - 8 weeks. Worrying for Barça & fans as Messi is

SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAM | LLORENTE & BARTRA REPLACE CESC & COSTA

The past weekend of Spanish Football has caused some important injuries which has effected some National Teams with International duties coming up this week. The most talked about is FC Barcelona star Lionel Messi who could be out for up to 10 weeks from playing. Severe blow to Barça.The other talked about injuries are Cesc Fabregas & Diego Costa which have a direct impact on the Spanish Football

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SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 13 SUNDAY GAMES RESULTS

Four Spanish Football matches today - tonight which concludes Round 13 of Liga. Here is brief summary, with all the final scores - results & goalscorers. 




RCD Espanyol & Sevilla FC played an intense match, very rapid & with goals. The final result was a 1 - 3 victory to Sevilla FC, a much needed win for the visitors as things are torrid down at Seville. The first goal was for Sevilla with

SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 13 SATURDAY GAMES RESULTS

Spanish Football games played yesterday & today as part of Round 13 of Liga. Here is a brief summary of the main events, the final scores-results & all the goalscorers.





Granada won Malaga FC 3 -1 on Friday Night  & took the three points thanks to the Hat-Trick by El Arabi. Granada took advantage of numerous defensive errors that Malaga Coach Bernd Schuster cannot be happy at all about & will

SPANISH CUP DRAW 2013 - 2014 | TEAM MATCH-UPS & DATES

The business end of the Spanish Cup 2013 - 2014 was given its "road map" with the team match-ups drawn today in Madrid. The main dates are :

Home & away : 6,7,8 December - 18th December 2013
Last 16 teams : 8th y 16th January 2014
Q/Finals : 22nd y 29th January 2014
Semi finals : 5th y 12th Febuary 2014
Final : 19th of April



courtesy of marca.com


The big favourites Real Madrid & FC

Will some players always underachieve?

We had an interesting comment from a reader this week regarding the visualization posted plotting actual points with expected points. My proposition was that the players whose xP trailed their actual points by a distance were likely undervalued by the market, and while we wouldn't suggest they will somehow "make up" those points left on the table to date, we would expect their production to take an uptick assuming they continue to get chances and playing time at a relatively consistent rate. The reader had a different view:

"When I look at this chart I don't see underperformers or overperformers all I see is players on form who are capitalising on their chances (Ramsey and Rooney) and players who are of such quality that they will always out perform the normal (Aguero and Yaya) . . . I believe that if you reconstructed this table after xmas with a start date of tomorrow then the same players would occupy the two sides."

It's a fair proposition and one I wanted to examine further. I think there's a general discomfort with the idea of regressing players' production to the mean as it seems to suggest they are all created equally. A couple of responses to that:

1. For conversion rates which appear to be repeatable year on year, such as shot on target percentage (SoT%), we regress players to their own historical rates (where available). This means that if we say Olivier Giroud has an unsustainable SoT%, we're not saying his is too high compared with Danny Graham or Frazier Campbell, we're saying it's way above his own historic rate.
2. For conversion rates where we do regress to a league average (or at least use league average in a weighted average), it's because I haven't seen any evidence that players can consistently perform above the average in that given rate. The classic example is goals per shot on target (G/SoT) which tends to regress close to a mean for most players, with only a couple exceeding the average for more than a couple of years in a row (and that would be expected even if we were talking about a totally random event). There might be some repeatability there, but it's a lot less than most would expect based on purely on notions like "form", "class" or being "clinical".

The good news is that this is fairly easy to test. Below we've plotted players' +/- score as of this week (which shows the difference between their actual and expected points with a positive score meaning their expected exceeds their actual) against the same metric from the midway point of last season. I picked that point in time based on the reader comment about Christmas but I'm fairly confident a similar conclusion could be drawn from pretty much any two comparable samples:

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The first observation is that we see very little correlation from year to year. 10 players outperformed their points total last season by at least 10 points, yet only one of these (Podolski) has managed to outperform his total to date by even 5 points. Similarly, eight players underperformed their underlying stats by 10 or more points last season, and of these two (Lambert and Cisse) have once again failed to match their live up to expectations. On the flip side we've seen players like Aguero, Rooney, Lallana, Suarez, Michu, Walters and Fellaini benefit or suffer from huge reversals in fortune over the two samples.

One of the things I love about sports writing is that it can be a gateway into so many interesting subjects, and while I'm not learned enough to talk about most of them here, I would venture that there is an element of bias regarding the way we judge the above. When a player like Ramsey explodes in a small sample, we tend to quickly absorb that information into our collective psyche and it becomes the new self evident truth that he is a great player (despite several seasons of reasonable yet unspectacular play, at least from a fantasy perspective). We then place too much weight on these recent events, much like how people stop swimming after a shark attack, despite the fact there are countless things more likely to really kill them that they ignore every day. I believe the term for this specific type of bias is referred to as the availability heuristic.

In the chart we see Aguero has the second highest +/- score for 2013 and one could rationalise that being due to his superior skill and quality teammates. Indeed, that's possibly true to a point. However, he had those very same skills and most of the teammates last year too, yet was actually one of the biggest underperformers last year, serving as a constant source of frustration for his owners. Or take van Persie. Last year he ascended to a new level and was casually thrown into conversations alongside the best in the world, and thus the fact he outperformed his xP by a full 13 points through half a year could be discounted as him simply being better than everyone else. Fast forward 10 months and we have a player who has only just caught up to his xP total for the year, having suffered through some bad luck these past couple of months.

As a final check, the colour coding relates to the players' team's league position ranging from 1st (green) to last (red). I wondered if we'd tend to see players from the better teams show an ability to repeat positive seasons as they benefit from more quality chances per game. I guess this works to a degree in that those in the bottom left quadrant generally play for better teams, yet there's not enough here to really draw any solid conclusions.

It's always good to challenge forecasts like the ones you find in these pages - especially the ones found in these pages! - but caution should also be exercised when dismissing data which contradicts our current view of the game. There are certainly aspects of a player's game which can consistently be above average (SoT% for one) but others seem far less repeatable. The current iteration of the model adjusts for these differences and thus that's why we're going to see turnover in the players who over or underachieve expectations. 

SPANISH FOOTBALL TEAMS | EUROPA LEAGUE RESULTS - SCORES

EUROPA LEAGUE action tonight with three Spanish Football Clubs scheduled for their respective Group matches. Here are the final results-scores & all the goalscorers.




Valencia CF managed to get a 2- 3 win away at St.Gallen & in the process secure their participation in the next stage of the tournament. Even match which was decided in the end by young Valencia midfielder Sergio Canales with his

SPANISH FOOTBALL NATIONAL TEAM | LIST OF 23 PLAYERS FOR UPCOMING FRIENDLY INTERNATIONALS

Spanish Football National Team Coach & Selector Vicente Del Bosque handed in this afternoon his list of 23 players called up for the upcoming Friendly Internationals against Equatorial Guinea (16th of Nov.) & South Africa ( 19th of Nov.).
The main novelty was the call up of Atletico de Madrid Brazilian-Spanish forward Diego Costa. The player has played two Internationals for Brazil, but having

Points versus expected points

The below chart is something I've posted before and am tweaking for the new website so I thought I should post it now and get your feedback while also hopefully providing a quick view to identifying some players to research further:

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UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RESULTS | ATLETICO DE MADRID - FC BARCELONA GROUP GAME SCORES

UEFA Champions League tonight for the two remaining Spanish Football Clubs which were scheduled to play their Group games - Atletico de Madrid & FC Barcelona - with each gaining positive results & securing their place in the next stage of the tournament. Here are the final results - scores & all the goalscorers.




Atletico de Madrid won 4 - 0 Austria Vienna & secured the top spot of Group G &

CRISTIANO RONALDO GETS EUROPEAN FOOTBALL RECORDS & GIVES THEM TO REAL MADRID

There is no doubt that Portuguese International & Real Madrid forward Cristiano Ronaldo is perhaps at his best level of his entire career in Football. The player is an authentic goal scoring machine both in Spanish Liga & in European competition. Last nights exhibition in Champions League against Juventus not only gave Ronaldo a goal but in doing so gave the player two individual records in

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RESULTS | REAL MADRID - REAL SOCIEDAD GROUP GAMES

UEFA Champions League action tonight with two Spanish Football Clubs - Real Madrid & Real Sociedad - with Group match duties. Here is a brief summary of the main events, the final results - scores & all the goalscorers.




It was a virtual final for Juventus as they needed at least not to lose & thus stay in touch in the Champions League tournament, while Real Madrid needed at least a draw to

SPANISH FOOTBALL | NEXT STOP FOR LEWANDOWSKI ?

The Barcelona based Sports press has been giving Borussia Dortmund Polish International Forward Lewandowski plenty of attention these days. According to the local press sources Barça Coach Martino has asked for a "pure Striker" - a Number 9 - for the upcoming Winter Transfer Market & Lewandowski maybe the main target. Added to this the speculated transfer price is said by Barcelona media to be

REAL MADRID - REAL SOCIEDAD | UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE MATCH PREVIEWS - POSSIBLE LINE-UPS

UEFA Champions League Group games commence tonight with two Spanish Football Clubs in action: Real Madrid & Real Sociedad. As habitual Spanish Sports paper "Sport" elaborate info-graphs with pre-match info & their idea of a possible starting 11 team line-up.




Real Madrid travel to Turin to play Juventus. Attractive match beforehand were the Italians are taking this as a final. They need to win

SPANISH FOOTBALL | LIGA | ROUND 12 MONDAY NIGHT GAME RESULT

Spanish Football tonight with the last game of Liga Round 12 played. The teams were Elche & Villarreal & after 90 mins of intense & entertaining Football the final result was 0 - 1 . Both teams tried hard all night & worked up their opportunities, all that failed was the definition & of course there was the sharp reflexes of the goalkeepers. But the surprise came when everyone was packing up to